The macro economics of EU integration: the case of Romania
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Bucureşti
Rosetti Educaţional
2008
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | 470 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9789737881342 |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804149334904668160 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
Foreword
...........................................................................................17
Introduction
......................................................................................23
CHAPTER
1
PITFALLS OF FISCAL POLICY
IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES
(D. Daianu and R. P. Vranceanu)
....................................................31
1.
INTRODUCTION
....................................................................33
2.
FREE-RIDER BEHAVIOUR AND THE COST OF
A WEAK STATE
.....................................................................36
2.1.
Main assumptions and optimal decision of the firm
........36
2.2.
The strategic decision of the firms
...................................38
3.
A CASE OF A WELL-INTENDED EXCESSIVE
TAX BURDEN
........................................................................40
3.1.
A rather general formulation
............................................40
3.2.
A numerical example
.......................................................43
4.
CONCLUSION
........................................................................44
REFERENCES
..............................................................................47
CHAPTER
2
OPENING THE CAPITAL ACCOUNT OF DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES: SOME POLICY ISSUES
(Daniel Daianu and
Radu
Vranceanu)
-------------------------------49
1.
INTRODUCTION
....................................................................51
2.
GAINS AND RISKS ASSOCIATED TO
K. A. LIBERALIZATION
.......................................................53
2.1.
The long run balance
........................................................53
o
Contents
а
2.2.
The short-term risks
.........................................................
56
3.
IMPLEMENTING K.A. LIBERALIZATION:
ELEMENTS OF A DIAGNOSIS
.............................................59
3.1.
Macroeconomic stability and opening the capital
account
.............................................................................59
3.2.
Market competition and opening the capital account
......62
3.3.
Weak financial systems and opening the capital
account
.............................................................................63
4.
CAPITAL CONTROLS DURING TRANSITION TO
A MATURE MARKET ECONOMY
......................................64
4.1.
Basic rationale for capital controls
...................................64
4.2.
Fixed exchange rates and capital controls
........................66
4.3.
Flexible exchange rates and capital controls
....................68
4.4.
Capital controls and the time pattern of
external funding
...............................................................69
5.
TRANSITION ECONOMIES: CHALLENGES AND
RISKS ASSOCIATED TO K.A. LIBERALIZATION
............71
5.1.
EU
criteria for membership and the K.A.
liberalization
.....................................................................71
5.2.
Real appreciation and the control of capital inflows
........72
5.3.
Short-term risks from K.A. liberalization specific to
transition economies
........................................................74
6.
CONCLUSION
........................................................................76
REFERENCES
..............................................................................79
CHAPTER
3
INFLATION TARGETING, BETWEEN RHETORIC AND
REALITY. THE CASE OF TRANSITION ECONOMIES
(Daniel Daianu and Laurian Lungu)
_______.___________··----83
1.
INTRODUCTION
....................................................................85
2.
INFLATION TARGETING: THEORY AND POLICY
..........87
3.
THE EUROPEAN CONTEXT OF MONETARY
POLICY MANAGEMENT
......................................................91
3.1.
The ECB
s
monetary policy management
...............·.......91
3.2.
Monetary Policy Practice at the Bank of England
...........92
3.3.
The Baltic Countries
........................................................93
Contents
9
4.
INFLATION TARGETING IN TRANSITION
ECONOMIES, ISSUES AND EXPERIENCE
........................99
4.1.
Is the IT Framework Solely Responsible for the
Disinflation Process?
........................................................99
4.2.
IT Experience so in
ЕЕ
Countries
..................................102
4.3.
Policy Implications for IT Countries in
ЕЕ
....................105
4.4.
Brief Individual Country Economic Issues
....................110
4.5.
Is There a Better Alternative for Monetary Policy?
.......114
5.
CONCLUSIONS
....................................................................116
REFERENCES
............................................................................118
APPENDIX
1.
SELECTED
MACROECONOMIC
VARIABLES
...............................................................................121
CHAPTER
4
SUBDUING HIGH INFLATION IN ROMANIA.
HOW TO BETTER MONETARY AND EXCHANGE
RATE MECHANISMS?
(Daniel Daianu and
Radu
Vranceanu)
____________________123
1.
INTRODUCTION
..................................................................125
FIRST PART: THEORY
2.
INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN A
CENTRALISED TRANSITION ECONOMY
.......................129
3.
MONETARY DISCIPLINE, FISCAL DISCIPLINE
AND THE EXCHANGE RATE MECHANISM
...................131
4.
