Changes in flood risk in Europe:
Gespeichert in:
| Weitere Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Wallingford, Oxfordshire
IAHS Press [u.a.]
2012
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IAHS special publication
10 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XV, 516 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten |
| ISBN: | 9781907161285 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Titel: Changes in flood risk in Europe
Autor: Kundzewicz, Zbigniew
Jahr: 2012
CONTENTS
Foreword by Gordon Young ix
Preface by Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz xi
I Introduction
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
1.1 Preliminaries 1
1.2 Structure of the Book 1
1.3 Flood Risk Change 4
1.4 Concluding Remarks 5
1 FACETS OF CHANGE
2 Changes in Flood Risk - Setting the Stage
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Erich J. Plate, Harvey J. E. Rodda,
John C. Rodda, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber Witold G. Strupczewski
2.1 Introduction 11
2.2 Flood Risk 13
2.3 Multi-causality 15
2.4 Recent Changes in Flood Risk 16
2.5 Adaptation - Flood Risk Reduction 19
2.6 Concluding Remarks 24
3 Catalogue of Large Floods in Europe in the 20th Century
Adam Choryñski, Iwona Piñskwar, Wolfgang Krön, G. Robert Brakenridge
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
3.1 Introduction and Outline 27
3.2 Sources of Information 28
3.3 Known Errors and Uncertainties 29
3.4 The Flood Catalogue 32
3.5 Concluding Remarks 53
4 Large-scale Flooding in Europe, 1961-2005
Christel Prudhomme, Simon Parry, Marie Genevier, Jamie Hannaford
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
4.1 Introduction 55
4.2 A Catalogue of European Regional High Flows, 1961-2005 56
4.3 Flood Peaks and Preceding Circulation Types: Relationships in Europe 70
iv Contents
5 Changing Floods in Europe
Iwona Piñskwar, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Pascal Peduzzi,
G. Robert Brakenridge, Kerstin Stahl Jamie Hannaford
5.1 Introduction 83
5.2 Observed Development of Climatic Drivers 83
5.3 Changes in River Discharge 85
5.4 Changes in Maximum Flow 87
5.5 Exposure to Floods 89
5.6 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe 89
5.7 Concluding Remarks 95
6 Changes in Intense Precipitation in Europe
Olga Zolina
6.1 Introduction 97
6.2 Data for Estimation of Intense Precipitation 98
6.3 Absolute Precipitation Extremes over Europe 100
6.4 Climate Tendencies in the Relative Precipitation Extremeness over Europe 106
6.5 Changes in Temporal Structure of European Precipitation 112
6.6 Summary and Conclusions 116
7 Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium
Rudolf Brázdil, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Gerardo Benito, Gaston Demarée,
Neil Macdonald Lars A. Roald
7.1 Introduction 121
7.2 Beginnings of Instrumental Hydrological Measurements 123
7.3 Documentary Data about Floods 131
7.4 Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium 136
7.5 Discussion 150
7.6 Conclusions 154
II NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES
ON FLOODS
8 Floods in Austria
Günter Blöschl, Ralf Merz, Juraj Parajka, José Salinas Alberto Viglione
8.1 Introduction 169
8.2 Flood Processes in Austria 169
8.3 Changes of Floods in the Past 170
8.4 Predictability of Flood Changes 173
9 Floods in the Czech Republic
R. Brázdil, L. Reznícková, M. Havlícek L. Elleder
9.1 Introduction 178
9.2 Hydrological Observations 17g
9.3 Changes of Factors Influencing Floods 1901-2010 180
9.4 Frequency and Magnitude of Floods, 1901-2010 186
Contents v
9.5 The Most Disastrous Floods, 1901-2010 188
9.6 Floods in the Context of the Changing Environment: Discussion 191
9.7 Conclusions 195
10 Floods in France
Ignazio Giuntoli, Benjamin Renard Michel Lang
10.1 Introduction 199
10.2 The Data Set 200
10.3 Methods 201
10.4 Results 205
10.5 Conclusions 210
11 Flood Risk from a Holistic Perspective - Observed
Changes in Germany
Fred F. Hattermann, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Shaochun Huang, Tobias Vetter,
Wolfgang Krön, Olaf Burghoff, Bruno Merz, Axel Bronstert, Valentina Krysanova,
Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe, Peter Werner Ylva Häuf
11.1 Introduction and Outline 212
11.2 Climate and Hydrological Characteristics of Germany 213
11.3 Data and Methodology 217
11.4 Changes of Factors Driving Flood Hazard 217
11.5 Non-climatic Drivers of Flood Hazard: Land-use Change and River 227
Training Effects
11.6 River Discharge 231
11.7 Flood Damage 233
11.8 Concluding Remarks 234
12 Floods in Greece
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, N. Zarkadoulas
I. Markonis
12.1 Introduction 238
12.2 Reflections from the Past: Analysis of Palaeofloods 241
12.3 Reflections from the Past: Flood Mythology 243
12.4 Reflections from the Past: Flood Control in Greek Antiquity 247
12.5 Modern Greece: Positive and Negative Experiences 250
12.6 Concluding Remarks 255
13 Floods in Iceland
