Kam se ztratili voliči?: vysvětlení vývoje volební účasti v České republice v letech 1990 - 2010
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Czech |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Brno
Centrum pro Studium Demokracie a Kultury (CDK)
2013
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. vyd. |
| Schriftenreihe: | Politologická řada
40 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Rezension Inhaltsverzeichnis Abstract |
| Beschreibung: | Zsfassung in engl. Sprache |
| Beschreibung: | 334 S. |
| ISBN: | 9788073253141 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Kam se ztratili voliči? |b vysvětlení vývoje volební účasti v České republice v letech 1990 - 2010 |c Lukáš Linek |
| 250 | |a 1. vyd. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Brno |b Centrum pro Studium Demokracie a Kultury (CDK) |c 2013 | |
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| 490 | 1 | |a Politologická řada |v 40 | |
| 500 | |a Zsfassung in engl. Sprache | ||
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1812271643061387264 |
|---|---|
| adam_text |
OBSAH
PODĚKOVÁNÍ
.5
1.
ÚVOD: VOLEBNÍ ÚČAST, JEJÍ POKLES
A KVALITA DEMOKRACIE
.7
1.1.
Funkce voleb, volební účast a normativní hodnocení
její úrovně
.7
1.2.
Pokles volební účasti ve světě, Evropě,
postkomunistických státech a Česku
.15
1.3.
Co víme o volební účasti v postkomunistické Evropě a v Česku?.
19
1.3.1.
Narativy vysvětlení poklesu volební účasti
v postkomunistických zemích
.20
1.3.2.
Zjištění ze studií založených na agregovaných datech
.23
1.3.3.
Zjištění ze studií založených na individuálních datech
.25
1.4.
Cíl výzkumu, strategie analýzy a přehled publikace
.27
2.
TEORIE VOLEBNÍ ÚČASTI
.35
2.1.
Co ovlivňuje volební účast na individuální úrovni?
.36
2.2.
Teorie socioekonomického statusu a zdrojů
.38
2.3.
Teorie občanských orientací
.42
2.4.
Teorie mobilizace a zapojení do společnosti
.45
2.5.
Teorie racionální volby
.50
2.6.
Teorie valenčního hlasování
.58
2.7.
Teorie habituálního hlasování
.61
2.8.
Závěr
.66
3.
MODEL VOLEBNÍ ÚČASTI
.71
3.1.
Co vysvětlovat? Zdánlivá binarita volební ne/účasti
.73
3.2.
Volební účast v kontextu ostatních forem
politické participace: definice a charakteristiky
.77
3.3.
Důsledky charakteristik volební účasti
pro jeji teoretické vysvětlení
.82
-33Ί
-
3.4.
Syntetický model volební účasti
.86
3.5.
Závěr
.96
4.
KDO SE ÚČASTNÍ VOLEB?
.99
4.1.
Analytická strategie
.100
4.2.
Vek
.103
4.3.
Pohlaví
.106
4.4.
Vzdělání
.108
4.5.
Příjem a socioekonomický status
.111
4.6.
Velikost bydliště
.116
4.7.
Vývoj nerovností ve volební účasti v čase
.119
4.8.
Vícečetná regresní analýza
.124
4.9.
Závěr
.128
5.
PROČ SE LIDÉ ÚČASTNÍ VOLEB?
MOBILIZACE A MOTIVACE
.131
5.1.
Mobilizace a zapojení do společnosti
.132
5.1.1.
Přímá mobilizace
.132
5.1.1.
Nepřímá mobilizace
.136
5.2.
Instrumentální motivace I: prostorový užitek z hlasování
.139
5.3.
Instrumentální motivace
II:
valenční
užitek z hlasování
.146
5.4.
Expresívni
motivace
к
hlasování: stranická identifikace
.149
5.5.
Normativní motivace
к
hlasování; smysluplnost hlasování
.152
5.6.
Vývoj vlivu mobilizace a motivace v čase
.153
5.7.
Vícečetná regresní analýza
.156
5.8.
Závěr
.164
6.
ASYMETRIČNOST
VYSVETLENÍ
VOLEBNÍ ÚČASTI
A
OTEVŔENÉ
OTÁZKY
.167
6.1.
Otevřené otázky: argumenty pro a proti jejich použití
.168
6.2.
Důvody volební neúčasti dle otevřených otázek
.175
6.3.
