Prediction markets: fundamentals, designs, and applications
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Wiesbaden
Gabler
2012
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. ed. |
| Schriftenreihe: | Gabler Research
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltstext Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Literaturangaben |
| Beschreibung: | XIV, 140 Seiten Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9783834933584 3834933589 |
Internformat
MARC
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text |
IMAGE 1
TABLE OF CONTENTS VII
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE V
TABLE OF CONTENTS VII
LIST OF FIGURES IX
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS XI
LIST OF TABLES XIII
1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1. MOTIVATION 1
1.2. OVERVIEW AND STRUCTURE 4
2. FUNDAMENTALS OF PREDICTION MARKETS 6
2.1. HISTORY 6
2.2. DEFINITION 6
2.3. THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS 7
2.4. OPERATIONAL PRINCIPLE 9
3. KEY DESIGN ELEMENTS OF PREDICTION MARKETS 11
3.1. CONTRACTS 11
3.2. TRADING MECHANISMS 14
EXISTING MECHANISMS AND THEIR AREAS OF APPLICATION 15
COMPARISON 18
3.3. INCENTIVES 23
3.3.1. DESCRIPTION OF THE FIELD EXPERIMENT ON MONETARY INCENTIVES 24
3.3.2. TRADING ACTIVITY. 26
3.3.3. TRADING PRICES 27
3.3.4. PREDICTING ACCURACY 29
3.3.5. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS 32
3.4. TRADERS 35
3.4.1. FIELD STUDY ON TRADERS' BIASES 36
3.4.2. TRADERS' NATIONALITY AND SHAREHOLDINGS 37
3.4.3. TRADERS ' NATIONALITY AND TRADING BEHAVIOR 39
3.4.4. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS 42
3.5. TRADING SOFTWARE 43
3.5.1. USER INTERFACE 44
3.5.2. SOFTWARE SPECIFICATION 45
3.5.3. HARDWARE SPECIFICATION 46
3.5.4. GENERAL REQUIREMENTS 47
4. APPLICATIONS OF PREDICTION MARKETS 48
4.1. PREVIOUS FIELDS OF APPLICATION 48
4.1.1. SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM FORECASTS 48
4.1.2. LONG TERM FORECASTS AND EVALUATION OF CONCEPTS 54
BIBLIOGRAFISCHE INFORMATIONEN HTTP://D-NB.INFO/1016862296
DIGITALISIERT DURCH
IMAGE 2
VIII
TABLE OF CONTENTS
4.2. RESULTS FROM SELECTED FIELD EXPERIMENTS 61
4.2.1. STOCCER-A SPORTS PREDICTION MARKET 61
4.2.1.1. THE FIFA WORLD CUP 2006 61
4.2.1.2. THE STOCCER EXCHANGE 63
4.2.1.3. PREDICTION ACCURACY 75
4.2.1.4. ARBITRAGE OPPORTUNITIES 86
4.2.1.5. MARKET-MAKING TRADERS 87
4.2.2. PSM- THE POLITICAL STOCK MARKET 91
4.2.2.1. SOFTWARE PLATFORM 91
4.2.2.2. PSM AND IRREGULAR ACTIVITIES 93
4.2.2.3. FRAUD: THE 2004 UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 93
4.2.2.4. MANIPULATION: THE 2007 FEDERAL SWISS ELECTIONS 97
4.2.2.5. ABSORPTION SPEED OF EVENTS: THE EURO '08 100
4.2.3. AKX- THE AUSTRALIAN KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE 102
4.2.3.1. WATER AVAILABILITY IN AUSTRALIA 103
4.2.3.2. TRADING PLATFORM 104
4.2.3.3. TRADING ACTIVITY AND PREDICTION ACCURACY 108
4.2.3.4. CONCLUSION / //
4.3. CREATING VALUE WITH PREDICTION MARKETS IN SERVICE INDUSTRIES 112
4.3.1. SERVICE INNOVATION WITH IDEA MARKETS 112
4.3.1.1. IDEA MARKET CONCEPT 113
4.3.2. MARKET AND OPINION RESEARCH 115
5. CONCLUSION 118
INFORMATION ABOUT THE AUTHORS 120
APPENDIX A 123
BIBLIOGRAPHY 131 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author_GND | (DE-588)135574781 |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV039920320 |
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| dewey-full | 338.520112 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 338 - Production |
| dewey-raw | 338.520112 |
| dewey-search | 338.520112 |
| dewey-sort | 3338.520112 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 1. ed. |
| format | Book |
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| isbn | 9783834933584 3834933589 |
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| spelling | Prediction markets fundamentals, designs, and applications Stefan Luckner ... 1. ed. Wiesbaden Gabler 2012 XIV, 140 Seiten Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Gabler Research Literaturangaben Prognosemarkt (DE-588)7851546-4 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Prognosemarkt (DE-588)7851546-4 s b DE-604 Luckner, Stefan Sonstige (DE-588)135574781 oth Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe Prediction Markets X:MVB text/html http://deposit.dnb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=3906136&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm Inhaltstext DNB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024778820&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
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| title | Prediction markets fundamentals, designs, and applications |
| title_auth | Prediction markets fundamentals, designs, and applications |
| title_exact_search | Prediction markets fundamentals, designs, and applications |
| title_full | Prediction markets fundamentals, designs, and applications Stefan Luckner ... |
| title_fullStr | Prediction markets fundamentals, designs, and applications Stefan Luckner ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction markets fundamentals, designs, and applications Stefan Luckner ... |
| title_short | Prediction markets |
| title_sort | prediction markets fundamentals designs and applications |
| title_sub | fundamentals, designs, and applications |
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