Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences:
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Baden-Baden
Nomos
2014
|
| Edition: | 1. ed. |
| Series: | Studien zur Wahl- und Einstellungsforschung
27 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | 338 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 9783848708222 |
Staff View
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES 11
LIST OF TABLES 17
1. INTRODUCTION 19
1.1 THE PROBLEM 19
1.2 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN GERMANY: AN OVERVIEW 28
1.2.1 INTRODUCTORY REMARKS 28
1.2.2 DEVELOPMENT OF THE TOTAL FERTILITY RATE 29
1.2.3 DEVELOPMENT OF AVERAGE LIFE EXPECTANCY 33
1.2.4 DEVELOPMENT OF THE MIGRATION BALANCE 34
1.2.5 DEVELOPMENT OF THE TOTAL POPULATION 36
1.2.6 DEVELOPMENT OF POPULATION AGEING 38
1.3 STRUCTURE OF THE BOOK 42
2. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND 45
2.1 SCOPE OF THE CHAPTER 45
2.2 EXPLAINING AGE DIFFERENCES IN POLITICAL BEHAVIOR AND POLITICAL
ATTITUDES 46
2.2.1 AGE EFFECTS 46
2.2.2 COHORT EFFECTS 49
2.3 IMPLICATIONS FOR UPCOMING ELECTIONS 51
3. DETECTING POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AT THE
AGGREGATE LEVEL 55
3.1 SCOPE OF THE CHAPTER 55
3.2 DATA AND RESEARCH STRATEGY 57
3.3 OVERVIEW OF POLITICAL AND CONTEXT CHARACTERISTICS IN REGIONS WITH AN
EXTREME AGE STRUCTURE 60
3.4 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND THE CHANGING SOCIAL-ECONOMIC CONTEXT 65
3.5 CONSEQUENCES FOR TURNOUT 74
3.5.1 DESCRIPTION OF TURNOUT IN FEDERAL ELECTIONS 74
3.5.2 CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSES OF TURNOUT DIFFERENCES 83
7
HTTP://D-NB.INFO/1055968342
3.5.3 LONGITUDINAL ANALYSES OF TURNOUT CHANGES 87
3.6 CONSEQUENCES FOR THE PARTY VOTE 92
3.6.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE PARTY VOTE IN FEDERAL ELECTIONS 92
3.6.2 CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSES OF PARTY VOTE DIFFERENCES 106
3.6.3 LONGITUDINAL ANALYSES OF PARTY VOTE CHANGES 115
3.7 SUMMARY 124
4. DETECTING POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE USING THE
REPRESENTATIVE ELECTORAL STATISTICS
(CO-AUTHORED BY CORINA WAGNER) 127
4.1 SCOPE OF THE CHAPTER 127
4.2 DATA AND RESEARCH STRATEGY 129
4.2.1 DATA SOURCES 129
4.2.2 WEIGHTING PROCEDURE 133
4.2.3 REDUCTION OF CASES 134
4.2.4 RESEARCH STRATEGY 135
4.3 CONSEQUENCES FOR TURNOUT 13 7
4.3.1 EXPLANATORY POWER OF THE COHORT ANALYTIC MODEL FOR TURNOUT 137
4.3.2 NET EFFECTS ON TURNOUT 139
4.3.2.1 COMPUTATION OF NET EFFECTS 139
4.3.2.2 NET EFFECTS OF PERIOD ON TURNOUT 140
4.3.2.3 NET EFFECTS OF COHORT ON TURNOUT 141
4.3.2.4 NET EFFECTS OF AGE ON TURNOUT 144
4.3.3 POLARIZATION OF TURNOUT 146
4.3.4 FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF TURNOUT 148
4.3.4.1 ASSUMPTIONS 148
4.3.4.2 PREDICTED TURNOUT RATES 150
4.3.4.3 AGEING OF (ELIGIBLE) VOTERS 152
4.3.4.4 FUTURE POLARIZATION OF TURNOUT 153
4.4 CONSEQUENCES FOR THE PARTY VOTE 155
4.4.1 EXPLANATORY POWER OF THE COHORT ANALYTIC MODEL FOR THE PARTY
VOTE 155
4.4.2 NET EFFECTS ON THE PARTY VOTE 157
4.4.2.1 NET EFFECTS OF PERIOD ON THE PARTY VOTE 157
4.4;2.2 NET EFFECTS OF COHORT ON THE PARTY VOTE 160
4.4.2.3 NET EFFECTS OF AGE ON THE PARTY VOTE 165
4.4.3 POLARIZATION OF THE PARTY VOTE 169
4.4.4 FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF THE PARTY VOTE 174
4.5 SUMMARY 179
8
5. DETECTING POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AT THE
INDIVIDUAL LEVEL 183
5.1 SCOPE OF THE CHAPTER 183
5.2 DATA AND RESEARCH STRATEGY 185
5.3 AGE-SPECIFIC DIFFERENCES IN POLITICAL ATTITUDES 189
5.3.1 INTRODUCTORY REMARKS 189
5.3.2 EVALUATIONS OF THE WELFARE STATE 192
5.3.2.1 SALIENCE OF DIFFERENT POLICY AREAS 192
5.3.2.2 DESIRED GOVERNMENT RESPONSIBILITY FOR DIFFERENT POLICY
AREAS 196
5.3.2.3 DESIRED GOVERNMENT SPENDING FOR DIFFERENT POLICY AREAS 199
5.3.2.4 SATISFACTION ABOUT DIFFERENT POLICY AREAS 201
5.3.2.5 FEARS ABOUT OWN OLD AGE 203
5.3.3 ASSESSING PARTY COMPETENCES 205
5.3.4 POLITICAL ATTITUDES, VALUE ORIENTATIONS, AND PERCEPTIONS 213
5.4 CONSEQUENCES FOR TURNOUT 218
5.4.1 TURNOUT BY AGE 218
5.4.2 DETERMINANTS OF TURNOUT 220
5.4.3 MULTIVARIATE ANALYSES OF TURNOUT 223
5.5 CONSEQUENCES FOR THE PARTY VOTE 232
5.5.1 PARTY VOTE BY AGE 232
5.5.2 DETERMINANTS OF THE PARTY VOTE 234
5.5.3 MULTIVARIATE ANALYSES OF THE PARTY VOTE 2-36
5.6 SUMMARY 252
6. CONCLUSIONS 255
APPENDIX A - ADDITIONAL TABLES AND FIGURES 263
APPENDIX B - PROCEDURE OF SUBSTITUTING MISSING RES DATA 317
