Verfügbarkeit: Hazards analysis

Hazards analysis: reducing the impact of disasters

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Format:	Buch
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Boca Raton [u.a.] CRC Press 2015
Schlagworte:	Katastrophenrisiko Naturkatastrophe Risikomanagement Risikoanalyse Prognose Naturgefahr
Online-Zugang:	Inhaltsverzeichnis Klappentext
Beschreibung:	XXI, 316 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt.
ISBN:	9781482228915

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Datensatz im Suchindex

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adam_text	Contents Preface ...........................................................................................................xv Acknowledgements ......................................................................................xvii Editor ...........................................................................................................xix Contributors .................................................................................................xxi 1 Introduction to Hazards Analysis ..........................................................1 JOHN C. PINE Objectives ....................................................................................................1 Key Terms ....................................................................................................1 Issue .............................................................................................................2 Introduction ................................................................................................2 Terminology of Hazards ..............................................................................3 Views of Extreme Natural Events as Primary Causes of Disasters ................6 A Changing Hazards Paradigm ...................................................................7 Hazards Analysis .........................................................................................9 Hazard Identification .................................................................................10 Vulnerability Analysis ................................................................................11 Risk Analysis .............................................................................................12 Linking Hazards Analysis to Risk and Comprehensive Emergency Management ..............................................................................................12 Communicating Risk from a Hazards Analysis ................................16 Community Involvement ..................................................................16 Values in Community Engagement ..................................................18 Conclusions ...............................................................................................19 Discussion Questions .................................................................................23 Applications ...............................................................................................24 Websites .....................................................................................................24 References ..................................................................................................25 vi ■ Contents 2 Hazards Identification ..........................................................................29 JOHN C. PINE Objectives ..................................................................................................29 Key Terms ..................................................................................................29 Issue ...........................................................................................................30 Introduction ..............................................................................................30 Hazards Identification Process ...................................................................32 Organizing a Hazards Identification Team ...............................................34 Creating a Community Profile ..................................................................34 Community Assets ...........................................................................35 Environmental or Natural Assets and Risks ......................................36 Sources of Hazards Data ............................................................................38 Social Assets .....................................................................................38 Economic and Constructed Assets ....................................................39 Infrastructure ..........................................................................39 Critical Facilities ......................................................................39 Economic Activities ................................................................40 Mapping Community Assets and Hazards ...............................................40 Interdependence of Communities ..............................................................43 Identifying Community Problems .............................................................43 Problem-Solving Process ...........................................................................44 Problem Solving in a Nonstructured Environment ....................................47 Decision Traps ...........................................................................................48 Perception of Risks by Citizens ..................................................................49 Conclusions ...............................................................................................50 Discussion Questions .................................................................................50 Applications ...............................................................................................50 Websites .....................................................................................................51 Population Data ................................................................................51 Health Data ......................................................................................51 Environmental Data .........................................................................51 Transportation ..................................................................................52 Energy ..............................................................................................53 Business Statistics .............................................................................54 Mapping Resources ....................................................................................55 References ..................................................................................................55 3 Modeling Natural- and Human-Caused Hazards ................................59 JOHN C. PINE Objectives ..................................................................................................59 Key Terms ..................................................................................................59 Issue ...........................................................................................................60 Role of Hazard Modeling in Hazards Analysis ..........................................60 Contents ■ vii An Example of a Hazard Model .................................................................61 Nature and Types of Models ......................................................................62 Dynamic Models ..............................................................................62 Deterministic ....................................................................................63 Probabilistic ......................................................................................63 Models Used in Hazards Analysis .............................................................64 HAZUS-MH Model .......................................................................64 Evacuation Transportation Modeling ........................................................67 Modeling Community Resilience ..............................................................68 Communicating Risks from Models ..........................................................69 Assessing Hazard Models ...........................................................................71 Validity .............................................................................................71 Quality .............................................................................................71 Availability of Model Documentation ..............................................71 Data Accuracy, Resolution, and Availability .....................................72 Coupling Models with GIS ........................................................................73 Static versus Adaptable Outputs .................................................................76 Uses of Model Outputs ..............................................................................76 Timeliness .......................................................................................77 Completeness ...................................................................................77 Advantages and Disadvantages of Hazard Models .....................................79 Model Limitations .....................................................................................79 Hazard Profiles ..........................................................................................80 Sources of Hazard Information for the Hazard Profile ...............................80 Description of Hazard ......................................................................82 Magnitude ........................................................................................82 Frequency of Occurrence ..................................................................82 Seasonal Pattern ................................................................................83 Duration ...........................................................................................83 Speed of Onset .................................................................................83 Availability of Warnings ..................................................................84 Location and Spatial Extent .............................................................84 Conclusions ..............................................................................................84 Discussion Questions .................................................................................85 Applications ...............................................................................................85 National Flood Insurance Program ...................................................85 Hazard Profile Sample for a Tornado ................................................86 Websites .....................................................................................................87 Avalanches .................................................................................................88 Dam Safety ................................................................................................88 Drought .....................................................................................................88 Earthquakes ...............................................................................................88 Flooding ....................................................................................................89 viii ■ Contents Landslides ..................................................................................................89 Snow .........................................................................................................90 Tornadoes .................................................................................................90 Tsunamis ..................................................................................................90 Wildfires ...................................................................................................90 References ..................................................................................................91 Spatial Analysis ....................................................................................93 JOHN C. PINE Objectives ..................................................................................................93 Key Terms ..................................................................................................93 Issue ...........................................................................................................94 Introduction ..............................................................................................94 Definition of Spatial Analysis ....................................................................94 Geospatial Data Set ...................................................................................96 Spatial Data Quality ..................................................................................98 Types of Spatial Analysis ..........................................................................101 Queries ...........................................................................................101 Using Spatial Analysis to Answer Questions ............................................102 Transformations .............................................................................104 Buffering .........................................................................................104 Descriptive Summaries ...................................................................104 Optimization Techniques ...............................................................105 Hypothesis Testing .........................................................................105 Spatial Data Visualization ........................................................................106 Choropleth Maps .....................................................................................107 Conclusions .............................................................................................110 Discussion Questions ...............................................................................110 Applications .............................................................................................110 Websites ................................................................................................... Ill References ................................................................................................ Ill Risk Analysis: Assessing the Risks of Hazards ...................................113 KEVIN L. SHIRLEY AND JOHN C. PINE Objectives ................................................................................................113 Key Terms ................................................................................................113 Introduction ............................................................................................114 Process of Risk Analysis ...........................................................................114 What Is Risk? ..........................................................................................115 Quantitative Analysis of Risk ..................................................................116 Quantitative Analysis of Likelihood ...............................................117 Quantitative Analysis of Consequence ............................................117 Contents ■ ix Qualitative Analysis of Risk .....................................................................118 Qualitative Analysis of Likelihood ..................................................118 Qualitative Analysis of Consequence ..............................................118 Views of Risk ...........................................................................................119 Using Historical Data in Determining Risk ............................................122 Need for Complete Accurate Data for Decision Making .........................124 Using Technical Data in Decision Making ..............................................124 Indicators of Direct and Indirect Losses ...................................................125 Issues in Risk Analysis .............................................................................127 Changes in Disaster Frequency .......................................................127 Availability of Essential Data ..........................................................128 Depth of Analysis ...........................................................................130 Ranking of Risks .....................................................................................131 Quantitative Data ...........................................................................131 Likelihood—Consequence Matrix ...................................................132 Risk Strategies ................................................................................136 Mandatory Risk Level ....................................................................137 Extremely Low Likelihood of Risk .................................................137 Accept the Risk ...............................................................................138 Determining Risk Acceptability .....................................................138 Personal .................................................................................138 Political/Social .......................................................................139 Economic ..............................................................................139 Hazard Models ........................................................................................140 Uncertainty ....................................................................................141 Logic Tree .......................................................................................141 Monte Carlo Method or Simulation ...............................................145 Uncertainty Expressed in Interval Estimates ..................................146 Summary .................................................................................................149 Discussion Questions ...............................................................................151 Applications .............................................................................................151 Websites ...................................................................................................151 References ................................................................................................152 Sociály Economic, and Ecological Vulnerability ................................155 JOHN С PINE Objectives ................................................................................................155 Key Terms ................................................................................................155 Introduction ............................................................................................156 Approaches to Vulnerability .....................................................................157 Contents Dimensions of Vulnerability ....................................................................160 Social and Human Vulnerability ....................................................161 Economic Vulnerability ..................................................................163 Environmental Vulnerability ..........................................................164 Measuring Vulnerability ..........................................................................166 Indicators of Social Conditions .......................................................167 Indicators of Economic Conditions ................................................169 Indicators of Environmental Conditions .........................................171 Methodological Issues ..............................................................................175 Scale of Analysis .............................................................................175 Weighting, Data Availability, and Accuracy ...................................175 Type and Scope of Measures ...........................................................175 Interdependence of Social, Economic, and Ecological Capital ........176 Discussion Questions ...............................................................................177 Applications .............................................................................................177 Websites ...................................................................................................177 References ................................................................................................179 7 Risk Communication .........................................................................185 JOHN C. PINE AND STEPHEN L. GUILLOT, JR. Objectives ................................................................................................185 Key Terms ................................................................................................185 Issue .........................................................................................................186 Introduction ............................................................................................186 Risk Communication ..............................................................................186 Risk Communication Process ..................................................................187 Barriers in Risk Communication .............................................................189 Risk Communication Tools .....................................................................192 Communicating Risks with Maps ..................................................193 Use of Figures .................................................................................197 Social Media ............................................................................................198 Targeting Specific Audiences ...................................................................198 Risk Communication Myths ...................................................................199 Managing Risks .......................................................................................202 Decision Making .....................................................................................203 Community Engagement ........................................................................204 Stakeholders Involvement ........................................................................207 Ethics and Decision Making ....................................................................210 Legal Issues in Decision Making ..............................................................211 Indemnification .......................................................................................213 Acknowledging Risk as a Part of Risk Communication ...........................214 Contents ■ xî Learning as a Part of Risk Communication .............................................214 Discussion Questions ...............................................................................215 Applications .............................................................................................216 Websites ...................................................................................................216 References ................................................................................................216 8 Hazards Risk Management Process ...................................................221 GREG SHAW Objectives ................................................................................................221 Key Terms ................................................................................................221 Issue ........................................................................................................222 Introduction ...........................................................................................222 Terminology ............................................................................................223 Risk Management ....................................................................................225 Hazards Risk Management Framing Questions ......................................228 Framework for Hazards Risk Management ..............................................229 Components of the Hazards Risk Management Process ..........................230 Communicate and Consult .............................................................230 Monitor and Review .......................................................................231 Step 1: Establish the context ...............................................231 Step 2: Identify the hazards ................................................233 Step 3: Assess the hazard risk .............................................234 Step 4: Sort the hazards by risk magnitude .........................235 Step 5: Analyze the risks from each hazard .........................236 Step 6: Group and prioritize the hazard risks and consider risk management interventions ................................237 Application of the Hazards Risk Management Process ............................239 Overview ........................................................................................239 Step 1: Establish the context ...............................................239 Step 2: Identify the hazards ................................................240 Step 3: Assess the hazards risk ............................................240 Step 4: Sort the hazards by risk magnitude .........................241 Step 5: Analyze the risks from each hazard .........................241 Step 6: Group and prioritize the hazard risks and consider risk management interventions ................................242 Hazards Risk Management and Comprehensive Emergency Management .........................