Verfügbarkeit: Technical analysis

Technical analysis: the complete resource for financial market technicians

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1. Verfasser:	Kirkpatrick, Charles D. (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Buch
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Upper Saddle River, NJ Pearson 2011
Ausgabe:	2. ed.
Schlagworte:	Technical analysis (Investment analysis) Investment analysis Markttechnische Analyse Anlagepolitik Börsenspekulation Lehrbuch
Online-Zugang:	Inhaltsverzeichnis
Beschreibung:	Includes bibliographical references (p. 611-636) and index
Beschreibung:	XXVI, 671 S. graph. Darst.
ISBN:	9780137059447

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Datensatz im Suchindex

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adam_text	Contents Acknowledgments ......................................xxiii About the Authors ......................................xxv Part I: Introduction 1 Introduction to Technical Analysis ...............3 2 The Basic Principle of Technical Analysis — The Trend ................................................9 How Does the Technical Analyst Make Money? ................10 What Is a Trend? ...........................................11 How Are Trends Identified? ..................................12 Trends Develop from Supply and Demand .....................14 What Trends Are There? ....................................15 What Other Assumptions Do Technical Analysts Make? ........17 Conclusion .................................................19 Review Questions ...........................................20 ... Contents 3 History of Technical Analysis ......................................23 Early Financial Markets and Exchanges ......................23 Modern Technical Analysis ..................................26 Current Advances in Technical Analysis .......................30 4 The Technical Analysis Controversy ..........................33 Do Markets Follow a Random Walk? .........................35 Fat Tails ................................................................................................36 Drawdowns ...........................................................................................37 Proportions of Scale .............................................................................39 Can Past Patterns Be Used to Predict the Future? ..............40 What About Market Efficiency? ..............................41 New Information ...................................................................................42 Are Investors Rational? ........................................................................46 Will Arbitrage Keep Prices in Equilibrium? .........................................47 Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis ....................49 Pragmatic Criticisms of Technical Analysis ....................50 What Is the Empirical Support for Technical Analysis? .........52 Conclusion .................................................52 Review Questions ...........................................53 Part II: Markets and Market Indicators 5 An Overview of Markets ........................57 In What Types of Markets Can Technical Analysis Be Used? .... 58 Types of Contracts ..........................................59 Cash Market ............................................................. ¿q Derivative Markets ............................................ <52 Swaps and Forwards ............................................. .........66 Contents ¡χ How Does a Market Work? ..................................66 Who Are the Market Players? ................................68 How Is the Market Measured? ...............................69 Price-Weighted Average .......................................................................70 Market Capitalization Weighted Average .............................................71 Equally Weighted (or Geometric) Average ...........................................72 Conclusion .................................................73 Review Questions ...........................................73 6 Dow Theory ........................................................................75 Dow Theory Theorems ......................................78 The Primary Trend ................................................................................80 The Secondary Trend ............................................................................81 The Minor Trend ...................................................................................81 Concept of Confirmation ......................................................................82 Importance of Volume ...........................................................................83 Criticisms of the Dow Theory ................................85 Conclusion .................................................86 Review Questions ...........................................86 / örLJN 1 UVIL/JN 1 ••••«•»»»•••••••»♦••••••••••••••••••••♦•••••••••••••••»•••••••••••••••••••••Oľ What Is Sentiment? .........................................90 Market Players and Sentiment ...............................91 How Does Human Bias Affect Decision Making? ...............92 Crowd Behavior and the Concept of Contrary Opinion .........95 How Is Sentiment of Uninformed Players Measured? ...........96 Sentiment Indicators Based on Options and Volatility .........................97 Polls ....................................................................................................102 Other Measures of Contrary Opinion ................................................707 Unquantifiable Contrary Indicators ..................................................116 Historical Indicators .........................................................................117 Contents How Is the Sentiment of Informed Players Measured? .........118 Insiders ............................................................................................... H Sentiment in Other Markets ................................124 Treasury Bond Futures Put/Call Ratio ...............................................124 Treasury Bond COT Data ..................................................................125 Treasury Bond Primary Dealer Positions ..........................................125 Т -Bill Rate Expectations by Money Market Fund Managers .............126 Hulbert Gold Sentiment Index ..............................128 Conclusion ................................................128 Review Questions ..........................................129 8 Measuring Market Strength .......................................131 Market Breadth ...........................................133 The Breadth Line or Advance-Decline Line .......................................134 Double Negative Divergence ..............................................................136 Traditional Advance-Decline Methods That No Longer Are Profitable ......................................................................................138 Advance-Decline Line to Its 32-Week Simple Moving Average .......... 