Agricultural finance: from crops to land, water and infrastructure
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Chichester
Wiley
2015
|
| Schriftenreihe: | The Wiley finance series
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Klappentext |
| Beschreibung: | XIX, 268 S. Ill., graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9781118827383 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Agricultural finance |b from crops to land, water and infrastructure |c Hélyette Geman |
| 264 | 1 | |a Chichester |b Wiley |c 2015 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804153002518380544 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Table
of
Contents
Acknowledgments
xiii
About the Author
xv
Preamble
xvii
1
Physical and Financial Agricultural Markets
1
1.1
Agriculture and the Beginning of Human Sedentarization
1
1.1.1
Some recent numbers
2
1.1.2
The growing role of Africa
2
1.2
The Outlook of Agricultural Commodities Markets
3
1.2.1
Recent mergers and acquisitions
3
1.2.2
Trading places
:
from the ABCD to the NOW
4
1.2.3
The physical markets
9
1.2.4
The global flows of commodities
10
1.2.5
Back to the future: a new age for barter
11
1.2.6
The sources of information in agricultural commodity markets
12
1.3
History of Commodity Futures and Spot Markets
12
1.3.1
The actors in financial markets
12
1.3.2
The actors in agricultural commodity exchanges
13
1.3.3
The growth of Futures markets exchanges and the recent mergers
14
1.3.4
Futures markets and price volatility
15
1.3.5
The role of indexes in the creation of efficient commodity spot markets
16
1.3.6
Commodities and
numéraire
17
1.4
Shipping and Freight
17
1.4.1
International trade
18
1.4.2
Price formation in freight markets
18
2
Agricultural Commodity Spot Markets
25
2.1
Introduction
25
2.2
Price Formation in Agricultural Commodity Markets
25
2.3
Volatility in Agricultural Markets
27
2.3.1
Volatility of the price level versus return in agricultural
commodity markets
32
viii Table of
Contents
2.3.2
Which factors drive volatility?
36
2.3.3
Conclusion
38
3
Futures Exchanges
-
Future and Forward Prices
-
Theory of
Storage
-
The Forward Curve
39
3.1
Major Commodity Exchanges
39
3.2
Forward Contracts
41
3.3
Futures Contracts
43
3.3.1
Definition
43
3.3.2
Exchange of Futures for physicals (EFP)
44
3.4
Relationship between Forward and Futures Prices
45
3.5
Example of a Future Spread
47
3.6
Inventory and Theory of Storage
47
3.6.1
Spot and Futures prices volatilities
49
3.6.2
Development of the theory of storage: inventory
and prices
51
3.7
The Benefits of Forward Curves
52
3.7.1
Trading strategies around forward curves
52
3.7.2
Example of a seasonality-based Futures spread
53
3.7.3
From linear to convex payoffs
54
3.8
Stochastic Modeling of the Forward Curve
55
4
Plain Vanilla Options on Commodity Spot and Forward Prices. The
Bachelier-Black-Scholes Formula, the Merton Formula, the Black Formula
59
4.1
Introduction
59
4.2
Classical Strategies involving European Calls and Puts
62
4.2.1
Straddle
62
4.2.2
Strangle
62
4.2.3
Call spread or vertical call spread
63
4.2.4
Butterfly spread
64
4.3
Put-Call Parity for a Non-dividend Paying Stock
64
4.4
Valuation of European Calls: the
Bachelier—
Black—Scholes
Formula and the Greeks
66
4.4.1
Consequences of the Black—Scholes formula
70
4.4.2
The Greeks
71
4.5
The Merton
(1973)
Formula for Dividend-paying Stocks
75
4.6
Options on Commodity Spot Prices
77
4.7
Options on Commodity Futures: the Black
(1976)
Formula
78
4.8
Monte-Carlo Simulations for Option Pricing
79
4.8.1
The founding result
79
4.8.2
Monte-Carlo methods for plain vanilla options on non-dividend
paying stocks
80
4.8.3
Monte-Carlo methods for plain vanilla options on the spot commodity
82
4.9
Implied Volatility, Smile, and Skew in Equity Option Markets
83
4.10
Volatility Smile in Agricultural Commodity Markets
86
4.10.1
Where is the liquidity in agricultural commodity option markets?
