Demografska budućnost Srbije: imigracija kao izvesnost?
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Buch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Beograd
Službeni Glasnik
2010
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Biblioteka Nauka
Edicija Studije ; 14 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Abstract |
| Beschreibung: | Zsfassung in engl. Sprache |
| Beschreibung: | 202 S. graph. Darst. 24 cm |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Demografska budućnost Srbije |b imigracija kao izvesnost? |c Vladimir Nikitović |
| 264 | 1 | |a Beograd |b Službeni Glasnik |c 2010 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text |
SADRŽAJ
1.
Uvod i pregled sadržaja
.9
1.1.
Uvod
.9
1.2.
Pregled sadržaja
.14
DEO I
Teorijska osnova projektovanja stanovništva
2.
Potreba za projekcijama stanovništva
.19
3.
Projekciona metodologija
.23
3.1.
Kohortno-komponentni
metod
.23
3.1.1.
Istorijat
.23
3.1.2.
Detalji metoda
.24
3.1.3.
Matematički izraz
.26
3.2.
Alternativni metodi
.27
4.
Izražavanje neizvesnosti
.31
4.1.
Deterministički pristup
.31
4.2.
Probabilistički pristup
.34
5.
Zastoje probabilistički pristup neophodan?
.39
6.
Osnovne odlike i metodi probabilističkog pristupa
.43
6.1.
Karakteristike pristupa
.44
6.1.1.
Korelacija između komponenti
.45
6.1.2.
Korelacija između starosnih doba
.45
6.1.3.
Korelacija između polova
.46
6.1.4.
Autokorelacija
.47
6.1.5.
Međuregionalna korelacija
.48
6.2.
Metodi izražavanja neizvesnosti
.49
6.2.1.
Ekstrapolacija empirijskih grešaka
.49
6.2.2.
Ekstrapolacija vremenskih serija
.51
6.2.3.
Ekspertsko mišljenje
.51
6.3.
Monte Carlo simulacije
.54
6.4.
Praktična pitanja primene
.55
6.4.1. Vektorski
modeli
.55
6.4.2.
Promenljivost varijanse
.56
6.4.3.
„Naivne" prognoze
.58
6 Vladimir
Nikitović
-
Demografska budućnost Srbije: Imigracija kao izvesnost?
DEO
II
Model stohastičke prognoze stanovništva Srbije
7.
Metodologija
.63
7.1.
Definisanje početne populacije
.63
7.2.
Definisanje hipoteza
.65
7.3.
Izgradnja stohastičkog modela
.67
8.
Fertilitet
.69
8.1.
Pretpostavke
о
stopi ukupnog fertiliteta
.69
8.2.
Empirijska greška u zvaničnim projekcijama
.72
8.2.1.
Empirijska i stohastička greška
.75
8.3.
Komparacija hipoteza
-
deterministički i stohastički pristup
.77
9.
Mortalitet
.81
9.1.
Pretpostavke
о
očekivanom trajanju života živorođenih
.81
9.1.1.
Izbor ARIMA modela
.83
9.1.2.
Starosni profil
.87
9.2.
Empirijska greška u zvaničnim projekcijama
.88
9.2.1.
Empirijska i stohastička greška
.89
10.
Spoljna migracija
.93
10.1.
Problemi prognoziranja spoljne migracije
.93
10.2.
Teorijski okvir migracione hipoteze
.95
10.3.
Pretpostavke
o neto
migracionom saldu
.98
10.3.1.
Centralna tendencija
.98
10.3.2.
Varijabilitet
.100
10.3.3.
Starosni profil
.103
DEO III
Demografska budućnost Srbije
11.
Rezultati stohastičke projekcije,
2009-2050.109
11.1.
Ukupno stanovništvo
.109
11.2.
Starosna struktura
.111
11.3.
Proces populacionog starenja
.117
12.
Stohastička naspram zvanične prognoze
.127
12.1.
Ukupno stanovništvo
.127
12.2.
Koeficijenti zavisnosti
.131
13.
Stohastički scenariji: Imigracija kao izvesnost?