APPENDIX C - EXTRACT FROM THE QUESTIONNAIRE 321
REFERENCES 327
INDEX 336
9
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Konzelmann, Laura Bergmann, Michael 1979- Rattinger, Hans 1950- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)1058771434 (DE-588)1058771469 (DE-588)121484661 |
| author_facet | Konzelmann, Laura Bergmann, Michael 1979- Rattinger, Hans 1950- |
| author_role | aut aut aut |
| author_sort | Konzelmann, Laura |
| author_variant | l k lk m b mb h r hr |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV042079737 |
| classification_rvk | MF 4800 MG 15480 MS 2700 MS 4200 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)889426968 (DE-599)DNB1055968342 |
| dewey-full | 324.943 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 324 - The political process |
| dewey-raw | 324.943 |
| dewey-search | 324.943 |
| dewey-sort | 3324.943 |
| dewey-tens | 320 - Political science (Politics and government) |
| discipline | Politologie Soziologie |
| edition | 1. ed. |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV042079737 |
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| indexdate | 2024-07-10T01:12:10Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783848708222 |
| language | English |
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| physical | 338 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| publishDate | 2014 |
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| publisher | Nomos |
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| series | Studien zur Wahl- und Einstellungsforschung |
| series2 | Studien zur Wahl- und Einstellungsforschung |
| spelling | Konzelmann, Laura Verfasser (DE-588)1058771434 aut Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences Laura Konzelmann ; Michael Bergmann ; Hans Rattinger 1. ed. Baden-Baden Nomos 2014 338 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Studien zur Wahl- und Einstellungsforschung 27 Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf Wahlverhalten (DE-588)4079009-5 gnd rswk-swf Altersstruktur (DE-588)4124541-6 gnd rswk-swf Politische Einstellung (DE-588)4076217-8 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 g Wahlverhalten (DE-588)4079009-5 s Politische Einstellung (DE-588)4076217-8 s Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s Altersstruktur (DE-588)4124541-6 s DE-604 Bergmann, Michael 1979- Verfasser (DE-588)1058771469 aut Rattinger, Hans 1950- Verfasser (DE-588)121484661 aut Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe, PDF 978-3-8452-5010-6 Studien zur Wahl- und Einstellungsforschung 27 (DE-604)BV021735921 27 DNB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027520838&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Konzelmann, Laura Bergmann, Michael 1979- Rattinger, Hans 1950- Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences Studien zur Wahl- und Einstellungsforschung Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Wahlverhalten (DE-588)4079009-5 gnd Altersstruktur (DE-588)4124541-6 gnd Politische Einstellung (DE-588)4076217-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4079009-5 (DE-588)4124541-6 (DE-588)4076217-8 (DE-588)4011882-4 |
| title | Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences |
| title_auth | Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences |
| title_exact_search | Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences |
| title_full | Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences Laura Konzelmann ; Michael Bergmann ; Hans Rattinger |
| title_fullStr | Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences Laura Konzelmann ; Michael Bergmann ; Hans Rattinger |
| title_full_unstemmed | Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences Laura Konzelmann ; Michael Bergmann ; Hans Rattinger |
| title_short | Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences |
| title_sort | demographic change in germany its political consequences |
| topic | Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Wahlverhalten (DE-588)4079009-5 gnd Altersstruktur (DE-588)4124541-6 gnd Politische Einstellung (DE-588)4076217-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bevölkerungsentwicklung Wahlverhalten Altersstruktur Politische Einstellung Deutschland |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027520838&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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