Jak se změní vysvětlení volební účasti při vyloučení
nevoličů kvůli okolnostem?
.180
6.4.
Závěr
.185
-332-
7.
VLIV GENERAČNÍ VÝMĚNY NA POKLES
VOLEBNÍ ÚČASTI V ČR MEZI LETY
1990
AŽ
2010.187
7.1.
Proč by generace měly mít odlišnou volební účast?
.189
7.2.
Analytická strategie a kohortní analýza
.195
7.3.
Analýza efektu generací na volební účast
v letech
1990-2010
pomocí kontingenčních tabulek
.198
7.4.
Logistická regresní analýza efektu věku, období
a generací a vliv generační výměny na volební účast
.204
7.5.
Závěr
.213
8.
VYSVĚTLENÍ POKLESU VOLEBNÍ ÚČASTI V ČR
MEZI LETY
1996
AŽ
2010.217
8.1.
Jakje
vysvětlován pokles volební účasti?
.218
8.2.
Analytická strategie
.223
8.3.
Vysvětlení poklesu volební účasti v ČR v letech
1996
až
2010.225
8.4.
Proč klesla volební účast?
.238
9.
VLIV VOLEBNÍ ÚČASTI NA ZISKY JEDNOTLIVÝCH
POLITICKÝCH STRAN
.241
9.1.
Způsob zkoumání vlivu volební účasti
na zisky jednotlivých stran
.243
9.2.
Výsledky analýz vlivu účasti na zisky politických stran
pro roky
2006
a
2010.246
9.2.1.
Hypotetické volební výsledky při odlišně
definovaných úrovních volební účasti
.246
9.2.2.
Regresní analýza vlivu volební účasti
na zisky politických stran
.250
9.2.3.
Volební podpora stran na základě stranických sympatií
.254
9.3.
Závěr
.257
10.ZÄVÉR
.261
10.1.
Co jsme se dozvěděli o důvodech volební účasti v Česku?
.262
10.2.
Co jsme se dozvěděli o příčinách poklesu
volební účastí v Česku?
.
264
10.3.
Pokles volební účasti v Česku v kontextu interpretací
poklesu účasti v dlouhodobých demokraciích
.269
'333-
10.4.
Pokles volební účasti v Česku v kontextu interpretací
poklesu účasti v postkomunistických státech
.271
10.5.
Jakým způsobem zvýšit volební účast
ve sněmovních volbách?
.274
10.5.1.
Snížení nákladů
.274
10.5.2.
Zvýšení zisků
.277
10.5.3.
Limity institucionálních změn
.280
PŘÍLOHY
.283
Příloha
1.
Datové zdroje
.283
1.1.
Informace o sběru dat
.283
1.2.
Informace o vážení
.285
Příloha
2.
Operacionalizace proměnných
.286
2.1.
Závisle proměnná: volební účast
.286
2.2.
Nezávisle proměnné
.288
SUMMARY
.295
REFERENCE
.301
VĚCNÝ REJSTŘÍK
.325
JMENNÝ REJSTŘÍK
.329
-334-
SUMMARY
Over the last two decades, there has been a decline in electoral partici¬
pation in almost all European democratic countries
-
both in Western
Europe's traditional democracies and in post-communist states. Neverthe¬
less, the decline in post-communist countries was much faster than that
in Western European states, namely from high figures in early
1990s
(over
90
percent in some states) to less than
60
percent today. The dramatic fall
in electoral participation in post-communist countries slowed after
2000,
albeit at levels of nearly twenty percentage points less than in Western
European democracies.
The Czech Republic is no exception to this international trend in declin¬
ing electoral participation even
ifit
still has slightly higher overall levels of
voter turnout. Since the early
1990s
electoral participation has dropped in
several waves. In the first democratic elections in June
1990,
electoral par¬
ticipation was almost universal at
97
percent. In the following election of
1992,
turnout fell to
85
percent. In the second half of the
1990s,
it declined
once again where three-quarters of all voters cast a ballot. Another decline
in participation occurred in
2002
when electoral participation dropped by
16
percentage points, from
74
to
58
percent. During the last three lower
chamber elections
(2002
to
2010),
electoral participation never exceeded
65
percent. Therefore, the main goal of this monograph is to explore the
reasons for the decline in electoral participation; and chart its consequences
in terms of political representation and individual parties' electoral gains.
