How to forecast economic developments during and after crises:
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Wien
Verl. der Österr. Akad. der Wiss.
2012
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Denkschriften / Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften, Philosophisch-Historische Klasse
429 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Literaturangaben |
| Beschreibung: | 128 S. graph. Darst. 30 cm |
| ISBN: | 9783700170891 |
Internformat
MARC
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804148971527995392 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: How to forecast economic developments during and after crises
Autor: Streissler, Erich
Jahr: 2012
Contents
Preface........................................................................................................................................... 7
Previous Publications.................................................................................................................... 8
Gunther Tichy:
Could we have foreseen the financial crisis?................................................................................ 9
1. Explanations of the recent crisis........................................................................................... 10
2. Which indications of a crisis were perceived?...................................................................... 16
3. Why did no one realize the extent of the crisis?................................................................... 19
4. What can we learn from this experience?............................................................................. 19
References................................................................................................................................. 21
Appendix................................................................................................................................... 25
Why did policy ignore the harbingers of the crisis?..................................................................... 29
l.The sources............................................................................................................................ 30
2. Risks debated by the monetary authorities............................................................................ 30
3. Risk appraisal: monetary authorities versus academia ....................................................... 36
4. Did authorities detect the risks early enough?...................................................................... 38
5. Why did monetary authorities not react to repel the identified risks?................................... 40
Summary................................................................................................................................... 45
References................................................................................................................................. 45
Regulation of the banking sector: Could stricter regulation of the banking business help avoid
a major financial crisis?................................................................................................................ 48
1. Predictability of major financial crises: experience and hopes............................................. 49
2. A combination of many factors caused the crisis.................................................................. 50
3. Would regulation of the banking sector solve the problem?................................................. 53
4. Could the crisis resistance of the system be improved?........................................................ 57
References................................................................................................................................. 60
Erich W. Streissler:
Saving and Investment in the Long Run....................................................................................... 63
1. The Present dominance of saving intentions......................................................................... 63
2. Are investments or are savings the key to long-term development?..................................... 66
Using Economic Theory for Forecasting...................................................................................... 71
i.i.d. ? or: On So-called Precise Statements in Economics......................................................... 75
1. Confusing expectations and non-homogeneity of actors...................................................... 75
2. Contradictions in exchange rate theory................................................................................. 77
3. Even Nobel Laureates in economics are fallible................................................................... 79
4. Probabilistic model specifications......................................................................................... 87
The Financial Market Crisis.......................................................................................................... 91
1. Historical and methodological background to the analysis of the present crisis.................. 91
2. The specifics of the recent crisis: Dearth of investment opportunities and surfeit of savings...... 95
Rare Events: Varying Asset Price Variances [Co-author Christoph Streissler].......................... 100
Waiting for Financial Consolidation............................................................................................. 107
1. The international monetary disequilibrium........................................................................... 107
2. Keynes ideas for the present?............................................................................................... 109
3. The surfeit of savings............................................................................................................ 112
4. Environmental investments................................................................................................... 114
Forecasting World Trends During the 2010s ............................................................................... 117
1. Preliminary remarks.............................................................................................................. 117
2. The likely future bias in innovation and real economic development.................................. 118
3. Regional monetary developments......................................................................................... 122
|
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| indexdate | 2024-07-10T00:15:37Z |
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| isbn | 9783700170891 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Streissler, Erich 1933- Verfasser (DE-588)115371176 aut How to forecast economic developments during and after crises Erich W. Streissler ; Gunther Tichy Wien Verl. der Österr. Akad. der Wiss. 2012 128 S. graph. Darst. 30 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Denkschriften / Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften, Philosophisch-Historische Klasse 429 Literaturangaben Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd rswk-swf Weltwirtschaftskrise (DE-588)4065471-0 gnd rswk-swf Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Weltwirtschaftskrise (DE-588)4065471-0 s Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 s Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 Tichy, Gunther 1937- Verfasser (DE-588)121100871 aut Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften, Philosophisch-Historische Klasse Denkschriften 429 (DE-604)BV002536149 429 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024842603&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Streissler, Erich 1933- Tichy, Gunther 1937- How to forecast economic developments during and after crises Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Weltwirtschaftskrise (DE-588)4065471-0 gnd Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4066438-7 (DE-588)4065471-0 (DE-588)7635855-0 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | How to forecast economic developments during and after crises |
| title_auth | How to forecast economic developments during and after crises |
| title_exact_search | How to forecast economic developments during and after crises |
| title_full | How to forecast economic developments during and after crises Erich W. Streissler ; Gunther Tichy |
| title_fullStr | How to forecast economic developments during and after crises Erich W. Streissler ; Gunther Tichy |
| title_full_unstemmed | How to forecast economic developments during and after crises Erich W. Streissler ; Gunther Tichy |
| title_short | How to forecast economic developments during and after crises |
| title_sort | how to forecast economic developments during and after crises |
| topic | Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Weltwirtschaftskrise (DE-588)4065471-0 gnd Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaftsentwicklung Weltwirtschaftskrise Finanzkrise Prognose Aufsatzsammlung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024842603&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002536149 |
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