Izbegličke migracije iz Bosne i Hercegovine u Beograd tokom poslednje decenije XX veka:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Beograd
Geografski Inst. Jovan Cvijić
2005
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Posebna izdanja / Geografski Institut Jovan Cvijić
66 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Abstract |
| Beschreibung: | PST: Refugee migrations from Bosnia and Herzegovina in Belgrade during the last decade of the 20th century. - In kyrill. Schr., serb. - Zsfassung in engl. Sprache |
| Beschreibung: | 129 S. graph. Darst., Kt. 24 cm |
| ISBN: | 8680029300 9788680029306 |
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| 264 | 1 | |a Beograd |b Geografski Inst. Jovan Cvijić |c 2005 | |
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| 490 | 1 | |a Posebna izdanja / Geografski Institut Jovan Cvijić |v 66 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | САДРЖАЈ
УВОД
.............................................................................................................7
-
Територијални
и
временски оквир истраживања
................................................8
ТЕОРЕГСКИ
АСПЕКТИ
ПРИНУДНИХ МИГРАЦИЈА
...........................................11
ПОЈАМ ИЗБЕГЛИЦА
И
PATOM
УГРОЖЕНИХ
ЛИЦА.........................................
19
МЕТОДОЛОШКИ
ПРОБЛЕМИ
ПРАЋЕЊА
ДИНАМИКЕ ИЗБЕГЛИЧКИХ
ПОПУЛАЦИЈА
...............................................................................................23
ОБИМ И
ТЕРИТОРИЈАЛНИ РАЗМЕШТАЈ
ИЗБЕГЛИЦА ИЗ БОСНЕ И
ХЕРЦЕГОВИНЕ У ЕВРОПИ И СВЕТУ
...............................................................25
ОБИМ И ДИНАМИКА ИЗБЕГЛИЧКИХ
МИГРАЦИЈА
ИЗ БОСНЕ И
ХЕРЦЕГОВИНЕ И
ТЕРИТОРИЈАЛНА ДИСТРИБУЦИЈА
МИГРАНАТА У
СРБИЈИ..27
-Територијална дисгрибуција
избеглица у Београду
...........................................32
-
Динамика
миграционен процеса
.......................................................................35
СТРУКТУРА ИЗБЕГЛИЧКЕ
ПОПУЛАЦИЈЕ
ИЗ БОСНЕ И ХЕРЦЕГОВИНЕ НА
ТЕРИТОРИЈИ
БЕОГРАДА
...............................................................................37
-Полна структура
...............................................................................................37
-Старосна структура
..........................................................................................41
(индикатори
старења
становништва,
велике старосне
трупе,
старосне пирамиде, специфичне
категорије
становништва)
...............................41
-Брачни
статус
...................................................................................................51
-Образовна структура
........................................................................................54
-Структура избеглица према
економској
активности
...........................................57
(радни контингент, активно становништво, претходно
занимање
избеглица)
.....57
-Национални састав
...........................................................................................64
НЕКИ
АСПЕКТИ
ПРОБЛЕМА ИЗБЕГЛИЦА У
ПРОЦЕСУ
ИНТЕГРАЦИЈЕ
.............67
-Карактеристике
смештаја
избеглица из БиХ у
Србији
и Београду
......................67
-Дисперзија,
капацитети
и друге карактеристике колективног
смештаја
избеглица у
Србији
............................................................................................71
-Демографске карактеристике
популације смештене
у
колективним центрима
... 73
-Проблеми
економске
адаптације
избеглица из БиХ у Београду
..........................75
МОГУЋА РЕШЕЊА
ИЗБЕГЛИЧКОГ
ПИТАЊА
..................................................79
МЕЂУЗАВИСНОСТ ТЕРИТОРИЈАЛНОГ РАЗМЕШТАЈА
ИЗБЕГЛИЦА ИЗ БиХ У
СРБИЈИ
И
ЊИХОВИХ
СТРУКТУРНИХ
КАРАКТЕРИСТИКА И
ОПРЕДЕЉЕЊА
ЗА
ОДРЕЂЕНО ТРАЈНО РЕШЕЊЕ
ИЗБЕГЛИЧКОГ СТАТУСА
............................83
ПОСЛЕДИЦЕ ИЗБЕГЛИЧКИХ
МИГРАЦИЈА
ИЗ БОСНЕ И ХЕРЦЕГОВИНЕ НА
ДЕМОГРАФСКИ
РАЗВИТАК
СРБИЈЕ
И БЕОГРАДА
...........................................91
ЗАКЉУЧНА РАЗМАТРАЊА
............................................................................97
ЛИТЕРАТУРА
..............................................................................................103
СТАТИСТИЧКЕ ПУБЛИКАЦИИ И
ИЗВОРИ
...................................................107
SUMMARY..................................................................................................
