Economic forecasting and policy:
Gespeichert in:
| Vorheriger Titel: | Carnot, Nicolas Economic forecasting |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Basingstoke [u.a.]
Palgrave Macmillan
2011
|
| Ausgabe: | 2. ed. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | references and index |
| Beschreibung: | XX, 495 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780230243217 9780230243224 0230243215 0230243223 |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Titel: Economic forecasting and policy
Autor: Carnot, Nicolas
Jahr: 2011
Contents
List ofFigures viii
List of Tables x
List ofBoxes xi
Foreword by Jean-Philippe Cotis xiii
Acknowledgements xv
List of Abbreviations xvi
Introduction 1
What is economic forecasting? 2
The book s aims 2
Roadmap 3
1 Overview 5
1.1 What to forecast? 7
1.2 Why forecast? 12
1.3 How to forecast? 16
1.4 Frequently asked questions 21
2 Business Cycle Analysis 24
2.1 Monitoring the ups and downs 25
2.2 Collecting economic information 26
2.3 Business and consumer surveys 29
2.4 Making sense of the data 38
2.5 Bridge modeis 54
2.6 Final health warning 59
Appendix 2.1 Some useful concepts and tools 61
3 Real Sector Building Blocks 66
3.1 Business investment 70
3.2 Household spending 80
3.3 Imports and exports 88
3.4 Employment 93
3.5 Prices and wages 95
Appendix 3.1 Sectoral forecasting 107
Appendix 3.2 Commodity prices 112
Appendix 3.3 Semi-structural estimation ofthe NAIRU 117
vi Contents
4 Financial Sector Dynamics 119
4.1 Dealing with volatility 121
4.2 Short-term interest rates 125
4.3 Long-term interest rates 145
4.4 Bond prices and yield spreads 151
4.5 Stock prices 153
4.6 Real estate prices 155
4.7 Exchange rates 159
Appendix 4.1 Integrating the financial stability perspective - lessons
from the 2007 financial crisis 170
Appendix 4.2 Technical analysis 182
Appendix 4.3 Country risk analysis 184
5 Public Finances 191
5.1 The macroeconomic view 193
5.2 The detailed approach 193
5.3 Long-run fiscal trends 203
5.4 Fiscal policy analysis 205
5.5 Forecasting Performance 215
Appendix 5.1 Fiscal implications of financial sector rescues 219
Appendix 5.2 The fiscal response to the 2007 financial crisis 221
6 Medium- and Long-Run Projections 223
6.1 The medium run 225
6.2 The long run 246
7 Risks and Accuracy 265
7.1 Conceptual issues 267
7.2 Analysing errors 271
7.3 Forecasters track record 274
7.4 What causes errors? 281
7.5 Can accuracy be improved? 285
7.6 Accuracy is not enough - assessing the risks
around forecasts 288
Appendix 7.1 Measuring accuracy in practice 296
Appendix 7.2 Can forecasters predict severe crises?
Recent lessons 302
8 Policy Making and Forecasts 309
8.1 Economic forecasts virtues and limitations 311
8.2 Forecasts and macroeconomic policy 316
8.3 Private sector uses 324
8.4 Explaining the technicalities 326
Contents vii
8.5 Transparency 331
8.6 Science or politics? 334
Appendix 8.1 A world tour ofthe forecasting institutions 339
Epilogue 354
Annex I The data 357
ALI The national accounts framework 359
AI.2 Quarterly national accounting 374
AI.3 Technical hurdles 377
AI.4 Open questions and limitations 388
Annex II Time series methods 396
All. 1 Time series methods used for macroeconomic forecasts 398
AII.2 Volatility modelling 422
Annex III Macroeconomic modeis 435
AIII.l General features 436
AIII.2 Macroeconomic logic 437
AIII.3 Estimation and Simulation properties 443
AIII.4 Forecasting with a model 448
AIII.5 Overall assessment 456
Bibliography 463
Index 484
|
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| author | Carnot, Nicolas 1973- Koen, Vincent 1960- Tissot, Bruno 1966- |
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 2. ed. |
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| spelling | Carnot, Nicolas 1973- Verfasser (DE-588)132061848 aut Economic forecasting and policy Nicolas Carnot ; Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot 2. ed. Basingstoke [u.a.] Palgrave Macmillan 2011 XX, 495 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier references and index Wirtschaft Economic forecasting BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Macroeconomics bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Money & Monetary Policy bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Theory bisacsh Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-188 Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 s Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 s Koen, Vincent 1960- Verfasser (DE-588)132061910 aut Tissot, Bruno 1966- Verfasser (DE-588)132061953 aut Früher u.d.T. Carnot, Nicolas Economic forecasting (DE-604)BV021236706 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024392645&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Carnot, Nicolas 1973- Koen, Vincent 1960- Tissot, Bruno 1966- Economic forecasting and policy Wirtschaft Economic forecasting BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Macroeconomics bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Money & Monetary Policy bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Theory bisacsh Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4066399-1 (DE-588)4358095-6 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4066438-7 |
| title | Economic forecasting and policy |
| title_auth | Economic forecasting and policy |
| title_exact_search | Economic forecasting and policy |
| title_full | Economic forecasting and policy Nicolas Carnot ; Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot |
| title_fullStr | Economic forecasting and policy Nicolas Carnot ; Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economic forecasting and policy Nicolas Carnot ; Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot |
| title_old | Carnot, Nicolas Economic forecasting |
| title_short | Economic forecasting and policy |
| title_sort | economic forecasting and policy |
| topic | Wirtschaft Economic forecasting BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Macroeconomics bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Money & Monetary Policy bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Theory bisacsh Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaft Economic forecasting BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Macroeconomics BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Money & Monetary Policy BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Theory Prognoseverfahren Prognose Wirtschaftsentwicklung |
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