86
4.10.2
Extracting the implied volatility from options on commodity Futures
86
Table
of
Contents
ix
5
Commodity Swaps, Swaptions, Accumulators, Forward-Start,
and Asian Options
89
5.1
Swaps and Swaptions
89
5.2
Accumulators
92
5.3
Forward-Start Options (or Calendar Spread Options on the Spot Price)
93
5.4
Asian Options as Key Instruments in Commodity Markets
95
5.4.1
Approximation of the arithmetic average by a geometric average
96
5.4.2
Approximation of the distribution of the arithmetic average
by a log-normal distribution
97
5.4.3
Monte-Carlo simulations for Asian options valuation
98
5.4.4
Exact results (Geman and Yor,
1993) 100
5.5
Trading the Shape of the Forward Curve through Floating-strike Asian Options
102
6
Exchange, Spread, and
Quanto
Options in Commodity Markets
103
6.1
Exchange Options
103
6.2
Commodity Spread Options and Their Importance in Commodity Markets
105
6.3
Commodity
Quanto
Options
109
7
Grain Cereals: Corn, Wheat, Soybean, Rice, and Sorghum
113
7.1
Introduction
113
7.2
Corn
113
7.3
Wheat
118
7.3.1
Wheat trading
119
7.3.2
Global wheat
119
7.3.3
The wheat supply chain
120
7.4
Soybeans
123
7.5
Rice
126
7.6
Sorghum
129
8
Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, and Tea
133
8.1
Sugar
133
8.1.1
Links of sugar with other commodities
134
8.1.2
Sugar trading
135
8.1.3
The European Union
136
8.1.4
Special relations of the
EU
with other countries
136
8.1.5
The United States
136
8.1.6
Special relations of the USA with other countries
137
8.1.7
Brazil
137
8.1.8
China
138
8.1.9
India
138
8.1.10
Thailand
139
8.1.11
Australia
139
8.1.12
Guatemala and Cuba
139
8.1.13
S
ugar
cane in Mauritius
140
8.2
Cocoa
140
8.3
Coffee
146
8.4
Tea
149
Table
of
Contents
9
Cotton, Timber and Wood, Pulp and Paper, Wool
153
9.1
Cotton
153
9.2
Lumber and Wood
156
9.3
Pulp and Paper
158
9.3.1
Pulp NBSK and BHKP indexes
159
9.3.2
Pulp US NBSK index
160
9.3.3
Pulp BHKP China
160
9.3.4
Pulp NBSK China
161
9.3.5
When bank notes go plastic
161
9.4
Wool and Cashmere
162
9.4.1
Cashmere
163
9.4.2
From the Kashmir Goat to high quality yarns
164
10
Orange Juice, Livestock, Dairy, and Fishery
165
10.1
Orange Juice
165
10.2
Livestock
166
10.2.1
Livestock markets
167
10.2.2
Cattle
168
10.2.3
Hogs
169
10.2.4
Pork bellies
169
10.2.5
The US live cattle contract specifications
170
10.2.6
Australia
171
10.2.7
The USA
171
10.3
Dairy
172
10.4
Fish Markets
173
10.5
Poultry and Eggs
174
11
Rubber, Palm Oil, and Biofuels
177
11.1
Rubber
177
11.2
Palm Oil
180
11.2.1
The oil palm and palm oil
181
11.2.2
Markets
182
11.3
Ethanol,
Biofuels, and Biomass
183
12
Land, Water, and Fertilizers
187
12.1
Land Types, Yields, and Erosion
187
12.1.1
Yield-at-risk
187
12.1.2
Land competition
188
12.1.3
Farmland in the USA
188
12.2
Fertilizers
189
12.2.1
Fertilizer markets
191
12.2.2
Fertilizer Index, corn, and wheat price trajectories over
the period
1991
to
2011 193
12.2.3
Fertilizer producing companies and share price returns
over the period
2004
to
2011 193
Table
of
Contents
xi
12.2.4
A
factor model for the share returns of fertilizer firms
198
12.3
Water and its crucial Role in the World Economy
207
12.3.1
The case of Australia, China, and Saudi Arabia
