2052: a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"]
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
White River Junction, Vt.
Chelsea Green Publ.
2012
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVI, 392 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 9781603584678 9781603584210 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804149084126183424 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
Acknowledgments
xi
Preface: What Will the Future Bring?
xiii
PART
1:
BACKGROUND
1
Worrying about the Future
1
Why Now?
3
Is a Forecast Possible?
4
Why Forty Years?
6
Bases for an Educated Guess
7
Full Steam Ahead with a Peaceful Mind
10
2
Five Big Issues toward
2052 11
The Sustainability Revolution
12
Five Central Issues Involving System Change
13
The End of Capitalism?
14
Glimpse
2-1 :
The Dark Decades: Privilege and Polarization
15
The End of Economic Growth?
23
Glimpse
2-2:
Constraining Asian Consumption
23
The End of Slow Democracy?
30
Glimpse
2-3:
Shuffling toward Sustainability
31
The End of Generational Harmony?
36
Glimpse
2-4:
Intergenerational War for Equity
36
The End of Stable Climate?
40
Glimpse
2-5:
Extreme Weather in
2052 43
PART
2:
MY GLOBAL FORECAST
3
The Logic behind My Forecast
53
The Guiding Star
54
A Broad-Brush Picture
54
A Brief Summary of My Story
55
The Deterministic Backbone
56
Linear Presentation of a Circular Maze
57
The Mathematical Formulation
58
A Final Note on the Data Base
59
4
Population and Consumption to
2052 62
Population Will Peak
62
Workforce Will Peak a Little Earlier
65
Productivity Will Grow, but Meet Obstacles
67
Production (GDP) Will Grow, but More and More Slowly
70
Glimpse
4-1:
The End of Uneconomic Growth
73
Investments
—
Forced and Voluntary
—
Will Increase
78
New Costs Will Emerge
81
Adaptation and Disaster Costs Will Explode
86
The State Will Get More Involved
88
Glimpse
4-2:
Light Green Growth
90
Consumption Will Stagnate
—
and Fall in Some Places
93
Energy and CO2 to
2052 99
Energy Efficiency Will Continue to Rise
99
Energy Use Will Grow, but Not Forever
102
Climate Intensity Will Be Reduced by Renewables
103
Glimpse
5-1:
The Road to PV
106
Glimpse
5-2:
The Death of Nuclear
110
CO2 Emissions from Energy Will Peak in
2030 116
Temperature Increase Will Exceed Plus 2°C
118
Plus 2°C Will Cause Real Difficulties
120
Glimpse
5-3:
Troubled Arctic Waters
121
Glimpse
5-4:
The Flight to the City
125
Food and Footprint to
2052 130
Food Production Will Satisfy Reduced Demand
130
Biofuels and White Meat Will Advance
133
Glimpse
6-1:
Expensive Oil
=
Expensive Food
133
Glimpse
6-2:
The Limits to Protein
138
Commercial Fish Stocks Will Be Confined to Regulated Fisheries
139
Planetary Ecosystems Will Suffer
143
Glimpse
6-3:
The Race to Lose Last
144
Unused Bio-capacity Will Plunge
149
Glimpse
6-4:
Urban Mining of Metals
151
Glimpse
6-5:
Nature Limited to Parks
156
The Nonmaterial Future to
2052 160
Smaller GDP: Milder Push against Global Limits
161
Slower Growth in Productivity
162
Tensions from Declining Consumption
162
Prevalence of Short-Termism
164
Stronger Government
166
Forced Redistribution
167
Megacity
Environment
169
Glimpse
7-1:
Megacity
Living and Externalization of the Mind
171
Omnipresent Internet
174
Disappearing Charms
175
Better Health
177
Glimpse
7-2:
Individual Health from Public Care
178
Armed Forces Fighting New Threats
181
Glimpse
7-3:
The Future of War and the Rise of Robots
182
Glimpse
7-4:
Military for Sustainability
185
8
The Zeitgeist in
2052 190
Fragmentation: More Focus on Local Solutions
190
Glimpse
8-1:
Scotland Joins New Europe
191
Glimpse
8-2:
The End of Mediterranean Disparity
196
Glimpse
8-3:
Slum
Urbanism
in Africa
200
A New Paradigm: Less Fixation with Economic Growth
203
Glimpse
8-4:
Valuing the Whole
205
Modified Capitalism: A Stronger Role for Wise Government
210
Glimpse
8-5:
Systemic CSR, or CSR
2.0 214
Collective Creativity: A Web of Inspired Individuals
218
Glimpse
8-6:
Harnessing the Wisdom of the Crowd
218
Glimpse
8-7:
Peak Youth Gaming for the Public Good
222
Intergenerational Equity: Widening the Lens
226
PART
3:
ANALYSIS
9
Reflections on the Future
229
The Main Drivers
229
The Future in Graphs
231
The Cliff-Hanger
234
My Own Reactions
236
Eight Straight Questions about the Future
239
Wild Cards
250
The Path to
2052 254
Glimpse
9-1:
Sudden Rush to Solar
256
Glimpse
9-2:
Financing the Future
260
10
Five Regional Futures
265
Toward
2052:
The United States
266
Glimpse