♦.................................................................244 Discussion Questions ...............................................................................245 Applications .............................................................................................245 Websites ..................................................................................................246 References ...............................................................................................246 xii ■ Contents 9 Planning for Sustainable and Disaster-Resilient Communities .........249 GAVIN SMITH Objectives ................................................................................................249 Key Terms ................................................................................................249 Introduction ............................................................................................251 Sustainability, Disaster Resilience Climate Change Adaptation, and Hazard Mitigation Planning ....................................................................251 Hazard Mitigation Planning Policy Framework .......................................258 Hazard Mitigation Plan ...........................................................................259 Power of Plan Making: Tools and Process ...............................................266 Planning Process: Building Stakeholder Capacity to Confront Hazards ..........................................................................................267 Discussion Questions ...............................................................................274 Applications .............................................................................................275 You Be the Planner .........................................................................275 Websites ...................................................................................................275 References ................................................................................................275 10 Creating Disaster-Resilient Communities: A New Natural Hazards Risk Management Framework .............................................281 GAVIN SMITH Objectives ................................................................................................281 Key Terms ................................................................................................281 Introduction ............................................................................................282 Hazard Mitigation Policies ......................................................................283 Emergent National Climate Change Adaptation Policy ..........................286 New Natural Hazards Risk Management Policy Framework ...................287 Expand Natural Hazards Analysis to Include Sustainable Development and Disaster-Resilient Themes ..................................288 Use Risk Assessment Findings to Guide Land Use and Scenario- Based Planning That Assesses Current and Future Vulnerability ....288 Assess Hazard Risk Management Policies, Programs, Plans, and Projects as Part of a Larger Effort to Build Local Capacity and Self-Reliance through a Risk Governance Strategy .........................289 Balance Incentives and Penalties Affecting Human Settlement Pattern Adjustments: A Critical Look at Existing Hazard Mitigation Programs .......................................................................290 Assess Losses Avoided and Build Disaster-Resilient Communities in the Age of Climate Change ..................................294 Recommendations for Action ..................................................................295 Draw Lessons from a National Assessment of Local Hazard Mitigation Plans .............................................................................296 Contents ■ xiii Place a Greater Emphasis on Land-Use Decisions and Human Settlement Patterns .........................................................................299 Establish a Robust Training and Capacity-Building Approach .......299 Enact Sanctions for Low-Performing States and Communities that Underperform and Provide Benefits to Communities and States that Develop Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plans .................299 Engage Professional Land-Use Planners in the Implementation of the Proposed Natural Hazards Management Framework ..........300 Facilitate the Use of Planners as Agents of Social Change and Policy Learning ...............................................................................301 Include Hazards Analysis in Planning for Climate Change ............302 Summary and Conclusions .....................................................................304 Discussion Questions ...............................................................................305 Applications .............................................................................................305 You Be the Policy Analyst ...............................................................305 You Be the Planner .........................................................................305 References ...............................................................................................306 Index ...........................................................................................................309 The impacts of natural and man-made disasters have increased exponentially over the past few decades. Moreover, with our global interconnectedness and the growing scale of disasters, today s catastrophic disasters can have regional, national, and even global economic consequences. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, Hazards Analysis: Reducing the Impact of Disasters, Second Edition provides a structure and process for understanding the nature of natural and human-caused disasters. Stressing the role of hazard risk management for public, private, and nonprofit organizations, the author and expert contributors cover problem solving, risk analysis, and risk communications to ensure readers are in a position to identify key problems associated with hazards and the risks that they present. The book details a systematic process of hazards identification, vulnerability determination, and consequence assessment for the natural, built, and human environment. Using a cross-disciplinary approach, this book effectively demonstrates how to use the results of vulnerability assessment, spatial analysis, and community planning to reduce adverse disaster outcomes and foster social, economic, and environmental sustainability. Throughout, the book stresses that hazards analysis is not an isolated process but one that must engage the local community. Complete with clearly set objectives, key terms, discussion questions, satellite images, and maps for further study, this authoritative guide covers every element of the hazard analysis process in a step-by-step format. Hazards Analysis presents time-proven strategies for building sustainable communities, identifying and prioritizing risks, and establishing successful disaster prevention and relief strategies prior to a disaster.
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spelling	Hazards analysis reducing the impact of disasters John C. Pine Boca Raton [u.a.] CRC Press 2015 XXI, 316 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Katastrophenrisiko (DE-588)4202680-5 gnd rswk-swf Naturkatastrophe (DE-588)4041387-1 gnd rswk-swf Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd rswk-swf Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Naturgefahr (DE-588)4123823-0 gnd rswk-swf Naturkatastrophe (DE-588)4041387-1 s Katastrophenrisiko (DE-588)4202680-5 s DE-604 Naturgefahr (DE-588)4123823-0 s Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 s Pine, John C. Sonstige oth Digitalisierung UB Bayreuth - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027191240&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung UB Bayreuth - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027191240&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Klappentext
spellingShingle	Hazards analysis reducing the impact of disasters Katastrophenrisiko (DE-588)4202680-5 gnd Naturkatastrophe (DE-588)4041387-1 gnd Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Naturgefahr (DE-588)4123823-0 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)4202680-5 (DE-588)4041387-1 (DE-588)4121590-4 (DE-588)4137042-9 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4123823-0
title	Hazards analysis reducing the impact of disasters
title_auth	Hazards analysis reducing the impact of disasters
title_exact_search	Hazards analysis reducing the impact of disasters
title_full	Hazards analysis reducing the impact of disasters John C. Pine
title_fullStr	Hazards analysis reducing the impact of disasters John C. Pine
title_full_unstemmed	Hazards analysis reducing the impact of disasters John C. Pine
title_short	Hazards analysis
title_sort	hazards analysis reducing the impact of disasters
title_sub	reducing the impact of disasters
topic	Katastrophenrisiko (DE-588)4202680-5 gnd Naturkatastrophe (DE-588)4041387-1 gnd Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Naturgefahr (DE-588)4123823-0 gnd
topic_facet	Katastrophenrisiko Naturkatastrophe Risikomanagement Risikoanalyse Prognose Naturgefahr
url	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027191240&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027191240&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
work_keys_str_mv	AT pinejohnc hazardsanalysisreducingtheimpactofdisasters

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