109
ПРИЛОЗИ
...................................................................................................121
SUMMARY
Territorial mobility of population gets wider dimensions followed by
development of technology and communications. Migration forms have changed
due to the increasing diversity of political and economic circumstances in
modern world, which give the impulse to migrations. Modern migration flows
are characterized by increase in three kinds of migrations. Those are migrations
of highly qualified personnel migrations of refugees and asylum seekers, and
illegal migrations. Besides increased intensity of economic migrations as the
result of population s desire for better life standard, 20th century has been
marked by exile phenomenon. Hundreds of thousands of people had been
suddenly and forcefully moved from their homes due to fear of torture and
death, based on racial or ethnic background. According to UN data,
approximately one forced migrant comes to every
120
migrants throughout the
world. Studying of forced migrations in second half of 20th century by foreign
authors, therefore, gets its full ascent. Numerous typologies of migrations that
include forced migrations emerged in that period, and UN Convention with
definition of a refugee has been passed. In domestic literature, problems of
forced migrations have not been sufficiently covered, both in geography and
other sciences as well. Papers on that subject mostly emerged only in the last few
years.
Today forced migrations are more and more determined by actions of
human factor. Refugees, displaced persons and asylym seeking persons emerge
as the result of forced migrations motivated by political reasons. Besides newly
formed states, the product of national war in the former Yugoslavia are also
numerous refugees, among which refugees from Bosnia-Herzegovina as well.
Predecessor to those migrations, as a hint of possible diversity culmination are
migrations of ethnic gathering type, which according to
Petrović
(1987)
represent
special type of inner-republic movements in the former Yugoslavia. During the
period after the Second World War, migration of the Serbian population to its
territorial center of concentration (the Republic of Serbia, especially that part of it
outside the autonomous provinces) was most pronounced from Bosnia-
Herzegovina.
From the demographic aspect, the difficulty of studying migration as a
basic demographic process arises from the fact that it involves two populations
-
the population of the place of origin of migrants and that of the place receiving
them. Problems of the forced migrations, and concrete refugee migrations caused
by actions of political factors includes, besides refugees and governments of the
places of origin and those of the places receiving them, various international and
humanitarian organizations.Therefore studying of forced migrations gets its
complexity together with emphasized need to interdisciplinary approach of the
studies.
109
This paper represents contribution to studying and understanding of
causes and mechanisms of forced migrations, especially those caused by actions
of political factors. Considering that forced migrations have significant part in
contemporary migration flows in the world, but also bearing in mind great
number of refugees with which Serbia and Montenegro has been faced after the
disintegration of the former Yugoslavia, as well as the need of solving numerous
problems refugees face with, the intention for this paper in not only to have
theoretic but also applicable importance. Getting to know the basic theories of
forced migrations made possible to explore the causes that effect genesis of
refugees, but also the basic characteristics refugees might have, according to the
forced migrations type. On the other hand, answers to questions related to
causes of refugee migrations from BiH, as well as consequences of these
migrations on demographic development of Serbia and Belgrade appears from
the very analysis of refugee population from Bosnia-Herzegovina in Belgrade.
By transforming data of the
2001
census of refugees in the Republic of
Serbia into data adequate for demographic studies, we performed a structural
and functional analysis focused at studying basic characteristics of refugee
migrations as demographic process, aimed at determination of certain
specificities in the structure of monitored population, which characterize refugee
populations and populations struck by war on the example of refugee
population from BiH in Belgrade, as well as clarifying the selectivity of refugees
from BiH in Serbia and Belgrade with respect to certain characteristics in
comparison with structure of the population in the place of origin and that of
displaced persons inside BiH (in
Republika
Srpska).
A further purpose of the
indicated analysis was to establish differences and similarities between the
refugee population from BiH in Belgrade and the total refugee population from
B&H on territory of the Republic of Serbia in regard to basic demographic and
socioeconomic characteristics. Drawing on the obtained data, we attempted to
prove the hypothesis as to positive selectivity of refugees from B&H in Serbia in
relation to the population of the place of origin and refugees in
Republika
Srpska,
as well as positive selectivity of refugees from B&H in Belgrade in
relation to the total refugee population from B&H in the Republic of Serbia.