.135
13.1.
Metodološki okvir
.135
13.1.1.
Uslovni faktori
.136
Sadržaj
7
13.2.
Scenariji populacione veličine
.138
13.2.1.
Zavisno od fertiliteta i mortaliteta
.138
13.2.2.
Zavisno od fertiliteta i migracija
.140
13.3.
Scenariji koeficijenta zavisnosti starih
.144
13.3.1.
Zavisno od fertiliteta i mortaliteta
.144
13.3.2.
Zavisno od fertiliteta i migracija
.146
13.4.
Stohastički scenariji naspram varijanti zvanične projekcije
.148
13.4.1.
Populaciona veličina
.149
13.4.2.
Koeficijent zavisnosti starih
.151
14.
Komparacija sa drugim državama
.153
15.
Zaključna razmatranja
.159
15.1.
Glavni nalazi
.159
15.2.
Pretpostavke stohastičkog modela
.160
15.3.
Rezultati
.162
Literatura i izvori
.169
Resume
.175
Prilog
.185
Indeks pojmova
.201
Resumé
DEMOGRAPHIC
FUTURE
OF SERBIA: IMMIGRATION AS A CERTAINTY?
Population projections are necessary in process of making new strate¬
gies and regulations in numerous fields that arrange social and economic
relations in a country or region. Concretely, they are widely used for plan¬
ning in big government systems such as the school, pension and health
care systems. Similarly to national offices in other countries, the Statistical
Office
of the Republic of Serbia
(SORS)
publishes official population projec¬
tions by sex and age on the country level. As from
1970,
regular sets, with
a projection period of three decades, have been published. Unfortunately,
the recurrence of these projections is, on average, only every
10
years, since
the projection basis is connected to the population census which in Serbia
is carried out at the beginning of each decade.
Without taking the excessively too long of a period between two official
projections into consideration, for now, the key problem represents the way
in which the official results address the uncertainty of future trends of demo¬
graphic indicators. This is the very reason for the motif of elaborating the first
universal probabilistic population projection of Serbia, presented in this mo¬
nograph. Namely, long-term demographic projections are subject to a consi¬
derable degree of uncertainty. So, one of the essential questions for all authors
of the projection reads: How does one correctly report information on the un¬
certainty to users of the population forecast results, especially those who crea¬
te regulations and laws so that it is understandable and they could use them to
the maximum? The following paragraphs sum up the most important answers
to this question, which arose from the work on this monograph.
•
The presented probabilistic projection differs from the traditional ones
up to now, issued by official government statistical agencies, by the
way they address the uncertainty attached to forecasted demographic
indicators. Namely, the uncertainty of Serbia's demographic future is
presented through a range of possible results and the probability that
this range will be realized. It is opposed to the official projection, whe¬
re three descrete straight-line courses, as the outcome of the hypothe¬
sis on average value trends, represent the only answers to all possible
questions, giving only a qualitative estimation of the realization of the
middle variant as the most probable demographic future.
176 Vladimir
Nikitović
-
Demografska budućnost Srbije: Imigracija kao izvesnost?
•
All three main methods of probabilistic approach have been tested
on the population of Serbia for feasibility of application. It has been
shown that a combination of these methods could successfully pro¬
duce predictive distributions of indicators of population development
components. Nevertheless, the main accent was on the time series
analysis, while the method of extrapolation of empirical errors served
as an auxiliary in the valorization of previously estimated prediction
intervals. In the case of migrations, the basic one was the method of
expert opinion due to lack of adequate input data.
•
Comparison of stochastic results with current official results highlig¬
hted inconsistences of the latter in reporting different kind of indica¬
tors. This was especially the case when a demographic process wit¬
hout precedent in contemporary human history is in question
-
the
process of population ageing. Namely, uncertainty about the degree
of demographic pressure of old-age population on the working age
population (old-age dependency ratio) is of essential significance for
the country population-economic system on long run, which official
projections traditionally neglect.
