Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach
Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela: A Structural Time Series Approach

Real GDP and oil prices are decomposed into common stochastic trend and cycle processes using structural time series models. Potential real GDP is represented by the level of the trend component of real GDP. The potential rate of growth of real GDP is represented by the stochastic drift element of t...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
1. Verfasser: Cuevas, A. Mario (VerfasserIn)
Format: Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: Washington, D.C The World Bank 2002
Schlagworte:
Business Cycles
Climate Change
Currencies and Exchange Rates
Debt Markets
Econometrics
Economic Fluctuations
Economic Performance
Economic Theory and Research
Emerging Markets
Energy
Energy Demand
Environment
Exogenous Variables
Exports
Finance and Financial Sector Development
Growth Potential
Growth Rate
Industry
Interest
Interest Rate
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
Markets and Market Access
Oil and Gas Industry
Private Sector Development
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Zusammenfassung:Real GDP and oil prices are decomposed into common stochastic trend and cycle processes using structural time series models. Potential real GDP is represented by the level of the trend component of real GDP. The potential rate of growth of real GDP is represented by the stochastic drift element of the trend component. Cuevas finds that there is a strong association at the trend and cycle frequencies between real GDP and the real price of oil. This association is also robust in the presence of key economic policy variables. From 1970–80, when the underlying annual rate of increase of the real price of oil was 12 percent, the underlying annual rate of increase of potential GDP in Venezuela was 2.6 percent. By contrast, from 1981–2000 when the underlying rate of increase of the real price of oil was –5 percent, the underlying growth rate of potential GDP fell 1.5 percent. However, the strength of association between the underlying growth of oil prices and real GDP has fallen considerably since the early 1980s, suggesting that oil cannot be relied on as an engine for future growth in Venezuela. This paper—a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevas@worldbank.org
Beschreibung:Weitere Ausgabe: Cuevas, A. Mario: Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela
Beschreibung:1 Online-Ressource (1 online resource (28 p.))
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