Analysis of structural characteristics of the refugee population from B&H in
Serbia enables us to investigate the selectivity of refugee migrations with respect
to the more significant demographic and socioeconomic indices and makes it
possible to test the Lee hypothesis in the push/pull model, namely that those
migrants responding primarily to pull factors in the place of destination are
positively selected with respect to age, education, qualifications, or motivation,
whereas those responding primarily to push factors in the place of origin are
most often negatively selected, migration of the latter group being for the most
part non-voluntary (World Population Monitoring
1997,
International Migration
and Development pp.
141-161,1998).
The results of the work, by themselves, try
to give answers to some questions related to theoretic researches of forced
110
migrations
(first of all the question of selectivity of forced migrants), apart from
the fact that they give the insight into origin, scope, directions, territorial
distribution and structure of refugee population from BiH in Belgrade, for the
needs of practical activities in the direction of solving refugee problems.
Questions about refugee settlement, their employment and possible solving of
refugee issue, but also research of interdependence between structural
characteristics of refugees and their determination for certain permanent solution
have been worked out.
Most of the refugees and asylum seekers in Europe during the last ten
years are from the territory of former Yugoslavia. Bosnia&Herzegovina is today
one of the leading countries of refugee origin in the world. Although the majority
of refugees from BiH have migrated within the region, apart from large number
of refugees originated from BiH in Serbia and Montenegro, directions of refugee
migrations from BiH are also significantly aimed towards USA, but also the
countries of Northern Europe. According to
2001
data,
165.811
refugees from BiH
sought shelter in Serbia, out of which
52.140 (31,4%)
in Belgrade (in
2002.
it is
131.469,
and
40.414
refugees from BiH in Belgrade).
In
2002
refugees in Serbia, without Kosovo and
Metohija,
make
5,1%,
and in Belgrade
7,1%
of total population, out of which refugees from BiH take
part with
1,8%,
respectively
2,6%.
They are mostly concentrated on
Vojvodina
territory and in Belgrade. They have the biggest share in population in
municipalities
Šid
and
Indija
(more than
20%),
and the smallest in municipalities
Sjenica
and
Tutin
(up to
1%).
Refugees had little influence on the increase in
population in municipalities on Southeast of Central Serbia. Thus the percentage
share of refugees in total population for these municipalities goes up to
1%.
According to territorial distribution of refugees in Serbia, refugees from
B&H settled predominantly in Belgrade and
Vojvodina.
In municipalities of
Central Serbia without Belgrade, they represent the largest share in the total
number of refugees in municipalities on the border with
Republika Srpska
(Łożnica,
Mali Zvornik, Ljubovija,
Bajina
Basta). In
Vojvodina,
the municipality
of Kikinda stands out by virtue of having a large share of refugees from BiH in
the total number of refugees. Apart from geographical location, such a
distribution of refugees from BiH was also influenced by earlier migrations, a
fact confirmed by the examples of the Mali Zvornik and Kikinda municipalities,
where according to the
1991
census approximately
30%
of all newcomers were
individuals originating from BiH. As for Muslim refugees from BiH in Serbia,
they moved predominantly to municipalities in which the Muslim population
already constituted a significant percentage, for example
Sjenica
or
Tutin.
In Belgrade the greatest number of refugees from BiH live on territory of
central city municipalities, whereas
Zemun
and
Novi Beograd
are emphasized as
individual municipalities. Exactly in these municipalities the significant number
of population have come from BiH before
1991,
and that confirmed the
importance of migration networks also within refugee migrations. When looked
111
at the level of settlements, refugees from
ВІН
in Belgrade mostly live in urban
settlements and municipal centers, whereas their number in rural settlements of
suburban municipalities is insignificant. It is not surprising considering that
more than
80%
of this population originally comes from settlements of urban
type. Results of mobility analysis of refugees from
ВІН
in Belgrade before war
show that more than
50%
of this population doesn t have migration history and
that until the moment of refuge they didn t change the place of their residence.
Studying of refugees from
ВІН
in Belgrade confirmed that this
population is characterized by certain specificities, which are anyhow shown
within populations struck by war, such as low rate of masculinity and surplus of
women in the fertile life period. These particularities can also be seen at the age
pyramid as existing of sudden transitions as consequence of disproportion in
numerousness of certain generations as war consequence.
At the time of migration, refugees from
ВІН
mostly belonged to age
groups to
20
and between
35
and
40,
and today they are tenish years older. The
average age of studied population is
38,4
years and is higher than the average
age of refugees from BiH at the level of whole Serbia, but is lower than the
average age of total Belgrade population in
2002.
Central Belgrade municipalities
have the most expressed process of aging according to all indices of age when
refugees from BiH are concerned, at what
Vračar
municipality is emphasized. It
is also municipality which is characterized by progressed population aging
process, and which notes decrease in population number over the years.
