Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices: a statistical approach
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Chichester [u.a.]
Wiley
2006
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XI, 178 S. zahlr. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 047005753X 9780470057537 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices |b a statistical approach |c Rafał Weron |
| 264 | 1 | |a Chichester [u.a.] |b Wiley |c 2006 | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Electric power consumption |x Forecasting |x Statistical methods | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Electric utilities |x Rates |x Forecasting |x Statistical methods | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Electric power consumption |x Forecasting |x Statistical methods |v Case studies | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Electric utilities |x Rates |x Forecasting |x Statistical methods |v Case studies | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | ________________________________ Contents __________________________________________
Preface ix
Acknowledgments xiii
1 Complex Electricity Markets 1
1.1 Liberalization 1
1.2 The Marketplace 3
1.2.1 Power Pools and Power Exchanges 3
1.2.2 Nodal and Zonal Pricing 6
1.2.3 Market Structure 7
1.2.4 Traded Products 7
1.3 Europe 9
1.3.1 The England and Wales Electricity Market 9
1.3.2 The Nordic Market 11
1.3.3 Price Setting at Nord Pool 11
1.3.4 Continental Europe 13
1.4 North America 18
1.4.1 PJM Interconnection 19
1.4.2 California and the Electricity Crisis 20
1.4.3 Alberta and Ontario 21
1.5 Australia and New Zealand 22
1.6 Summary 23
1.7 Further Reading 23
2 Stylized Facts of Electricity Loads and Prices 25
2.1 Introduction 25
2.2 Price Spikes 25
2.2.1 Case Study: The June 1998 Cinergy Price Spike 28
2.2.2 When Supply Meets Demand 29
2.2.3 What is Causing the Spikes? 32
2.2.4 The Definition 32
vi Contents________________________________________________________________________
։. p
2.3 Seasonality
2.3.1 Measuring Serial Correlation
2.3.2 Spectral Analysis and the Periodogram 59
2.3.3 Case Study: Seasonal Behavior of electricity
Prices and Loads 40
2.4 Seasonal Decomposition 41
2.4.1 Differencing 42
2.4.2 Mean or Median Week 44
2.4.3 Moving Average Technique 44
2.4.4 Annual Seasonality and Spectral Decomposition 44
2.4.5 Rolling Volatility Technique 45
2.4.6 Case Study: Rolling Volatility in Practice 46
2.4.7 Wavelet Decomposition 47
2.4.8 Case Study: Wavelet Filtering of Nord Pool Hourly
System Prices 40
2.5 Mean Reversion 40
2.5.1 R/S Analysis 50
2.5.2 Detrended Fluctuation Analysis 52
2.5.3 Periodogram Regression 53
2.5.4 Average Wavelet Coefficient 53
2.5.5 Case Study: Anti-persistence of Electricity Prices 54
2.6 Distributions of Electricity Prices 56
2.6.1 Stable Distributions 56
2.6.2 Hyperbolic Distributions 58
2.6.3 Case Study: Distribution of EEX Spot Prices 50
2.6.4 Further Empirical Evidence and Possible Applications 62
2.7 Summary 64
2.8 Further Reading 64
3 Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads 67
3.1 Introduction 67
3.2 Factors Affecting Load Patterns 69
3.2.1 Case Study: Dealing with Missing Values and Outliers 69
3.2.2 Time Factors 71
3.2.3 Weather Conditions 71
3.2.4 Case Study: California Weather vs Load 72
3.2.5 Other Factors 74
3.3 Overview of Artificial Intelligence-Based Methods 75
3.4 Statistical Methods 7g
3.4.1 Similar-Day Method 79
3.4.2 Exponential Smoothing 79
3.4.3 Regression Methods 81
3.4.4 Autoregressive Model 82
3.4.5 Autoregressive Moving Average Model 83
3.4.6 ARMA Model Identification 84
3.4.7 Case Study: Modeling Daily Loads in California 86
Contents
vii
3.4.8 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model 95
3.4.9 Time Series Models with Exogenous Variables 97
3.4.10 Case Study: Modeling Daily Loads in California with Exogenous
Variables 98
3.5 Summary 100
3.6 Further Reading 100
4 Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Prices 101
4.1 Introduction 101
4.2 Overview of Modeling Approaches 102
4.3 Statistical Methods and Price Forecasting 106
4.3.1 Exogenous Factors 106
4.3.2 Spike Preprocessing 107
4.3.3 How to Assess the Quality of Price Forecasts 107
4.3.4 ARMA-type Models 109
4.3.5 Fime Series Models with Exogenous Variables 111
4.3.6 Autoregressive GARCH Models 113
4.3.7 Case Study: Forecasting Hourly CalPX Spot Prices with
Linear Models 114
4.3.8 Case Study: Is Spike Preprocessing Advantageous? 125
4.3.9 Regime-Switching Models 127
4.3.10 Calibration of Regime-Switching Models 132
4.3.1 1 Case Study: Forecasting Hourly CalPX Spot Prices with