•
Having in mind that probabilistic methodology is in the phase of in¬
tensive development, it was especially important to evaluate the re¬
sults of stochastic projections of Serbia's population through results
of projections of the same type for other countries. In that way, the
influence of various factors for forecasting future variability has been
estimated, where, except for the differences in methodological proce¬
dures, the significance of input data quality, population size of country
and level of international migration variability have been pointed out.
•The key objection to the probabilistic interpretation of results refers to
the disregarding of previous habits of users to get projection results
presented in a traditional variant namely scenario manner. However,
by imposing conditions on the ranked projection simulations, on the
example of Serbia, it was shown that users could be given answers to
questions of „what if" type as well the information on how much the
realization of these answers is possible.
•
Finally, stochastic forecast in this monograph is also the first example of
inter-regional consistent projections in the country, since it is based on
the model that took into account the existing level of correlations bet¬
ween demographic components in two macro-regions of Serbia
(Cen¬
ín™*
Λ
V°jvodina)·ln th* way, the significance of further deve-
Srľt
StC!
tÍC
methodol°9y
¡s
emphasized with the goal of its
uLf
ľn
?
'к
terrÍtOrÍal
levels as well<which w°uld specially be
for thilt
Г3''"?
Spautial P'3"5'
^tunate!*
the biggest problem
ona
enonnh
Г"
SUCh<an idea in this Phase is the lack of reliable and
long enough t.me series for small territories such as regions.
Résumé
177
It should be stressed that there is no guarantee that the statistical mo¬
del used for calculating prediction intervals in this monograph is „realistic"
or „correct" one. Unfortunately, different statistical models can produce wi¬
dely differing prediction intervals (Lee,
1998;
Keilman
et al,
2001).
Due to
this reason, the greatest confidence can be stated in results for the next
15,
or
20
years the most, at least when total fertility rate (TFR) is in question, life
expectancy at birth
(LE)
and age structure, because the forecasts of these
indicators match up quite well with independently observed errors in histo¬
rical projections. Unfortunately, it was not possible to cover the whole pro¬
jection period with empiric errors due to insufficient long series. In any case,
long term results must be interpreted with caution.
ASSUMPTIONS OF STOCHASTIC MODEL
Taking into consideration that one of the basic goals of this monograph
was comparison of stochastic results with official projection results, it was ne¬
cessary to achieve expected (most probable) values of forecasted indicators to
be similar to values of the most probable variant so the difference in the met¬
hod of expressing the projection variability between the two approaches wo¬
uld be emphasized. In that sense, prediction intervals for natural change com¬
ponents are based, actually, on extrapolation of historical variability. In other
words, structural changes were not expected in the driving force of the two
components, in the sense that there exists a high percentage of probability
that, for example, the fertility level increases to the one from the baby-boom
period, or to the one from the first half of last century. This does not mean sur¬
prises are out of the question, so a certain number of simulated trends really
contain unexpected events, as opposed to deterministic official projections.
For example, to achieve the level of TFR necessary for long term generation
replacement, from today's perspective may seem like a baby-boom scenario,
but the upper limit of
95%
prediction interval is very close to the level during
the last decade of the projection period. This practically means that after just
15
years of the projection until its end, a few paths will also exist with TFR that
will be even above this magical level, which Serbia has not experienced in
more than
halfa
century. Nevertheless, like in many other stochastic projec¬
tions, which consider immanent fact that fertility tends to change smoothly
and slowly, the expected TFR value remains at present level in
40
years time,
namely at
1.4
children per woman (random walk model). This is because, ac¬
cording to most contemporary leading demographers, there are no convin¬
cing reasons there could be any significant long term changes in the fertility
'evel not even out of a statistical model based only on demographic variables.
The situation is similar in view of mortality forecast. A continuation of a
slow increase of life expectancy at birth ¡s predicted, which is in conformity
178 Vladimir
Nikitović
-
Demografska budućnost Srbije: Imigracija kao ¡zvesnost?
with the increase in observed survival rates from the last century. However,
stochastic simulations again leave a possibility that, for example, life expec¬
tancy of women in Central Serbia, which increased the most in the last half
century, and which is expected to increase over
6
years till
2050,
may rema¬
in at the present level of
76.7
years, although with chances under
1%
during
the last two projection decades. In relation to the official projection, this is a
considerable difference having in mind that it assumed no variability as a re¬
flection of future uncertainty, but exclusively a further increase of life expec¬
tancy. It should be added that the assumption on the continual mild increa¬
se in life expectancy at birth, during the following decades, primarily imply
that it will be realized on the account of having a larger number of people
who are entering the old age population and not on the basis on significant
increase of life expectancy at old-ages.
