Climate change and climate modeling:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge [u.a.]
Cambridge Univ. Press
2011
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Cover image Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XV, 282 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 9780521841573 9780521602433 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804143830165880832 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | rrejace page
xiii
1
Overview of climate variability and climate science
1
1.1
Climate dynamics, climate change and climate prediction
1
1.2
The chemical and physical climate system
3
1.2.1
Chemical and physical aspects of the climate system
3
1.2.2
El Niño
and global warming
4
1.3
Climate models:
abrief
overview
5
1.4
Global change in recent history
η
1.4.1
Trace gas concentrations
η
1.4.2
A word on the ozone hole JO
1.4.3
Some history of global warming studies
10
1.4.4
Global temperatures
γι
1.5
El Niño:
an example of natural climate variability
] 3
1.5.1
Some history of El
N
iño
studies
14
1.5.2
Observations of
El Niño:
the
1997-98
event
19
1.5.3
The first
El Niño
forecast with a coupled ocean-atmosphere
model
22
1.6
Paleoclimate variability
24
Notes
29
2
Basics of global climate
34
2.1
Components and phenomena in the climate system
34
2.1.1
Time and space scales
35
2.1.2
Interactions among scales and the parameterization problem
37
2.2
Basics of radiative forcing 4I
2.2.1
Blackbody
radiation 4[
2.2.2
Solar energy input
44
2.3
Globally averaged energy budget: first glance
46
2.4
Gradients of radiative forcing and energy transports
48
2.5
Atmospheric circulation
59
2.5.1
Vertical structure
ЗО
2.5.2
Latitude structure of the circulation 5I
2.5.3
Latitude-longitude dependence of atmospheric climate
features
54
2.6
Ocean circulation
5
g
2.6.1
Latitude-longitude dependence of
oceanic climate
features
58
2.6.2
The ocean vertical structure
60
2.6.3
The ocean thermohaline circulation
62
2.7
Land surface processes
63
2.8
The carbon cycle
64
Notes
69
3
Physical processes in the climate system
71
3.1
Conservation of momentum
71
3.1.1
Coriolis force
72
3.1.2
Pressure gradient force
74
3.1.3
Velocity equations
75
3.1.4
Application: geostrophic wind
75
3.1.5
Pressure-height relation: hydrostatic balance
76
3.1.6
Application: pressure coordinates
76
3.2
Equation of state
77
3.2.1
Equation of state for the atmosphere: ideal gas law
77
3.2.2
Equation of state for the ocean
77
3.2.3
Application: atmospheric height-pressure-temperature
relation
78
3.2.4
Application: thermal circulations
79
3.2.5
Application: sea level rise due to oceanic thermal
expansion
80
3.3
Temperature equation
81
3.3.1
Ocean temperature equation
81
3.3.2
Temperature equation for air
81
3.3.3
Application: the dry adiabatic lapse rate near the surface
82
3.3.4
Application: decay of a sea surface temperature anomaly
83
3.3.5
Time derivative following the parcel
84
3.4
Continuity equation
85
3.4.1
Oceanic continuity equation
86
3.4.2
Atmospheric continuity equation
86
3.4.3
Application: coastal upwelling
87
3.4.4
Application: equatorial upwelling
88
3.4.5
Application: conservation of warm water mass in an idealized
layer above the thermocline
88
3.5
Conservation of mass applied to moisture
89
3.5.1
Moisture equation for the atmosphere and surface
89
3.5.2
Sources and sinks of moisture, and latent heat
90
3.5.3
Application: surface melting on an ice sheet
91
3.5.4
Salinity equation for the ocean
91
3.6
Moist processes
92
3.6.1
Saturation
92
3.6.2
Saturation in convection; lifting condensation level
93
3.6.3
The moist adiabat and lapse rate in convective regions
94
3.6.4
Moist convection
94
3.7
Wave processes in the atmosphere and ocean
95
3.7.1
Gravity waves
95
3.7.2
Kelvin waves
96
3.7.3
Rossby waves
96
3.8
Overview
98
Notes
101
4
El Niño
and year-to-year climate prediction
103
4.1
Recap of
El Niño
basics
103
4.1.1
The Bjerknes hypothesis
103
4.2
Tropical Pacific climatology
104
4.3
ENSO mechanisms
1:
extreme phases
106
4.4
Pressure gradients in an idealized upper layer
108
4.4.1
Subsurface temperature anomalies in an idealized upper layer
109
4.5
Transition into the
1997-98
El Niño
110
4.5.1
Subsurface temperature measurements
110
4.5.2
Subsurface temperature anomalies during the onset of
El Niño
111
4.5.3
Subsurface temperature anomalies during the transition to
La Niña
115
4.6
El Niño
mechanisms II: dynamics of transition phases
116
4.6.1
Equatorial jets and the Kelvin wave
117
4.6.2
The Kelvin wave speed
119
4.6.3
What sets the width of the Kelvin wave and equatorial jet?