SPECULATIVE ATTACKS AND CURRENCY
BOARDS
................................................................................136
4.1.
First generation models: arguments pro currency
boards
.............................................................................136
4.2.
Currency boards, the Phillips curve and output
cycles
..............................................................................137
4.3.
Self-fulfilling prophecies and speculative attacks
..........140
SECOND PART: ROMANIA UNDER SCRUTINY
5.
A BASIC INTRODUCTION TO THE ROMANIAN
ECONOMIC CONTEXT
.......................................................142
6.
THE ROMANIAN BANKING SYSTEM
.............................145
6.1.
Ordinary banks and the credit market
............................145
,
ç.
Contents
6.2.
The central bank
.............................................................146
7.
MONEY, THE MONETARY BASE AND THE
BASE MULTIPLIER
.............................................................148
7.1.
Some relevant stylised facts
...........................................148
7.2.
The structure of the base multiplier
...............................149
7.3.
The
NBR
balance sheet: asset side
................................152
7.4.
Sterilization:
NBR
methods
...........................................155
8.
THE EXCHANGE RATE POLICY
.......................................159
9.
MORE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON THE
DEVALUATION-INFLATIONRELATIONSHIP
............161
10.
CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS
FORROMANIA
....................................................................164
APPENDIX A. MAIN ECONOMETRIC TESTS
......................170
REFERENCES
............................................................................172
CHAPTERS
ROMANIA S MONETARY INSTITUTIONS AND
POLICY: MEETING THE
EU
CHALLENGE
(Daniel Daianu, Laurian Lungu,
Radu
Vranceanu)
....................177
1.
INTRODUCTION
..................................................................179
2.
MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EMU
.................182
2.1.
The ECB s mission and the official position
.................183
2.1.1.
Price stability
.......................................................184
2.1.2.
Employment and growth
......................................184
2.1.3.
A money quantity target?
.....................................185
2.1.4.
The exchange rate
................................................186
2.2.
The ECB instruments
.....................................................187
2.3.
The ECB interest rate rale
..............................................189
3.
INFLATION TARGETING: THEORY AND POLICY
........192
3.1.
Basics of IT
....................................................................192
3.2.
Is the ECB a genuine inflation targeter ?
.....................198
3.3.
IT in the context of developing countries
:
a comment
... 201
4.
MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN ROMANIA
................202
4.Ί.
The overall picture
.........................................................202
4.2.
Recovering reserves and opposing the
ROL
appreciation....
................................................................204
Contents
4.3.
Fighting inflation
............................................................207
5.
GENERAL CONDITIONS FOR MONETARY
POLICY MANAGEMENT
....................................................212
5.1.
The financial system and monetary-related factors
........214
5.1.1.
The industrial structure of the banking sector
......214
5.1.2.
Low level of monetization
...................................214
5.1.3.
Massive euro/dollarization (on both asset and
liability sides)
.......................................................215
5.1.4.
The informal sector and the demand for cash
......218
5.2.
Arrears and the fiscal burden
.........................................219
5.3.
External factors
..............................................................225
6.
MONETARY POLICY GOALS IN THE RUN-UP
TO THE
EU
...........................................................................229
6.1.
EU
relevant requirements for membership
....................229
6.2.
The external balance constraint
......................................231
6.3.
Economic growth and sustainable disinflation
..............235
6.4.
EU-specific fiscal pressures and the risk of deficit
monetization
...................................................................237
7.
POLICY
RECOMMANDATIONS
........................................238
7.1.
Inflation targeting
...........................................................239
7.2.
Exchange rate policy
......................................................243
7.3.
Capital account liberalization
.........................................244
8.
CONCLUSION
....................................... ...............................245
APPENDIX: A SIMPLE ECONOMETRIC MODEL
................247
REFERENCES
............................................................................252
CHAPTER
6
OPENING THE CAPITAL ACCOUNT IN ROMANIA:
HOW MUCH AND HOW FAST?
(Daniel Daianu, Ion Dragulin, Liviu Voinea,
Radu Vranceanu)
-------------------..................................................257
CHAPTER
1.
OPENING THE CAPITAL ACCOUNT:
SOME THEORY AND POLICY ISSUES
..................................261
1.1.
Introduction: capital market integration
.........................261
1.2.
Gains and risks associated to capital account
liberalization
(KAL)
.......................................................263
«
ry
Contents
1.2.1.
The long-term view
..............................................263
1.2.2.
The short-term view
.............................................268
1.3.
Implementing
KAL:
elements of a diagnosis
.................271
1.3.1.
