Afghanistan at transition: lessons of the longest war
"This new study covers the civil and military lessons of the war in Afghanistan as of 2015, the trends at the time of transition, and the risks inherent in the current approach to supporting Afghanistan. The report focuses on the lessons to be learned from the US experience in Afghanistan to da...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Lanham [u.a.]
Rowman & Littlefield
2015
|
| Schriftenreihe: | A report of the CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | "This new study covers the civil and military lessons of the war in Afghanistan as of 2015, the trends at the time of transition, and the risks inherent in the current approach to supporting Afghanistan. The report focuses on the lessons to be learned from the US experience in Afghanistan to date and the problems Afghanistan faces now that most US and allied combat forces have left. The work builds on more than a decade's worth of reporting and analysis of the Afghan war. It examines the recent trends and problems in Afghan governance, trends in the fighting, progress in the Afghan security forces, and what may be a growing crisis in the Afghan economy. The analysis is supported with extensive metrics on every major military and civil aspect of the war, a detailed analysis of the fighting, and a close examination of the problems resulting from the lack of Afghan political unity, the growing Afghan budget crisis, and critical problems with power brokers and corruption"--Publisher's web site |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references (pages 213-223) Executive summary -- The strategic vacuum in Afghanistan, Central and South Asia -- Uncertain priorities for US strategy -- The "threat" from Afghan politics, leadership, governance, and prospects for stability -- The ANSF and the threat from an intensifying conflict -- Problems in developing an effective ANSF -- The "threat" from Afghan economic challenges -- Regional "threats" : the uncertain impact of Pakistan -- Regional "threats" : strategic minimalism in Central Asia -- Regional "threats" : the real US strategic interest in India -- Regional "threats" : Iran, China, Russia, and other external powers -- US strategy : conditions-based commitments or limit the US role in Afghanistan and the Region |
| Beschreibung: | XV, 223 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 9781442240803 |
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| 500 | |a Executive summary -- The strategic vacuum in Afghanistan, Central and South Asia -- Uncertain priorities for US strategy -- The "threat" from Afghan politics, leadership, governance, and prospects for stability -- The ANSF and the threat from an intensifying conflict -- Problems in developing an effective ANSF -- The "threat" from Afghan economic challenges -- Regional "threats" : the uncertain impact of Pakistan -- Regional "threats" : strategic minimalism in Central Asia -- Regional "threats" : the real US strategic interest in India -- Regional "threats" : Iran, China, Russia, and other external powers -- US strategy : conditions-based commitments or limit the US role in Afghanistan and the Region | ||
| 520 | |a "This new study covers the civil and military lessons of the war in Afghanistan as of 2015, the trends at the time of transition, and the risks inherent in the current approach to supporting Afghanistan. The report focuses on the lessons to be learned from the US experience in Afghanistan to date and the problems Afghanistan faces now that most US and allied combat forces have left. The work builds on more than a decade's worth of reporting and analysis of the Afghan war. It examines the recent trends and problems in Afghan governance, trends in the fighting, progress in the Afghan security forces, and what may be a growing crisis in the Afghan economy. The analysis is supported with extensive metrics on every major military and civil aspect of the war, a detailed analysis of the fighting, and a close examination of the problems resulting from the lack of Afghan political unity, the growing Afghan budget crisis, and critical problems with power brokers and corruption"--Publisher's web site | ||
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.IX
I. THE STRATEGIC VACUUM IN AFGHANISTAN, CENTRAL AND SOUTH ASIA.1
US Strategy Writes Off Afghanistan Pakistan, and the Region.7
