Financial forecasting, analysis, and modelling: a framework for long-term forecasting
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Chichester
Wiley
2015
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | XV, 215 S. |
| ISBN: | 9781118921081 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Financial forecasting, analysis, and modelling |b a framework for long-term forecasting |c Michael Samonas |
| 264 | 1 | |a Chichester |b Wiley |c 2015 | |
| 300 | |a XV, 215 S. | ||
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| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Mathematisches Modell | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Corporations |x Finance |x Mathematical models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Corporations |x Finance |x Forecasting | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Finanzplanung |0 (DE-588)4017200-4 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Preface
xl
Acknowledgments xfl
About the Author xv
HMCUX ....
Developing Corporate Finance Models
Chapter !
fertroducdon
1.1 What is Financial Modelling?
1.2 Defining the Inputs and the Outputs of a Simple
Financial Model
1.3 The Financial Modelling Process of More Complex Models
1.3.1 Step 1: Defining the Problem the Model Will Solve:
The Fundamental Business Question
1.3.2 Step 2: Specification of the Model
1.3.3 Step 3: Designing and Building the Model
1.3.4 Step 4: Checking the ModePs Output
1.4 Excel as a Tool of Modelling: Capabilities and Limitations
1
3
3
6
9
9
10
11
13
13
Ouptar 2
A art Prt—r hi the Acnwthm tt FmmeMTfitw—ti 17
2.1 The Accounting Equation 17
2.2 The Balance Sheet 20
2.3 The Income Statement 23
2.3.1 Cash Accounting Versus Accrual Accounting 26
2.4 The Cash Flow Statement 26
2.4.1 Operating Activities 27
2.4.2 Investing Activities 27
Vfl
vl
TABLE OF CONTENTS
2.4.3 Financing Activities 27
2.4.4 Income Flows and Cash Flows 27
2.4.5 Preparing the Statement of Cash Flows 28
2.5 The Articulation of Income Statement, Balance
Sheet, and Cash Flow Statements 29
2.6 Financial Statement Analysis: Ratio Analysis 32
2.6.1 Profitability Ratios 35
2.6.2 Liquidity Ratios 37
2.6.3 Solvency Ratios 38
2.6.4 Other Ratios 39
2.6.5 The Limitations of Financial Ratios 40
Chapter 3
Hnanctai Statement ModeBng 43
3.1 Introduction - How Financial Models Work 43
3.2 Collecting and Analyzing Historical Data 47
3.3 Selecting the Key Forecast Drivers 53
3.4 Modelling the Income Statement 59
3.5 Modelling the Balance Sheet 63
3.6 Modelling Interest and Circular References 66
3.7 Modelling the Cash Flow Statement 69
Chapter 4
Forecasting Performance 75
4.1 Introduction: Designing a Dashboard-like Control Panel 75
4.2 Basic Statistical Methods Used for Forecasting 88
4.3 Forecasting Sales 93
4.3.1 B ottom֊up Versus Top-down Forecasting 97
4.3.2 Forecasting Sales of Existing Products or Services 97
4.4 Forecasting Costs 99
4.5 Forecasting CAPEX and Depreciation 103
4.5.1 Forecasting CAPEX and Depreciation for Existing Companies 108
4.6 Forecasting Working Capital and Funding Needs 110
4.6.1 Forecasting Funding Needs 113
Chapters
Bttstom Valuation 115
5.1 Valuation Approaches 115
5.2 Steps for Applying the DCF Method 120
5.3 Rewriting Financial Statements - Calculation of
Free Cash Flows 121
5.4 Calculating the Weighted Average Cost of Capital 124
5.4.1 Calculating the Weighted Average Cost of Capital of SteelCo 128
Table of Contents b(
5.5 Estimating the Tenninal Value 131
5.6 DCF Summary - Enteiprise Value Adjustments 132
Planning lor Uncertainty 1S7
Chapter 8
Using Sensitivity Analysis 138
6.1 Introduction 139
6.2 One-Dimensional and 2-Dimensional Sensitivity Analysis 140
6.3 Choosing the Variables to Change 145
6.4 Modelling Example 149
6.4.1 Selecting the Variables to Change 149
6.4.2 Assigning a Range of Values 149
6.4.3 Constructing the 2֊dimensional Sensitivity Analysis Table 151
6.4.4 Interpreting the Results 153
Chapter 7
Using Scenarios 157
