Verfügbarkeit: Looking ahead in world food and agriculture

Looking ahead in world food and agriculture: perspectives to 2050

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Format:	Buch
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Rome Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2011
Schlagworte:	Globale Analysis Prognose Landwirtschaft Lebensmittelversorgung Welternährung
Online-Zugang:	Inhaltsverzeichnis
Beschreibung:	XVIII, 539 S. graph. Darst., Kt.
ISBN:	9789251069035

Internformat

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Datensatz im Suchindex

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adam_text	Titel: Looking ahead in world food and agriculture Autor: Conforti, Piero Jahr: 2011 Contents Foreword iii About the authors xi Acknowledgements xiii Acronyms xv Introduction 1 Piero Conforti PART I THE GLOBAL AGRICULTURE OUTLOOK 1. World food and agriculture to 2030/2050 revisited. Highlights and views four years later 11 Nikos Alexandratos Interim report projections and reality checks 14 Biofuels: significance for the long-term outlook 29 Food consumption and nutrition in developing countries 37 Conclusions 44 Annex 1.1: Cereal production in developing countries 47 Annex 1.2: World agriculture: towards 2030/2050 - interim report: excerpt from Chapter 1- Overview 48 2. World agriculture in a dynamically changing environment: IFPRI s long-term outlook for food and agriculture 57 Siwa Msangi and Mark Rosegrant Drivers of change in food systems 59 Quantitative outlook to 2050 68 The role of biofuels 75 Implications for food security 85 Conclusions 88 3. How can climate change and the development of bioenergy alter the long-term outlook for food and agriculture? 95 Günther Fischer Methodology and data 96 Baseline assessment 98 Climate change impacts on crop suitability and production potential 105 Impacts of climate change on world food system indicators 112 Impacts of biofuel expansion on world food system indicators 116 Impacts of first-generation biofuel expansion on food system indicators 125 Second-generation biofuels 137 Combined impacts of climate change and expansion of biofuel production on world food system indicators 142 Conclusions 146 Annex 3.1: The modelling framework 151 Annex 3.2: Aggregation of world food system components to world regions 154 PART II GROWTH, POVERTY AND MACROECONOMIC PROSPECTS 4. Poverty, growth and inequality over the next 50 years 159 Evan Hillebrand Poverty measurement: 160 Explaining changes in poverty, 1981 to 2005 164 Forecasting economic growth 169 Forecasting poverty and inequality 171 The market first scenario 173 How might distribution shifts affect future poverty headcounts? 176 The trend growth scenario 182 Conclusions 186 5. Macroeconomic environment and commodity markets: a longer-term outlook 191 Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, Andrew Burns and John Baffes The nature of the recent commodity boom 192 The energy/non-energy price link 199 The macroeconomic environment 203 Climate change 209 Poverty implications 214 Conclusions 224 Annex 5.1: The model used for climate change simulations 228 PART III LAND, WATER AND CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS 6. The resources outlook: by how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? 233 Jelle Bruinsma How much more needs to be produced? 235 What are the sources of growth in crop production? 238 By how much does the arable land area need to increase? 242 How much land is there with crop production potential? 242 How much more water will be required in irrigation? 251 By how much do crop yields need to rise? 261 Summary and conclusions 271 Annex 6.1: Countries included in the analysis 276 Annex 6.2: Crops included in the analysis 278 7. Investment in developing countries food and agriculture: assessing agricultural capital stocks and their impact on productivity 279 Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, Gustavo Anriquez, Hartwig de Haen and Oleg Nivyevskyi Approaches to measuring investment and agricultural capital stock 281 Results: development of the agricultural capital stock since 1975 287 Agricultural capital stock and productivity 303 Conclusions 313 8. Capital requirements for agriculture in developing countries to 2050 317 Josef Schmidhuber, Jelle Bruinsma and Gerold Boedeker Methodology and measurement 318 The results 323 Performance indicators for agricultural production, capital stocks, labour and land 327 Summary and conclusions 338 Annex 8.1: Countries included in the analysis 342 vn Annex 8.2: Cumulative investment requirements for 2005/2007 to 2050, by region (billion 2009 USD) 343 PART IV RAISING PRODUCTIVITY: RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY 9. Setting meaningful investment targets in agricultural research and development: challenges, opportunities and fiscal realities 347 Nienke Beintema and Howard Elliott Trends in agricultural R D investments 348 Three definitions of underinvestment in agricultural R D 357 Analysing the agricultural research intensity ratio 363 Challenges and essential investments 376 Concluding remarks 381 10. Can technology deliver on the yield challenge to 2050? 389 Tony R. Fischer, Derek Byerlee and Gregory Owen Edmeades Defining key concepts 392 Setting the scene: recent trends and the challenge to 2050 397 Sources of yield gains in the breadbaskets 405 Closing existing yield gaps 416 Increasing yield potential 422 Prices, efficiency, productivity and R D investment 437 Conclusions 447 CONCLUSIONS 11. Critical evaluation of selected projections 465 Nikos Alexandratos Prices and quantities in the baseline scenarios 466 Climate change impact on agriculture 472 I mpact of biofuels 484 Demography, growth, inequality and poverty 494 Sub-Saharan africa 500 vin 12. Challenges and policies for the world agricultural and food economy in the 2050 perspective 509 Piero Conforti and Alexander Sarris Challenges and opportunities 510 Can data and analyses be improved? 516 Policy directions 520 Areas for future policy and analytical focus 536
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spelling	Looking ahead in world food and agriculture perspectives to 2050 Ed. by Piero Conforti Rome Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2011 XVIII, 539 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Globale Analysis (DE-588)4021285-3 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Landwirtschaft (DE-588)4034402-2 gnd rswk-swf Lebensmittelversorgung (DE-588)4034917-2 gnd rswk-swf Welternährung (DE-588)4117626-1 gnd rswk-swf Welternährung (DE-588)4117626-1 s Lebensmittelversorgung (DE-588)4034917-2 s Landwirtschaft (DE-588)4034402-2 s Globale Analysis (DE-588)4021285-3 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s b DE-604 Conforti, Piero Sonstige oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024680175&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis
spellingShingle	Looking ahead in world food and agriculture perspectives to 2050 Globale Analysis (DE-588)4021285-3 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Landwirtschaft (DE-588)4034402-2 gnd Lebensmittelversorgung (DE-588)4034917-2 gnd Welternährung (DE-588)4117626-1 gnd
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title	Looking ahead in world food and agriculture perspectives to 2050
title_auth	Looking ahead in world food and agriculture perspectives to 2050
title_exact_search	Looking ahead in world food and agriculture perspectives to 2050
title_full	Looking ahead in world food and agriculture perspectives to 2050 Ed. by Piero Conforti
title_fullStr	Looking ahead in world food and agriculture perspectives to 2050 Ed. by Piero Conforti
title_full_unstemmed	Looking ahead in world food and agriculture perspectives to 2050 Ed. by Piero Conforti
title_short	Looking ahead in world food and agriculture
title_sort	looking ahead in world food and agriculture perspectives to 2050
title_sub	perspectives to 2050
topic	Globale Analysis (DE-588)4021285-3 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Landwirtschaft (DE-588)4034402-2 gnd Lebensmittelversorgung (DE-588)4034917-2 gnd Welternährung (DE-588)4117626-1 gnd
topic_facet	Globale Analysis Prognose Landwirtschaft Lebensmittelversorgung Welternährung
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