Expert adjustments of model forecasts: theory, practice and strategies for improvement
"To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts h...
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge
Cambridge Univ. Press.
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Summary: | "To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology." |
| Physical Description: | XVI, 127 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9781107081598 9781107441613 |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Titel: Expert adjustments of model forecasts
Autor: Franses, Philip Hans
Jahr: 2014
Contents
List of figures page viii
List of tables ix
Preface xi
1 Introduction 1
2 Optimal behaviour of experts 17
3 Observed behaviour of experts 40
4 How accurate are expert-adjusted forecasts? 69
5 How can forecasts be improved? 93
6 Conclusion, limitations and implications 108
Data appendix 115
References 119
Index 126
|
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| bvnumber | BV042370450 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
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| dewey-full | 330.01/12 |
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| dewey-ones | 330 - Economics |
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| dewey-search | 330.01/12 |
| dewey-sort | 3330.01 212 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV042370450 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T01:19:45Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781107081598 9781107441613 |
| language | English |
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| physical | XVI, 127 S. graph. Darst. |
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| spelling | Franses, Philip Hans 1963- Verfasser (DE-588)129435503 aut Expert adjustments of model forecasts theory, practice and strategies for improvement Philip Hans Franses Cambridge Cambridge Univ. Press. 2014 XVI, 127 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier "To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology." Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd rswk-swf Experte (DE-588)4071081-6 gnd rswk-swf Experte (DE-588)4071081-6 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027806721&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Franses, Philip Hans 1963- Expert adjustments of model forecasts theory, practice and strategies for improvement Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd Experte (DE-588)4071081-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4132280-0 (DE-588)4071081-6 |
| title | Expert adjustments of model forecasts theory, practice and strategies for improvement |
| title_auth | Expert adjustments of model forecasts theory, practice and strategies for improvement |
| title_exact_search | Expert adjustments of model forecasts theory, practice and strategies for improvement |
| title_full | Expert adjustments of model forecasts theory, practice and strategies for improvement Philip Hans Franses |
| title_fullStr | Expert adjustments of model forecasts theory, practice and strategies for improvement Philip Hans Franses |
| title_full_unstemmed | Expert adjustments of model forecasts theory, practice and strategies for improvement Philip Hans Franses |
| title_short | Expert adjustments of model forecasts |
| title_sort | expert adjustments of model forecasts theory practice and strategies for improvement |
| title_sub | theory, practice and strategies for improvement |
| topic | Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd Experte (DE-588)4071081-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Prognose Ökonometrie Experte |
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