Assessing climate change: temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cham [u.a.]
Springer
2014
|
| Ausgabe: | 3., [updated and rev.] ed. |
| Schriftenreihe: | Springer Praxis books : environmental sciences
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XXXVI, 816 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 9783319004549 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 010 | |a 2009937587 | ||
| 020 | |a 9783319004549 |c hbk. |9 978-3-319-00454-9 | ||
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Assessing climate change |b temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance |c Donald Rapp |
| 250 | |a 3., [updated and rev.] ed. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Cham [u.a.] |b Springer |c 2014 | |
| 300 | |a XXXVI, 816 S. |b Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
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| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Erscheint auch als |n Online-Ausgabe |z 978-3-319-00455-6 |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m Digitalisierung UB Augsburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=026195974&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804150658710896640 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
1.
Long-term climate change
...................................... 1
1.1
Weather and climate
...................................... 1
1.2
Time scales to characterize climate
........................... 2
1.3
Factors that affect long-term climate
......................... 3
1.3.1
Variability of solar luminosity
........................ 3
1.3.2
Variations in reflected solar flux
...................... 4
1.3.3
Variations in the Earth s orbit
........................ 9
1.3.4
Effect of greenhouse gases on radiant emission by the
Earth
...........................................10
1.4
Ancient climates and CO2 concentration
.......................16
1.4.1
Summary
........................................16
1.4.2
Introduction
.....................................17
1.4.3.
The transition from the LGM to the pre-industrial era
.....21
1.4.4
Paleo
climates and CO2
.............................30
2.
Temperatures during the past few millennia
.........................39
2.1
Use of proxies to estimate historical temperatures
...............39
2.2
Proxies and climate
......................................40
2.2.1
Processing proxy data
..............................40
2.2.2
Challenges in using proxies
..........................41
2.2.3
Combining multiple proxies
..........................41
2.3
The Little Ice Age and the medieval warm period
................43
2.3.1
Proxy evidence for the
LIA
and the MWP
...............43
2.3.2
Anecdotal inferences on the MWP and the
LIA
...........49
2.3.3
Challenges to the notion of the
LIA
and MWP
...........51
2.4
Global and hemispheric average temperatures in recent millennia
.... 57
2.4.1
The
MBH
model
................................57
2.4.2
Other related models
...............................60
2.4.3
Fallacies in reconstruction of millennial temperatures
......60
2.4.3.1
The fallacy of choosing the wrong mean
.........62
vi
Contents
2.4.3.2
Hiding the decline
..........................70
2.4.3.3
Sparse data set
............................75
2.4.3.4
Lack of uniqueness
.........................75
2.4.3.5
Other criticisms
............................77
2.4.3.6
The
Wegman
Report
........................78
2.4.3.7
The paleoclimatic cabal
......................84
2.4.3.8
The climate alarmism cabal
...................89
2.4.4
Proxy analysis
....................................95
2.4.5
Evidence for the MWP and the
LIA
..................105
2.4.6
Asian climate records
..............................109
2.4.7
Regional approaches to the MWP and the
LIA
..........114
2.4.8
Borehole measurements
............................117
2.4.9
Arctic environment change
.........................120
2.4.10
How reliable are proxy methods?
.....................123
2.4.11
The paleoclimatic cabal
............................128
2.4.12
The blogs
.......................................133
2.5
Conclusions on millennium temperature history
................139
3.
Temperatures in the past century
................................143
3.1
Near-surface land measurements
............................143
3.1.1
Introduction
....................................143
3.1.2
Quality and reliability of land temperature measurement
networks
.......................................145
3.1.3
Urban Heat Islands
(UHI)
..........................156
3.2
Ocean temperature measurements
...........................166
3.3
Troposphere temperature measurements
......................172
3.4
Measured Earth, regional, and local surface temperatures
.........174
3.4.1
U.S. surface temperature measurements
................174
3.4.2
Global and hemispheric surface temperatures
............179
3.4.3
Troposphere temperatures
..........................191
3.4.3.1
Measured troposphere temperatures
...........191
3.4.3.2
Temperature plateau:
1998
through
2012........192
3.4.3.3
Climate:
El Niños
and volcanic eruptions vs.