1 39 Breadth Differences ............................................................................140 Breadth Ratios ....................................................................................146 Breadth Thrust ....................................................................................147 Summary of Breadth Indicators ..........................................................148 Up and Down Volume Indicators ............................149 The Arms Index ..................................................................................149 Ninety Percent Downside Days (NPDD) ............................................152 lO-to-l Up Volume Days and 9-to-l Down Volume Days .................153 Net New Highs and Net New Lows ..........................154 New Highs Versus New Lows .............................................................755 High Low Logic Index .......................................................................156 Hindenburg Omen .............................................................................757 Using Moving Averages ....................................157 Number of Stocks above Their 30-Week Moving Average ..................757 Very Short-Term Indicators ................................159 Breadth and New Highs to New Lows ...............................................759 Net Ticks .............................................................................................160 Conclusion ................................................161 Review Questions ..........................................162 Contents x¡ 9 Temporal Patterns and Cycles ....................................163 Periods Longer than Four Years .............................164 Kond ratieff Waves, or K-Wave s ..........................................................164 34-Year Historical Cycles ...................................................................166 Decennial Pattern ...............................................................................168 Periods of Four Years or Less ..............................169 Four-Year or Presidential Cycle .........................................................170 Election Year Pattern ..........................................................................171 Seasonal Patterns ...............................................................................172 January Signals ...........................................174 January Barometer ............................................................................174 January Effect .....................................................................................174 Events ....................................................175 Conclusion ................................................175 Review Questions ..........................................176 lu Γ LU π Or Jľ UNLJo···········································»··············«·······-!. / / Funds in the Marketplace ..................................178 Money Market Funds .........................................................................178 Margin Debt ......................................................................................179 Secondary Offerings ..........................................................................180 Funds Outside the Security Market ..........................181 Household Financial Assets ...............................................................752 Money Supply .....................................................................................183 Bank Loans .........................................................................................184 The Cost of Funds .........................................185 Short-Term Interest Rates ...................................................................185 Long-Term Interest Rates (or Inversely, the Bond Market) ...............757 Money Velocity ....................................................................................187 Misery Index ......................................................................................188 Fed Policy ................................................190 Fed Policy Futures ..............................................................................191 The Federal Reserve Valuation Model ................................................192 Three Steps and a Stumble .................................................................193 Yield Curve ........................................................................................194 „к Contents Conclusion ................................................195 Review Questions ..........................................196 Part III: Trend Analysis 11 History and Construction of Charts ............199 History of Charting ........................................201 What Data Is Needed to Construct a Chart? ..................204 What 1>pes of Charts Do Analysts Use? .....................206 Line Charts .........................................................................................207 Bar Charts ..........................................................................................210 Candlestick Charts .............................................................................211 What Type of Scale Should Be Used? ........................213 Arithmetic Scale ..................................................................................213 Semi-Logarithmic Scale ......................................................................214 Point-and-Figure Charts ...................................215 One-Box (Point) Reversal ...................................................................276 Box Size ..............................................................................................217 M ultibox Reversal ...............................................................................217 Time ....................................................................................................218 Arithmetic Scale ..................................................................................220 Logarithmic Scale ...............................................................................220 Conclusion ................................................220 Review Questions ..........................................221 12 Trends—The Basics ........................................................223 Trend—The Key to Profits ..................................224 Trend Terminology ........................................225 Basis of Trend Analysis — Dow Theory .......................225 How Does Investor Psychology Impact Trends? ...............226 How Is the Trend Determined? ..............................227 Peaks and Troughs ..............................................................................228 Contents ХНІ Determining a Trading Range ...............................230 What Is Support and Resistance? .......................................................230 Why Do Support and Resistance Occur? ...........................................230 What About Round Numbers? ...........................................................232 How Are Important Reversal Points Determined? .............................232 How Do Analysts Use Trading Ranges? .............................................236 Directional Trends (Up and Down) ..........................237 What Is a Directional Trend? .............................................................238 How Is an Uptrend Spotted? ..............................................................238 Channels .............................................................................................243 Internal Trend Lines ...........................................................................244 Retracements ......................................................................................245 Pullbacks and Throwbacks .................................................................247 Other Types of Trend Lines .................................247 Trend Lines on Point-and-Figure Charts ............................................248 Speed Lines ........................................................................................248 Andrews Pitchfork .............................................................................249 