One of the main traits of the methodology of stochastic forecast of Ser¬
bia's population presents the assumption on international migration. Due to
a lack of adequate historical data, the forecast from the actual official projec¬
tion (the only variant) was taken for the expected future trend which antici¬
pates a gradual change in the pattern of international migration of Serbia,
from a traditional emigrant into a typical immigrant. Such an assumption
on transformation is based on the expectancy of a relatively soon change
in the present position of the country in the region, caused primarily by the
expected entrance in the European Union. What the stochastic projection
has added in relation to the official one refers to the forecasted uncertainty
which is the outcome of expert opinion based on experience from countries
with similar problems in the quality of migration data, namely similar po¬
litical and economic position. However, the difference point between the
international migration and the natural change components in the level of
forecasted variability is the realistic possibility of structural changes in the
direction and intensity of migration trends. Thus, the stochastic forecast has
left a significant possibility that the migration balance could also be nega¬
tive, but multiply positive as well in relation to the central trend. Why has
such a decision been brought?
Concretely because fertility and mortality forecasts do not give much
chance to significant changes on the basis of statistical models nor on the
basis of experts'opinions. In such conditions, due to irrepressible strengthe¬
ning of the demographic ageing process, it is quite certain that the popu¬
lation of Serbia will need a significant inflow of migrant population in the
near future to reduce the exceptionally strong pressure of the old-age po¬
pulation on the working age contingent, caused by retiring the baby-bo¬
om generations. By forming the assumption which gives equal chances to
multiple larger inflows of migrants than expected (optimistic), as well as the
possibility that Serbia remains a permanently emigrational country during
Résumé
179
the whole first half of the 21st century, the relative significance of the mi¬
gration component for the demographic future of the country has been re¬
cognized. In other words, if the fertility capacity is already limited in view of
stopping further decrease of population size of Serbia, the goal was to de¬
termine what the migration capacity was like as regards the same question.
RESULTS
The stochastic forecast predicts a continuation of the decreasing ten¬
dency of Serbia's population size, registered as far back as
1991,
as the most
probable demographic future, which would be reflected in the decrease of
current population
(7.5
million) by
0.7
million inhabitants by
2030 (6.8
mil¬
lion) namely by
halfa
million more by
2050 (6.3
million). At the same time,
the probability that in the middle of this century Serbia will have more inha¬
bitants than today is only
9%,
but it should be taken into consideration that
the projection calculations consider the entrance of Serbia in the European
Union in the period
2012-2017,
namely they assume a positive migration
balance as the most probable possibility during a larger part of the projecti¬
on horizon. In such conditions as well, chances are that the population size
of Serbia in
2050
will be the same as it was in
1950.
However, through the prism of stochastic simulations, the range betwe¬
en the high and low variant of the official projection regarding the popu¬
lation size of Serbia in
2032
indicates that its coverage probability is only
41%.
On the other hand, the range between the extreme fertility variants,
which directly determine the the high-low range of population size, taking
into consideration the lack of alternative mortality and migration trends,
has a coverage probability of
84%
in the same year, based on valorization by
stochastic forecast. This finding confirms the internal inconsistency of deter¬
ministic approach in dealing with uncertainty. In that sense, by varying the
high-low variant range from year to year, within the stochastic probability
distribution, the standpoint that traditional variant approach in official pro¬
jections cannot be statistically interpreted is confirmed (Lee,
1998, de Beer
and Alders,
1999;
Alho
and Spencer,
2005).