In relation to total refugee population from BiH in Serbia, refugees from
BiH in Belgrade are married in lower percentage, while the higher percentage of
them are either divorced or single. The greatest number of married refugees from
BiH live in municipalities outside Belgrade settlement, where the greater number
of refugees have permanently solved the accommodation issue, while the
greatest number of the singles live in the central city municipalities.
Positive selection of refugees from BiH in Belgrade, according to
education and previous occupation, related to population of the place of origin as
well as total refugee population from BiH in Serbia, is in keeping with claims of
demand in Belgrade as managerial and the biggest administrative Serbian center.
In that way Belgrade got finished educated working labor, which prevalently
declared for integration as permanent solution.
Vračar, Savski
Venae and
Stari
Grad
municipalities have the most favorable educational structure of refugees
from BiH. The biggest number of refugees from BiH that were engaged in
agriculture before the war settled in the suburban municipalities, which gave
them possibility for further engagement within agriculture.Territorial
distribution of refugees within Belgrade according to previous occupation is also
confirmed by studying of professional population structure before migration.
Indices of population economic activity indicate to favorable relations
between total population, working able and contingent of economic active
population, when talked about refugees from BiH in Belgrade. Analysis of the
112
working-age contingent of the population in Belgrade from aspect of the need for
jobs indicates that working able population makes
72,5%
in total exiled
population from
ВІН.
More than
60%
of refugees from BiH in Serbia belong to
active population category, and similar picture is also in Belgrade. Also it needs
to be emphasized that in the structure of refugees from BiH in Serbia
64,7%
of
them doesn t perform their occupation, and percentage in Belgrade is only
50,8%.
When looked at age structure of refugees, it is noticeable that it is harder for
older refugees to find job, therefore structural unemployment is represented.
The ethnic push factor as a crucial element in the process of prompting
these migrations is confirmed by the selectivity of refugees in Serbia in regard to
nationality, that is national structure of refugees, which is significantly
homogenous in relation to national structure of BiH population before the war
and is made by Serbs in around
90%.
Also the biggest number of refugees from
BiH, both in Serbia and Belgrade, is originally from municipalities that are now
within the structure of Federation BiH.
Studies show that the most significant problems of refugees are certainly
issues of accomodation and job. Special attention to directions of activities for
solving problems in these areas is payed in the National Strategy for Solving the
Issues of Refugees, adopted by Republic of Serbia s Government in
2002.
Considering duration of exile process, the need for permanent solution of
housing space, naturally for those refugees who are determined for integration
imposes itself. Accomodation type for refugees from BiH analysis show that
there is significantly lower number of refugees in their own accomodation in
Belgrade related to refugees from BiH in Serbia generally. Every sixth person
eluded from BiH has permanently solved his housing issue, while in Belgrade it
is every eighth person. The biggest number of refugees from BiH live in Belgrade
in their own objects in municipalities which doesn t have areas within central
Belgrade settlement. It can be assumed that difference in real estate prices had
significant influence on this occurence, but also that refugees permanently settled
in certain number of week-end objects in these municipalities. Realization of
permanent accomodation for refugees accomodated in
colective
centers
represents special problem. When talking about refugees from BiH in Belgrade,
this number is not high and that is mainly working able population, which
would ease finding the right solution for their accomodation.
Economic adaptation and job issue are extremely important for refugees.
From the aspect of job type for older than
15, 38,6%
have permanent job, and that
represent solid success in conditions of high unemployment of local population
as well. One has to bear in mind that differences in school systems and needs of
new working labour markets impose additional problems to many refugees in
the sense of necessary retraining and alike.
In the view of desired permanent solutions for which the refugees
declared themselves in order to resolve their status in future, the greater number
of refugees from BiH in Belgrade opting for integration in local environment
113
related to
summ
of refugees from BiH in Serbia. However, in both cases it is over
50%
of population. Studying of interdependence between territorial distribution
of refugees from BiH in Serbia and their structural characteristics and
determination for certain permanent solution of refugee status gave the
conclusion that various factors have influence on decision about permanent
solution. The conducted analysis of structural characteristics of refugees from
BiH in Serbia opting for integration shows that this solution is favored for the
most part by younger and better educated refugees, married persons, and
individuals coming from municipalities where their ethnic group was in the
minority before the war or became the minority after it. In Belgrade refugees in
municipalities, which don t have their parts within cantral Belgrade settlement,
where they usually live with their families and in own accommodation mostly
opted for integration. Positive co-relation between length of refugee stay and
desire for integration is also expressed.
