Sunčeva aktivnost i šumski požari:
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Beograd
Geografski Inst. Jovan Cvijić
2008
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Posebna izdanja / Geografski Institut Jovan Cvijić
71 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Rezension |
| Beschreibung: | PST: Solar activity and forest fires. - In kyrill. Schr., serb. - Zsfassung in engl. Sprache |
| Beschreibung: | 162 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. 23 cm |
| ISBN: | 9788680029405 |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Sunčeva aktivnost i šumski požari |c Milan Radovanović ; Joao Fernando Pereira Gomes |
| 264 | 1 | |a Beograd |b Geografski Inst. Jovan Cvijić |c 2008 | |
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| 490 | 1 | |a Posebna izdanja / Geografski Institut Jovan Cvijić |v 71 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804149545515352064 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | САДРЖАЈ
Предговор
..................................................................................................
З
Увод
............................................................................................................7
Географска
заступљеност
шумских
пожара
.........................................11
Тропске
области
..................................................................................13
Шумски пожари у умереним ширинама
...........................................22
Субполарне
области
...........................................................................27
Зашто
настају
шумски пожари
..............................................................37
Глобалне климатске
промене и
шумски пожари
.................................47
Шта
недостаје
у
објашњењу
везе Сунце-атмосфера?
.........................67
Хипотеза
о процесима на Сунцу као узрочнику великих шумских
пожара
......................................................................................................75
Анализа
случаја
-
пожари у Португалу
24. 08. 2005.
године
.............93
Анализа
случаја
-
пожари у
средњој
и
јужној Европи
24. - 26 03.
2003.
године...........................................................................................
109
Могућност прогностичког моделовања
..............................................121
Закључак
................................................................................................131
Референце
..............................................................................................137
Summary.................................................................................................
151
Прилози
..................................................................................................155
pi -
SUMMARY
We may conclude that the number of forest fires as well as surfaces they occupy
has increased from year to year. Difficult which has existed during the research
relates to modest database. Unsuccessful was the attempt to unite necessary
satellite data with data on fires for period
1991-2001.
That is why it was decided
to add
FAO
UN results to establish whether there is a signal of the eventual
causality. Observation Wang
(2005)
gave seems interesting: Following E.
N.
Parker, when the mathematics becomes too much complicated in the study, is
seems the time to stop to find new physics, while when the observations get into
too many details, it seems the time to stop to think what physics we are working
on .
Proceeding from the official data, the cause for about
43%
of the forest fires
(table
8)
was not established. The monograph points out the hypothetic
possibility that certain processes on the Sun could be the explanation. As
mentioned in the Introduction, certain segments of basic idea need detailed
research in order to confirm or refute the heliocentric approach. On basis of the
recent researches, it is certain that destructive power of fires, not only rages
vegetation throughout the world from year to year, but also endangers the
environment. With all accomplishments of modern age, as well as with
undertaken measures (on general level), we can conclude the society was caught
with fire phenomenon. In such circumstances guilt imputes to intentional or
unintentional burning by man or by electric discharges from the atmosphere. We
have seen that in some parts of the USA lightning practically represents minor
cause of the initial phase. According to previous estimation, even over
50%
of
responsibility was attributed to lightning. On the other side, we have clearly
seen that modern science is not able to explain an extremely large quantity of
electric power in clouds. Rain that should follow thunder is also in a domain of
sporadic interests. Thus, we have come to global warming, that is, climatic
disturbances for which man bears most responsibility. On basis of such
arguments, some officials claim men guilty for even over
95%
of the cases.