208
12.3.2
The case of Brazil
208
12.3.3
Competition for electricity, water, and land
209
12.4
Projections for the Future of Agriculture
209
12.4.1
Farm insurance
210
12.4.2
Estimating long-term agricultural supply
210
12.4.3
Market concentration
211
12.4.4
Spare capacity
211
12.5
Subsidies and Export Bans
211
12.5.1
Subsidies
212
12.5.2
Export bans
212
12.6
Market-oriented Farming
212
12.6.1
Open wheat market takes root in Canada
213
12.6.2
Kansas City wheat Futures trading coming to an end after
157
years
213
12.6.3
China food needs
214
13
Infrastructure and Farming Management in the Digital Age
217
13.1
Introduction
217
13.2
Agricultural Infrastructure
218
13.2.1
Total factor productivity
218
13.2.2
Climate change
219
13.2.3
Irrigation and increased productivity
219
13.2.4
Trends in irrigation
219
13.2.5
Storage
220
13.2.6
Grain elevators
220
13.2.7
Soybean crushers
220
13.2.8
The Brave New World of Monsanto
221
13.2.9
Infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa
221
13.2.10
Gabon: after black gold, green gold?
221
13.2.11
Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA) in Nigeria
222
13.2.12
Digital age on the farm: prescriptive planting
222
13.2.13
Sugar biofactory for
ethanol
in Brazil
224
13.2.14
After
ethanol,
railway, and natural gas
224
13.2.15
From iron ore mining to cattle farming in Australia
225
13.2.16
Robots for cow milking
225
13.2.17
Containers for agricultural commodities
226
13.2.18
Singapore as a hub for refrigeration containers
226
13.2.19
The trip of the banana
226
13.2.20
Energy, water, and infrastructure for DAP and agriculture
in Saudi Arabia
227
13.3
Country Risk: the Example of Ukraine in
2014 227
13.4
Analyzing the Risks Involved in an International Wheat Tender Offer
228
13.5
Weather Risk and Weather Derivatives
229
xii
Table
of
Contents
14
Investing in Agricultural Commodities, Land, and Physical Assets
233
14.1
Purchase of Commodity Futures
233
14.2
Purchase of Commodity Options and Structured Products
235
14.3
Commodity Index Investing
236
14.3.1
Some prominent commodity indexes
236
14.3.2
How commodity indices are constructed
238
14.3.3
Commodity-linked bonds
239
14.4
Investing in Commodity-related Equities
239
14.5
Investing in Land
240
14.5.1
The US case
241
14.5.2
The world case
241
14.6
Acquisition of Infrastructure and Physical Assets
242
14.6.1
Valuation of a transformation plant using a real
options approach
242
14.6.2
DCF approach to the valuation of a transformation plant
243
14.6.3
Valuation of a silo (or an aquifer, or any storage facility)
245
14.7
Conclusion
247
Glossary
248
References
252
Index
257
Agriculture is trie most important asset class both
for trie world population and as an investment
vehicle for pension funds and other financial in¬
stitutions, and yet it receives little serious attention.
-Agr-zc Zd.l-ttj. r izl
Ј-^гггггггсге
is a comprehensive resource on
the topic, addressing all relevant factors from both
and technical perspectives.
ihis book also
the major agricultural commodities and
provides essential background information on their
pricing cycles, risk factors, markets, trade routes,
outlooks.