Any study which seeks to explain change in electoral participation
over time should ideally be based on a theory of electoral participation at
the individual level. The basic conceptual argument about what motivates
people to participate in elections and what is causing the decline of elec¬
toral participation in the Czech Republic put forward in this monograph
contends that decline in turnout accentuates the competitive character of
elections. Competition affects voters' perceptions of differences between
political parties in terms of both positional and valence issues. At the same
time, my model includes normative motivations, namely the perceived
meaningfulness' of electoral participation, which is unpacked in this study
to capture voters' belief that (a) who people vote for can make a difference
and (b) who is in power can make a difference.
-295-
Of equal importance are other voter characteristics such as level of
party identification, cognitive resources and social connectedness. Mean-
ingfulness of turnout considerations tends to be less relevant to voters who
identify with a party. Similarly, electoral participation tends to be higher
among individuals with cognitive resources as they have better orientation
in politics; and among those more socially connected because they are
more easily mobilized to go to vote. Thus, Chapter
3
presents a theoreti¬
cal model of electoral participation which combines findings from both
rational choice and valence voting theories through the concepts of mobi¬
lization, civic orientations and resources. Earlier in Chapter
2
a review of
theories of voter turnout provides the context for this monograph within
the literature.
The analyses reported in this study are based on merged
datasets
from
post-election questionnaire surveys undertaken between
1990
and
2010.
Chapters
4
and
5
gradually explore the different elements of the theoretical
model through bivariate and multiple regression analyses. Before an indi¬
vidual model can be employed to explain change in time, it is necessary to
check any changes in the effects of individual variables over time. This is
done by modelling change in the strength of relationships between inde¬
pendent variables and electoral participation. Thus, Chapters
4
and
5
use
changing-parameters models and convergence models for testing changes
in the strength of association over time.
The model of electoral participation presented in this book assumes
that explanations of electoral participation have a dichotomous and
'symmetric' character. More specifically, I expect factors promoting voter
turnout to equal and opposite to causes of non-participation. For exam¬
ple, individuals with strong party identification tend to go vote while
those without it do not. This perspective is not completely satisfactory as
there are some asymmetric' factors which explain electoral participation
but not abstention. For example, a seriously ill person cannot go voting
while the opposite is not true: a healthy individual does not necessarily
go to the polling station on Election Day.
ín
other words, good health
is a necessary but not sufficient condition of electoral participation.
Therefore, Chapter
6
explores if explanations of electoral participation
built on symmetric dichotomous assumptions are useful for studying
turnout.
Changes in electoral participation over time are explained by means
of a single model applied to the merged post-election
datasets.
Chapters
7
and
8
employ a general decomposition model that includes not only
-296-
independent variables
but also qualitative (dummy) variables measuring
different levels of electoral participation for each election. If the effects
of these election specific, level of turnout, variables are eliminated by the
inclusion of independent variables, then variation in electoral participa¬
tion over time may be explained on the basis of changes in the values of
the independent variables.
In explaining the decline of electoral participation in the Czech Repub¬
lic, this study first focuses on the possible effects of generational change.
One plausible argument here is that older individuals who are gradually
dying out may be more likely to vote while the emerging younger groups of
voters may be less likely to vote. However, in the Czech case, generational
change had little effect (i.e.
1-2
percentage points) on the observed decline
in electoral participation. This result makes sense because the effects of
generational change are necessarily slow while electoral participation in
the Czech Republic has changed dramatically from one election to the
subsequent one.
While the effects of generational change are associated with only a
limited decline in electoral participation, other structural changes in the
Czech society slowed the decline in turnout. Without an increase in the
general level of education combined with a slight ageing of the Czech
population, electoral participation in
2010
would have been two percent¬
age points lower than that observed. In the future, increases in educational
attainment plus a population that is ageing may be expected to lead to
a slight increase in electoral participation or to slow down any decline
thereof. These educational and aging effects are likely, however, to be coun¬
terbalanced by the impact of generational change as the net impact of all
three structural changes will be close to zero.