CO2
....................................197
3.4.3.4
Tropospheric and surface temperatures
.........199
3.4.4
20th century climate and
El Niños
....................205
3.4.5
The
1940-1978
temperature dip: effect of aerosols
........214
3.5
Mountain glaciers as climate indicators
......................221
3.6
Antarctic and Arctic temperatures
..........................229
3.6.1
Antarctic temperatures
.............................230
3.6.2
Arctic temperatures
...............................235
3.7
Ocean temperatures
.....................................244
3.8
Utility of a single global temperature
........................248
Contents
vu
4. Global
scares, subjective science, and climatologists
..................251
4.1
Global scares
.......................................251
4.2
Dealing with subjective science
.............................254
4.2.1
Nature of subjective science
—
emergence of consensus
.....254
4.2.2
How consensus becomes orthodoxy
...................258
4.2.3
Counting adherents to the orthodoxy
..................259
4.2.4
Climate science and determinism
.....................261
4.2.5
Implications of uncertainty and extreme events
..........265
4.3
Hyperbole on impacts of global warming
.....................267
4.4
Spreading the gospel
.....................................269
4.5
Climatologists
.......................................273
4.6
The golden rule
.......................................281
4.7
The lunatic fringe
.......................................283
4.8
The role of Google
......................................284
5.
Variability of the Sun
.......................................287
5.1
Solar irradiance
.......................................287
5.1.1
Introduction
....................................287
5.1.2
Measurements of TSI in space since
1978..............290
5.1.3
Short-term TSI models
............................291
5.1.4
Long-term TSI models
.............................292
5.2
Aspects of solar variability
................................293
5.2.1
The solar cycle
...................................293
5.2.2
Sunspots
.......................................293
5.2.3
Faculae
.......................................294
5.2.4
Sunspot indices
..................................295
5.2.5
Estimation of sunspot activity from proxies
.............298
5.2.6
Diameter of the Sun
..............................299
5.2.7
Indices of solar activity
............................300
5.2.8
Effect of the Sun-Earth distance
.....................300
5.3
The Maunder Minimum: John Eddy s study
...................301
5.3.1
Historical telescope observations of sunspots
............301
5.3.2
Historical records of aurorae
........................302
5.3.3
Historical visual observations of sunspots
..............302
5.3.4
^Carbon in tree rings
.............................303
5.3.5
The solar corona
.................................303
5.3.6
Beckman
and Mahoney on Eddy s work
...............304
5.3.7
Eddy s conclusions
................................305
5.4
Historical sunspot levels and recent solar inactivity
.............305
5.5
Solar cycle duration
.....................................310
5.6
Reconstructing TSI in the past
.............................313
5.6.1
Reconstructions based on sunspots, solar cycles, and
solar activity
....................................313
5.6.1.1
Introduction
.............................313
5.6.1.2
Overview of Hoyt and
Schatten...............314
viii Contents
5.6.2
Constant
quiet Sun models
.........................316
5.6.2.1
CQSM
based on sunspot number.............
316
5.6.2.2
CQSM
based on
sunspot
area and
cycle
duration
. 321
5.6.3
The MM temperature model........................
324
5.6.4
Stellar
Ca HK
index
models
........................327
5.6.5
Solar
cycle duration model
.........................337
5.6.5.1
The Sun Melody
...... ..................337
5.6.5.2
Danish Meteorological Institute studies
.........339
5.6.5.3
Hoyt and
Schatten
model
...................343
5.6.6
Coronal source flux model
..........................345
5.6.7
TSI reconstructions based on cosmogenic isotope
proxies
.......................................347
5.6.7.1
Introduction
.............................347
5.6.7.2
Reconstruction of TSI from cosmo-nuclide
production proxies
.........................349
5.6.7.3
Projections for the Holocene
.................351
5.6.8
Temperature changes driven by the Sun
................356
5.6.8.1
Global climate models
......................356
5.6.8.2
Climate sensitivity parameter
.................358
5.6.8.3
Solar activity and climate change
..............363
5.7
Conclusions on TSI
.....................................363
5.8
Solar intensity at ground level
.............................367
6.
The Earth s heat balance and the greenhouse effect.
..................369
6.1
The greenhouse effect
....................................369
6.1.1
Terrestrial examples
...............................369
6.1.2
Simplistic models of the Earth
.......................371
6.1.3
More realistic description
...........................373
6.1.4
Absorption by greenhouse gases
.....................376
6.1.5
Carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas
...................379
6.1.6
Methane as a greenhouse gas
........................380
6.1.7
Water vapor as a greenhouse gas
.....................381
6.2
The Earth s heat balance
.................................392
6.2.1
Introduction
....................................392
6.2.2
Kiehl and Trenberth analysis
........................392
6.2.3
Stephens
et
¿z/. s model
.............................398
6.2.4
Miskolczi s model
................................400
6.2.5
Heat balance of the Earth from
1950
to
2005...........401
6.2.6
Albedo and
emissivi
ty
of the Earth
...................405
6.2.6.1
Albedo of the Earth
.......................405
6.2.6.2
Ocean emissivity
..........................407
6.2.7
Simple models
...................................407
6.2.7.1
Lindzen s adaptive infrared iris
—
cloud feedback
. . 407
6.2.7.2
Willis Eschenbach s thermostat model
..........410
6.2.7.3
Spencer and BrasweH s model
................411
Contents
їх
6.2.7.4 Trends in
middle- and upper-level tropospheric
humidity
................................416
6.2.8
Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of the Earth s
climate system
...................................416
6.2.9
Heat content of the oceans
.........................420
6.2.10
Influence of human activities
........................430
6.2.10.1
Differences between surface temperatures and
tropospheric temperatures
...................430
6.2.10.2
Correlation of surface temperatures with CO2
sources
.................................432
6.2.10.3
Urban heat islands
........................433
6.2.10.4
Heat generation by urbanization
..............433
6.2.10.5
Effects of land-use/land-clearing changes
........434
6.3
Climate variability
......................................437
6.3.1
El Niños
and climate
..............................437
6.3.2.