120
4.6.4
Response of the ocean to a wind anomaly
121
4.6.5
The delayed oscillator model and the recharge oscillator model
123
4.6.6
ENSO transition mechanism in brief
124
4.7
El Niño
prediction
125
4.7.1
Limits to skill in ENSO forecasts
127
4.8
El Niño
remote impacts: teleconnections
131
4.9
Other interannual climate phenomena
136
4.9.1
Hurricane season forecasts
136
4.9.2
Sahel drought
140
4.9.3
North Atlantic oscillation and annular modes
141
Notes
142
5
Climate models
145
5.1
Constructing a climate model
145
5.1.1
An atmospheric model
145
5.1.2
Treatment of sub-grid-scale processes
147
5.1.3
Resolution and computational cost
149
5.1.4
An ocean model and ocean-atmosphere coupling
152
5.1.5
Land surface, snow, ice and vegetation
154
5.1.6
Summary of principal climate model equations
156
5.1.7
Climate
system
modeling
157
5.2
Numerical representation of atmospheric and oceanic equations
158
5.2.1
Finite-difference versus spectral models
158
5.2.2
Time-stepping and numerical stability
161
5.2.3
Staggered grids and other grids
163
5.2.4
Parallel computer architecture
165
5.3
Parameterization of small-scale processes
166
5.3.1
Mixing and surface fluxes
166
5.3.2
Dry convection
168
5.3.3
Moist convection
169
5.3.4
Land surface processes and soil moisture
171
5.3.5
Sea ice and snow
172
5.4
The hierarchy of climate models
175
5.5
Climate simulations and climate drift
177
5.6
Evaluation of climate model simulations for
present-day climate
179
5.6.1
Atmospheric model climatology from specified SST
179
5.6.2
Climate model simulation of climatology
181
5.6.3
Simulation of ENSO response
188
Notes
191
6
The greenhouse effect and climate feedbacks
193
6.1
The greenhouse effect in Earth s current climate
193
6.1.1
Global energy balance
193
6.1.2
A global-average energy balance model with a one-layer
atmosphere
194
6.1.3
Infrared emissions from a layer
194
6.1.4
The greenhouse effect: example with a completely
IR-absorbing atmosphere
195
6.1.5
The greenhouse effect in a one-layer atmosphere, global-average
model
196
6.1.6
Temperatures from the one-layer energy balance model
197
6.2
Global warming I: example in the global-average energy balance model
198
6.2.1
Increases in the basic greenhouse effect
198
6.2.2
Climate feedback parameter in the one-layer global-average model
199
6.3
Climate feedbacks
201
6.3.1
Climate feedback parameter
202
6.3.2
Contributions of climate feedbacks to global-average
temperature response
203
6.3.3
Climate sensitivity
204
6.4
The water vapor feedback
205
6.5
Snow/ice feedback
207
6.6
Cloud feedbacks
208
6.7
Other feedbacks in the physical climate system
210
6.7.1
Stratospheric cooling
210
6.7.2
Lapse rate feedback
211
6.8
Climate response time in transient climate change
211
6.8.1
Transient climate change versus equilibrium response experiments
211
6.8.2
A
doubled
-СОг
equilibrium response experiment
215
6.8.3
The role of the oceans in slowing warming
215
6.8.4
Climate sensitivity in transient climate change
217
Notes
219
7
Climate model scenarios for global warming
221
7.1
Greenhouse gases, aerosols and other climate forcings
221
7.1.1
Scenarios, forcings and feedbacks
221
7.1.2
Forcing by
sulfate
aerosols
222
7.1.3
Commonly used scenarios
222
7.2
Global-average response to greenhouse warming scenarios
225
7.3
Spatial patterns of warming for time-dependent scenarios
229
7.3.1
Comparing projections of different climate models
232
7.3.2
Multi-model ensemble averages
235
7.3.3
Polar amplification of warming
237
7.3.4
Summary of spatial patterns of the response
238
7.4
Ice, sea level, extreme events
238
7.4.1
Sea ice and snow
238
7.4.2
Land ice
240
7.4.3
Extreme events
243
7.5
Summary: the best-estimate prognosis
244
7.6
Climate change observed to date
246
7.6.1
Temperature trends and natural variability: scale dependence
246
7.6.2
Is the observed trend consistent with natural variability or
anthropogenic forcing?
248
7.6.3
Sea ice, land ice, ocean heat storage and sea level rise
250
7.7
Emissions paths and their impacts
252
7.8
The road ahead
256
Notes
260
Glossary
263
References
267
Index
280
|
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T22:53:53Z |
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| isbn | 9780521841573 9780521602433 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2010039193 |
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| spelling | Neelin, J. David Verfasser (DE-588)144020920 aut Climate change and climate modeling J. David Neelin 1. publ. Cambridge [u.a.] Cambridge Univ. Press 2011 XV, 282 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Geowissenschaften Klimaänderung Climatology Textbooks Climatic changes Textbooks SCIENCE / Earth Sciences / Meteorology & Climatology bisacsh Modellierung (DE-588)4170297-9 gnd rswk-swf Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd rswk-swf Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 s Modellierung (DE-588)4170297-9 s b DE-604 http://assets.cambridge.org/97805218/41573/cover/9780521841573.jpg Cover image Digitalisierung UB Augsburg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=021140537&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Neelin, J. David Climate change and climate modeling Geowissenschaften Klimaänderung Climatology Textbooks Climatic changes Textbooks SCIENCE / Earth Sciences / Meteorology & Climatology bisacsh Modellierung (DE-588)4170297-9 gnd Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4170297-9 (DE-588)4164199-1 |
| title | Climate change and climate modeling |
| title_auth | Climate change and climate modeling |
| title_exact_search | Climate change and climate modeling |
| title_full | Climate change and climate modeling J. David Neelin |
| title_fullStr | Climate change and climate modeling J. David Neelin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change and climate modeling J. David Neelin |
| title_short | Climate change and climate modeling |
| title_sort | climate change and climate modeling |
| topic | Geowissenschaften Klimaänderung Climatology Textbooks Climatic changes Textbooks SCIENCE / Earth Sciences / Meteorology & Climatology bisacsh Modellierung (DE-588)4170297-9 gnd Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Geowissenschaften Klimaänderung Climatology Textbooks Climatic changes Textbooks SCIENCE / Earth Sciences / Meteorology & Climatology Modellierung |
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