Macroeconomic
stability and opening the
capital account
.....................................................271
1.3.2.
Structural fragility and opening the capital
account
.................................................................273
1.3.3.
Weak financial systems and opening the
capital account
.....................................................275
1.4.
Capital controls during transition to a mature
market economy
.............................................................276
1.4.1.
BasÄ
rationale for capital controls
......................276
1.4.2.
Fixed exchange rates: capital controls and
monetary policy autonomy
..................................278
1.4.3.
Fixed exchange rates: currency attacks,
capital flight and capital controls
........................ .279
1.4.4.
Flexible exchange rates and capital controls
.......282
1.4.5.
Capital controls and excessive currency
appreciation
..........................................................282
1.4.6.
Capital controls and short-term financing
............283
1.5.
Sequencing the capital account opening
........................287
1.6.
Transition economies: challenges and risks
associated to KA liberalization
......................................291
1.6.1.
EU
criteria for membership and the KA
liberalisation
.........................................................291
1.6.2.
Real appreciation and the control of capital
inflows
.................................................................293
1.6.3.
Short-term risks from KA liberalization
specific to transition economies
...........................295
1.7.
Summing up
...................................................................297
CHAPTER
2.
OVERVIEW OF THE ROMANIAN
ECONOMY: HOW PREPARED IS SHE FOR
KAL?
...............299
2.1.
Macroeconomic
dynamics
.............................................299
2.2.
Policy responses
.............................................................311
2.3.
Structural aspects
...........................................................318
Contents
1
3
2.4.
Financial system
.............................................................321
2.4.1.
Positive developments
.........................................321
2.4.2.
Main weaknesses
.................................................323
2.4.3.
Financial markets
.................................................327
CHAPTER
3.
CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY
RECOMMENDATIONS
.............................................................329
3.1.
Main vulnerabilities of the Romanian economy
in the context of
KAL
....................................................330
3.2.
Analysis of the current Romanian
KAL
timetable
.........335
3.3.
Policy recommendations
................................................346
REFERENCES
............................................................................351
ANNEXES
..................................................................................356
Annex
1.
Romania: Indicators of External Vulnerability,
1997-2002 1/
(in percent of GDP unless otherwise
specified)
........................................................................356
Annex
2.
Key prudential indicators
........................................359
Annex
3.
Romania
-
prudential regulations
...........................360
Annex
4.
Compatibility of Deposit Insurance System in
Romania with selected best practices
.............................362
Annex
5.
Interbank money market
.........................................365
Annex
6.
Types of risks related top specific operations
on the capital account
.....................................................366
Annex
7.
NBR s
KAL
timetable
............................................367
CHAPTER
7
DISINFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY ARRANGE¬
MENTS IN ROMANIA
(Daniel Daianu, Ella
Kállai)
...........................................................371
INTRODUCTION
.......................................................................373
1.
WHERE DOES ROMANIA S MONETARY
ECONOMY COME FROM
...................................................374
2.
THE CONTEXT OF DISINFLATION
..................................376
3.
INFLATION TARGETING
(ГГ)
............................................379
3.1.
ГГ
as a monetary policy regime
......................................379
3.2.
The Economics of Inflation Targeting
...........................380
,
.
Contents
3.3.
Experience with inflation targeting worldwide,
in transition (emerging) economies
................................381
4.
IMPLEMENTING INFLATION TARGETING
IN ROMANIA
........................................................................383
4.1.
Rationale for adopting IT in Romania
...........................384
4.2.
Features of the monetary economy in Romania
.............385
4.2.1.
The structure of the banking sector
......................386
4.2.2.
Low monetization
................................................387
4.2.3.
Euro/dollarization (on both asset and liability
sides)
....................................................................387
4.2.4.
The informal sector and the demand for cash
......388
4.2.5.
Size and openness
................................................389
4.3.
Structural constraints of IT implementation
...................390
4.4.
Policy implications of IT
................................................392
4.4.1.
The credibility challenge
.....................................392
4.4.2.
Overburdening of budget policy
..........................392
4.4.3.
Excessive appreciation of
ROL
...........................394
4.4.4.
Possible large variability of output dynamics
......394
5.
POLICY CHOICES (MP ANDERP)
....................................394
5.1.
Inflation targeting: why a hard version is not
recommended
.................................................................395
5.2.
Exchange rate policy
......................................................398
CONCLUSION
...........................................................................398
REFERENCES
............................................................................402
CHAPTERS
WHY IS THIS INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
OCCURRING? HOW TO RESPOND TO IT?
