Demand for Imports in Venezuela: A Structural Time Series Approach
Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974–2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in Venezuela....
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
The World Bank
2002
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974–2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in Venezuela. The author also explicitly estimates common stochastic cycles, which he finds to have 5 and 17 year periods. In addition, he finds that a 1 percent real exchange rate appreciation leads to a 0.4 percent increase in imports. And in the long-run, 1 percent real GDP growth is associated with 1.7 percent real imports growth. The author also shows that the GDP elasticity of imports uniformly falls with cycle period, with the elasticity reaching 4.55 at the frequency associated with the 5–year cycle. A powerful imports responsiveness at the higher cycle frequency is associated with the recurrence of external imbalances in Venezuela. This paper—a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevas@worldbank.org |
| Beschreibung: | Weitere Ausgabe: Cuevas, A. Mario: Demand for Imports in Venezuela |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (20 Seiten) |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000 c 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV040617461 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 20250123 | ||
| 007 | cr|uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 121206s2002 xxu o|||| 00||| eng d | ||
| 035 | |a (ZDB-1-WBA)093214081 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)874229775 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)GBVNLM005450233 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e aacr | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 044 | |a xxu |c XD-US | ||
| 049 | |a DE-12 |a DE-1102 |a DE-1051 |a DE-521 |a DE-863 |a DE-862 |a DE-522 |a DE-858 |a DE-573 |a DE-860 |a DE-1046 |a DE-1047 |a DE-Aug4 |a DE-2070s |a DE-M347 |a DE-1049 |a DE-898 |a DE-128 |a DE-M352 |a DE-70 |a DE-92 |a DE-150 |a DE-155 |a DE-22 |a DE-91 |a DE-384 |a DE-473 |a DE-19 |a DE-739 |a DE-20 |a DE-703 |a DE-706 |a DE-355 |a DE-29 |a DE-859 |a DE-Re13 |a DE-523 | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Cuevas, A. Mario |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Demand for Imports in Venezuela |b A Structural Time Series Approach |c Cuevas, A. Mario |
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington, D.C |b The World Bank |c 2002 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (20 Seiten) | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Weitere Ausgabe: Cuevas, A. Mario: Demand for Imports in Venezuela | ||
| 520 | 1 | |a Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974–2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in Venezuela. The author also explicitly estimates common stochastic cycles, which he finds to have 5 and 17 year periods. In addition, he finds that a 1 percent real exchange rate appreciation leads to a 0.4 percent increase in imports. And in the long-run, 1 percent real GDP growth is associated with 1.7 percent real imports growth. The author also shows that the GDP elasticity of imports uniformly falls with cycle period, with the elasticity reaching 4.55 at the frequency associated with the 5–year cycle. A powerful imports responsiveness at the higher cycle frequency is associated with the recurrence of external imbalances in Venezuela. This paper—a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevas@worldbank.org | |
| 534 | |c 2002 | ||
| 653 | |a Climate Change | ||
| 653 | |a Currencies and Exchange Rates | ||
| 653 | |a Demand | ||
| 653 | |a Domestic Economic Activity | ||
| 653 | |a Economic Stabilization | ||
| 653 | |a Economic Theory and Research | ||
| 653 | |a Economy | ||
| 653 | |a Endogenous Variables | ||
| 653 | |a Environment | ||
| 653 | |a Exchange Rate Increases | ||
| 653 | |a Exchange Rate Level | ||
| 653 | |a Exogenous Variable | ||
| 653 | |a External Balance | ||
| 653 | |a Finance and Financial Sector Development | ||
| 653 | |a Growth Rate | ||
| 653 | |a Imbalances | ||
| 653 | |a Macroeconomic Management | ||
| 653 | |a Macroeconomics and Economic Growth | ||
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Reproduktion von |a Cuevas, A. Mario |t Demand for Imports in Venezuela |d 2002 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://elibrary.worldbank.org/content/workingpaper/10.1596/1813-9450-2825 |x Verlag |z URL des Erstveröffentlichers |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a ZDB-1-WBA | ||
| 943 | 1 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-025444960 | |
Datensatz im Suchindex
| DE-BY-FWS_katkey | 460170 |
|---|---|
| _version_ | 1822052258397814784 |
| adam_text | |
| any_adam_object | |
| author | Cuevas, A. Mario |
| author_facet | Cuevas, A. Mario |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Cuevas, A. Mario |
| author_variant | a m c am amc |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV040617461 |
| collection | ZDB-1-WBA |
| ctrlnum | (ZDB-1-WBA)093214081 (OCoLC)874229775 (DE-599)GBVNLM005450233 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Electronic eBook |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>00000nam a2200000 c 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV040617461</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20250123</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr|uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">121206s2002 xxu o|||| 00||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(ZDB-1-WBA)093214081</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)874229775</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)GBVNLM005450233</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">aacr</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="044" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">xxu</subfield><subfield code="c">XD-US</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-12</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1102</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1051</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-521</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-863</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-862</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-522</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-858</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-573</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-860</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1046</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1047</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-Aug4</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-2070s</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-M347</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1049</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-898</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-128</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-M352</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-70</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-92</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-150</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-155</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-22</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-91</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-384</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-473</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-19</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-739</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-20</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-703</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-706</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-355</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-29</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-859</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-Re13</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-523</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Cuevas, A. Mario</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Demand