The future of the chemical industry by 2050:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Weinheim
Wiley-VCH
2013
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltstext Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XIV, 322 S. Ill., graph. Darst. 25 cm |
| ISBN: | 352733257X 9783527332571 9783527656998 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 300 | |a XIV, 322 S. |b Ill., graph. Darst. |c 25 cm | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
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| 648 | 7 | |a Prognose 2050 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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IMAGE 1
CONTENTS
PREFACE I X
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS X I I I
INTRODUCTION 1
METHODOLOGY 4
1 GLOBAL MEGATRENDS BY 2050 11
1.1 SOCIAL MEGATRENDS 16
1.1.1 POPULATION GROWTH 16
1.1.2 DEMOGRAPHICS 18
1.1.2.1 AREA AND AGE DISTRIBUTION 18 1.1.2.2 CHANGE IN AGE DISTRIBUTION
18 1.1.3 URBANIZATION 25
1.1.3.1 MEGACITIES 27
1.2 ECONOMIC MEGATRENDS 29
1.2.1 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT(FDI) 40 1.3 POLITICAL MEGATREND 42
1.3.1 TREND - A NEW INTERNATIONAL ORDER 43
1.3.1.1 SUB TREND - THE EMERGENCE OF THE BRIC ECONOMIES 43 1.3.1.2 SUB
TREND - CORPORATE MEGA ECONOMIES - (CME) 46 1.3.1.3 SUB TREND - SOCIAL
NETWORKS 50 1.3.2 TREND - AN INCREASING ROLE OF GOVERNMENTS 54 1.4
ENERGY MEGATRENDS 61
1.4.1 RECENT ENERGY TRANSITIONS 63 1.4.2 KEY LESSONS FROM RECENT ENERGY
MIX TRANSITIONS 69 1.4.3 ENERGY LIFE CYCLE 69
1.4.4 ENERGY SUCCESS CRITERIA 69
1.4.5 SHOCKS ARE A VALUABLE SOURCE O F INFORMATION 70 1.4.6 TRANSITIONS
OCCUR IN "LIFE" 70
1.4.7 THE GOLDEN RULE - ECONOMICS DICTATE ENERGY TRANSITIONS 70 1.4.8
TRANSITIONS ALWAYS OCCUR, THE QUESTION IS WHEN: THE OIL PEAK 71 1.4.9
THE OIL PEAK - M.KING HUBBERT 74
HTTP://D-NB.INFO/1025272064
IMAGE 2
V I I CONTENTS
1.4.10 OPEC - ENERGY PROJECTIONS TO 2030 75
1.4.11 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS 80 1.4.11.1 NUCLEAR ENERGY - THE AFTERMATH O
F FUKUSHIMA 80 1.4.11.2 SHALE GAS THE "GAME CHANGER" - NATURAL GAS THE
ENERGY O F THE FUTURE 85
1.5 CLIMATE CHANGE 99
1.5.1 BUSINESS CASE - EU TIRE LABELING - CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTION IN THE
TIRE AND AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY 113 1.6 WILD CARDS 129
1.6.1 POLITICAL 131
1.6.2 SOCIAL 131
1.6.3 TECHNOLOGICAL 132
1.6.4 TRANSPORTATION 132
1.7 ACCELERATORS - INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND "SINGULARITY" 132
APPENDIX: CLIMATE CHANGE 139
2 THE WORLD BY 2050 141
2.1 "A MUCH LARGER, WEALTHIER, HEALTHIER, AND SUSTAINABLE WORLD" 141
2.1.1 METHODOLOGY 144
2.2 STATUS O F THE WORLD - 2010 145
2.3 THE WORLD IN 2050 146
2.3.1 BAU SCENARIO 146
2.3.2 SUSTAINABLE SCENARIO 155
APPENDIX: ROADMAPS TO A WORLD OF4000 G O F CO2 PER CAPITA PER DAY 161
3 THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY IN 2010 163
3.1 CHEMICAL INDUSTRY: ECONOMIC RELEVANCE 163 3.2 CHEMICAL INDUSTRY:
TECHNOLOGICAL RELEVANCE 166 3.3 INDUSTRY RELEVANCE: PROFITABILITY 168
3.4 FEEDSTOCKS AND ENERGY 171
3.5 MAJOR SECTORS AND PRODUCTS O F THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY 173 3.6
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND COMPANIES 173
3.7 SAFETY 184
3.8 BACKGROUND 186
3.8.1 RECENT HISTORY OF THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY EXCLUDING PHARMACEUTICALS
186 3.8.1.1 1750-1850 INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND INORGANIC CHEMISTRY 187
3.8.1.2 1850 SYNTHETIC DYES FROM COAL FOR TEXTILES, AND CHLORINE BLEACH
187 3.8.1.3 1870 CELLULOID 187
3.8.1.4 1880 RAYON FROM WOOD FIBERS 188 3.8.1.5 1900 ELECTROLYSIS O F
BRINE (CHLORINE) 188 3.8.1.6 1913 SYNTHETIC FERTILIZERS 189 3.8.1.7
1910-1920 STEAM CRACKER (ETHYLENE, PROPYLENE AND BUTADIENE) 190
IMAGE 3
CONTENTS I V I I
3.8.1.8 1920-1930 - STYRENE CRACKING (ETHYL-BENZENE AND STYRENE)
CRACKING 190
3.8.1.9 POLYAMIDE NYLON (DUPONT) 190 3.8.1.10 1930S - SYNTHETIC RUBBER
190 3.8.1.11 1950S - PLASTICS DEMAND EXPLODES 191 3.8.1.12 1960S
INTERNATIONALIZATION 194
3.8.1.13 2010-2050 - THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY LEADS THE REVOLUTION AGAINST
CLIMATE CHANGE 194 3.9 CONCLUSION 194
3.10 SUMMARY - INDUSTRY MAJOR FEATURES AND UPCOMING MEGATRENDS 195 3.11
MAJOR FEATURES OF THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY 197 3.11.1 SUMMARY: GLOBAL MAJOR
MEGATRENDS 199
BIBLIOGRAPHY 200
4 IMPACT ASSESSMENT O F THE GLOBAL MEGATRENDS ON THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
201 4.1 INTRODUCTION 201
4.2 MEGATRENDS WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACT INTO THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
(GLOBAL & AREA LEVEL) 207 4.3 MEGATRENDS WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACT IN THE
INDUSTRY (AREA LEVEL) (FIGURE 4.4) 208