Gann Fan Lines ..................................................................................250 Conclusion ................................................251 Review Questions ..........................................251 13 Breakouts, Stops, and Retracements .........................255 Breakouts .................................................255 How Is Breakout Confirmed? .............................................................256 Can a Breakout Be Anticipated? ........................................................262 Stops .....................................................263 What Are Entry and Exit Stops? .........................................................263 Changing Stop Orders ........................................................................264 What Are Protective Stops? ................................................................264 What Are Trailing Stops? ....................................................................265 What Are Time Stops? .........................................................................268 What Are Money Stops? ......................................................................269 How Can Stops Be Used with Breakouts? ..........................................269 Using Stops When Gaps Occur ..........................................................269 Waiting for Retracement .....................................................................270 Calculating a Risk/Return Ratio for Breakout Trading ......................271 Placing Stops for a False (or Specialist ) Breakout ........................272 x¡v Contents Conclusion ................................................273 Review Questions ..........................................274 14 Moving Averages .............................................................275 What Is a Moving Average? .................................276 How Is a Simple Moving Average Calculated? ................276 Length of Moving Average ..................................................................279 Using Multiple Moving Averages .......................................................280 What Other Types of Moving Averages Are Used? .............281 The Linearly Weighted Moving Average (LWMA) ..............................282 The Exponentially Smoothed Moving Average (EMA) .......................282 Wilder Method ...................................................................................284 Geometric Moving Average (GMA) ....................................................284 Triangular Moving Average ................................................................285 Variable EMAs ....................................................................................285 Strategies for Using Moving Averages ........................285 Determining Trend ..............................................................................285 Determining Support and Resistance .................................................286 Determining Price Extremes ..............................................................287 Giving Specific Signals .......................................................................288 What Is Directional Movement? .............................288 Constructing Directional Movement Indicators .................................289 Using Directional Movement Indicators ............................................289 What Are Envelopes, Channels, and Bands? ..................291 Percentage Envelopes ........................................................................291 Bands ..................................................................................................292 Trading Strategies Using Bands and Envelopes .................................294 Channel .............................................................................................295 Conclusion. ...............................................296 Review Questions ..........................................297 Contents xv Part IV: Chart Pattern Analysis 15 Bar Chart Patterns ............................301 What Is a Pattern? .........................................302 Common Pattern Characteristics .......................................................302 Do Patterns Exist? .........................................303 Behavioral Finance and Pattern Recognition ....................................304 Computers and Pattern Recognition .........................305 Market Structure and Pattern Recognition ...................306 Bar Charts and Patterns ...................................307 How Profitable Are Patterns? ...............................308 Classic Bar Chart Patterns .................................309 Double Top and Double Bottom .........................................................309 Rectangle (Also Trading Range or Box ) ....................................310 Triple Top and Triple Bottom ..............................................................313 Standard Triangles .............................................................................314 Descending Triangle ...........................................................................315 Ascending Triangle .............................................................................317 Symmetrical Triangle (Also Coil or Isosceles Triangle ) ............317 Broadening Patterns ...........................................................................320 Diamond Top ......................................................................................321 Wedge and Climax ..............................................................................322 Patterns with Rounded Edges — Rounding and Head-and- Shoulders ...........................................325 Rounding Top, Rounding Bottom (Also Saucer Bowl, or Cup ) .........................................................................................325 Head-and- Shoulders ...........................................................................326 Shorter Continuation Trading Patterns — Flags and Pennants (Also Half-MastFormation ) ....................................................329 Long-Term Bar Chart Patterns with the Best Performance and the Lowest Risk of Failure ........................332 Conclusion ................................................332 Review Questions ..........................................333 xv¡ Contents 16 POINT-AND-FlGURE CHART PATTERNS ...............................335 What Is Different About a Point-and-Figure Chart? ...........336 Time and Volume Omitted ...................................................................336 Continuous Price Flow Necessary .....................................................336 Old and New Methods ...............................................................337 History of Point-and-Figure Charting ........................337 One-Box Reversal Point-and-Figure Charts ..................339 Consolidation Area on the One-Box Chart (Also Congestion Area ) ..........................................................................................340 Trend Lines in One-Box Charts ..........................................................340 The Count in a One-Point Chart ........................................................341 Head-and-Shoulders Pattern ..............................................................343 The Fulcrum .......................................................................................344 Action Points .......................................................................................344 Three-Point (or Box) Reversal Point-and-Figure Charts .......345 Trend Lines with Three-Box Charts ....................................................346 