The comparison of stochastic and
SORS
official projections showed that
it is very probable that traditional tendencies towards overestimating real
values of population size by the official projections will continue, by which
the results of the empiric error analysis based on three past official projec¬
tion sets have been confirmed. It is especially indicative that the middle
triant
of the current
SORS
projection shows higher level in relation to the
stochastic distribution median, whereby the range between the extreme
variants of the official projection is also positioned somewhat "closer" to the
uPPer bound rather than the lower bound of the
67%
prediction interval.
180 Vladimir
Nikitović
-
Demografska budućnost Srbije: Imigracija kao izvesnost?
It points out to the probable continuation of the tradition that low and con¬
stant variants of official projections are "closer" to actual value of population
size rather than the medium and high
(Никитовић,
2004).
This expectancy
is supported by the
excentric
positioning of the middle fertiliy variant in the
SORS
projection range which expresses the author's wish for fertility reco¬
very rather than the realistic assumption.
The most important result of population projections, from the aspect of
various planning requirements, represents the age structure forecast. Furt¬
her development of demographic ageing process is certain. The causes of
this phenomenon are not just in the assumed maintenance of TFR insuffici¬
ent for long term generation replacement and an increase of life expectancy
but in the inherited age structure, namely in the sudden drops and rises of
demographic indicators in the past.
The continuation of the decrease of Serbia's population size, which
started in early
1990s,
will be followed by the further demographic ageing
during the whole projection period. This is manifested by the permanent
increase of the average age which, from the present
41.1 (2008)
will reach
expected
47.0
years at the end of the projection period, whereby the chan¬
ces are just in theory that the average population age in
2050
will be lower
than today, even if Serbia becomes a typical immigration country. In other
words, not even an inflow of migrants in their best reproductive-productive
age practically can stop the process of demographic ageing.
Considerably smaller generations born from the middle of the
1
980s un¬
til the middle of the 2000s decade, in comparison with cohorts born in the
period
1971-1984,
not even under the assumption of fertility recovery, can¬
not prevent the expected drastic decrease of the number of young people
in the next decades. At the same time, when huge baby-boom generations
start to move to old age, a continuous decrease of the working age popula¬
tion is pretty certain, since it cannot be prevented even by the expected im¬
migration after
2020
in over
90%
of the cases. On the other hand, it is quite
certain that the number of people
65
and over will be higher, in the middle
of the century, than the present number of young people, namely that these
two groups will exchange their present positions in the population structure
of the country. More exactly, after an initial short-term fall of the number of
old-age people, due to the entrance of the so-called partial generation (born
1941-45)
into this contingent, two larger increases of the number are expec¬
ted during the projection period. The first and highest jump will reach culmi¬
nation in the 2020s, as a consequence of the ageing of cohorts born
1945-
1956,
which are almost twice as numerous as the generations born during
the Second World War. The second jump is expected during the last decade
of the projection, with
90%
certainty, and is determined by the ageing of the
"baby-boom echo" cohorts (descendants of baby-boom generations).
Résumé
181
An
analysis of the dependency ratios which show the burdening level
on the working age contingent by two economically dependent age groups,
the young and the old, confirmed, as expected, that the main pressure in the
following decades will come from the increasing number of the old-age po¬
pulation as opposed to the actual situation. However, additional information
provided by the stochastic forecast is that, for example, there are not even
theoretical chances that the expected pressure of the old-aged
(65
and over)
on the potential workers
(20-64)
in
2050
will be at present level
(28/100)
aga¬
in. On the contrary, the greatest chances are that this relation will be
46/100.
The ageing index shows that in the middle of the century, most probably,
more than
3
old-age persons
(65
and over) will come on every
2
persons
younger than
20.
Besides, more than
1
old-age person will come on every
2
persons aged
20-64
years according to the
30%
of all simulations.
Taking into consideration that the official projection of
SORS
consi¬
dered only variants of fertility in expressing uncertainty of Serbia's demo¬
graphic future, the old-age dependency ratio (OADR) forecast, as important
input in projections of pension funds, has almost been deprived of varia¬
bility. Namely, the assumption on the perfect serial correlation in the ferti¬
lity hypothesis, together with one hundred percent certainty on the future
number of those born before the beginning of the projection, resulted in a
relative range between the two extreme variants (in relation to the middle)
in
2032
of only
2%.
