The essential Herman Kahn: in defense of thinking
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Lanham
Lexington Books
2009
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references (p. 273-274) and index |
| Beschreibung: | VIIi, 277 S. 23 cm |
| ISBN: | 0739128280 0739128299 9780739128282 9780739128299 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The essential Herman Kahn |b in defense of thinking |c edited by Paul Dragos Aligica and Kenneth R. Weinstein |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Geschichte | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Futurologists |z United States |x History |y 20th century |v Sources | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Futurologists |z United States |v Biography | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804148917898575872 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: The essential Herman Kahn
Autor: Kahn, Herman (Mathematiker)
Jahr: 2009
Contents
Acknowledgments vii
Introduction 1
Paul Dragos Aligica and Kenneth R. Weinstein
Part I: Thinking about the Unthinkable: Scenarios,
Grand Strategy, and Thermonuclear War
1 In Defense of Thinking 9
2 Twelve Nonissues and Twelve Almost Nonissues 27
3 The Revolution in Warfare: Continuities and Discontinuities 39
4 On Escalation 53
5 Seizing the Moral, Political, and Strategie High Ground 63
Part II: A World Turning Point: Economic Growth,
Cultural Change, and the Long View
6 The Big Picture—and Some Details: Watersheds of History 79
7 Viewing Growth in Context 91
8 Four Characteristic Views of Two Basic Images of the
Earth-Centered Perspective 99
vi Contents
9 Some Current Cultural Contradictions of Economic Growth:
The New Emphases 115
10 Economic Development: Economic and Cultural Parameters 129
11 The Alienated-Affluent Society 141
Part III: The Challenge of the Future: Futurology, Methodology,
and Policy Research
12 The Objectives of Future-Oriented Policy Research 155
13 The Agnostic Use of Information and Concepts 167
14 Forecasting the Future: History Happens in Straight Lines
and Curves 177
15 A Methodological Framework: The Alternative
World Futures Approach 181
16 The Method of Classes of Variables 199
17 Ways to Go Wrang 205
18 Technological Innovation: Mistakes of Omission
and Commission 215
Part IV: The Task Ahead: Observations, Recommendations,
and Parting Polemies
19 The Normative Perspective and the Ideology of Tomorrow 223
20 Transitional Problems 229
21 The Expert and Educated Incapacity 237
22 Current Western Cultural Trends 247
23 Futurology and the Future of Economic Development 253
24 The Task Ahead 259
Appendix: Herman Kahn: A Bio-Bibliographical Note 267
Paul Dragos Aligica and Kenneth R. Weinstein
Selected Bibliography 273
Index 275
About the Editors 277
|
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| spelling | Kahn, Herman 1922-1983 Verfasser (DE-588)124411347 aut Selections The essential Herman Kahn in defense of thinking edited by Paul Dragos Aligica and Kenneth R. Weinstein Lanham Lexington Books 2009 VIIi, 277 S. 23 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references (p. 273-274) and index Kahn, Herman 1922-1983 Influence Geschichte 1900-2000 Geschichte Forecasting History 20th century Sources Futurologists United States History 20th century Sources Futurologists United States Biography USA (DE-588)4006804-3 Biografie gnd-content (DE-588)4135952-5 Quelle gnd-content Aligică, Paul Dragoş 1966- Sonstige (DE-588)141162961 oth Weinstein, Kenneth R. Sonstige oth Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 0-7391-3514-7 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-0-7391-3514-3 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024805696&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Kahn, Herman 1922-1983 The essential Herman Kahn in defense of thinking Kahn, Herman 1922-1983 Influence Geschichte Forecasting History 20th century Sources Futurologists United States History 20th century Sources Futurologists United States Biography |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4006804-3 (DE-588)4135952-5 |
| title | The essential Herman Kahn in defense of thinking |
| title_alt | Selections |
| title_auth | The essential Herman Kahn in defense of thinking |
| title_exact_search | The essential Herman Kahn in defense of thinking |
| title_full | The essential Herman Kahn in defense of thinking edited by Paul Dragos Aligica and Kenneth R. Weinstein |
| title_fullStr | The essential Herman Kahn in defense of thinking edited by Paul Dragos Aligica and Kenneth R. Weinstein |
| title_full_unstemmed | The essential Herman Kahn in defense of thinking edited by Paul Dragos Aligica and Kenneth R. Weinstein |
| title_short | The essential Herman Kahn |
| title_sort | the essential herman kahn in defense of thinking |
| title_sub | in defense of thinking |
| topic | Kahn, Herman 1922-1983 Influence Geschichte Forecasting History 20th century Sources Futurologists United States History 20th century Sources Futurologists United States Biography |
| topic_facet | Kahn, Herman 1922-1983 Influence Geschichte Forecasting History 20th century Sources Futurologists United States History 20th century Sources Futurologists United States Biography USA Biografie Quelle |
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