Apart from the fact that studying of refugees from BiH in Belgrade
shows characteristics of populations struck by war, in relation to refugees from
BiH in Serbia generally, certain specialties can be noticed, which represent
confirmation of theoretically based standard hypothesis about selectivity of
economic migrants, primarily by education and occupation (increased tendency
towards migrating of population with higher educational level and age
20-40).
Analysis of the data indicate that for the given indices, displaced persons
in the BiH entity of
Republika
Srpska
emanating from the same pre-war
population of BiH have significantly poorer characteristics with respect to
education in comparison with persons from BiH who sought refuge from the war
in Serbia. Refugees from BiH in Serbia show distinct positive selectivity
according to education in relation both to population of place of origin and in
comparison with displaced persons on
Republika Srpska
territory, which have
moved within BiH. In Belgrade, positive selectivity of refugees from BiH with
respect to education is even more pronounced, in keeping with requirements of
the largest commercial and administrative center of Serbia.
Refugees from BiH in Serbia are averagely younger than other refugees
in Serbia and the greatest number of them is in their working period of life.
Study of the age of refugees from BiH at the time of arrival in Serbia and
Montenegro on the example of Belgrade indicates that the average age of
refugees from BiH in Belgrade at the time of exile was
31.4
years. That leads to
conclusion that, apart from compulsion and speed which refugee migrations as
phenomenon certainly bear, younger refugees and ones with better educational
characteristics decided to move in the direction of more distant territories which
were giving higher possibilities of better economic conditions for living, since
they were out of war activities. This example challenges the point that most
oftenly refugees are not positively chosen, as being the case with other migrants,
because countries accept them on humanitarian basis and not based on their
qualifications. In the context of the above mentioned and in accordance with
114
realizations related to forced migrations theory, the question comes whether the
refugees from BiH are acute or anticipatory migrants, regardless of migration s
compulsion. That would also explain significantly higher number of refugees
from BiH in Belgrade with higher/high education, but also experts and
administrators according to previous occupation, in relation to population of the
place of origin as well as refugees from BiH in Serbia as whole.
Certain number of refugees from BiH in Belgrade which are
characterized by expressive positive selectivity towards certain traits, can be
possibly noted to movings within Serbia, which show that in the period
1996-
2001
a little less than
3%
of total number of refugees from BiH came to Belgrade,
while at the same time number of refugees from BiH in Central Serbia without
Belgrade decreased by almost
4%.
Results of the study indicate that the directions of recent refugee
migrations from BiH to Serbia have continued the historic trend of previous
migrations on the territory of former Yugoslavia namely the trend of so-called
ethnic gathering. This is corroborated by the significantly more homogeneous
national structure of refugees from BiH in Serbia in relation to the national
structure of BiH before the war, as well as by the fact that most of the refugees
come from municipalities now located within the Federation of BiH, which
suggests that these migrations were prompted by action of the ethnic push
factor. Refugees from BiH, relying on family and friends in Serbia confirm the
importance of migration-social networks in the case of forced migrations as well,
and the fact that population rarely migrate in the areas where they don t know
anybody.
So, it can be said that studying of refugees from BiH in Serbia shows
that, irrespective of the forced nature of these migrations and the action of social
networks, better educated and younger refugees chose resettlement on the
territory of Serbia and Montenegro instead of resettlement in BiH s
Republika
Srpska.
With the prolongation of exile, the action of social networks has
weakened, while that of economic factors has become more significant, as can be
seen from the territorial distribution of refugees during the period of
1996-2001.
The number of refugees living with family and friends is in decline, and their
decision to return is being increasingly influenced by economic factors. So
refugees more and more behave similar to economic migrants, concentrating in
the areas of higher development which give them better opportunities for work
according with their structural characteristics, which can be seen on the example
of refugees from BiH in Belgrade. Also, the influence of economic factors on
refugees decision to stay or return is getting bigger.
According to first results of
2002
census in Central Serbia and
Vojvodina,
in Belgrade live
1.635.358
or
20,7%
of total population on the territory on which
the census was conducted. At the same time,
111.300
or
29,4%
of total refugee
population on this territory found refuge in Belgrade.
115
In larger or smaller scope, migrational component of population s
movements had decisive influence on population s dynamics of Central Serbia
and
Vojvodina
during the last inter-census period. Large population influx into
Serbia by refugee migrations from former Yugoslav republics undoubtedly
contibuted to increase of total number of Serbian population. So, even with
negative population growth
Vojvodina
and Belgrade note increase in number of
population in period
1996-2002,
while Central Serbia without Belgrade continues
decreasing trend of population number from period
1981-1991.
