Russia's comparative advantages in foreign trade: forecasting potential dynamics and identifying stimulation measures
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Frankfurt am Main [u.a.]
Lang
2013
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Schriften zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung
21 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Inhaltstext Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | 135 S. |
| ISBN: | 9783631639931 3631639937 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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IMAGE 1
CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION 9
2 FORECASTING RUSSIAN FOREIGN TRADE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES 15 2.1
INTRODUCTION 15
2.2 THE CONCEPTS O F COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES 16
2.2.1 REVEALED COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES 16
2.2.2 PROSPECTIVE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES 18
2.2.3 IMPLICATIONS O F THE PCA INDEX 23
2.3 EMPIRICAL APPLICATION 25
2.3.1 DATA DESCRIPTION 25
2.3.2 THE EXAMPLE O F THE NEW EU MEMBER STATES 27
2.3.3 RUSSIAN COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES 31
2.4 CONCLUSION 35
2.5 APPENDIX 37
3 OPTIMIZATION METHODS FOR DYNAMIC PANEL DATA MODEL SELECTION 41 3.1
INTRODUCTION 41
3.2 INNOVATIONS: FACTORS AND MODEL FRAMEWORK 42
3.2.1 ADVANCED HYPOTHESES AND DATA DESCRIPTION 43
3.2.2 MODEL SPECIFICATION 45
3.3 MODEL SELECTION PROCEDURE 47
3.3.1 OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM 47
3.3.2 HEURISTIC ALGORITHMS 49
3.4 MONTE-CARLO STUDY 53
3.4.1 DATA GENERATING PROCESS 53
3.4.2 SIMULATION RESULTS 53
3.5 EMPIRICAL RESULTS ON THE EXAMPLE O F RUSSIA 56
3.6 CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK 61
3.7 APPENDIX 63
3.7.1 DESCRIPTION O F THE DATA USED 63
3.7.2 SYSTEM GMM ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE 66
HTTP://D-NB.INFO/1028414226
IMAGE 2
8
CONTENTS
4 MODEL SELECTION FOR LEADING INDICATORS IN RUSSIA AND GERMANY 69 4.1
INTRODUCTION 69
4.2 DATA AND MODELLING FRAMEWORK 71
4.2.1 DATA DESCRIPTION 71
4.2.2 MODEL SPECIFICATION 74
4.2.3 GOODNESS O F FORECASTS 75
4.3 RESULTS O F THE STANDARD VAR MODEL SELECTION 76
4.4 HEURISTIC ALGORITHM AND RESULTING MODELS 78
4.4.1 IN-SAMPLE FIT 81
4.4.2 STATIC FORECASTS AND SIGNIFICANCE TESTING 81
4.4.3 DYNAMIC FORECAST 86
4.5 CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK 88
4.6 APPENDIX 89
4.6.1 TESTS O F NONSTATIONARITY 89
4.6.2 LAG LENGTH SELECTION 90
4.6.3 FORECASTS' BIAS ANALYSIS 91
4.6.4 FORECAST ACCURACY IN RELATION TO NF 92
4.6.5 FORECAST ACCURACY IN RELATION TO AR 93
5 A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE LASSO-TYPE AND HEURISTIC METHODS 95 5.1
INTRODUCTION 95
5.2 MODEL SELECTION STRATEGIES 96
5.2.1 LEAST ABSOLUTE SHRINKAGE AND SELECTION OPERATOR . . . . 96 5.2.2
LASSO MODIFICATIONS 101
5.2.3 HEURISTIC OPTIMIZATION METHODS 104
5.3 MONTE-CARLO STUDY 107
5.3.1 DATA GENERATING PROCESS 108
5.3.2 SIMULATION RESULTS 109
5.4 APPLICATION ON A CROSS-COUNTRY GROWTH MODEL 116
5.5 CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK 118
5.6 APPENDIX 120
6 CONCLUSION 121
BIBLIOGRAPHY 123 |
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| id | DE-604.BV040671344 |
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| isbn | 9783631639931 3631639937 |
| language | English |
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| physical | 135 S. |
| publishDate | 2013 |
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| series | Schriften zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung |
| series2 | Schriften zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung |
| spelling | Savin, Ivan Verfasser (DE-588)143358839 aut Russia's comparative advantages in foreign trade forecasting potential dynamics and identifying stimulation measures Ivan Savin Frankfurt am Main [u.a.] Lang 2013 135 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Schriften zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung 21 Internationale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit (DE-588)4027386-6 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd rswk-swf Außenhandel (DE-588)4003832-4 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g Außenhandel (DE-588)4003832-4 s Internationale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit (DE-588)4027386-6 s Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 Schriften zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung 21 (DE-604)BV012708439 21 X:MVB application/pdf http://www.peterlang.com/exportdatas/exportfiles/onix/toc/9783631639931_toc.pdf Inhaltsverzeichnis X:MVB text/html http://deposit.dnb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=4198685&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm Inhaltstext DNB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025497901&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Savin, Ivan Russia's comparative advantages in foreign trade forecasting potential dynamics and identifying stimulation measures Schriften zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung Internationale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit (DE-588)4027386-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd Außenhandel (DE-588)4003832-4 gnd |
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| title | Russia's comparative advantages in foreign trade forecasting potential dynamics and identifying stimulation measures |
| title_auth | Russia's comparative advantages in foreign trade forecasting potential dynamics and identifying stimulation measures |
| title_exact_search | Russia's comparative advantages in foreign trade forecasting potential dynamics and identifying stimulation measures |
| title_full | Russia's comparative advantages in foreign trade forecasting potential dynamics and identifying stimulation measures Ivan Savin |
| title_fullStr | Russia's comparative advantages in foreign trade forecasting potential dynamics and identifying stimulation measures Ivan Savin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Russia's comparative advantages in foreign trade forecasting potential dynamics and identifying stimulation measures Ivan Savin |
| title_short | Russia's comparative advantages in foreign trade |
| title_sort | russia s comparative advantages in foreign trade forecasting potential dynamics and identifying stimulation measures |
| title_sub | forecasting potential dynamics and identifying stimulation measures |
| topic | Internationale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit (DE-588)4027386-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd Außenhandel (DE-588)4003832-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Internationale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit Prognose Ökonometrie Außenhandel Russland Aufsatzsammlung |
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| volume_link | (DE-604)BV012708439 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT savinivan russiascomparativeadvantagesinforeigntradeforecastingpotentialdynamicsandidentifyingstimulationmeasures |
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