Regime-Switching Models 132
4.3.12 Interval Forecasts 136
4.4 Quantitative Models and Derivatives Valuation 136
4.4.1 Jump-Diffusion Models 137
4.4.2 Calibration of Jump-Diffusion Models 139
4.4.3 Case Study: A Mean-Reverting Jump-Diffusion Model for Nord
Pool Spot Prices 140
4.4.4 Hybrid Models 143
4.4.5 Case Study: Regime-Switching Models for Nord Pool Spot Prices 144
4.4.6 Hedging and the Use of Derivatives 147
4.4.7 Derivatives Pricing and the Market Price of Risk 148
4.4.8 Case Study: Asian-Style Electricity Options 150
4.5 Summary 153
4.6 Further Reading 154
Bibliography 157
Subject Index 171
Note to reader: Please note the CD has been converted to URL.
Go to the following website www.wiley.com/go/weronmodeling
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| spelling | Weron, Rafał Verfasser (DE-588)1013710436 aut Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach Rafał Weron Chichester [u.a.] Wiley 2006 XI, 178 S. zahlr. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de ram Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques ram Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de ram Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques ram Electric power consumption Forecasting Statistical methods Electric utilities Rates Forecasting Statistical methods Electric power consumption Forecasting Statistical methods Case studies Electric utilities Rates Forecasting Statistical methods Case studies Preismodell (DE-588)4175626-5 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Preisentwicklung (DE-588)4125931-2 gnd rswk-swf Elektrizitätsmarkt (DE-588)4328181-3 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4522595-3 Fallstudiensammlung gnd-content Elektrizitätsmarkt (DE-588)4328181-3 s Preismodell (DE-588)4175626-5 s DE-604 Preisentwicklung (DE-588)4125931-2 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s b DE-604 Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028351941&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Weron, Rafał Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de ram Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques ram Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de ram Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques ram Electric power consumption Forecasting Statistical methods Electric utilities Rates Forecasting Statistical methods Electric power consumption Forecasting Statistical methods Case studies Electric utilities Rates Forecasting Statistical methods Case studies Preismodell (DE-588)4175626-5 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Preisentwicklung (DE-588)4125931-2 gnd Elektrizitätsmarkt (DE-588)4328181-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4175626-5 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4125931-2 (DE-588)4328181-3 (DE-588)4522595-3 |
| title | Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach |
| title_auth | Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach |
| title_exact_search | Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach |
| title_full | Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach Rafał Weron |
| title_fullStr | Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach Rafał Weron |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach Rafał Weron |
| title_short | Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices |
| title_sort | modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach |
| title_sub | a statistical approach |
| topic | Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de ram Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques ram Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de ram Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques ram Electric power consumption Forecasting Statistical methods Electric utilities Rates Forecasting Statistical methods Electric power consumption Forecasting Statistical methods Case studies Electric utilities Rates Forecasting Statistical methods Case studies Preismodell (DE-588)4175626-5 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Preisentwicklung (DE-588)4125931-2 gnd Elektrizitätsmarkt (DE-588)4328181-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques Electric power consumption Forecasting Statistical methods Electric utilities Rates Forecasting Statistical methods Electric power consumption Forecasting Statistical methods Case studies Electric utilities Rates Forecasting Statistical methods Case studies Preismodell Prognose Preisentwicklung Elektrizitätsmarkt Fallstudiensammlung |
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