If neglected
influence of refugees, Central Serbia and
Vojvodina
would have negative
migrational balance in period
1991-2002
of
161.359.
When observed at municipal
level,
52
municipalities note increase in population number in the last inter-
census period (Lapovo and
Niska Banja
municipalities, formed after
1991.,
were
looked as integral parts of
Batočina
and
Niš
municipalities, for the comparison of
data). Out of which
22
municipalities in
Vojvodina,
20
in Central Serbia withour
Belgrade and
10
in Belgrade. Analysis results at municipal level show that only
15
municipalities of Central Serbia and
Vojvodina
would continue to have
increase in population number. Those are: Bujanovac,
Vranje, Vrnjačka Banja,
City of
Niš,
Novi Pazar, Preševo and
Tutin in
Central
Serbia without Belgrade,
Beočin, Žabalj, Novi Sad, Stara Pazova and Temerin
in
Vojvodina and Barajevo,
Grocka and Čukarica
municipalities in Belgrade.
Bujanovac, Vranje, Novi Pazar,
Preševo and
Tutin
have
negative migrational
balance and at the same
time
positive population growth in the period
1991-2002,
therefore natural component
had decisive influence on increase of population number in these municipalities.
Barajevo,
Vrnjačka Banja, Žabalj,
Stara Pazova and Temerin
municipalities,
which have
negative
population growth in the same period, have the increase in
population number solely thanks to migrations. Remaining
4
out of above-
mentioned
11
municipalities:
Niš
and
Novi Sad
as strong regional centers, and
Belgrade municipalities Grocka and
Čukarica,
as well as
BeoČin
municipality,
apart from positive population growth owe the increase of population number
mostly to mechanical influx of population.
Influence of refugees on demographic development of certain regions
and municipalities would be adequate to their territorial distribution. Refugees
from BiH would accomplish the greatest influence on demographic development
of
Vojvodina
and Belgrade, and in Central Serbia without Belgrade mostly on
municipalities in border parts, near
Drina
river. In Belgrade that is territory of
central city municipalities, whereas
Zemun
and
Novi Beograd
stand out as
separate municipalities. Mali Zvornik, Loznica and Temerin, which note increase
in population number within the last inter-census period with more than
6%
of
refugee population in overall, are also municipalities in which there are more
than half of refugees originated from BiH, so the contribution of refugee
migrations from BiH to increase of population number of these municipalities in
the period
1991-2002
is indisputable. Bajina
Bašta,
Krupanj, Loznica, Ljubovija,
Mali Zvornik,
Priboj, Prijepolje, Sjenica,
and
Uzice
municipalities stand out with
116
more than
60%
of exiled population from BiH.
Vladičin Han,
Doljevac,
Prelevo
and
Trgovište
are municipalities with the smallest portion of refugees from BiH
in the total number of refugees. In Belgrade, central city municipality
Savski
Venae has the biggest percentage of refugees from BiH in total, and Sopot has the
smallest one.
Negative population growth in Belgrade since
1992
contributes to
overcoming of mechanical population growth in the increase of Belgrade
population number, even with the fact that portion of mechanical component in
population growth of Belgrade gradually weakens since 1970-ties as consequence
of demographic discharge of traditional emigrant areas. Division of Belgrade s
administrative area onto three smaller territorial units, during analysis, made
possible to see more clearly
diferences
in arrangement and demographic
characteristics of refugees from BiH in Belgrade. Considering the territorial
arrangement of refugees from BiH in Belgrade and their concentration in
municipalities of central urban aglomeration, it is obvious that refugee
migrations from BiH will not have any significant influence on changes in
population numbers of smaller settlements in suburban Belgrade municipalities,
and that trend of population number decreasing in these settlements will
continue. Bearing in mind the fact about prevalent influence of mechanical
increase on total increase of Belgrade population, the increase of population
number caused by refugee migrations raises also questions about housing space,
jobs, education and increase of population needs scope in general. In that sense
it is nocessary to act in direction of most optimal solutions both for refugees and
local population, but also undisturbed action of city functions.
According to results of Central Serbia and
Vojvodina
population
projections with and without the assumption about integration of refugees, it is
assumed that positive effects of basically bigger number of population
accomplished by moving of refugees would be lost by the year
2050
(Matković,
1999).