A QDR That Largely Wrote Off the Region.7
President Obama 's Statement on Afghanistan on May 27, 2014.8
President Obama 's New Strategy Speech at West Point.9
No Clearer Lead from NATO.12
A Civil Failure by USAID, the UN and Other Donors.15
No Real Future Aid Plans or Afghan Deliverables on Reform.15
The London Conference in December 2014.16
The Death of the Tokyo Conference Deliverables.16
President Ghani on Reform.17
II. UNCERTAIN PRIORITIES FOR US STRATEGY.20
US “Strategic Triage” Is Critical.20
The Issue Is Not Resources, But Strategic Priority.21
The Cost-Benefits of Upping the Ante.22
III. THE “THREAT” FROM AFGHAN POLITICS, LEADERSHIP, GOVERNANCE, AND
PROSPECTS FOR STABILITY.23
The Shell of Democracy: The Reality of the Presidency, Power Brokers, Parallel
Donor Country Governance.23
The Reality of National Versus Local Governance.23
Parallel Governance by 1SAF Regional Commands and National Air Donors.23
The US Role in Weak and Failed Afghan Governance.25
A Divided, Poor, and Struggling Nation.30
Failed and Corrupt 2014 Elections that Did More to Divide than Unite.31
An Awkward and Uncertain Compromise.34
A Deeply Uncertain Compromise at the Top.34
Limited Progress in Signing a Bilateral Security Agreement.35
Uncertain Afghan Leadership and Governance: Two Years Too Late?.36
The Heritage of Failed Governance and Corruption.37
Corruption and Incompetence.38
Keeping Corruption in Perspective.46
The Budget Crisis in Revenues and Expenditures.47
The Failure to Win US and Other Outside Domestic Political Support.54
The Combined Threat from Host Country’ Politics, Governance, and Budgeting.57
IV. THE ANSF AND THE THREAT FROM AN INTENSIFYING CONFLICT.58
The President 's "Sell by Date Slashing Advisors and Support Regardless of Conditions in
Afghanistan.58
The Impact of a Late and Erratic Effort to Create Effective Afghan Forces.59
The US as a Self-Inflicted Threat.60
A Brief and Largely Ineffective US Surge.61
Host Country “Threat".62
Rushing Force Development beyond Afghan and 1SAF Capacity.64
The Uncertain Threat.70
The Uncertain Integrity of 1SAF and Department of Defense Reporting on the Growing Security
Challenges at the Time of Transition.75
The Warnings in UN and SIGAR Casualty Data and Other Reporting.79
iv | Anthony H. Cordesman
The Final UN Report on Casualties through the End of 2014 Calls 1SAF and Department of
Defense Reporting into Even More Serious Question.85
Estimating the Growth of Taliban and Other Insurgent Influence and Control.91
Mixed Data on Popular Support for the ANSF.95
V. PROBLEMS IN DEVELOPING AN EFFECTIVE ANSF.102
The Question of Size and Cost.102
Uncertain Progress in the ANSF.111
Grossly Over-classifying Data on Afghan Combat and Police Forces for Political Ends .111
Issuing Meaningless Metrics on ANSF Capability.H2
An Unready and Corrupt Ministry of defense and Ministry of Interior.114
Uncertain progress in the ANA.116
Focusing on Force Generation rather than Combat Capability.117
The Seriousness of the Police challenge.119
Designing a Force with Limited Paramilitary Capability.120
A Force in Transition at the Time of Transition.123
Token Paramilitary forces.134
The Uncertain Role of the Afghan Local Police.126
Ohier ISAF Command Views in mid to Late 2014.127
Limited adjustments to the 9,800 ceiling and the US Combat Role.133
The Need for Transparency and to Decide on a Conditions-based Policy.134
VI. THE “THREAT” FROM AFGHAN ECONOMIC CHALLENGES.139
Drifting into crisis at the Time of Transition.139
The Uncertain Impact and Future of Aid.141
The Impact of Economics on Governance and Security.145
Understanding hie Broader Pressures on the Afghan Economy.146
A Population at Economic Risk.147
Demographic Pressure on Afghan Stability.147
Limited Progress in Human Development, and Uncertain Progress in Life Expectancy and
Education.148
Uncertain Economic Gro wti i and Over-dependence Agriculture.153
Over-Reliance on Agriculture and Favorable Rains.153
The Risks in Transition.153
Much Depends on Agriculture and Rainfall.154
Economic Stress and Poverty.157
World Bank Assessments of Poverty./57
The IMF Risk Assessment Matrix./59
Narcotics.161
A Major Trade deficit and No Miracles from a “New Silk Road” or Mineral
Extraction.165
Economic Reform and the Need for Aid.166
Developing Effective Conditions-Based aid.ZZ170
VII. REGIONAL “THREATS”: THE UNCERTAIN IMPACT OF PAKISTAN_171
AN Uncertain Process of Change.