4.4 MEGATRENDS WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACT INTO THE DIFFERENT FEATURES O F
THE INDUSTRY 210 4.5 MAJOR RESULTS FOR THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY GLOBALLY
212 4.6 MAJOR RESULTS FOR THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY IN THE ADV ECONOMIES 214
4.7 MAJOR RESULTS FOR THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY IN THE BRIC ECONOMIES 216
4.8 MAJOR RESULTS FOR THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY IN THE REST ECONOMIES 218
5 THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY BY 2050 221
5.1 INTRODUCTION 221
5.2 FEATURE 1: THE RELEVANCE O F THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY 225 5.2.1
ECONOMIC RELEVANCE 226
5.2.1.1 CHEMICALS AND PHARMACEUTICALS BY 2050 - PER CAPITA DEMAND IN $US
229
5.2.2 TECHNOLOGICAL RELEVANCE 236 5.2.2.1 THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY - LONG
TERM CYCLES 236 5.2.3 PROFITABILITY 241
5.3 FEATURE 2: INPUTS - FEEDSTOCKS 245
5.3.1 BAU SCENARIO FOR FEEDSTOCKS BY 2050 247 5.3.2 FEEDSTOCK SIMULATION
II BY 2050: "SHALE GAS I - ETHANE + 20% GLOBALLY" 250 5.3.3 SIMULATION
II BY 2050: "SHALE GAS II - ETHANE AT MAXIMUM CAPACITY
GLOBALLY" - (UNREAL) 252 5.3.4 CONCLUSION AND FEEDSTOCK ALTERNATIVES 254
IMAGE 4
V I I I | CONTENTS
5.4 FEATURE 3: OUTPUTS - PRODUCTS 256
5.4.1 GLOBAL ETHYLENE MARKET BY 2050 - BAU SCENARIO 258 5.5 FEATURE 4:
CLIMATE CHANGE - GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS - CO2 EMISSIONS 264 5.5.1
HISTORICAL AND FUTURE SCENARIOS ON WORLD CO2 EMISSIONS 268
5.5.2 SUMMARY - GLOBAL EMISSION TRADING SYSTEMS IN OPERATION 277 5.5.2.1
CHEMICAL INDUSTRY - GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS ABATEMENT IN 2005 281 5.6
FEATURE 5: INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 283
5.6.1 MARKETS - LARGEST WORLD MARKETS 284 5.6.1.1 CHEMICALS 284
5.6.1.2 PHARMACEUTICALS 284 5.6.2 PER CAPITA DEMAND 287
5.6.2.1 CHEMICALS 287
5.6.2.2 PHARMACEUTICALS 289 5.6.3 COMPANIES - CHANGES IN GLOBAL SALES
RANKINGS AND COMPANY STRUCTURES 291
5.7 FEATURE 6: SOCIAL AWARENESS 294
APPENDIX - CLIMATE CHANGE 296
6 CONCLUSION 307
APPENDIX 315
INDEX 319 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Cayuela Valencia, Rafael |
| author_facet | Cayuela Valencia, Rafael |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Cayuela Valencia, Rafael |
| author_variant | v r c vr vrc |
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| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 338 - Production |
| dewey-raw | 338.4766 |
| dewey-search | 338.4766 |
| dewey-sort | 3338.4766 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Chemie / Pharmazie Allgemeines Allgemeine Naturwissenschaft Technik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| era | Prognose 2050 gnd |
| era_facet | Prognose 2050 |
| format | Book |
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| isbn | 352733257X 9783527332571 9783527656998 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Cayuela Valencia, Rafael Verfasser aut The future of the chemical industry by 2050 Rafael Cayuela Valencia Weinheim Wiley-VCH 2013 XIV, 322 S. Ill., graph. Darst. 25 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Prognose 2050 gnd rswk-swf Chemische Industrie (DE-588)4009848-5 gnd rswk-swf Chemische Industrie (DE-588)4009848-5 s Prognose 2050 z DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe, EPUB 978-3-527-65701-8 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe, MOBI 978-3-527-65700-1 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe, PDF 978-3-527-65702-5 X:MVB text/html http://deposit.dnb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=4102911&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm Inhaltstext DNB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025782417&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Cayuela Valencia, Rafael The future of the chemical industry by 2050 Chemische Industrie (DE-588)4009848-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4009848-5 |
| title | The future of the chemical industry by 2050 |
| title_auth | The future of the chemical industry by 2050 |
| title_exact_search | The future of the chemical industry by 2050 |
| title_full | The future of the chemical industry by 2050 Rafael Cayuela Valencia |
| title_fullStr | The future of the chemical industry by 2050 Rafael Cayuela Valencia |
| title_full_unstemmed | The future of the chemical industry by 2050 Rafael Cayuela Valencia |
| title_short | The future of the chemical industry by 2050 |
| title_sort | the future of the chemical industry by 2050 |
| topic | Chemische Industrie (DE-588)4009848-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Chemische Industrie |
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