Assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods
Assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods:

"The authors apply stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
1. Verfasser: Karam, Philippe D. (VerfasserIn)
Format: Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: [Washington, D.C] World Bank 2006
Schriftenreihe:Policy research working paper 3821
Schlagworte:
Entwicklungsländer
Capital movements > Developing countries
Debts, External > Developing countries
Fiscal policy > Developing countries
Stochastic analysis
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Zusammenfassung:"The authors apply stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility of output, financial fragility, the endogenous response of the risk premium, and sudden stops in private capital flows. The vulnerability of external debt is sensitive to the determination of the exchange rate and to the pricing of traded goods. The authors show that fiscal policy can act in a preemptive manner to prevent the debt burden from rising significantly over the medium term. This requires flexibility in fiscal planning, which many emerging market economies lack. Emerging market economies therefore face a difficult tradeoff between managing the risk of a debt crisis and pursuing other important fiscal policy objectives. "--World Bank web site
Beschreibung:Includes bibliographical references. - Title from PDF file as viewed on 1/17/2006
Erscheinungsjahr in Vorlageform:[2006]
Weitere Ausgabe: Karam, Philippe D: Assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods
Beschreibung:1 Online-Ressource
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