At the same time, the relative width of prediction inter¬
val in stochastic projection (compared to the median forecast) amounts to
25%
with odds being
4:1
that actual OADR will lay inside the range, that is,
39%
with odds being
19:1.
Finally, conditional stochastic forecasts enabled answers to "what if" qu¬
estions on the influence of each component on the demographic future of
Serbia showing that the deterministic concept has an alternative in view of
the scenario interpretations of possible outcome as well. For example, in con¬
ditions of medium increase of life expectancy, all simulations with the fertility
level higher than the present level (high TFR) would most probably provide a
Population higher by almost half of a million compared to a population indu¬
ced by equal or lower fertility from the present one in Mediterranean coun¬
tries (low TFR). However, stochastic scenarios showed as well that, in condi¬
tions of medium level fertility, the difference between two opposite futures,
°ne projected by slower increase of life expectancy (low
LE)
and one by faster
(high
LE),
most probably would not be considerably smaller than the differen¬
ce between high and low fertility scenarios
-
only
0.1
million people.
As regards quantifying uncertainty, including full variability of migrati¬
on balance, the scenario of low fertility predicts that the chances are
9:1
that
Serbia will lose at least
0.2
million inhabitants by
2050,
even with the ma¬
ximum increase of life expectancy. In case of considerable life expectancy
182 Vladimir
Nikitović
-
Demografska budućnost Srbije: Imigracija kao izvesnost?
increase, "medium fertility" (TFR levels similar to present, plus/minus
0.1),
gives about
10%
chance that Serbia's population in
2050
will be at present
level. Unfortunately, according to the high fertility scenario as well, it is most
certain to expect a decrease of the present population by almost a million
in the middle of the century. However, a marked increase in life expectancy
would alleviate this deficit, but only by
0.25
million. Besides, this most opti¬
mistic scenario, irrespective of migration conditions, gives only
20%
chance
of increasing Serbia's population by
2050
compared to the present size.
Having in mind that the probabilistic projection assumes the possibility
of changing the mostly emigrational pattern of Serbia up to now into a typi¬
cally ¡mmigrational, and the option of strengthening the existing push factors
as well, it is especially important to analyze the interaction of migration and
fertility variants, in conditions of full mortality variability. Especially because
the capacity of mortality to influence the uncertainty of the country's demo¬
graphic future is of smaller scope than the migration and fertility potential.
In this context, the difference in the population size between emigrational
and exceptionally ¡mmigrational scenario, under the assumption of medium
fertility, would amount to somewhat more than
1.5
million inhabitants. In ot¬
her words, the variability of international migration in comparison with the
uncertain future of natural components is the greatest source of uncertainty
regarding Serbia's population size in the next several decades.
Finally, the most unfavorable scenario (low fertility rate and emigrati¬
onal future) predicts most probably a decrease of the present
7.47
million
inhabitants by more than
2
million, without even theoretical chances of ma¬
intaining the number. On the contrary, the most favorable scenario (high
fertility level and exceptionally immigrational future) is the only one which
does not predict a significant drop of the present number of inhabitants be¬
cause its most probable forecast amounts to
7.40
million in
2050.
Actually,
only according to this scenario there are respectable chances that the pre¬
sent number of inhabitants of Serbia will increase by
2050,
the probability
being as much as
45%
that it may happen. The conclusion is clear: in order
to maintain or possibly increase the number of inhabitants in Serbia by the
middle of this century, an increase in total fertility level is necessary, but not
a sufficient condition. The significance of the potential immigration impul¬
se in comparison with the expected fertility capacity from the aspect of the
present age structure in Serbia, can be seen in the difference of as many as
one million inhabitants in total population, in the most probable case, bet¬
ween the markedly migrational surplus and low fertility scenario and the
emigrational future and high fertility scenario.
Conditional stochastic forecasts of old-age dependency ratio indicated
that, as opposed to conditional total population forecasts, the influence of
mortality is even four times the influence of fertility on the ratio forecast.