This is confirmed by the fact that refugee population is characterized by
distinctions of population in the final phase of demographic transition, which
can be also seen at graphs of age
pyramides, on
example of refugees from BiH in
Belgrade, which give the picture of regressive type of population structure, with
small children s base
0-4
years as indicative index of birthrate. If the influence of
refugee migrations from BiH on demographic development of Serbia, in the view
of total number of population, somewhat gets lost on the way of new census
methodology, which doesn t include persons on temporary work abroad longer
than one year in permanent population, it is indisputable that the effects of
refugee migrations from BiH on demographic development of Serbia and
Belgrade, besides quantity also reflect in the quality sense, that is by acting on
changes in the structure of population (both directly and indirectly).
Besides direct effects such as the influence on population s dynamics,
refugees from BiH as demographic potential also affect
117
•
Age-sex structure (by rejuvenation of total population and
increase of share of women in total population)
Considering that refugees have lower average age related to Central
Serbia and
Vojvodina
population and specially when talking about refugees
from BiH which are generally younger than refugees from Croatia, it will affect
rejuvenation of total population. Average age for refugees from BiH at Serbian
level is
35,9
years. Refugees from BiH in Belgrade are older than the average for
Serbia
(38,4),
but still younger related to total Belgrade population in
2002
(average age
40,4).
It can be concluded that refugees from BiH also affect
rejuvenation of Belgrade population.
Although it is known that movements of whole families are
characteristic for refugee migrations, during which there are mostly women and
children in the first waves, apart from economic migrations with mostly migrant
of
20-40
years of age, population of refugees from BiH in Belgrade is
characterized just by the greatest number of this age group in total. During the
exile these persons were averagely
10
years younger. At the same time,
population in Serbia in
2002,
as well as total population of refugees from BiH in
Serbia is distinguished by the greatest percentage of population age
40-59.
Refugee migrations from BiH also affect the increase of women s portion
in the total population number. Misbalance in sex structure of refugees from BiH
in Serbia, for which masculinity rate is
841,9
reflects on total Serbian population
(masculinity rate
946,5),
whereas in
1991
it was
984,5.
Masculinity rate for
Belgrade in
1991
was
937,7,
whereas according to
2002
data it decreased to
902,9.
In
2001
number of men on
1000
women in population of refugees from BiH in
Belgrade is
810,1.
•
Educational structure (by improvement of population s
educational structure)
Results of educational structure s analysis point out that refugees from
BiH in Serbia, and this is even more evident at Belgrade level, show clear positive
selectivity towards education compared to educational level of BiH s pre-war
population. Refugees from BiH in Belgrade have more favorable educational
structure related to total population of refugees from BiH in Serbia, which would
have positive effect to educational structure of total population of Belgrade city.
It is also positive that the greatest number of refugees from BiH in Belgrade is
within their working life period.
•
And national structure (by expansion of national
homogeneousity
)
of Serbia and Belgrade s population.
Substantial homogenous national structure of refugees, thus refugees
from BiH as well, would contribute to increasing of Serbs participation in
population s national structure, both in Serbia and Belgrade.
Considering the studied inter-dependence between territorial
distribution of refugees from BiH in Serbia and their structural characteristics
and determination to certain permanent solution of refugee status, it can be
118
concluded that structures of population which will integrate, would favorably
act on demographic development of both Serbia in general and Belgrade as well.
Bearing in mind primarily age of refugees determined to integration, process of
integration is probably going to be relatively fast for them. Mostly from urban
areas and with high percentage of highly educated persons and experts
according to previous occupation, it can be considered that these refugees would
have positive influence on future economic development of Serbia. Structure of
unemployed refugees corresponds to structure of unemployed persons in Serbia.
However, it can not be said that it has influence on social stability since both
refugees and local population share the same problems in the transition proccess
the country is going through.
On the other hand the drain of highly qualified persons from BiH to the
Republic of Serbia caused by the war will have significant negative consequences
for the economy and social life of BiH. This is especially important in the years
immediately following the war, when educated persons are the main carriers of
the revitalization of economic and social life. The structure of refugees from BiH
in Serbia opting for repatriation is not encouraging for the economic recovery of
BiH, since they are predominantly older persons no longer of working age. The
economic situation in BiH is today a significant obstacle to sustainable return,
and refugees cite living conditions in BiH as one of the main obstacles to
repatriation. Even refugees who manage to repossess their property find it
difficult to choose repatriation when they know they are going to be unable to
earn a living in their former place of residence. That is also one of the reasons
why repatriation is chosen predominantly by old-age pensioners, who have an
assured source of income. Programs of the international community and local
governments need to act more energetically in the direction of establishing
economically sustainable return.
