Otraženie na globalnata kriza vărchu finansovija sektor na Bălgarija:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Bulgarian |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Sofija
Akad. Izdat. "Prof. Marin Drinov"
2014
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. izd. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Abstract |
| Beschreibung: | PST: Impact of the global crisis on the Bulgarian financial sector. - In kyrill. Schr., bulg. - Zsfassung in engl. Sprache |
| Beschreibung: | 151 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9789543228003 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Otraženie na globalnata kriza vărchu finansovija sektor na Bălgarija |c Viktor Jocov |
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| 264 | 1 | |a Sofija |b Akad. Izdat. "Prof. Marin Drinov" |c 2014 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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СЪДЪРЖАНИЕ
Увод
. 7
I.
Глобалната финансова криза
-
възникване, развитие, разпрос¬
транение
. 10
1.1.
Теоретични модели на финансовите кризи
. 10
1.2.
Причини за възникването на финансовата
криз
. 13
1.3.
Канали за разпространение
-
механизми на трансмисията
. 17
1.4.
Навлизането на глобалната финансова криза в България
. 25
1.5.
Предприети антикризисни мерки
. 27
II.
Отражение на глобалната финансова криза върху българската
икономика
. 33
ИЛ
.
Отражение върху реалния сектор
. 33
11.2.
Отражение върху банковия сектор
. 45
11.3.
Отражение върху небанковия финансов сектор
. 71
III.
Можеше ли да се предвиди кризата?
. 83
III.
1.
За и против системите за ранно предупреждаване
. 83
Ш.2. Теоретичните подходи
. 86
III.
3.
Практическо приложение
—
някои предварителни резултати
. 88
IV.
Регулациите по време на криза
-
Базел
III
и въздействието
върху българската банкова система
. 131
V.
Посткризисни предизвикателства пред финансовия сектор
. 135
VI.
Заключение
. 139
Цитирана литература
. 142
Съкращения
. 148
Резюме на английски език
. 149
CONTENTS
Introduction
. 7
I. The Global financial crisis
-
breaking out, unfolding, spilling over
. 10
1.1. Theoretical models of financial crises
. 10
1.2.
Causes for the Crisis
. 13
1.3.
Channels of spreading and mechanisms of transmission
. 17
1.4.
The Global financial crisis enters Bulgaria
. 25
1.5.
Anticrisis
measures undertaken
. 27
II. Impact of the Global crisis on Bulgarian economy
. 33
II.
1.
Impact on the real sector
. 33
11.
2.
Impact on the banking sector
. 45
11.
3.
Impact on the non-banking financial sector
. 71
III. Could the crisis have been foreseen?
. 83
III.
1.
Pros and Cons for early warning systems
. 83
111.
2.
Theoretical approaches
. 86
111.3. A practical application
-
some preliminary results
. 88
IV. Supervision during crisis
—
the impact of Basel III on the Bulgarian
banking sector
. 131
V.
Postcrisis
challenges for the financial sector
. 135
VI. Conclusion
. 139
Bibliography
. 142
Abbreviations
. 148
Summary
. 149
IMPACT
OF THE GLOBAL CRISIS
ON THE BULGARIAN FINANCIAL SECTOR
Summary
The global financial crisis, which shook the world between
2007
and
2009,
resumed academic interest in financial crises, which was all
but stalled toward the end of the previous century. A decade of high
global economic activity, rapid growth in external trade and capital
flows, accompanied by low inflation and low interest rates lulled poli¬
cy makers' vigilance. Seemingly, the specter of financial crises disap¬
peared, but GFC showed up just in time to remind scientists, politicians
and businessmen alike how many diverse forms of manifestation may
have crises. In the apt expression of
Reinhart
and Rogoff crises are an
equal opportunity menace that can overtake any country
—
big or small,
rich or poor, developed or developing. Coping with crises requires im¬
mediate and adequate change in economic policy mix, which implies
they are well studied and recorded.
There are handful, if any, countries in the world, which remained
unaffected by the GFC. In fact, its influence was so wide and so deep
that fully justifies the renewed scientific interest that found expression
in hundreds of new books and thousands of articles on the topic of
financial crises. Each of them contributes in varying degrees for a full
and accurate understanding of this very interesting and complex mat¬
ter. Events of recent years clearly showed what a huge impact financial
crises have on economic policy. A thorough analysis of the causes and
consequences of financial crises have become an integral part of mod¬
ern economic and political debate.
Although with some delay, the GFC affected Bulgaria too, and
the main reasons for that were the close links with European econo¬
mies and financial markets. Signs of the crisis occurred in different
directions: seriously injured Bulgarian Stock Exchange shares lost
much of its value; there was a substantial outflow of foreign inves¬
tors, which first affected the real estate market, but then transferred
to other sectors of the economy; soaring interest rates on loans (pri¬
marily those for households) and general tightened credit conditions.
149
Channels
through which the crisis entered Bulgaria can be described
as follows;
•
The first and most important channel was through foreign trade.