(Daniel Daianu and
Lauňan
Lungu)
............................................407
1.
INTRODUCTION
..................................................................409
2.
A CLASSIFICATION OF FINANCIAL CRISES
.................411
2.1.
What Causes Financial Crises?
......................................411
2.2.
Relevant History Lessons and Policy Implications
........414
3.
THE CURRENT CRISIS
-
WHAT HAS TRIGGERED
ΓΓ
AND IMPLICATIONS
..........................................................417
3.1.
The Roots of the Current Crisis
.....................................417
Contents
15
3.2.
Features of the current crisis
..........................................419
3.2.1.
The Shadow Banking System
...........................420
3.2.2.
The High Level of Concentration
........................423
3.2.3.
The Breadth of the Crisis and the Lack of
Trust
.....................................................................423
3.2.4.
Extensive Leverage on a Large Scale by Some
Market Participants
..............................................425
3.2.5.
Rating Agencies Deficiencies
..............................427
4.
HOW TO RESPOND TO THIS CRISIS
...............................428
4.1.
Improving Transparency
................................................429
4.2.
Resolving Conflicts of Interest Among Market
Participants
.....................................................................431
4.3.
Improving the Existing Regulatory and Supervisory
Frameworks
....................................................................432
REFERENCES
............................................................................436
APPENDIX
1.
THE RECURRENCE OF FINANCIAL
CRISES IN ECONOMIC HISTORY
..........................................441
APPENDIX
2.
THREE-MONTH INTERBANK
SPREAD RATES OVER THE BASE RATE
.............................448
AFTERWORD:
A STRAINED EUROPEAN MODEL.
IS EASTERN ENLARGEMENT TO BLAME?
(Daniel
Dăianu)
...............................................................................449
INTRODUCTION
.......................................................................451
1.
THE EUROPEAN SOCIAL MODEL AND ROOTS
OF ITS STRAIN
....................................................................452
2.
THE RACE FOR COMPETITIVENESS
...............................455
3.
WHO FEARS GLOBALIZATION?
......................................458
4.
HIGH GROWTH RATES ARE NOT ENOUGH.
THE CASE OF CENTRAL EUROPE
...................................461
5.
THE FUTURE OF THE ESM
................................................464
REFERENCES
............................................................................468
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| geographic | Rumänien (DE-588)4050939-4 gnd Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Rumänien Osteuropa |
| id | DE-604.BV040312314 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T00:21:23Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9789737881342 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-025167079 |
| oclc_num | 802659651 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 |
| physical | 470 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2008 |
| publishDateSearch | 2008 |
| publishDateSort | 2008 |
| publisher | Rosetti Educaţional |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | The macro economics of EU integration the case of Romania Daniel Dăianu (ed.) The macroeconomics of EU integration Bucureşti Rosetti Educaţional 2008 470 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Geschichte 1995-2008 gnd rswk-swf Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd rswk-swf Europäische Integration (DE-588)4071013-0 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf Rumänien (DE-588)4050939-4 gnd rswk-swf Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 gnd rswk-swf Rumänien (DE-588)4050939-4 g Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 g Europäische Integration (DE-588)4071013-0 s Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 s Geschichte 1995-2008 z DE-604 Dăianu, Daniel 1952- Sonstige (DE-588)114300844 oth Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen 2 application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025167079&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | The macro economics of EU integration the case of Romania Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd Europäische Integration (DE-588)4071013-0 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4037174-8 (DE-588)4071013-0 (DE-588)4066399-1 (DE-588)4050939-4 (DE-588)4075739-0 |
| title | The macro economics of EU integration the case of Romania |
| title_alt | The macroeconomics of EU integration |
| title_auth | The macro economics of EU integration the case of Romania |
| title_exact_search | The macro economics of EU integration the case of Romania |
| title_full | The macro economics of EU integration the case of Romania Daniel Dăianu (ed.) |
| title_fullStr | The macro economics of EU integration the case of Romania Daniel Dăianu (ed.) |
| title_full_unstemmed | The macro economics of EU integration the case of Romania Daniel Dăianu (ed.) |
| title_short | The macro economics of EU integration |
| title_sort | the macro economics of eu integration the case of romania |
| title_sub | the case of Romania |
| topic | Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd Europäische Integration (DE-588)4071013-0 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Makroökonomie Europäische Integration Wirtschaft Rumänien Osteuropa |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025167079&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT daianudaniel themacroeconomicsofeuintegrationthecaseofromania AT daianudaniel themacroeconomicsofeuintegration |