Starting from the fact that more than half of exiled population on
Republic of Serbia s territory, according to
2001
census, is determined for local
integration as permanent solution of refugee status, and that solving of refugee
problem, apart from low birthrate, represents significant demographic problem
our country is facing today, it is undeniable that studying of demographic
characteristics of the exiled population in the context of policy creation and
program of permanent solution of refugee life problems, will gain more and
more on its importance. All the better since the lack of reliable informations is
serious obstacle in creating and applying development programs related to
refugees.
At the end, it should be emphasized that it is necessary to enable
refugees to realize their right to choice regarding permanent solution, whether it
is staying in Serbia or return to BiH. At the same time, economic development is
pre-condition both for return refugees to BiH and integration as well. In
accordance with that, economic integration represents the biggest problem to
refugees from BiH in Serbia and Belgrade within the integration process,
119
considering that process of cultural integration is quite eased by non-existence of
language barrier, but also by religious, national and cultural equalities. In the
integration process of refugees from BiH in Serbia and Belgrade, with the
emphasis to necessity of transferring from humanitarian to development
programs and which imposes itself by continuity of exile process, apart from
series of elements, specific needs connected to certain population structures must
be respected. In that sense, the wishes for this study are for it to be one further
step towards recognizing and solving problems of refugees and phenomenon of
the exile in general.
120
|
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| author | Lukić, Vesna |
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| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)816245590 (DE-599)GBV62397911X |
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| geographic | Belgrad (DE-588)4005411-1 gnd |
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| id | DE-604.BV040484560 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T00:24:44Z |
| institution | BVB |
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| physical | 129 S. graph. Darst., Kt. 24 cm |
| publishDate | 2005 |
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| publisher | Geografski Inst. Jovan Cvijić |
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| series2 | Posebna izdanja / Geografski Institut Jovan Cvijić |
| spelling | Lukić, Vesna Verfasser aut Izbegličke migracije iz Bosne i Hercegovine u Beograd tokom poslednje decenije XX veka Vesna Lukić Beograd Geografski Inst. Jovan Cvijić 2005 129 S. graph. Darst., Kt. 24 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Posebna izdanja / Geografski Institut Jovan Cvijić 66 PST: Refugee migrations from Bosnia and Herzegovina in Belgrade during the last decade of the 20th century. - In kyrill. Schr., serb. - Zsfassung in engl. Sprache Bosnischer Flüchtling (DE-588)4337839-0 gnd rswk-swf Sozialgeografie (DE-588)4055768-6 gnd rswk-swf Belgrad (DE-588)4005411-1 gnd rswk-swf Belgrad (DE-588)4005411-1 g Bosnischer Flüchtling (DE-588)4337839-0 s Sozialgeografie (DE-588)4055768-6 s DE-604 Geografski Institut Jovan Cvijić Posebna izdanja 66 (DE-604)BV008905274 66 Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen 2 application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025331711&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen 2 application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025331711&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Abstract |
| spellingShingle | Lukić, Vesna Izbegličke migracije iz Bosne i Hercegovine u Beograd tokom poslednje decenije XX veka Bosnischer Flüchtling (DE-588)4337839-0 gnd Sozialgeografie (DE-588)4055768-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4337839-0 (DE-588)4055768-6 (DE-588)4005411-1 |
| title | Izbegličke migracije iz Bosne i Hercegovine u Beograd tokom poslednje decenije XX veka |
| title_auth | Izbegličke migracije iz Bosne i Hercegovine u Beograd tokom poslednje decenije XX veka |
| title_exact_search | Izbegličke migracije iz Bosne i Hercegovine u Beograd tokom poslednje decenije XX veka |
| title_full | Izbegličke migracije iz Bosne i Hercegovine u Beograd tokom poslednje decenije XX veka Vesna Lukić |
| title_fullStr | Izbegličke migracije iz Bosne i Hercegovine u Beograd tokom poslednje decenije XX veka Vesna Lukić |
| title_full_unstemmed | Izbegličke migracije iz Bosne i Hercegovine u Beograd tokom poslednje decenije XX veka Vesna Lukić |
| title_short | Izbegličke migracije iz Bosne i Hercegovine u Beograd tokom poslednje decenije XX veka |
| title_sort | izbeglicke migracije iz bosne i hercegovine u beograd tokom poslednje decenije xx veka |
| topic | Bosnischer Flüchtling (DE-588)4337839-0 gnd Sozialgeografie (DE-588)4055768-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bosnischer Flüchtling Sozialgeografie Belgrad |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025331711&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025331711&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV008905274 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lukicvesna izbeglickemigracijeizbosneihercegovineubeogradtokomposlednjedecenijexxveka |