The Count Using Three-Box Reversal Charts ....................................347 The Eight Standard Patterns for Three-Box Reversal Charts .............348 Other Patterns ....................................................................................354 Conclusion ................................................357 Review Questions ..........................................357 Pattern Construction and Determination .....................362 Traditional Short-Term Patterns ............................362 Gaps ....................................................................................................363 Spike (or Wide-Range or Large-Range Bar) ......................................370 Dead Cat Bounce (DCB) ...................................................................371 Island Reversal ...................................................................................373 One- and Two-Bar Reversal Patterns .................................................373 Multiple Bar Patterns .........................................................................380 Volatility Patterns ...............................................................................384 Intraday Patterns ................................................................................386 Summary of Short-Term Patterns ...........................389 Contents xvii Candlestick Patterns .......................................390 One- and Two-Bar Candlestick Patterns ............................................391 Multiple Bar Patterns .........................................................................396 Candlestick Pattern Results ................................................................401 Conclusion ................................................402 Review Questions ..........................................402 Part V: Trend Confirmation 18 Confirmation .................................407 Analysis Methods ..........................................408 Overbought/Oversold .........................................................................408 Failure Swings ....................................................................................409 Divergences ........................................................................................409 Reversals .............................................................................................410 Trend ID ..............................................................................................410 Crossovers ..........................................................................................411 Classic Patterns ..................................................................................411 Volume Confirmation ......................................411 What Is Volume? .................................................................................411 How Is Volume Portrayed? .................................................................412 Do Volume Statistics Contain Valuable Information? ........................414 How Are Volume Statistics Used? .......................................................415 Which Indexes and Oscillators Incorporate Volume? ........................416 Volume Spikes .....................................................................................425 Examples of Volume Spikes .................................................................426 Open Interest .............................................427 What Is Open Interest? .......................................................................427 Open Interest Indicators .....................................................................428 Price Confirmation ........................................429 What Is Momentum? ...........................................................................430 How Successful Are Momentum Indicators? ......................................431 Specific Indexes and Oscillators .........................................................432 Conclusion ................................................444 Review Questions ..........................................445 xv¡jj Contents Part VI: Other Technical Methods and Rules 19 Cycles .......................................449 What Are Cycles? .........................................452 Other Aspects of Cycle Analysis .........................................................455 Translation ...............................................457 How Can Cycles Be Found in Market Data? ..................458 Fourier Analysis (Spectral Analysis) ..................................................458 Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis .................................................459 Simpler (and More Practical) Methods .............................................459 Projections ................................................467 Projecting Period ................................................................................468 Projecting Amplitude ..........................................................................470 Conclusion ................................................475 Review Questions ..........................................475 20 Elliott, Fibonacci, and Gann ........................................477 Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) .................................477 Ralph Nelson Elliott ...........................................................................478 Basic Elliott Wave Theory ...................................................................478 Impulse Waves ....................................................................................480 Corrective Waves ................................................................................483 Guidelines and General Characteristics in EWT ...............................486 Projected Targets and Retracements ..................................................488 Alternatives to EWT. ...........................................................................490 Using EWT .........................................................................................491 The Fibonacci Sequence ....................................492 Fibonacci ............................................................................................493 The Fibonacci Sequence ............................................................. 493 The Golden Ratio ........................................................................,,,,.,..493 Price and Time Targets ..................................................... ...495 W. D. Gann ............................................................ 497 Conclusion ....................................... β # ...... 49g Review Questions .......................................... 499 Contents x¡x Part VII: Selection 21 Selection of Markets and Issues: Trading and Investing .....................................503 Which Issues Should I Select for Trading? ...................503 Choosing Between Futures Markets and Stock Markets ....................504 Which Issues Should I Select for Investing? ..................506 Top-Down Analysis ........................................507 Secular Emphasis ...............................................................................507 Cyclical Emphasis ..............................................................................570 Stock Market Industry Sectors ............................................................575 Bottom Up — Specific Stock Selection and Relative Strength . ♦.. 