The second part of the analysis of decline in electoral participation
focuses on the role of mobilizing activities and attitudes. The evolution of
voter turnout in the Czech Republic between
1990
and
2010
was negatively
affected by shrinking trade union membership and a decreasing propor¬
tion of people living in marriage. If the number of unionized and mar¬
ried individuals had remained constant between
1996
and
2010,
electoral
participation in
2010
would have been three percentage points above the
actual figure. In the future, further decline in union membership cannot
be expected to depress turnout any further because the proportion of
unionized individuals in society is very low already. In contrast, marriage
trends in the Czech society suggest that the number of individuals living
outside marriage will most likely continue to grow. Therefore, the decline
-297-
of family and marriage related mobilization will continue to contribute to
the decline of electoral participation.
An important portion of the decline in electoral participation was
caused by a decrease in the instrumental motivation for voting based on
valence considerations about political parties' competence and credibility.
Another important cause of decline in turnout lies in shrinking norma¬
tive motivations and, more specifically, the perceived meaningfulness of
voting. In contrast, expressive motivations based on party identification
and instrumental motivations for voting based on left-right policy con¬
siderations did not have any effects on decline in electoral participation.
Thus, the fall in electoral participation in the Czech Republic cannot be
explained by less intensive electoral competition between political parties.
The importance of left-right ideological electoral competition as a factor
motivating electoral participation did not change throughout the time pe¬
riod. Decline in voter turnout was caused instead by a decline in positive
valence evaluations of parties: stemming from overall appraisals of parties
in terms of their election programmes, credibility and perceived compe¬
tence to govern. As programme-based instrumental motivations did not
contribute to decline in electoral participation, it may be argued that the
fall in turnout was mainly caused by changes in voters' evaluations of par¬
ties' credibility and competence to govern.
In order to explain decline of electoral participation, it is also neces¬
sary to take into account the fact that the two most important motivations
underpinning fall in turnout, i.e. attitudes associated with valence issues
and normative considerations, have varying impacts across all elections
examined. The eighteen percentage point difference between electoral
participation in
1996
and
2002
are mostly explained by a fall in norma¬
tive motivations whose effect is around three times larger than that of
instrumental motivations. In contrast, the thirteen percentage point gap
in turnout observed between
1996
and
2010
stems from a decline in both
normative and instrumental motivations. The influence of both of instru¬
mental and normative factors on turnout decline is nonlinear; and cannot
be simply extrapolated across time in contrast to changes in education
and marriage levels for example. Indeed, the determinants of participa¬
tion decline are election-specific and may in certain situations promote
rather than attenuate electoral participation. In sum, decline in elec¬
toral participation in the Czech Republic has its own internal dynamics
originating in various causal mechanisms that cannot be attributed to any
single source.
-298-
Besides the above-mentioned changes in composition and their effect
on the decline of electoral participation, I consider it necessary to mention
findings about the changing effects of individual motivations on electoral
participation. This is important because such analyses can help us identify
which segments of the electorate were demobilized
-
in other words, which
groups of voters contributed most to the decline in electoral participation.
Initial analyses revealed that (a) party identification and (b) one facet of
valence motivated voting measured using most preferred party rating
scales had time varying effects, these time dependent effects were not
observed in subsequent multiple regression analyses. For this reason, this
study has not explained decline in participation in the Czech Republic in
terms of the changing impact of the independent variables introduced in
Chapters
4
and
5.
The causes of turnout decline discussed for much of the
book encompass change in the composition of the electorate in terms of
the prevalence of instrumental and normative motivations.
In contrast to the
1996
chamber elections, lower voter turnout in sub¬
sequent elections was characterised by individuals who reported that they
were not psychologically involved in politics and did not express norma¬
tive values associated with participation. The decline of electoral partici¬
pation was most pronounced among individuals without party identifica¬
tion and who did not find voting meaningful. Electoral participation was
largely constant among individuals with strong party identification and
who were convinced about the meaningfulness of voting. For those voters
without such motivations voter turnout was about
20
percentage points
higher in
1996
than in the following elections. This pattern may be ex¬
plained as follows. Once voters started questioning the fundamental belief
that politics in the Czech Republic was going in the right direction, those
without strong motivations for voting stopped participating in subsequent
elections. Alternatively, one could argue that once the initial euphoria from
the fall of the communist regime vanished, turnout by those voters who
did not have some attachment to party or believed voting was meaning¬
less ceased.