Bulgaria's exports constitute more than a half of GDP, and the sharp
contraction of demand for Bulgarian goods and services seriously af¬
fected exporters. This could easily be seen looking at financial reports
of large export-oriented companies traded on the stock exchange. Many
smaller exporting companies collapsed and larger were forced to scale
down production;
•
The second important channel through which the global eco¬
nomic crisis entered economy is tourism, accounting for nearly
15%
of
GDP. Not only sea summer tourism and winter skiing were affected in
the first years of the crisis. The blow was borne mainly by the smaller,
usually family businesses, dealing with hotels and restaurants. Many of
them ceased to service their loans to the banks, which contributed to the
increase of non-performing loans;
•
The third channel that actually had the greatest influence were
foreign investments
-
both direct and portfolio. Many companies re¬
considered their investment plans and tightened budgets for capital ex¬
penditures to the bare essentials. This happened not only because of the
contraction in orders from foreign customers (through exports), but also
because of the significant increases in cost of financing.
•
The fourth channel was the contraction of bank lending. Mort¬
gage loans were first to take the hit, but later the crisis affected all types
of loans as interest rates (especially in the first years of cri-sis) were on
the rise while requirements for borrowers became much more stringent.
Moreover, demand for loans fell also due to the pessimistic forecasts for
virtually all European economies. All this adversely affect investment
and consumption.
•
The fifth channel was a severe contraction in construction and
real estate market as a whole. To a great extent this channel is con¬
nected to the third channel, insofar a large part of foreign direct in¬
vestment in the years preceding the crisis were aimed precisely
m
the real estate sector. Construction is generally a pro-cyclical sector,
but the negative effects of the decline in construction output was felt
much more severely due to the outflow of most of the foreign inves¬
tors and buyers.
150
This study has several tasks, each of which is discussed in a sepa¬
rate chapter. The first task is related to clarifying the nature of the finan¬
cial crisis; how it is determined; how it arose and spread; what phases
it came through and how and why it entered the Bulgarian economy.
These problems are analyzed in the first chapter. The second chapter
examines the various aspects of the impact of the GFC on Bulgarian
economy. This topic is discussed in three subsections, which focus on
the real sector, banking and non-banking financial sector respective¬
ly. The third chapter asks if the crisis could have been foreseen which
would have allowed for mitigating the more severe negative effects.
All calculations presented in this chapter are based on a well-known
and somewhat modified model first developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo,
and
Reinhart back
in
1997.
The fourth chapter deals with international
efforts to strengthen the regulations in the banking sector and how it
would affect bank and non-bank supervision in Bulgaria. The final, fifth
chapter discusses some current issues and challenges for the financial
sector in the post-crisis period.
Bayerische
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Staatsbibliothek j
München
j |
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| language | Bulgarian |
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| spelling | Jocov, Viktor 1961- Verfasser (DE-588)171917952 aut Otraženie na globalnata kriza vărchu finansovija sektor na Bălgarija Viktor Jocov 1. izd. Sofija Akad. Izdat. "Prof. Marin Drinov" 2014 151 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier PST: Impact of the global crisis on the Bulgarian financial sector. - In kyrill. Schr., bulg. - Zsfassung in engl. Sprache Finanzwirtschaft (DE-588)4017214-4 gnd rswk-swf Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd rswk-swf Auswirkung (DE-588)4112646-4 gnd rswk-swf Globalisierung (DE-588)4557997-0 gnd rswk-swf Bulgarien (DE-588)4008866-2 gnd rswk-swf Bulgarien (DE-588)4008866-2 g Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 s Globalisierung (DE-588)4557997-0 s Auswirkung (DE-588)4112646-4 s Finanzwirtschaft (DE-588)4017214-4 s DE-604 Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen 19 - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027813601&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen 19 - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027813601&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Abstract |
| spellingShingle | Jocov, Viktor 1961- Otraženie na globalnata kriza vărchu finansovija sektor na Bălgarija Finanzwirtschaft (DE-588)4017214-4 gnd Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd Auswirkung (DE-588)4112646-4 gnd Globalisierung (DE-588)4557997-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4017214-4 (DE-588)7635855-0 (DE-588)4112646-4 (DE-588)4557997-0 (DE-588)4008866-2 |
| title | Otraženie na globalnata kriza vărchu finansovija sektor na Bălgarija |
| title_auth | Otraženie na globalnata kriza vărchu finansovija sektor na Bălgarija |
| title_exact_search | Otraženie na globalnata kriza vărchu finansovija sektor na Bălgarija |
| title_full | Otraženie na globalnata kriza vărchu finansovija sektor na Bălgarija Viktor Jocov |
| title_fullStr | Otraženie na globalnata kriza vărchu finansovija sektor na Bălgarija Viktor Jocov |
| title_full_unstemmed | Otraženie na globalnata kriza vărchu finansovija sektor na Bălgarija Viktor Jocov |
| title_short | Otraženie na globalnata kriza vărchu finansovija sektor na Bălgarija |
| title_sort | otrazenie na globalnata kriza varchu finansovija sektor na balgarija |
| topic | Finanzwirtschaft (DE-588)4017214-4 gnd Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd Auswirkung (DE-588)4112646-4 gnd Globalisierung (DE-588)4557997-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Finanzwirtschaft Finanzkrise Auswirkung Globalisierung Bulgarien |
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