10-1:
Bright Solar Future
270
Toward
2052:
China
274
Glimpse
10-2:
China
—
the New
Hegemon
274
Toward
2052:
OECD-less-US
283
Toward
2052:
BRISE
288
Glimpse
10-3:
Rich on Biofuels
292
Toward
2052:
Rest of the World
296
11
Comparison with Other Futures
300
Testing against a Global Computer Model
300
Comparison with The Limits to Growth Studies
301
Overshoot and Collapse in Some Detail
307
Perspectives on the Second Half of the Twenty-First Century
313
Glimpse
11-1:
The Fifth Cultural Step
314
Glimpse
11-2:
The Third Flowering of the Tree of Life
318
12
What Should You Do?
323
What Global Society Ideally Should Have Done
325
Twenty Pieces of Personal Advice
328
Learn to Live with Impending Disaster without Losing Hope
351
Closing Words
353
Appendices
354
1.
Summary
354
2.
Definitions and Data Sources
356
3.
Further Reading for the
2052
Glimpses
359
4.
Extra Data on Fertility and Productivity
366
Notes
368
Index
377
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Randers, Jørgen 1945- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)112777635 |
| author_facet | Randers, Jørgen 1945- |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Randers, Jørgen 1945- |
| author_variant | j r jr |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV040123406 |
| classification_rvk | AR 14300 QC 340 |
| classification_tum | WIR 103f UMW 030f |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)796217426 (DE-599)BVBBV040123406 |
| discipline | Allgemeines Wirtschaftswissenschaften Umwelt |
| era | Prognose 2013-2052 gnd Prognose gnd |
| era_facet | Prognose 2013-2052 Prognose |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV040123406 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T00:17:24Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781603584678 9781603584210 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-024979438 |
| oclc_num | 796217426 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-N2 DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-20 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-703 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-M49 DE-BY-TUM DE-384 DE-523 DE-83 DE-M481 DE-Lfn1 DE-1046 DE-M382 |
| owner_facet | DE-N2 DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-20 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-703 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-M49 DE-BY-TUM DE-384 DE-523 DE-83 DE-M481 DE-Lfn1 DE-1046 DE-M382 |
| physical | XVI, 392 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| psigel | UBM-RCC |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publishDateSearch | 2012 |
| publishDateSort | 2012 |
| publisher | Chelsea Green Publ. |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Randers, Jørgen 1945- Verfasser (DE-588)112777635 aut 2052 a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"] Jorgan Randers Twentyfiftytwo Two thousand and fifty-two White River Junction, Vt. Chelsea Green Publ. 2012 XVI, 392 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Prognose 2013-2052 gnd rswk-swf Prognose gnd rswk-swf Economic history / 21st century Economic forecasting Wirtschaft. Geschichte Zivilisation (DE-588)4067906-8 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd rswk-swf Szenario (DE-588)4194332-6 gnd rswk-swf Umweltpolitik (DE-588)4078523-3 gnd rswk-swf Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 gnd rswk-swf Weltmodell (DE-588)4065443-6 gnd rswk-swf Ökologie (DE-588)4043207-5 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd rswk-swf Globalisierung (DE-588)4557997-0 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftswachstum (DE-588)4066527-6 gnd rswk-swf Menschheit (DE-588)4169436-3 gnd rswk-swf Nachhaltigkeit (DE-588)4326464-5 gnd rswk-swf Grenzen des Wachstums (DE-588)4113786-3 gnd rswk-swf Zukunft (DE-588)4068097-6 gnd rswk-swf Energieverbrauch (DE-588)4014733-2 gnd rswk-swf Rohstoffbedarf (DE-588)4178385-2 gnd rswk-swf Umweltschaden (DE-588)4117286-3 gnd rswk-swf Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftswachstum (DE-588)4066527-6 s Ökologie (DE-588)4043207-5 s Grenzen des Wachstums (DE-588)4113786-3 s Zukunft (DE-588)4068097-6 s Prognose z DE-604 Menschheit (DE-588)4169436-3 s Zivilisation (DE-588)4067906-8 s Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 s Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 s Rohstoffbedarf (DE-588)4178385-2 s 1\p DE-604 Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 s Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 s Globalisierung (DE-588)4557997-0 s Nachhaltigkeit (DE-588)4326464-5 s 2\p DE-604 Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s 3\p DE-604 Umweltschaden (DE-588)4117286-3 s Umweltpolitik (DE-588)4078523-3 s 4\p DE-604 Szenario (DE-588)4194332-6 s Weltmodell (DE-588)4065443-6 s Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 s 5\p DE-604 Energieverbrauch (DE-588)4014733-2 s Prognose 2013-2052 z 6\p DE-604 Digitalisierung UB Bayreuth application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024979438&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 3\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 4\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 5\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 6\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Randers, Jørgen 1945- 2052 a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"] Economic history / 21st century Economic forecasting Wirtschaft. Geschichte Zivilisation (DE-588)4067906-8 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd Szenario (DE-588)4194332-6 gnd Umweltpolitik (DE-588)4078523-3 gnd Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 gnd Weltmodell (DE-588)4065443-6 gnd Ökologie (DE-588)4043207-5 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Globalisierung (DE-588)4557997-0 gnd Wirtschaftswachstum (DE-588)4066527-6 gnd Menschheit (DE-588)4169436-3 gnd Nachhaltigkeit (DE-588)4326464-5 gnd Grenzen des Wachstums (DE-588)4113786-3 gnd Zukunft (DE-588)4068097-6 gnd Energieverbrauch (DE-588)4014733-2 gnd Rohstoffbedarf (DE-588)4178385-2 gnd Umweltschaden (DE-588)4117286-3 gnd Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4067906-8 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4065468-0 (DE-588)4194332-6 (DE-588)4078523-3 (DE-588)4164199-1 (DE-588)4129300-9 (DE-588)4065443-6 (DE-588)4043207-5 (DE-588)4066438-7 (DE-588)4557997-0 (DE-588)4066527-6 (DE-588)4169436-3 (DE-588)4326464-5 (DE-588)4113786-3 (DE-588)4068097-6 (DE-588)4014733-2 (DE-588)4178385-2 (DE-588)4117286-3 (DE-588)4125901-4 |
| title | 2052 a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"] |
| title_alt | Twentyfiftytwo Two thousand and fifty-two |
| title_auth | 2052 a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"] |
| title_exact_search | 2052 a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"] |
| title_full | 2052 a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"] Jorgan Randers |
| title_fullStr | 2052 a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"] Jorgan Randers |
| title_full_unstemmed | 2052 a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"] Jorgan Randers |
| title_short | 2052 |
| title_sort | 2052 a global forecast for the next forty years a report to the club of rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of the limits to growth |
| title_sub | a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"] |
| topic | Economic history / 21st century Economic forecasting Wirtschaft. Geschichte Zivilisation (DE-588)4067906-8 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd Szenario (DE-588)4194332-6 gnd Umweltpolitik (DE-588)4078523-3 gnd Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 gnd Weltmodell (DE-588)4065443-6 gnd Ökologie (DE-588)4043207-5 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Globalisierung (DE-588)4557997-0 gnd Wirtschaftswachstum (DE-588)4066527-6 gnd Menschheit (DE-588)4169436-3 gnd Nachhaltigkeit (DE-588)4326464-5 gnd Grenzen des Wachstums (DE-588)4113786-3 gnd Zukunft (DE-588)4068097-6 gnd Energieverbrauch (DE-588)4014733-2 gnd Rohstoffbedarf (DE-588)4178385-2 gnd Umweltschaden (DE-588)4117286-3 gnd Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Economic history / 21st century Economic forecasting Wirtschaft. Geschichte Zivilisation Prognose Weltwirtschaft Szenario Umweltpolitik Klimaänderung Bevölkerungswachstum Weltmodell Ökologie Wirtschaftsentwicklung Globalisierung Wirtschaftswachstum Menschheit Nachhaltigkeit Grenzen des Wachstums Zukunft Energieverbrauch Rohstoffbedarf Umweltschaden Weltbevölkerung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024979438&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT randersjørgen 2052aglobalforecastforthenextfortyyearsareporttotheclubofromecommemoratingthe40thanniversaryofthelimitstogrowth AT randersjørgen twentyfiftytwo AT randersjørgen twothousandandfiftytwo |