Interruption of warming
...........................437
6.3.3
North Atlantic climate variability and ocean oscillations
. . . 440
6.3.4
Volcanic eruptions
................................443
6.3.5
Cosmic rays as a source of climate change
..............450
6.4
Global climate models
...................................454
6.4.1
Description of GCMs
.............................454
6.4.2
The IPCC view of climate models
....................455
6.4.3
Uncertainties and limitations of GCMs
................458
6.4.4
Effect of clouds
..................................476
6.5
The relation between ancient climates and
ССЬ
concentration
.....480
6.5.1
Background
.....................................480
6.5.2.
The transition from the LGM to the pre-industrial era
.... 485
6.5.3.
The early Pliocene: three to five million years ago
........496
6.5.4.
The past ~20 million years
.........................498
6.5.5.
Initiation of Antarctic
glaciation
34-33
million years ago.
. . 505
6.5.6.
Peak warming around
40
million years ago
.............508
6.5.7. 60
to
40
million years ago
..........................508
6.5.8. 100
to
300
million years ago
........................513
6.5.9.
Estimates of climate sensitivity based on CO2 and climate
in the Phanerozoic Eon
............................513
6.5.9.1.
Introduction
.............................513
6.5.9.2.
Climate during the Phanerozoic Eon
...........513
6.5.9.3
CO2 variability during the Phanerozoic Eon
.....517
6.5.9.4.
Comparison of Phanerozoic climate with CO2
concentrations
............................521
6.5.9.5.
Climate sensitivity assuming the force is
with CO2
................................524
6.5.9.6.
Correlation with galactic cosmic rays
...........525
6.5.9.7.
Oxygen in the Phanerozoic atmosphere
.........526
6.5.9.8.
Phanerozoic summary
......................527
Contents
6.5.9.9
Concluding remarks
.......................528
6.5.10
Relationship between sea level and climate forcing
by CO2 on geological timescales
..............529
7.
Anthropogenic influences on climate change
........................533
7.1
CO2 concentration past and present
.........................533
7.1.1
Introduction
.................................... 533
7.1.2
Measurements and proxies
.......................... 536
7.1.3
Carbon cycle: CO2 fluxes
........................... 542
7.1.4
CO2 variations in glacial-interglacial cycles
............. 543
7.1.5
CO2 and global warming
........................... 554
7.2
Projections of future CO2 concentration by climatologists
........ 557
7.2.1
CO2 emissions and build-up in the 21st century
..........557
7.2.2
Persistence of CO2 beyond the 21st century
.............565
7.2.3
Practicality of reducing CO2 build-up in the 21st century.
. . 567
7.2.4
Constraints on CO2 production imposed by the limits
of fossil fuels
....................................573
7.3
Black carbon as a source of
20th-century
global warming
.........577
7.3.1
Warming early in the 20th century
....................577
7.3.2
Effect of carbon deposition on ice and snow
............583
7.3.3
Rate of emission of carbon in the 20th century
..........585
7.3.4
Estimated role of
ВС
in Arctic warming
...............586
7.3.5
Measurement of
ВС
in Arctic ice cores
................589
7.4
Role of
sulfate
aerosols
..................................590
7.5
Land clearing and surface development
......................591
8.
Impacts of global warming
.....................................597
8.1
Alarmists and skeptics
...................................597
8.2
Future increases in global temperature
.......................601
8.3
Sea level rise, the ice sheets, and sea ice
......................604
8.3.1
Historical sea level rise since the LGM
................604
8.3.2
Measurement of sea level
...........................607
8.3.3
Measured sea level change in the 20th century
...........609
8.3.4
Recent sea level change
............................618
8.3.5
Global warming and future sea level change
............626
8.3.6
Evidence from previous
déglaciations
..................638
8.3.7
Impact of sea level rise
............................641
8.3.8
Sea ice extent
....................................643
8.3.9
Summary
.......................................653
8.4
Changes in precipitation: floods, drought, and storms
...........654
8.4.1
Drought
........................................654
8.4.2
Floods
.........................................656
8.4.3
Storms
.........................................656
8.4.3.1
Tropical hurricanes
........................656
8.4.3.2
Tornadoes
...............................664
Contents
8.4.3.3 Extreme
weather..........................
