Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle
This paper argues that incorporating information about the financial cycle is important to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. Conceptually, identifying potential output with non-inflationary output is too restrictive. Potential output is seen as sustainable; yet experience indicat...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
[Basel]
Bank for Internat. Settlements
2013
|
| Schriftenreihe: | BIS working papers
404 |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper argues that incorporating information about the financial cycle is important to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. Conceptually, identifying potential output with non-inflationary output is too restrictive. Potential output is seen as sustainable; yet experience indicates that output may be on an unsustainable path even if inflation is low and stable whenever financial imbalances are building up. More generally, as long as potential output is identified with the non-cyclical component of output fluctuations and financial factors play a key role in explaining the cyclical part, ignoring these factors leaves out valuable information. Within a simple and transparent framework, we show that including information about the financial cycle can yield measures of potential output and output gaps that are not only estimated more precisely, but also much more robust in real time. In the context of policy applications, such "finance-neutral" output gaps are shown to yield more reliable estimates of cyclically adjusted budget balances and to serve as complementary guides for monetary policy. Potential output ; output gap ; financial cycle ; monetary policy ; fiscal policy |
| Beschreibung: | Parallel als Online-Ausg. erschienen |
| Beschreibung: | V, 30 S. graph. Darst. 30 cm |
Internformat
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Borio, Claudio E. V. |d ca. 20./21. Jh. |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)114449406 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Rethinking potential output |b embedding information about the financial cycle |c by Claudio Borio, Piti Disyatat and Mikael Juselius |
| 264 | 1 | |a [Basel] |b Bank for Internat. Settlements |c 2013 | |
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| 490 | 1 | |a BIS working papers |v 404 | |
| 500 | |a Parallel als Online-Ausg. erschienen | ||
| 520 | 8 | |a This paper argues that incorporating information about the financial cycle is important to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. Conceptually, identifying potential output with non-inflationary output is too restrictive. Potential output is seen as sustainable; yet experience indicates that output may be on an unsustainable path even if inflation is low and stable whenever financial imbalances are building up. More generally, as long as potential output is identified with the non-cyclical component of output fluctuations and financial factors play a key role in explaining the cyclical part, ignoring these factors leaves out valuable information. Within a simple and transparent framework, we show that including information about the financial cycle can yield measures of potential output and output gaps that are not only estimated more precisely, but also much more robust in real time. In the context of policy applications, such "finance-neutral" output gaps are shown to yield more reliable estimates of cyclically adjusted budget balances and to serve as complementary guides for monetary policy. Potential output ; output gap ; financial cycle ; monetary policy ; fiscal policy | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Disyatat, Piti |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)171863720 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Juselius, Mikael |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 830 | 0 | |a BIS working papers |v 404 |w (DE-604)BV005629122 |9 404 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804150655015714816 |
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| any_adam_object | |
| author | Borio, Claudio E. V. ca. 20./21. Jh Disyatat, Piti Juselius, Mikael |
| author_GND | (DE-588)114449406 (DE-588)171863720 |
| author_facet | Borio, Claudio E. V. ca. 20./21. Jh Disyatat, Piti Juselius, Mikael |
| author_role | aut aut aut |
| author_sort | Borio, Claudio E. V. ca. 20./21. Jh |
| author_variant | c e v b cev cevb p d pd m j mj |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV041218954 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)903103973 (DE-599)GBV743954513 |
| dewey-full | 338.542 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 338 - Production |
| dewey-raw | 338.542 |
| dewey-search | 338.542 |
| dewey-sort | 3338.542 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV041218954 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T00:42:22Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-026193556 |
| oclc_num | 903103973 |
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| owner_facet | DE-188 |
| physical | V, 30 S. graph. Darst. 30 cm |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateSearch | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | Bank for Internat. Settlements |
| record_format | marc |
| series | BIS working papers |
| series2 | BIS working papers |
| spelling | Borio, Claudio E. V. ca. 20./21. Jh. Verfasser (DE-588)114449406 aut Rethinking potential output embedding information about the financial cycle by Claudio Borio, Piti Disyatat and Mikael Juselius [Basel] Bank for Internat. Settlements 2013 V, 30 S. graph. Darst. 30 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier BIS working papers 404 Parallel als Online-Ausg. erschienen This paper argues that incorporating information about the financial cycle is important to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. Conceptually, identifying potential output with non-inflationary output is too restrictive. Potential output is seen as sustainable; yet experience indicates that output may be on an unsustainable path even if inflation is low and stable whenever financial imbalances are building up. More generally, as long as potential output is identified with the non-cyclical component of output fluctuations and financial factors play a key role in explaining the cyclical part, ignoring these factors leaves out valuable information. Within a simple and transparent framework, we show that including information about the financial cycle can yield measures of potential output and output gaps that are not only estimated more precisely, but also much more robust in real time. In the context of policy applications, such "finance-neutral" output gaps are shown to yield more reliable estimates of cyclically adjusted budget balances and to serve as complementary guides for monetary policy. Potential output ; output gap ; financial cycle ; monetary policy ; fiscal policy Disyatat, Piti Verfasser (DE-588)171863720 aut Juselius, Mikael Verfasser aut BIS working papers 404 (DE-604)BV005629122 404 |
| spellingShingle | Borio, Claudio E. V. ca. 20./21. Jh Disyatat, Piti Juselius, Mikael Rethinking potential output embedding information about the financial cycle BIS working papers |
| title | Rethinking potential output embedding information about the financial cycle |
| title_auth | Rethinking potential output embedding information about the financial cycle |
| title_exact_search | Rethinking potential output embedding information about the financial cycle |
| title_full | Rethinking potential output embedding information about the financial cycle by Claudio Borio, Piti Disyatat and Mikael Juselius |
| title_fullStr | Rethinking potential output embedding information about the financial cycle by Claudio Borio, Piti Disyatat and Mikael Juselius |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rethinking potential output embedding information about the financial cycle by Claudio Borio, Piti Disyatat and Mikael Juselius |
| title_short | Rethinking potential output |
| title_sort | rethinking potential output embedding information about the financial cycle |
| title_sub | embedding information about the financial cycle |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV005629122 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT borioclaudioev rethinkingpotentialoutputembeddinginformationaboutthefinancialcycle AT disyatatpiti rethinkingpotentialoutputembeddinginformationaboutthefinancialcycle AT juseliusmikael rethinkingpotentialoutputembeddinginformationaboutthefinancialcycle |