і
he global population is projected to reach S> bil¬
lion before
2
О
5O, and food is a pressing economic,
social, political, and moral issue. You. ^vill learn in
^Lgrzczcltrzé-r-ctl
J-^żrzćirzce
what this unprecedented situa¬
tion means for commodity exchanges, agribusiness
equities, and a whole range of derivatives and complex
instruments, including:
calendar spread and
¡-based
soybeans,
•
Swaptions and accumulators
•
Cľ^rush
spreads and
quanto
options
•
Commodity-specific issues in corn,
coffee, sugar, cotton, and fertilizers
•
Infrastructure development and digital farm¬
ing around the world
•
Real options contained in the ownership of
physical assets in agriculture
Deregulation of electricity and natural gas markets
an explosion of new products in the 2.000s;
food needs are bringing to this decade innovative
rure—related instruments and strategies in the
of physical assets and
one of the world s top derivatives experts,
r^irzćznc:^
accotants
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You ll learn how weather patterns, country risk, gov¬
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you understand a space where demand can be made
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price
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Geman, Hélyette |
| author_GND | (DE-588)171177940 |
| author_facet | Geman, Hélyette |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Geman, Hélyette |
| author_variant | h g hg |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV042367701 |
| classification_rvk | QS 400 ZB 75000 ZB 90500 |
| classification_tum | LAN 050.750f |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)904462328 (DE-599)BVBBV042367701 |
| dewey-full | 338.1/3 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 338 - Production |
| dewey-raw | 338.1/3 |
| dewey-search | 338.1/3 |
| dewey-sort | 3338.1 13 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Agrarwissenschaft Agrar-/Forst-/Ernährungs-/Haushaltswissenschaft / Gartenbau Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV042367701 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T01:19:41Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781118827383 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-027804019 |
| oclc_num | 904462328 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-11 DE-384 DE-1028 DE-945 |
| owner_facet | DE-11 DE-384 DE-1028 DE-945 |
| physical | XIX, 268 S. Ill., graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateSearch | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | The Wiley finance series |
| spelling | Geman, Hélyette Verfasser (DE-588)171177940 aut Agricultural finance from crops to land, water and infrastructure Hélyette Geman Chichester Wiley 2015 XIX, 268 S. Ill., graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier The Wiley finance series Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd rswk-swf Agrarmarkt (DE-588)4000767-4 gnd rswk-swf Kapitalmarkt (DE-588)4029578-3 gnd rswk-swf Agrarmarkt (DE-588)4000767-4 s Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 s Kapitalmarkt (DE-588)4029578-3 s DE-604 Digitalisierung UB Augsburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027804019&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung UB Augsburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027804019&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Klappentext |
| spellingShingle | Geman, Hélyette Agricultural finance from crops to land, water and infrastructure Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Agrarmarkt (DE-588)4000767-4 gnd Kapitalmarkt (DE-588)4029578-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4121590-4 (DE-588)4000767-4 (DE-588)4029578-3 |
| title | Agricultural finance from crops to land, water and infrastructure |
| title_auth | Agricultural finance from crops to land, water and infrastructure |
| title_exact_search | Agricultural finance from crops to land, water and infrastructure |
| title_full | Agricultural finance from crops to land, water and infrastructure Hélyette Geman |
| title_fullStr | Agricultural finance from crops to land, water and infrastructure Hélyette Geman |
| title_full_unstemmed | Agricultural finance from crops to land, water and infrastructure Hélyette Geman |
| title_short | Agricultural finance |
| title_sort | agricultural finance from crops to land water and infrastructure |
| title_sub | from crops to land, water and infrastructure |
| topic | Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Agrarmarkt (DE-588)4000767-4 gnd Kapitalmarkt (DE-588)4029578-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Risikomanagement Agrarmarkt Kapitalmarkt |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027804019&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027804019&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gemanhelyette agriculturalfinancefromcropstolandwaterandinfrastructure |