516 Relative Strength .................................................................................577 Academic Studies of Relative Strength ...............................................577 Measuring Relative Strength ..............................................................518 Examples of How Selected Professionals Screen for Favorable Stocks ...............................................520 William O Neìl CANSLIM Method .....................................................521 James P. O Shaughnessy Method .......................................................521 Charles D. Kirkpatrick Method ..........................................................522 Value Line Method ..............................................................................522 Richard D. Wyckoff Method ................................................................522 Conclusion ................................................525 Review Questions ..........................................525 Part VIII: System Testing and Management 22 System Design and Testing ......................529 Why Are Systems Necessary? ...............................530 Discretionary Versus Nondiscretionary Systems ................................530 How Do I Design a System? .................................532 Requirements for Designing a System ................................................532 Understanding Risk ............................................................................533 Contents Initial Decisions .................................................................................534 Types of Technical Systems .................................................................535 How Do I Test a System? ...................................538 Special Data Problems for Futures Systems .......................................539 Testing Methods and Tools .................................................................540 Test Parameter Ranges .......................................................................540 Optimization ..............................................546 Methods of Optimizing .......................................................................546 Measuring System Results for Robustness .........................................549 Conclusion ................................................556 Review Questions ..........................................557 23 Money and Risk Management .......................................559 Risk and Money Management ..............................560 Testing Money-Management Strategies ......................561 Money-Management Risks .................................562 Concepts .............................................................................................562 Reward to Risk ....................................................................................564 Normal Risks ......................................................................................564 Unusual Risks .....................................................................................570 Money-Management Risk Strategies .........................572 Monitoring Systems and Portfolios ..........................577 If Everything Goes Wrong ..................................577 Conclusion ................................................577 Review Questions ..........................................578 Part IX: Appendices A Basic Statistics ................................581 Returns ...................................................581 Probability and Statistics ...................................582 Contents xxi Descriptive Statistics .......................................583 Measures of Central Tendency ...........................................................583 Measures of Dispersion ......................................................................585 Relationships Between Variables ........................................................586 Inferential Statistics .......................................591 Modern Portfolio Theory ...................................594 Performance Measurement .................................600 Advanced Statistical Methods ...............................602 Artificial Intelligence ......................................603 Review Questions ..........................................604 В Types of Orders and Other Trader Terminology ...607 An Order Ticket ...........................................609 Oliti νΙΟίτίγΑΡ H ι ·.■«.«...·...«.···«.. ...«··.·...».·.·>···..····«·····.>·.*·<·.»«.·. ..• J. IV Diva «.····.«»..».·.....·····.··#·...·....·.··..»·..·»··.····.·...···«».······.·«·.·».···..» »«•••О»? /
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genre_facet	Lehrbuch
id	DE-604.BV040384877
illustrated	Illustrated
indexdate	2024-07-10T00:22:52Z
institution	BVB
isbn	9780137059447
language	English
lccn	2010032991
oai_aleph_id	oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-025238329
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open_access_boolean
owner	DE-526 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG
owner_facet	DE-526 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG
physical	XXVI, 671 S. graph. Darst.
publishDate	2011
publishDateSearch	2011
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publisher	Pearson
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spelling	Kirkpatrick, Charles D. Verfasser aut Technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians Charles D. Kirkpatrick ; Julie Dahlquist 2. ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ Pearson 2011 XXVI, 671 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references (p. 611-636) and index Technical analysis (Investment analysis) Investment analysis Markttechnische Analyse (DE-588)4261792-3 gnd rswk-swf Anlagepolitik (DE-588)4206018-7 gnd rswk-swf Börsenspekulation (DE-588)4131941-2 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4123623-3 Lehrbuch gnd-content Anlagepolitik (DE-588)4206018-7 s Börsenspekulation (DE-588)4131941-2 s Markttechnische Analyse (DE-588)4261792-3 s DE-604 Dahlquist, Julie R. 1962- Sonstige (DE-588)143100637 oth Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025238329&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis
spellingShingle	Kirkpatrick, Charles D. Technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians Technical analysis (Investment analysis) Investment analysis Markttechnische Analyse (DE-588)4261792-3 gnd Anlagepolitik (DE-588)4206018-7 gnd Börsenspekulation (DE-588)4131941-2 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)4261792-3 (DE-588)4206018-7 (DE-588)4131941-2 (DE-588)4123623-3
title	Technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians
title_auth	Technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians
title_exact_search	Technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians
title_full	Technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians Charles D. Kirkpatrick ; Julie Dahlquist
title_fullStr	Technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians Charles D. Kirkpatrick ; Julie Dahlquist
title_full_unstemmed	Technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians Charles D. Kirkpatrick ; Julie Dahlquist
title_short	Technical analysis
title_sort	technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians
title_sub	the complete resource for financial market technicians
topic	Technical analysis (Investment analysis) Investment analysis Markttechnische Analyse (DE-588)4261792-3 gnd Anlagepolitik (DE-588)4206018-7 gnd Börsenspekulation (DE-588)4131941-2 gnd
topic_facet	Technical analysis (Investment analysis) Investment analysis Markttechnische Analyse Anlagepolitik Börsenspekulation Lehrbuch
url	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025238329&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
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