Besides explaining electoral participation and its decline over time in
the Czech Republic, this monograph has an additional objective: to explore
if electoral participation affects political representation and if the nature
of representation changes with declining participation. Since electoral
participation is generally far from full participation, it is necessary to
investigate which groups do not participate in an election; and whether
they differ in their expectations of (a) public policies and (b) preferences
-299-
about which parties should be in the parliament and government. Differ¬
ential turnout by various groups may have important consequences for the
composition of governments and the orientation of public policies. The
impact of differential electoral participation is studied in Chapter
9
where
the focus is on the relationship between turnout and electoral gains made
by individual political parties.
The final chapter of the book places the findings within the broader
context of electoral participation research. These findings underlie a dis¬
cussion of specific proposals for changing the rules of election organiza¬
tion in order to increase electoral participation in the Czech Republic.
300- |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Linek, Lukáš 1976- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)1043020845 |
| author_facet | Linek, Lukáš 1976- |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Linek, Lukáš 1976- |
| author_variant | l l ll |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV041279495 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)862802558 (DE-599)BVBBV041279495 |
| edition | 1. vyd. |
| era | Geschichte 1990-2010 gnd |
| era_facet | Geschichte 1990-2010 |
| format | Book |
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| geographic | Tschechien (DE-588)4303381-7 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Tschechien |
| id | DE-604.BV041279495 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-10-07T16:01:59Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9788073253141 |
| language | Czech |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-026252957 |
| oclc_num | 862802558 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 |
| physical | 334 S. |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateSearch | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | Centrum pro Studium Demokracie a Kultury (CDK) |
| record_format | marc |
| series | Politologická řada |
| series2 | Politologická řada |
| spelling | Linek, Lukáš 1976- Verfasser (DE-588)1043020845 aut Kam se ztratili voliči? vysvětlení vývoje volební účasti v České republice v letech 1990 - 2010 Lukáš Linek 1. vyd. Brno Centrum pro Studium Demokracie a Kultury (CDK) 2013 334 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Politologická řada 40 Zsfassung in engl. Sprache Geschichte 1990-2010 gnd rswk-swf Wahlbeteiligung (DE-588)4188909-5 gnd rswk-swf Tschechien (DE-588)4303381-7 gnd rswk-swf Tschechien (DE-588)4303381-7 g Wahlbeteiligung (DE-588)4188909-5 s Geschichte 1990-2010 z DE-604 Politologická řada 40 (DE-604)BV013246254 40 https://www.recensio.net/r/9479dfe79d1f4c80a6436b833db24a51 rezensiert in: Historická sociologie - Historical Sociology, 2015, 1, S. 131-133 Rezension Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen 19 - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=026252957&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen 19 - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=026252957&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Abstract |
| spellingShingle | Linek, Lukáš 1976- Kam se ztratili voliči? vysvětlení vývoje volební účasti v České republice v letech 1990 - 2010 Politologická řada Wahlbeteiligung (DE-588)4188909-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4188909-5 (DE-588)4303381-7 |
| title | Kam se ztratili voliči? vysvětlení vývoje volební účasti v České republice v letech 1990 - 2010 |
| title_auth | Kam se ztratili voliči? vysvětlení vývoje volební účasti v České republice v letech 1990 - 2010 |
| title_exact_search | Kam se ztratili voliči? vysvětlení vývoje volební účasti v České republice v letech 1990 - 2010 |
| title_full | Kam se ztratili voliči? vysvětlení vývoje volební účasti v České republice v letech 1990 - 2010 Lukáš Linek |
| title_fullStr | Kam se ztratili voliči? vysvětlení vývoje volební účasti v České republice v letech 1990 - 2010 Lukáš Linek |
| title_full_unstemmed | Kam se ztratili voliči? vysvětlení vývoje volební účasti v České republice v letech 1990 - 2010 Lukáš Linek |
| title_short | Kam se ztratili voliči? |
| title_sort | kam se ztratili volici vysvetleni vyvoje volebni ucasti v ceske republice v letech 1990 2010 |
| title_sub | vysvětlení vývoje volební účasti v České republice v letech 1990 - 2010 |
| topic | Wahlbeteiligung (DE-588)4188909-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wahlbeteiligung Tschechien |
| url | https://www.recensio.net/r/9479dfe79d1f4c80a6436b833db24a51 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=026252957&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=026252957&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV013246254 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lineklukas kamseztratilivolicivysvetlenivyvojevolebniucastivceskerepublicevletech19902010 |