Resumé
183
Apart from that, not one scenario, regardless conditions it was created upon,
practically leaves a possibility for the ratio level in
2050
to return to the pre¬
sent level. Actually, it could almost certainly be claimed that not even a
combination of fertility increase and slower life expectancy in conditions of
significant migration surplus (the youngest age structure) in the following
decades could reduce the increase of the old aged population pressure on
the working age contingent.
However, as long as it is not realistic to expect the OADR increase to be
stopped, then attention should be drawn to the fact that transformation of
Serbia into typical immigration country considerably decreases uncertainty
attached to forecast of this indicator. In that case, permanent inflow of wor¬
king age population, whose variability under the influence of mortality is
considerably lower compared to old age contingent, alleviate the main so¬
urce of variability connected with the old age population (increase of un¬
certainty in old ages due to mortality). Such information could be very use¬
ful to reformers of the country's pension system because they could clearly
see that an inflow of working age population from other countries, during
the next few decades, would not only slow down the increase of expected
OADR value, but also contribute to its more accurate forecast in conditions
of the same risk for the system to endure as in the emigration scenarios.
The comparison of stochastic scenarios with variants of the official
SORS
projection shows that the realization of the middle, most probable variant is
possible only with a significant increase of the present fertility level. Also,
the actual population size of the country in
2032
could most probably be
between the low and middle variant, as opposed to the author's assumpti¬
ons, but similar to the results of error analysis in official projections from the
previous
30
years. Apart from that, the realization of all official projection
variants from the standpoint of stochastic simulations, even a low variant
which assume an even lower fertility level than present, is exclusively con¬
nected to the increase of positive migration balances of Serbia in the next
quarter of a century. Furthermore, in order to experience a demographic fu¬
ture according to the middle (most probable) or high variant, the official fo¬
recast of Serbia's migrational balance has to be on a higher level than it was
Predicted in the following period, assuming a greater inflow of immigrants.
One of the greatest deficiencies of the current methodology of official
Projections is reflected in the practical lack of variability in forecasted OADR.
Namely, the valorization of this important indicator, through stochastic sce¬
narios, proved that the range between high and low variant for the total po¬
pulation size reflects only an illusory variability which cannot be observed
'η
forecasts of relative indicators. The inconsistency of the official methodo-
'°gy ¡s practically confirmed by this in view of expressing uncertainty for dif¬
ferent types of indicators, that is, the general impossibility of an adequate
statistical interpretation of traditional deterministic projections.
184 Vladimir
Nikitovii
-
Demografska budućnost Srbije: Imigracija kao izvesnost?
The diversity of methods used in the published stochastic projections
so far does not reflect essential differences in obtained results. On the con¬
trary, a general similarity may be noticed in stating the uncertainty with the
passing of projected period. In that context, the stochastic projection of Ser¬
bia's population does not present an exception. The uncertainty model, va¬
lid for total population of the country, is also valid for age groups and their
relations among each other, which proves the consistency in view of expres¬
sing uncertainty for various types of demographic indicators, contrary to
the deterministic approach.
The differences are noticeable, which, apart from different methodo¬
logy, reflect the different views of the authors on the future trends of main
demographic components in the sense how much the future will look like
the past. Countries with longer and better quality time series are characte¬
rized, generally, with narrower prediction intervals. Apart from this factor,
an increase in the width of prediction intervals is also influenced by: insta¬
bility of migration component and smaller population size of country. Due
to this reason, the greatest uncertainty at the end of the projection period
in view of the population size is for countries located in Southern Europe,
which have poor statistics of international migration and at the same time
are characterized by high amounts of legal and illegal immigrants, namely
instability of migration balance, while the case is opposite for western coun¬
tries, and especially for Northern Europe.
In that sense, the width of prediction intervals for Serbia's population in
2050,
estimated in this monograph, coincides with the fundamental conclu¬
sions of a voluminous study which contains comparative projections for
18
countries, issued by the Statistics Netherlands (Statistics Netherlands,
2005).