7.1 Introduction 157
7.2 Using Scenario Analysis with Excel’s Scenario Manager 158
7.2.1 Adding 2 More Scenarios 159
7.3 Alternative Ways to Create Scenarios in Excel 163
7.4 Applying Scenarios to SteelCo’s Case 167
7.4.1 Deciding on the Number of Scenarios and Input Variables
under each Scenario 167
7.4.2 Deciding on the Output Variables 168
7 .4.3 Assigning Values to the Input Variables under Each Scenario 170
7.4.4 Building the Scenarios in Excel’s Scenario Manager 173
7.4.5 Interpreting the Results 176
Chapter 8
(Jstag Meats Carte Startrttoa 179
8.1 Introduction 179
8.2 Building Uncertainty Directly Into the Modelling Process 180
8.3 Probabilities, Cumulative Probabilities, and Frequency Distribution Charts 182
8.4 Modelling Example 187
8.4.1 Identifying the Key Risk Variables 188
8.4.2 Choosing a Probability Distribution for Each Input Variable 188
8.4.3 Performing the Simulation Runs 190
8.4.3.1 The Simple VBA CODE 192
8.4.4 Creating a Histogram (Frequency Distribution Chart) in Excel 195
8.4.5 Interpreting the Results 200
8.4.6 Some Issues of Concern 201
X
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Appendx 203
1. Walking through the Excel Model Provided with the Book
(SteelCo SA 4yr Business Plan) 203
Introduction 203
Structure of the Model 204
2. Other Excel Files Provided with the Book 205
Max
207
|
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| id | DE-604.BV042627201 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T07:06:14Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781118921081 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 014040071 |
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| spelling | Samonas, Michael Verfasser aut Financial forecasting, analysis, and modelling a framework for long-term forecasting Michael Samonas Chichester Wiley 2015 XV, 215 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Mathematisches Modell Corporations Finance Mathematical models Corporations Finance Forecasting Finanzplanung (DE-588)4017200-4 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 s Finanzplanung (DE-588)4017200-4 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s b DE-604 Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028059826&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Samonas, Michael Financial forecasting, analysis, and modelling a framework for long-term forecasting Mathematisches Modell Corporations Finance Mathematical models Corporations Finance Forecasting Finanzplanung (DE-588)4017200-4 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4017200-4 (DE-588)4061963-1 (DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4047390-9 |
| title | Financial forecasting, analysis, and modelling a framework for long-term forecasting |
| title_auth | Financial forecasting, analysis, and modelling a framework for long-term forecasting |
| title_exact_search | Financial forecasting, analysis, and modelling a framework for long-term forecasting |
| title_full | Financial forecasting, analysis, and modelling a framework for long-term forecasting Michael Samonas |
| title_fullStr | Financial forecasting, analysis, and modelling a framework for long-term forecasting Michael Samonas |
| title_full_unstemmed | Financial forecasting, analysis, and modelling a framework for long-term forecasting Michael Samonas |
| title_short | Financial forecasting, analysis, and modelling |
| title_sort | financial forecasting analysis and modelling a framework for long term forecasting |
| title_sub | a framework for long-term forecasting |
| topic | Mathematisches Modell Corporations Finance Mathematical models Corporations Finance Forecasting Finanzplanung (DE-588)4017200-4 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Mathematisches Modell Corporations Finance Mathematical models Corporations Finance Forecasting Finanzplanung Unternehmen Prognose |
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