This trend in science is dominating so much that at the beginning of the
research there was a worry into the coherence of developing at any other
different approach. However, there are more and more scientists stating their
own arguments for opposite view from different aspects. In accordance to
estimation that the hypothesis may be contested, especially on delicate places
which objectively do exist, the monograph gives a great number of quotations
just because of possible reproaching for selective choice and arbitrary
interpretation of some scientific papers. In any case, there is a strong belief the
149
successful measures of prevention may only realize on bases of better notion of
what is happening on the Sun, of processes happening in the magnetosphere and
atmosphere, as well as manifestations that charged particles make in the contact
with biomass. Generally, the situation we are in now characterizes the
impossibility of making both successful prognostic models and prevention:
purely analytical system (Hardy, Hardy,
2007).
According to hypothesis Stevancevic developed, depending on solar wind
parameters, the differences concerning the regional development of the weather
conditions seem to give a universal approach in the only possible way for now.
One hypothesis for these clustered dates (Agee
1993)
is that these were times of
sunspot minima associated with periods of lower than normal solar activity
(Stuiver
and Quay
1980).
These global cooling periods may be linked to changes
in the factors associated with large fire events in more recent times in the wetter
portions of the Pacific Northwest: drought, lightning activity, the occurrence of
east winds, or less summer onshore flow of moist air. We do not understand
these linkages well, or linkages between fires and other episodic but potentially
catastrophic disturbances (Agee,
Krusemark, 2001).
Moore
et al,
(2002)
thought similarly: Many aspects of fires in the landscape remain obscure and
more reliable data on fire causes, impacts and research on fire behavior is
required to effectively understand and then address the fire issue If we only rely
the data from the table
11,
we could say the connection is direct and the
observed fires are in temporal accordance with mentioned process on the Sun.
Obviously we need to understand first what happens in the Sun s convection
zone when perturbations in the torque cycle occur. ...I think that these problems
can only be solved by a joint interdisciplinary effort of open-minded scientists
(Landschieidt,
2000
b).
Viewing from presented perspective, Lynch
et al,
(2004)
for example,
understood the domain of the key question, but obviously without clear vision
how further to develop the measures of prevention: Our results therefore
support other recent studies demonstrating that warmer/drier climatic conditions
do not necessarily induce greater fire importance. ...These results contradict the
current understanding of modern fire-climate relationships. It is also inconsistent
with model predictions that a drier and wanner climate, as a result of glasshouse
warming, will lead to increased fire activity in boreal systems Gorte,
(2006)
is
categorical: Research information on causative factors and on the complex
circumstances surrounding wildfire is limited. The value of wildfires as case
studies for building predictive models is confined, because the a priori situation
(e.g., fuel loads and distribution) and burning conditions (e.g., wind and moisture
levels, patterns, and variations) are often unknown .
150
On basis of the researches showed in this study, we may conclude the following:
-in all cases the data were gathered for, up to several days earlier the coronary
holes and energetic regions in geoeffective position on the Sun had preceded
forest fires in Europe. In every concrete situation, the emission of strong
electromagnetic and thermal corpuscular energy from these sources had
preceded fires;
-basic ways of solar wind penetration into the magnetosphere are a)
reconnection
(in the area of geomagnetic poles) and b) direct solar wind
penetration under the dominant effect of the kinetic energy (near
geomagnetic anomalies);
-solar wind directed towards the Earth gets weaker with deeper and
deeper penetration towards the topographic surface. The modifications
happening above the Atlantic anomaly and over magnetosphere tropics
also represent the border area modern science has come to.
-air masses seized by power stream of the solar wind particles, are
subject to the magnetic field laws and their moving is on the account of
particles energy of the power stream;
-geomagnetic coordinates can represent the base for mathematical
equation usage, which describe the trajectories of air mass movements;
-direction of air mass movements is determined by the polarization of
the solar wind charged particles. In the northern hemisphere, the
movement of winds made on the account of the proton solar wind
energetic particles has the left direction. Wind speed increases with the
height increase and it is directly proportional to the kinetic energy of the
solar wind particles increase;
-cloudiness represents one of the most important factors, determining
whether charged particles will be deposited to the topographic surface;
-on basis of the preliminary results, there are indications that the cosmic
radiation (especially in period of reduced solar activity) may also cause
fire phenomenon. As already said, the cosmic radiation in certain
situations may be characterized by far higher temperatures, speeds,
particle density, that is, by far stronger electromagnetic waves than ever
measured for the solar wind. However, the physical mechanism of solar
activity effects on weather phenomena remains unclear. It is suggested
that a significant part in the transfer of the solar variability to the lower
atmosphere may be played by charged particles of solar and galactic
origin, mainly protons, with energies from
-100
MeV to several GeV
(Veretenenko, Thejll,
2004).
