Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections: A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cham
Springer International Publishing
2014
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| Schriftenreihe: | SpringerBriefs in Environmental Science
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | BTU01 FFW01 TUM01 UBG01 UBT01 UPA01 Volltext Inhaltsverzeichnis Abstract |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (VIII, 58 p. 18 illus., 15 illus. in color) |
| ISBN: | 9783319038230 |
| ISSN: | 2191-5547 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/978-3-319-03823-0 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804151753262759936 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | MODELLING POTENTIAL MALARIA SPREAD IN GERMANY BY USE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
PROJECTIONS
/ SCHROEDER, WINFRIED
: 2014
TABLE OF CONTENTS / INHALTSVERZEICHNIS
1. BACKGROUND AND GOALS
2. CASE STUDY 1: MODELLING POTENTIAL TRANSMISSION GATES OF MALARIA
TERTIANA IN LOWER SAXONY
3. CASE STUDY 2: MODELLING POTENTIAL TRANSMISSION GATES OF MALARIA
TERTIANA IN GERMANY
4. CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK
DIESES SCHRIFTSTUECK WURDE MASCHINELL ERZEUGT.
MODELLING POTENTIAL MALARIA SPREAD IN GERMANY BY USE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
PROJECTIONS
/ SCHROEDER, WINFRIED
: 2014
ABSTRACT / INHALTSTEXT
ONE OF THE MOST TROUBLING AND DANGEROUS EFFECTS OF CLIMATE WARMING IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW OUTBREAKS OF VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES – IN HUMANS
AS WELL AS LIVESTOCK – THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN ERADICATED, OR AT
LEAST EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSED. ONE SUCH THREAT IS MALARIA. ALTHOUGH IT IS
OFTEN BELIEVED TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE TROPICS AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES,
CLIMATE CHANGE COULD BRING MALARIA BACK TO EUROPE, ESPECIALLY INTO
COUNTRIES WHERE IT WAS PRESENT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE LAST CENTURY,
SUCH AS GERMANY, WHERE TERTIAN MALARIA OR VIVAX MALARIA, A RATHER SEVERE
FORM OF MALARIA, WAS PREVALENT IN NORTH-WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY
UNTIL THE 1950S, WHEN IT WAS ERADICATED. THE VECTOR ITSELF, THE MOSQUITO
(ANOPHELES ATROPARVUS), IS STILL PRESENT, AND INFECTED PEOPLE FROM
MALARIAL REGIONS COULD INTRODUCE A NEW ONSET OF MALARIA.THIS BOOK
INVESTIGATES THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE-DRIVEN
MALARIA TRANSMISSIONS, USING THE BASIC REPRODUCTION RATE (R0) TO MODEL
THE REPRODUCTION OF THE MALARIA PATHOGEN PLASMODIUM VIVAX. THE AUTHORS
MAPPED AREAS AT RISK OF AN OUTBREAK OF TERTIAN MALARIA IN THE FEDERAL
STATE OF LOWER SAXONY (PRE-STUDY) AND FOR WHOLE GERMANY (MAIN-STUDY) BY
MEANS OF GEOSTATISTICS FOR PAST (1947-2007) AND FUTURE PERIODS.
PROJECTIONS BASED ON PREDICTED MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURE DATA DERIVED
FROM THE IPCC AND REGIONALLY DISCRIMINATED BY TWO REGIONAL CLIMATE
MODELS (REMO, WETTREG) FOR THE COUNTRYWIDE STUDY. THE TRANSMITTED
PARASITES USUALLY BENEFIT FROM INCREASED TEMPERATURES AS BOTH THEIR
REPRODUCTIVE AND DEVELOPMENT CYCLES ARE ACCELERATED. THE RESULTING MAPS
SHOW THAT THE SEASONAL TRANSMISSION GATE MAY BE EXTENDED FROM AN AVERAGE
OF 3 MONTHS UNDER PRESENT TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS TO UP TO 6 MONTHS IN
THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD 2051-2080.ALTHOUGH MODELS DESCRIBED IN THIS
BOOK DO NOT INTEGRATE SUCH OTHER DRIVING FACTORS AS THE DISTRIBUTION OF
WATER BODIES SERVING AS BREEDING HABITATS, OR POPULATION DENSITY, THE
FINDINGS ILLUMINATED HERE COULD PROVE USEFUL FOR ESTABLISHING A
MONITORING SCHEME AND FOR INVESTIGATION AND ASSESSMENT OF RELATED
DISEASES CAUSED BY TEMPERATURE-DEPENDENT VECTORS AND PATHOGENS,
INCLUDING MANY WHICH ARE DANGEROUS FOR LIVESTOCK
DIESES SCHRIFTSTUECK WURDE MASCHINELL ERZEUGT.
|
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| discipline | Geowissenschaften Biologie Umwelt |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/978-3-319-03823-0 |
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| isbn | 9783319038230 |
| issn | 2191-5547 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Schröder, Winfried 1958- Verfasser (DE-588)10542563X aut Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures by Winfried Schröder, Gunther Schmidt Cham Springer International Publishing 2014 1 Online-Ressource (VIII, 58 p. 18 illus., 15 illus. in color) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier SpringerBriefs in Environmental Science 2191-5547 Biowissenschaften Klimaänderung Environmental sciences Medical parasitology Life sciences Epidemiology Climatic changes Schmidt, Gunther 1969- Sonstige (DE-588)129408883 oth https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03823-0 Resolving-System Volltext Springer Fremddatenuebernahme application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027014239&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Springer Fremddatenuebernahme application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027014239&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Abstract |
| spellingShingle | Schröder, Winfried 1958- Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures Biowissenschaften Klimaänderung Environmental sciences Medical parasitology Life sciences Epidemiology Climatic changes |
| title | Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures |
| title_auth | Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures |
| title_exact_search | Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures |
| title_full | Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures by Winfried Schröder, Gunther Schmidt |
| title_fullStr | Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures by Winfried Schröder, Gunther Schmidt |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures by Winfried Schröder, Gunther Schmidt |
| title_short | Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections |
| title_sort | modelling potential malaria spread in germany by use of climate change projections a risk assessment approach coupling epidemiologic and geostatistical measures |
| title_sub | A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures |
| topic | Biowissenschaften Klimaänderung Environmental sciences Medical parasitology Life sciences Epidemiology Climatic changes |
| topic_facet | Biowissenschaften Klimaänderung Environmental sciences Medical parasitology Life sciences Epidemiology Climatic changes |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03823-0 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027014239&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027014239&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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