Strategic Differences.ZZZZZ173
A Rising Tide of Internal Violence.ZZZZZ174
A US ally that Has also Been a “Threat”.ZZZZZ™ 180
Bribery Rather than True alliance.ZZZZZ! 181
Equally uncertain Afghan and Pakistani Relations.Z186
US transition in Afghanistan Means US Transition in Pakistan.ZZZZZZZ187
Afghanistan at Transition | v
VIII. REGIONAL “THREATS”: STRATEGIC MINIMALISM IN CENTRAL ASIA. 191
Making Central Asia a Routine US Diplomatic Interest.191
Unstable and Unpleasant Regimes.192
Investment, Trade, and Strategic Linkage: The real Silk Road Doesn’t Go Through
Afghanistan or serve UN Interests.194
Minimal Strategic and Security Interests.196
IX. REGIONAL “THREATS”: THE REAL US STRATEGIC INTEREST IN INDIA. 198
Limiting the US Role in Easing India-Pakistani Tensions and the role in Afghanistan
.198
Focusing on the Real US Strategic Interest.199
A Good Strategic Ally Does not Necessarily Make a Good Military Partner . 200
The need to Focus on Other aspects of US Relations with India.203
X. REGIONAL “THREATS”: IRAN, CHINA, RUSSIA, AND OTHER EXTERNAL POWERS
208
XI. US STRATEGY: CONDITIONS-BASED COMMITMENTS OR LIMIT THE US ROLE
IN AFGHANISTAN AND THE REGION.209
Is Strategy by Default a Good Strategy?.209
The Afghan Dilemma.210
The Case for Conditions-Based Involvement.210
The Case Against Conditions-Based Involvement.211
Choosing Between the Options.211 |
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| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)920422601 (DE-599)BVBBV042543473 |
| discipline | Politologie |
| format | Book |
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| spelling | Cordesman, Anthony H. 1939-2024 Verfasser (DE-588)132834979 aut Afghanistan at transition lessons of the longest war author, Anthony H. Cordesman. With Aaron Lin Lanham [u.a.] Rowman & Littlefield 2015 XV, 223 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier A report of the CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy Includes bibliographical references (pages 213-223) Executive summary -- The strategic vacuum in Afghanistan, Central and South Asia -- Uncertain priorities for US strategy -- The "threat" from Afghan politics, leadership, governance, and prospects for stability -- The ANSF and the threat from an intensifying conflict -- Problems in developing an effective ANSF -- The "threat" from Afghan economic challenges -- Regional "threats" : the uncertain impact of Pakistan -- Regional "threats" : strategic minimalism in Central Asia -- Regional "threats" : the real US strategic interest in India -- Regional "threats" : Iran, China, Russia, and other external powers -- US strategy : conditions-based commitments or limit the US role in Afghanistan and the Region "This new study covers the civil and military lessons of the war in Afghanistan as of 2015, the trends at the time of transition, and the risks inherent in the current approach to supporting Afghanistan. The report focuses on the lessons to be learned from the US experience in Afghanistan to date and the problems Afghanistan faces now that most US and allied combat forces have left. The work builds on more than a decade's worth of reporting and analysis of the Afghan war. It examines the recent trends and problems in Afghan governance, trends in the fighting, progress in the Afghan security forces, and what may be a growing crisis in the Afghan economy. The analysis is supported with extensive metrics on every major military and civil aspect of the war, a detailed analysis of the fighting, and a close examination of the problems resulting from the lack of Afghan political unity, the growing Afghan budget crisis, and critical problems with power brokers and corruption"--Publisher's web site Afghanistan National Security Forces Afghan War, 2001- / Peace HISTORY / Military / Afghan War (2001-) bisacsh Politik Wirtschaft Militärpolitik (DE-588)4065004-2 gnd rswk-swf Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd rswk-swf Afghanistan / Politics and government / 2001- Afghanistan / Economic conditions / 21st century Afghanistan / Strategic aspects Asia, Central / Strategic aspects Zentralasien Afghanistan (DE-588)4000687-6 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 s Militärpolitik (DE-588)4065004-2 s Afghanistan (DE-588)4000687-6 g DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-144-224-081-0 Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027977496&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Cordesman, Anthony H. 1939-2024 Afghanistan at transition lessons of the longest war Afghanistan National Security Forces Afghan War, 2001- / Peace HISTORY / Military / Afghan War (2001-) bisacsh Politik Wirtschaft Militärpolitik (DE-588)4065004-2 gnd Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4065004-2 (DE-588)4003846-4 (DE-588)4000687-6 (DE-588)4078704-7 |
| title | Afghanistan at transition lessons of the longest war |
| title_auth | Afghanistan at transition lessons of the longest war |
| title_exact_search | Afghanistan at transition lessons of the longest war |
| title_full | Afghanistan at transition lessons of the longest war author, Anthony H. Cordesman. With Aaron Lin |
| title_fullStr | Afghanistan at transition lessons of the longest war author, Anthony H. Cordesman. With Aaron Lin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Afghanistan at transition lessons of the longest war author, Anthony H. Cordesman. With Aaron Lin |
| title_short | Afghanistan at transition |
| title_sort | afghanistan at transition lessons of the longest war |
| title_sub | lessons of the longest war |
| topic | Afghanistan National Security Forces Afghan War, 2001- / Peace HISTORY / Military / Afghan War (2001-) bisacsh Politik Wirtschaft Militärpolitik (DE-588)4065004-2 gnd Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Afghanistan National Security Forces Afghan War, 2001- / Peace HISTORY / Military / Afghan War (2001-) Politik Wirtschaft Militärpolitik Außenpolitik Afghanistan / Politics and government / 2001- Afghanistan / Economic conditions / 21st century Afghanistan / Strategic aspects Asia, Central / Strategic aspects Zentralasien Afghanistan USA |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027977496&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cordesmananthonyh afghanistanattransitionlessonsofthelongestwar |