Namely, the relative width of this interval is the closest to intervals for coun¬
tries of Southern Europe taking into consideration the general absence of
long and adequate enough time series, especially when migration data are
in question (lack of official emigration records), as well as considerably gre¬
ater uncertainty in view of migration future compared to highly developed
European countries.
Such a conclusion refers to the need of further development of popula¬
tion projections methodology through probabilistic approach within expert
teams, with an aim of accepting this approach as an official procedure of
elaborating national projections by the Republic Statistical Office. Namely,
additional expert opinion would certainly have an influence on decreasing
the uncertainty degree in view of Serbia's demographic future, presented in
this monograph, having in mind the general conservative standpoint of the
experts as regards structural changes in the trends of main components,
which is also shown in the stated study of Statistics Netherlands. |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Nikitović, Vladimir |
| author_facet | Nikitović, Vladimir |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Nikitović, Vladimir |
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| bvnumber | BV037380990 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)663106789 (DE-599)BVBBV037380990 |
| era | Prognose gnd |
| era_facet | Prognose |
| format | Book |
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| geographic | Serbia / Emigration and immigration Serbien (DE-588)4054598-2 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Serbia / Emigration and immigration Serbien |
| id | DE-604.BV037380990 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-20T04:24:46Z |
| institution | BVB |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-022534116 |
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| owner | DE-12 DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR |
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| physical | 202 S. graph. Darst. 24 cm |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publishDateSearch | 2010 |
| publishDateSort | 2010 |
| publisher | Službeni Glasnik |
| record_format | marc |
| series | Biblioteka Nauka |
| series2 | Biblioteka Nauka : Edicija Studije |
| spelling | Nikitović, Vladimir Verfasser aut Demografska budućnost Srbije imigracija kao izvesnost? Vladimir Nikitović Beograd Službeni Glasnik 2010 202 S. graph. Darst. 24 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Biblioteka Nauka : Edicija Studije 14 Zsfassung in engl. Sprache Prognose gnd rswk-swf Serbia / Population Population forecasting / Methodology Migration Kompensation (DE-588)4031980-5 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf Einwanderung (DE-588)4013960-8 gnd rswk-swf Serbia / Emigration and immigration Serbien (DE-588)4054598-2 gnd rswk-swf Serbien (DE-588)4054598-2 g Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s Prognose z DE-604 Einwanderung (DE-588)4013960-8 s Kompensation (DE-588)4031980-5 s Biblioteka Nauka Edicija Studije ; 14 (DE-604)BV035732223 14 Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=022534116&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=022534116&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Abstract |
| spellingShingle | Nikitović, Vladimir Demografska budućnost Srbije imigracija kao izvesnost? Biblioteka Nauka Serbia / Population Population forecasting / Methodology Migration Kompensation (DE-588)4031980-5 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Einwanderung (DE-588)4013960-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4031980-5 (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4013960-8 (DE-588)4054598-2 |
| title | Demografska budućnost Srbije imigracija kao izvesnost? |
| title_auth | Demografska budućnost Srbije imigracija kao izvesnost? |
| title_exact_search | Demografska budućnost Srbije imigracija kao izvesnost? |
| title_full | Demografska budućnost Srbije imigracija kao izvesnost? Vladimir Nikitović |
| title_fullStr | Demografska budućnost Srbije imigracija kao izvesnost? Vladimir Nikitović |
| title_full_unstemmed | Demografska budućnost Srbije imigracija kao izvesnost? Vladimir Nikitović |
| title_short | Demografska budućnost Srbije |
| title_sort | demografska buducnost srbije imigracija kao izvesnost |
| title_sub | imigracija kao izvesnost? |
| topic | Serbia / Population Population forecasting / Methodology Migration Kompensation (DE-588)4031980-5 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Einwanderung (DE-588)4013960-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Serbia / Population Population forecasting / Methodology Migration Kompensation Bevölkerungsentwicklung Einwanderung Serbia / Emigration and immigration Serbien |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=022534116&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=022534116&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV035732223 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nikitovicvladimir demografskabuducnostsrbijeimigracijakaoizvesnost |