Ami Snorrason, Bergur Einarsson, Emmanuel Pagneux, Jórunn Hardardóttir,
Matthew J. Roberts, Oddur Sigurdsson, Ódinn Thórarinsson,
Philippe Crochet, Tornas Jóhannesson Thorsteinn Thorsteinsson
13.1 Introduction 257
13.2 Types of Floods in Iceland 257
13.3 Case Studies 261
13.4 Concluding Remarks 273
vi Contents
14 Flood Risk in Italy
Paola Salvati, Cinzia Bianchi, Mauro Rossi Fausto Guzzetti
14.1 Introduction 277
14.2 Record of Harmful Flood Events in Italy 277
14.3 Risk Evaluation 282
14.4 Comparison to Other Natural Hazards 289
14.5 Conclusions 291
15 Floods in The Netherlands
J. K. Vrijling
15.1 Introduction 293
15.2 Chronology of Major Flood Events 296
15.3 Conclusions 302
16 Floods in Norway
Lars Andreas Roald
16.1 Introduction 304
16.2 Winter Floods 306
16.3 Snowmelt Spring Floods 306
16.4 Summer Rainfall Floods 309
16.5 Autumn Floods 310
16.6 Ice-run Floods 312
16.7 Floods from Glacier-dammed Lakes - Jökullhlaup 313
16.8 Trends in Streamflow and the Occurrence of Floods 313
16.9 Update - Floods in 2011 316
17 Floods in Poland
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Andrzej Dobrowolski, Halina Lorenc,
Tadeusz Niedzwiedz, Iwona Piñskwar Piotr Kowalczak
17.1 Introduction 319
17.2 Hydrography of Poland in a Nutshell 319
17.3 Climatic Drivers 321
17.4 Causes of Floods in Poland and their Spatial and Temporal Distribution 323
17.5 Chronology of Floods in Poland 328
17.6 Concluding Remarks 332
18 Floods in Switzerland
Pefra Schmocker-Fackel Felix Naef
18.1 Introduction 335
18.2 Data and Study Site 335
18.3 Changes in Flood Frequency since 1850 337
18.4 Atmospheric Circulation and Floods 338
18.5 Changes in Flood Frequency since 1500 339
18.6 Concluding Remarks 341
Contents vii
19 Flood Risk in the UK: Evidence of Change and
Management Responses
Jamie Hannaford Jim W. Hall
19.1 Introduction 344
19.2 Background: Climate, Hydrology and Flooding 345
19.3 Recent Major Floods in the UK 348
19.4 Observed Climate Changes Relevant to Flooding 348
19.5 Trends in Fluvial Flooding 351
19.6 Links Between Flooding and Atmospheric Circulation 352
19.7 A Longer-term Perspective 353
19.8 Changes in Flood Risk and Flood Risk Management 355
19.9 Concluding Remarks 357
20 Floods in the Alpine Areas of Europe
Antoine Bard, Benjamin Renard Michel Lang
20.1 Introduction 362
20.2 The Data Set 363
20.3 Methods 367
20.4 Results 368
20.5 Conclusions 370
21 Floods in the Iberian Peninsula
Gerardo Benito Maria J. Machado
21.1 Introduction 372
21.2 Flood Hydroclimatology 372
21.3 Observed Flood Records 376
21.4 Socio-economic Losses Due to Flooding 378
21.5 Discussion and Conclusions 380
III DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION OF CHANGE,
AND PROSPECTS
22 Detection of Changes
Sheng Yue, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Linghui Wang
22.1 Introduction 387
22.2 Statistical Principles for Trend Detection 388
22.3 Site Significance Tests 390
22.4 Field Significance Tests 396
22.5 Pitfalls in Trend Detection 402
22.6 Procedures for Trend Detection 405
23 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change and Its Impacts
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Wolfgang Cramer
23.1 Introduction 409
23.2 Attribution of Global Warming In a Multi-factor Context 410
23.3 Controversy about Detection and Attribution of Climate Change 416
viii Contents
23.4 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Impacts 417
23.5 Concluding Remarks 419
24 Detection and Attribution of Changes in Water Resources
Dieter Gerten, Wolfgang Lucht Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
24.1 Introduction 421
24.2 What Influences Global River Discharge? 421
24.3 Uncertainties in Estimates of Precipitation and River Flow 423
24.4 The Model and Data Used, and Simulations Performed for this Study 425
24.5 Results and Discussion 426
24.6 Conclusion 431
25 Detection and Attribution of Changes in Flood Hazard
and Risk
Bruno Merz, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Jose Delgado, Yeshewa Hundecha
Heidi Kreibich
25 A Introduction 435
25.2 Drivers of Changing Flood Hazard and Risk 436
25.3 Changes in Flood Hazard 438
25.4 Changes in Vulnerability and Risk 450
25.5 Climate Change and Flood Trends 453
25.6 Conclusions 454
26 Changing Flood Risk - A Re-insurer s Viewpoint
by Wolfgang Kron
26.1 Introduction 459
26.2 Flood Disasters and Flood Losses in Europe 459
26.3 Types of Flood 467
26.4 Reasons for the Increasing Flood Risk 470
26.5 Flood Risk Reduction 479
26.6 Final Remarks 489
27 Projections of Flood Risk in Europe
by Christel Prudhomme, Jennifer Williamson, Simon Parry
Jamie Hannaford
27.1 European Regional High Flow Catalogue Simulated from Observed Climate 491
27.2 The Future of Regional High Flows in Europe: Results from WATCH 499
Simulations
Index 513
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| title_full | Changes in flood risk in Europe ed. by Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz |
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