Foundations of risk analysis:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Chichester
Wiley
2012
|
| Ausgabe: | 2. ed. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | XVI, 211 S. |
| ISBN: | 9781119966975 |
Internformat
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| 100 | 1 | |a Aven, Terje |d 1956- |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)120986469 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Foundations of risk analysis |c Terje Aven |
| 250 | |a 2. ed. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Chichester |b Wiley |c 2012 | |
| 300 | |a XVI, 211 S. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804148812347867136 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Preface
to the second edition ¡x
Preface to the first edition
x¡
1
Introduction
1
1.1
The importance of risk and uncertainty assessments
1
1.2
The need to develop a proper risk analysis framework
4
Bibliographic notes
6
2
Common thinking about risk and risk analysis
7
2.1
Accident risk
7
2.1.1
Accident statistics
7
2.1.2
Risk analysis
11
2.1.3
Reliability analysis
24
2.2
Economic risk
28
2.2.1
General definitions of economic risk in business and project
management
28
2.2.2
A cost risk analysis
30
2.2.3
Finance and portfolio theory
31
2.2.4
Treatment of risk in project discounted cash flow analysis
34
2.3
Discussion and conclusions
36
2.3.1
The classical approach
36
2.3.2
The Bayesian paradigm
37
2.3.3
Economic risk and rational decision-making
39
2.3.4
Other perspectives and applications
40
2.3.5
Conclusions
43
Bibliographic notes
43
3
How to think about risk and risk analysis
47
3.1
Basic ideas and principles
47
3.1.1
Background knowledge
52
3.1.2
Models and simplifications in probability considerations
53
3.1.3
Observable quantities
53
3.2
Economic risk
54
3.2.1
A simple cost risk example
54
3.2.2
Production risk
57
3.2.3
Business and project management
59
CONTENTS
3.2.4
Investing money
ina
stock market
3.2.5
Discounted cash
flow
analysis
3.3
Accident risk
3.4
Discussion
60
61
62
63
Bibliographic notes
68
How to assess uncertainties and specify probabilities
71
4.1
What is a good probability assignment?
72
4.1.1
Criteria for evaluating probabilities
72
4.1.2
Heuristics and biases
74
4.1.3
Evaluation of the assessors
75
4.1.4
Standardization and consensus
76
4.2
Modeling
76
4.2.1
Examples of models
77
4.2.2
Discussion
78
4.3
Assessing uncertainty of
Y
79
4.3.1
Assignments based on classical statistical methods
80
4.3.2
Analyst judgments using all sources of information
81
4.3.3
Formal expert elicitation
82
4.3.4
Bayesian analysis
83
4.4
Uncertainty assessments of a vector X
91
4.4.1
Cost risk
91
4.4.2
Production risk
93
4.4.3
Reliability analysis
94
4.5
Discussion
97
4.5.1
Risk analysis and science
97
4.5.2
Probability and utility
98
4.5.3
Probability and knowledge
99
4.5.4
Probability models
99
4.5.5
Firm and vague probabilities
100
4.5.6
The need for seeing beyond probabilities
100
4.5.7
Interval (imprecise) probabilities
101
4.5.8
Example of interval (imprecise) probabilities in a risk analysis
setting
102
4.5.9
Possibility theory
103
4.5.10
Example of interval (imprecise) probabilities in a risk analysis
context using possibility theory
104
4.5.11
Final comments
106
Bibliographic notes
108
How to use risk analysis to support decision-making 111
5.1
What is a good decision?
112
5.1.1
Features of a decision-making model
113
5.1.2
Decision-support tools
114
5.1.3
Discussion
119
CONTENTS
vii
5.2
Some examples
122
5.2.1
Accident risk
122
5.2.2
Scrap in place or complete removal of plant
125
5.2.3
Production system
130
5.2.4
Reliability target
131
5.2.5
Health risk
133
5.2.6
Warranties
135
5.2.7
Offshore development project
136
5.2.8
Risk assessment: National sector
138
5.2.9
Multi-attribute utility example
140
5.3
Risk problem classification schemes
143
5.3.1
A scheme based on consequences and uncertainties
143
5.3.2
A scheme based on closeness to hazard and level of authority
147
Bibliographic notes
158
6
Summary and conclusions
161
Appendix A: Basic theory of probability and statistics
165
A.I Probability theory
165
A.
1.1
Types of probabilities
165
A.
1.2
Probability rules
168
A.
1.3
Random quantities (random variables)
172
A.
1.4
Some common discrete probability distributions (models)
176
A.
1.5
Some common continuous distributions (models)
178
A.
1.6
Some remarks on probability models and their parameters
182
A.
1.7
Random processes
183
A.2 Classical statistical inference
184
A.2.1 Nonparametric estimation
184
A.2.2 Estimation of distribution parameters
185
A.2.3 Testing hypotheses
187
A.2.4 Regression
188
A.3
В
ay esian inference
189
A.3.1 Statistical (Bayesian) decision analysis
191
Bibliographic notes
192
Appendix
В
:
Terminology
193
В
. 1
Risk management: Relationships between key terms
195
References
197
Index
207
|
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| discipline | Mathematik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 2. ed. |
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| indexdate | 2024-07-10T00:13:05Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781119966975 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2011044204 |
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| spelling | Aven, Terje 1956- Verfasser (DE-588)120986469 aut Foundations of risk analysis Terje Aven 2. ed. Chichester Wiley 2012 XVI, 211 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Risk assessment Statistical methods Entscheidung bei Risiko (DE-588)4225781-5 gnd rswk-swf Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd rswk-swf Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd rswk-swf Wissensmanagement (DE-588)4561842-2 gnd rswk-swf Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 s Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 s DE-604 Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 s Wissensmanagement (DE-588)4561842-2 s Entscheidung bei Risiko (DE-588)4225781-5 s b DE-604 Digitalisierung UB Bamberg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024730269&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Aven, Terje 1956- Foundations of risk analysis Risk assessment Statistical methods Entscheidung bei Risiko (DE-588)4225781-5 gnd Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Wissensmanagement (DE-588)4561842-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4225781-5 (DE-588)4121590-4 (DE-588)4137042-9 (DE-588)4113446-1 (DE-588)4561842-2 |
| title | Foundations of risk analysis |
| title_auth | Foundations of risk analysis |
| title_exact_search | Foundations of risk analysis |
| title_full | Foundations of risk analysis Terje Aven |
| title_fullStr | Foundations of risk analysis Terje Aven |
| title_full_unstemmed | Foundations of risk analysis Terje Aven |
| title_short | Foundations of risk analysis |
| title_sort | foundations of risk analysis |
| topic | Risk assessment Statistical methods Entscheidung bei Risiko (DE-588)4225781-5 gnd Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Wissensmanagement (DE-588)4561842-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Risk assessment Statistical methods Entscheidung bei Risiko Risikomanagement Risikoanalyse Entscheidungsfindung Wissensmanagement |
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