Holdings: China's Macroeconomic Outlook

China's Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2012

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Bibliographic Details
Format:	Electronic eBook
Language:	English
Published:	Berlin ; Heidelberg Springer 2013
Series:	Current Chinese Economic Report Series
Subjects:	Prognose 2012-2013 Wirtschaftsentwicklung China
Online Access:	BTU01 FHA01 FHM01 FHN01 FHO01 FHR01 FKE01 FNU01 FWS01 FWS02 HWR01 UBG01 UBM01 UBT01 UBY01 UPA01 Volltext Inhaltsverzeichnis Abstract
Physical Description:	Online-Ressource (XIII, 40 p. 19 illus., 5 illus. in color)
ISBN:	9783642369230
DOI:	10.1007/978-3-642-36923-0

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adam_text	CHINA S MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK / : 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS / INHALTSVERZEICHNIS REVIEW OF MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2012 FORECAST FOR 2012-2013 POLICY SIMULATION POLICY IMPLICATION AND RECOMMENDATIONS COMMENTS AND DISCUSSIONS DIESES SCHRIFTSTUECK WURDE MASCHINELL ERZEUGT. CHINA S MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK / : 2013 ABSTRACT / INHALTSTEXT OWING TO THE DECLINE IN DOMESTIC INVESTMENT AND TRADE WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD, CHINA’S REAL GDP IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2012 WAS LOWER THAN EXPECTED. BASED ON FORECASTS FROM CHINA’S QUARTERLY MACROECONOMIC MODEL (CQMM), THE SLOWDOWN OF THE GROWTH RATE IN 2013 WILL BE MODERATE AS A RESULT OF MODESTLY PROACTIVE MACRO CONTROL POLICY. GDP WOULD GROW AT 8.01 PERCENT IN 2012, AND THEN REBOUND TO 8.29 IN 2013; CPI WOULD FALL TO A 2.9 PERCENT IN 2012, AND THEN WOULD PICK UP TO 3.27 PERCENT IN 2013. IN THE SCENARIO IN WHICH THE SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS IN THE EURO AREA WORSENED IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2012, REAL GDP IS FORECAST AT 7.71 PERCENT FOR 2012 AND 7.5 PERCENT FOR 2013. EVEN IF THE EXTERNAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMES WORSE, CHINA’S GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO STAY AT ABOVE 7.5 PERCENT, WHICH MIGHT BE A STEADY GROWTH RATE FOR THE NEAR FUTURE. IF CHINA PLANS TO ACHIEVE A HIGHER GROWTH RATE BY LAUNCHING THE “2 TRILLION MASSIVE INVESTMENT PACKAGE”, THE GROWTH RATE OF GDP COULD BE INCREASED TO 8.25 AND 8.86 PERCENT IN 2012 AND 2013 WITH A RISK OF INFLATION AND WORSENING ECONOMIC STRUCTURE. THE POLICY IMPLICATION FROM CQMM: ON ONE HAND THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THE GROWTH RATE OF AROUND 8 PERCENT BY MEANS OF TIMELY FINE-TUNING OF MONETARY POLICIES; ON THE OTHER HAND, THE EMPHASIS OF THE MICRO CONTROL SHOULD BE PLACED ON STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH FISCAL POLICIES. IN THE LONG RUN, DEEPENING ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL REFORM WILL BE CRUCIAL TO REMOVE THE SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL IMBALANCE AND INSTITUTIONAL BARRIERS TO MARKET COMPETITION, TO ACCELERATE THE TRANSFORMATION OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS, AND FINALLY TO MAINTAIN A SUSTAINABLE GROWTH RATE. DIESES SCHRIFTSTUECK WURDE MASCHINELL ERZEUGT.
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geographic	China (DE-588)4009937-4 gnd
geographic_facet	China
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isbn	9783642369230
language	English
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owner	DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-739 DE-92 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-2070s DE-M347 DE-703 DE-634 DE-Aug4 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-1051 DE-1049 DE-859 DE-863 DE-BY-FWS DE-862 DE-BY-FWS DE-706
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physical	Online-Ressource (XIII, 40 p. 19 illus., 5 illus. in color)
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publishDate	2013
publishDateSearch	2013
publishDateSort	2013
publisher	Springer
record_format	marc
series2	Current Chinese Economic Report Series
spellingShingle	China's Macroeconomic Outlook Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2012 Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)4066438-7 (DE-588)4009937-4
title	China's Macroeconomic Outlook Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2012
title_auth	China's Macroeconomic Outlook Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2012
title_exact_search	China's Macroeconomic Outlook Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2012
title_full	China's Macroeconomic Outlook Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2012
title_fullStr	China's Macroeconomic Outlook Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2012
title_full_unstemmed	China's Macroeconomic Outlook Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2012
title_short	China's Macroeconomic Outlook
title_sort	china s macroeconomic outlook quarterly forecast and analysis report september 2012
title_sub	Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2012
topic	Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd
topic_facet	Wirtschaftsentwicklung China
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work_keys_str_mv	AT centerformacroeconomicresearchofxiamenuniversity chinasmacroeconomicoutlookquarterlyforecastandanalysisreportseptember2012

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