for Imports in Venezuela</subfield><subfield code="b">A Structural Time Series Approach</subfield><subfield code="c">Cuevas, A. Mario</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Washington, D.C</subfield><subfield code="b">The World Bank</subfield><subfield code="c">2002</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online-Ressource (20 Seiten)</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="500" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Weitere Ausgabe: Cuevas, A. Mario: Demand for Imports in Venezuela</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974–2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in Venezuela. The author also explicitly estimates common stochastic cycles, which he finds to have 5 and 17 year periods. In addition, he finds that a 1 percent real exchange rate appreciation leads to a 0.4 percent increase in imports. And in the long-run, 1 percent real GDP growth is associated with 1.7 percent real imports growth. The author also shows that the GDP elasticity of imports uniformly falls with cycle period, with the elasticity reaching 4.55 at the frequency associated with the 5–year cycle. A powerful imports responsiveness at the higher cycle frequency is associated with the recurrence of external imbalances in Venezuela. This paper—a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevas@worldbank.org</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="534" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="c">2002</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Climate Change</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Currencies and Exchange Rates</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Demand</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Domestic Economic Activity</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Economic Stabilization</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Economic Theory and Research</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Economy</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Endogenous Variables</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Environment</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Exchange Rate Increases</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Exchange Rate Level</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Exogenous Variable</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">External Balance</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Finance and Financial Sector Development</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Growth Rate</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Imbalances</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Macroeconomic Management</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Macroeconomics and Economic Growth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="776" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Reproduktion von</subfield><subfield code="a">Cuevas, A. Mario</subfield><subfield code="t">Demand for Imports in Venezuela</subfield><subfield code="d">2002</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.worldbank.org/content/workingpaper/10.1596/1813-9450-2825</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="z">URL des Erstveröffentlichers</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-1-WBA</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="943" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-025444960</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV040617461 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2025-01-23T15:00:41Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-025444960 |
| oclc_num | 874229775 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-1102 DE-1051 DE-521 DE-863 DE-BY-FWS DE-862 DE-BY-FWS DE-522 DE-858 DE-573 DE-860 DE-1046 DE-1047 DE-Aug4 DE-2070s DE-M347 DE-1049 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-128 DE-M352 DE-70 DE-92 DE-150 DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-22 DE-BY-UBG DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-384 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-739 DE-20 DE-703 DE-706 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-29 DE-859 DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR DE-523 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-1102 DE-1051 DE-521 DE-863 DE-BY-FWS DE-862 DE-BY-FWS DE-522 DE-858 DE-573 DE-860 DE-1046 DE-1047 DE-Aug4 DE-2070s DE-M347 DE-1049 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-128 DE-M352 DE-70 DE-92 DE-150 DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-22 DE-BY-UBG DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-384 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-739 DE-20 DE-703 DE-706 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-29 DE-859 DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR DE-523 |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (20 Seiten) |
| psigel | ZDB-1-WBA |
| publishDate | 2002 |
| publishDateSearch | 2002 |
| publishDateSort | 2002 |
| publisher | The World Bank |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Cuevas, A. Mario Verfasser aut Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach Cuevas, A. Mario Washington, D.C The World Bank 2002 1 Online-Ressource (20 Seiten) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Weitere Ausgabe: Cuevas, A. Mario: Demand for Imports in Venezuela Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974–2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in Venezuela. The author also explicitly estimates common stochastic cycles, which he finds to have 5 and 17 year periods. In addition, he finds that a 1 percent real exchange rate appreciation leads to a 0.4 percent increase in imports. And in the long-run, 1 percent real GDP growth is associated with 1.7 percent real imports growth. The author also shows that the GDP elasticity of imports uniformly falls with cycle period, with the elasticity reaching 4.55 at the frequency associated with the 5–year cycle. A powerful imports responsiveness at the higher cycle frequency is associated with the recurrence of external imbalances in Venezuela. This paper—a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevas@worldbank.org 2002 Climate Change Currencies and Exchange Rates Demand Domestic Economic Activity Economic Stabilization Economic Theory and Research Economy Endogenous Variables Environment Exchange Rate Increases Exchange Rate Level Exogenous Variable External Balance Finance and Financial Sector Development Growth Rate Imbalances Macroeconomic Management Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Reproduktion von Cuevas, A. Mario Demand for Imports in Venezuela 2002 http://elibrary.worldbank.org/content/workingpaper/10.1596/1813-9450-2825 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Cuevas, A. Mario Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach |
| title | Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach |
| title_auth | Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach |
| title_exact_search | Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach |
| title_full | Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach Cuevas, A. Mario |
| title_fullStr | Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach Cuevas, A. Mario |
| title_full_unstemmed | Demand for Imports in Venezuela A Structural Time Series Approach Cuevas, A. Mario |
| title_short | Demand for Imports in Venezuela |
| title_sort | demand for imports in venezuela a structural time series approach |
| title_sub | A Structural Time Series Approach |
| url | http://elibrary.worldbank.org/content/workingpaper/10.1596/1813-9450-2825 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cuevasamario demandforimportsinvenezuelaastructuraltimeseriesapproach |