665
8.5
Species extinction
.......................................667
8.6
Vegetation
............................................671
8.7
Coral reefs
............................................671
8.8
Food production
.......................................672
9.
Global climate change and public policy
...........................675
9.1
U.S. government policy actions and inactions
..................675
9.2
The Kyoto Protocol
.....................................679
9.2.1
Description of the Kyoto Protocol
....................679
9.2.2
Commentary on the Kyoto Protocol
..................681
9.2.3
Future of the Kyoto Protocol
.......................685
9.3
Economics: will it cost more to do nothing?
...................686
9.3.1
The Stern Report
................................. 686
9.3.2
Nordhaus s review of the Stern Report
................ 690
9.3.3
Other critiques of the Stern report
.................... 692
9.3.4
Investment opportunities in climate change
............. 697
9.4
Economic analyses
...................................... 698
9.5
Renewable energy
....................................... 701
9.6 Pirilä s
summary
....................................... 705
10.
Final remarks
..............................................707
10.1
Conclusions
...........................................707
10.2
The nine questions
......................................718
10.3
About climatology and climatologists
........................721
10.4
Logical fallacies used in climate discussions
...................726
Appendix I: Review of the film An Inconvenient Truth
..................729
Appendix II: Warming of oceans by increases in greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere
........................737
A.2.1 Brief overview of the model
.............................737
A.2.2 The initial response to forcing at the ocean surface
............738
A.2.3 Establishment of a new equilibrium
........................741
A.2.4 Zero th order model
...................................741
A.2.5 First order model
.....................................744
A.2.6 Analyses by Ramanathan
(1981)..........................746
A.2.7 Summary of models
...................................748
A.2.8 Effective back radiation at the ocean surface
.................749
References
....................................................755
Index
......................,,,,,,.....,.......... . ...........,.....811
|
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| author | Rapp, Donald 1934- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)135633494 |
| author_facet | Rapp, Donald 1934- |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Rapp, Donald 1934- |
| author_variant | d r dr |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV041221428 |
| classification_rvk | RB 10438 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)890051666 (DE-599)GBV609006215 |
| discipline | Geographie |
| edition | 3., [updated and rev.] ed. |
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| id | DE-604.BV041221428 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T00:42:26Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783319004549 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2009937587 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-026195974 |
| oclc_num | 890051666 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-11 DE-703 DE-384 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| owner_facet | DE-11 DE-703 DE-384 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| physical | XXXVI, 816 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publishDateSearch | 2014 |
| publishDateSort | 2014 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Springer Praxis books : environmental sciences |
| spelling | Rapp, Donald 1934- Verfasser (DE-588)135633494 aut Assessing climate change temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance Donald Rapp 3., [updated and rev.] ed. Cham [u.a.] Springer 2014 XXXVI, 816 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Springer Praxis books : environmental sciences Erwärmung Meteorologie (DE-588)4344515-9 gnd rswk-swf Sonnenstrahlung (DE-588)4139254-1 gnd rswk-swf Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd rswk-swf Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 s Erwärmung Meteorologie (DE-588)4344515-9 s DE-604 Sonnenstrahlung (DE-588)4139254-1 s Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-3-319-00455-6 Digitalisierung UB Augsburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=026195974&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Rapp, Donald 1934- Assessing climate change temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance Erwärmung Meteorologie (DE-588)4344515-9 gnd Sonnenstrahlung (DE-588)4139254-1 gnd Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4344515-9 (DE-588)4139254-1 (DE-588)4164199-1 |
| title | Assessing climate change temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance |
| title_auth | Assessing climate change temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance |
| title_exact_search | Assessing climate change temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance |
| title_full | Assessing climate change temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance Donald Rapp |
| title_fullStr | Assessing climate change temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance Donald Rapp |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing climate change temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance Donald Rapp |
| title_short | Assessing climate change |
| title_sort | assessing climate change temperatures solar radiation and heat balance |
| title_sub | temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance |
| topic | Erwärmung Meteorologie (DE-588)4344515-9 gnd Sonnenstrahlung (DE-588)4139254-1 gnd Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Erwärmung Meteorologie Sonnenstrahlung Klimaänderung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=026195974&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rappdonald assessingclimatechangetemperaturessolarradiationandheatbalance |