-research at what conditions the charged particle dispersion on
vegetation may cause the initial phase of burning require experimental
151
testing.
Due to impossibility of precise prognosticating at which
locations it may concretely happen, necessary simulation of the similar
conditions in laboratory is considered as the first step.
It is well known that minimum of
300 °С
is necessary for the mentioned initial
phase. It is not necessary to point that so high air temperature has never been
measured on the Earth by standard meteorological measures, even when we talk
about soil temperature.
Brief notes on the recent experiences of meteorologists and climatologists are
certainly related to the ingratitude of the long-term forecasting. What could be
concluded, when it is about the processes on the Sun, is that in the following
several years the Sun should come into relatively calmer phase, so we should
expect the reduction in the number of fires. It certainly does not mean that we
won t have them (it is first of all meant on those fires with unknown cause).
However, for now we cannot conclude with certainty how it will effect the
cosmic radiation and what, in fact, it will bring us in future. Magnetic
reconnection,
turbulence and shocks are three fundamental ingredients of the
plasma Universe. The detailed understanding of these key processes and their
associated multi-scale physics is a challenge for the future of space physics. One
of the lessons learned from Cluster is the need for new space missions equipped
with instruments of higher sensitivity and better time resolution together with a
larger number of satellites
(http://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEMDI3T4LZE_index_0.html).
152
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| spelling | Radovanović, Milan Verfasser aut Sunčeva aktivnost i šumski požari Milan Radovanović ; Joao Fernando Pereira Gomes Beograd Geografski Inst. Jovan Cvijić 2008 162 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. 23 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Posebna izdanja / Geografski Institut Jovan Cvijić 71 PST: Solar activity and forest fires. - In kyrill. Schr., serb. - Zsfassung in engl. Sprache Waldbrand (DE-588)4064363-3 gnd rswk-swf Sonnenaktivität (DE-588)4181821-0 gnd rswk-swf Sonnenaktivität (DE-588)4181821-0 s Waldbrand (DE-588)4064363-3 s DE-604 Gomes, Joao Fernando Pereira Verfasser aut Geografski Institut Jovan Cvijić Posebna izdanja 71 (DE-604)BV008905274 71 Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen 2 application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025331692&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen 2 application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025331692&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Rezension |
| spellingShingle | Radovanović, Milan Gomes, Joao Fernando Pereira Sunčeva aktivnost i šumski požari Waldbrand (DE-588)4064363-3 gnd Sonnenaktivität (DE-588)4181821-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4064363-3 (DE-588)4181821-0 |
| title | Sunčeva aktivnost i šumski požari |
| title_auth | Sunčeva aktivnost i šumski požari |
| title_exact_search | Sunčeva aktivnost i šumski požari |
| title_full | Sunčeva aktivnost i šumski požari Milan Radovanović ; Joao Fernando Pereira Gomes |
| title_fullStr | Sunčeva aktivnost i šumski požari Milan Radovanović ; Joao Fernando Pereira Gomes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sunčeva aktivnost i šumski požari Milan Radovanović ; Joao Fernando Pereira Gomes |
| title_short | Sunčeva aktivnost i šumski požari |
| title_sort | sunceva aktivnost i sumski pozari |
| topic | Waldbrand (DE-588)4064363-3 gnd Sonnenaktivität (DE-588)4181821-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Waldbrand Sonnenaktivität |
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