Beyond mechanical markets: asset price swings, risk, and the role of the state
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Princeton [u.a.]
Princeton Univ. Press
2011
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | XV, 285 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780691145778 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Frydman, Roman |d 1948- |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)136034934 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Beyond mechanical markets |b asset price swings, risk, and the role of the state |c Roman Frydman and Michael D. Goldberg |
| 264 | 1 | |a Princeton [u.a.] |b Princeton Univ. Press |c 2011 | |
| 300 | |a XV, 285 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index | ||
| 648 | 7 | |a Geschichte 2007-2010 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Rational expectations (Economic theory) | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Economic forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Risk | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Keynesian economics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Securities |x Prices | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804143673950076928 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Acknowledgments
xiii
What Went Wrong and What We Can Do about It
1
The Fatal Flaw
1
Assuming Away What Matters Most
2
The Imperfect Knowledge Alternative
6
Fishermen and Financial Markets
7
The Survival of the Rational Market Myth
8
Opening Economics and Finance to
Nonroutine
Change
and Imperfect Knowledge
11
Imperfect Knowledge Economics and Its Implications
12
A New Understanding of Asset-Price Swings, Risk,
and the Role of the State
14
PARTI
THE CRITIQUE
1.
The Invention of Mechanical Markets
21
Economists Rationality or Markets?
22
Was Milton Friedman Really Unconcerned
about Assumptions?
24
The Post-Crisis Life of Interacting Robots
28
Vlil
CONTENTS
Missing the Point in the Economists Debate
35
The Distorted Language of Economic Discourse
38
2.
The Folly of Fully Predetermined History
41
The Fatal Conceit Revisited
43
The Pretense of Exact Knowledge
46
The Economist as Engineer
47
Staying the Course in the Face of Reason
50
3.
The Orwellian World of Rational Expectations
55
Muth s Warning Ignored
59
The Rational Expectations Revolution:
Model Consistency as a Standard of Rationality
61
The Spurious Narrative of Rational Expectations
62
A World of Stasis and Thought Uniformity
63
Economists Rationality and Socialist Planning
66
4.
The Figment of the Rational Market
71
Pseudo-Diversity in the Rational Market
73
The Irrelevance of the Rational Market
76
Beware of Rational Expectations Models
77
The Fatal Conceit of the Rational Expectations
Hypothesis
79
5.
Castles in the Air: The Efficient Market Hypothesis
81
The Market Metaphor
82
Imagining Markets in a Fully Predetermined World
84
CONTENTS
IX
Samuelson s
Doubts
89
lhe
Illusory Stability of the Rational Market
92
Efficient Market Hypothesis and Asset-Price Swings
96
6.
The Fable of Price Swings as Bubbles
103
Reinventing Irrationality
104
Bubbles in a World of Rational Expectations:
Mechanizing Crowd Psychology
105
A Seductive Narrative of Behavioral Bubbles
109
Limits to Arbitrage: An Artifact of Mechanistic Theory 111
The Trouble with Behavioral Bubbles
112
Forgotten Fundamentals
114
PARTII
AN ALTERNATIVE
7.
Keynes and Fundamentals
117
Was Keynes a Behavioral Economist?
120
Imperfect Knowledge and Fundamentals
ΥΣ1
Are Fundamentals Really Irrelevant in the Beauty Contest?
124
Fundamentals and Equity-Price Movements: Evidence
from Bloomberg s Market Stories
128
8.
Speculation and the Allocative Performance
of Financial Markets
149
Short-Term and Value Speculators
154
How Short-Term Speculation Facilitates Value Speculation
156
Speculation and Economic Dynamism
160
X
CONTENTS
9.
Fundamentals and Psychology in Price Swings
163
Bulls, Bears, and Individual Forecasting
166
Persistent Trends in Fundamentals
168
Guardedly Moderate Revisions
169
Price Swings in Individual Stocks and the Market
172
Price Swings, Genuine Diversity, and Rationality
173
Sustained Reversals
173
10.
Bounded Instability: Linking Risk and Asset-Price Swings
175
The Indispensable Role of Asset-Price Swings in
Allocating Capital
177
Historical Benchmarks as Gauges of
Longer-Term Prospects
179
The Unfolding of Excessive Price Swings
182
Linking Risk to Distance from Benchmark Levels
187
How Markets Ultimately Self-Correct
189
The Return of Fundamentals
192
11.
Contingency and Markets
195
Contingent Market Hypothesis
198
Contingency and Instability of Economic
Structures
199
The Fleeting Profitability of Mechanical
Trading Rules
205
Temporary Profit Opportunities
212
An Intermediate View of Markets and a New
Framework for Prudential Policy
214
CONTENTS Xl
12.
Restoring the Market-State Balance
217
The Importance of Policy Reform for
Financial Markets
218
Rationale for Active State Intervention in
Financial Markets
227
Excess-Dampening Measures and Guidance Ranges
229
Active Excess-Dampening Measures
237
Excessive Price Swings and the Banking System
243
Imperfect Knowledge and Credit Ratings
246
Epilogue
249
What Can Economists Know?
249
The Search for Omniscience
250
Sharp versus Contingent Predictions
252
Recognizing Our Own Imperfect Knowledge
253
Imperfect Knowledge Economics as the Boundary
of
Macroeconomic
Theory
255
References
257
Index
273
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Frydman, Roman 1948- Goldberg, Michael D. 1958- |
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| dewey-ones | 339 - Macroeconomics and related topics |
| dewey-raw | 339 |
| dewey-search | 339 |
| dewey-sort | 3339 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| era | Geschichte 2007-2010 gnd |
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| id | DE-604.BV036952769 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T22:51:24Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780691145778 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2010044395 |
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| publisher | Princeton Univ. Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Frydman, Roman 1948- Verfasser (DE-588)136034934 aut Beyond mechanical markets asset price swings, risk, and the role of the state Roman Frydman and Michael D. Goldberg Princeton [u.a.] Princeton Univ. Press 2011 XV, 285 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Geschichte 2007-2010 gnd rswk-swf Rational expectations (Economic theory) Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 Economic forecasting Risk Keynesian economics Securities Prices Marktverhalten (DE-588)4135561-1 gnd rswk-swf Rationale Erwartung (DE-588)4121553-9 gnd rswk-swf Kapitalmarkttheorie (DE-588)4137411-3 gnd rswk-swf Anlageverhalten (DE-588)4214003-1 gnd rswk-swf Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd rswk-swf Marktmechanismus (DE-588)4139127-5 gnd rswk-swf Unvollkommene Information (DE-588)4140474-9 gnd rswk-swf Aktienkursprognose (DE-588)4122774-8 gnd rswk-swf Kapitalmarkttheorie (DE-588)4137411-3 s Unvollkommene Information (DE-588)4140474-9 s Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 s Geschichte 2007-2010 z DE-604 Marktmechanismus (DE-588)4139127-5 s Rationale Erwartung (DE-588)4121553-9 s Aktienkursprognose (DE-588)4122774-8 s Anlageverhalten (DE-588)4214003-1 s DE-188 Marktverhalten (DE-588)4135561-1 s 1\p DE-604 Goldberg, Michael D. 1958- Verfasser (DE-588)112186130 aut Digitalisierung UB Bamberg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020867790&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Frydman, Roman 1948- Goldberg, Michael D. 1958- Beyond mechanical markets asset price swings, risk, and the role of the state Rational expectations (Economic theory) Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 Economic forecasting Risk Keynesian economics Securities Prices Marktverhalten (DE-588)4135561-1 gnd Rationale Erwartung (DE-588)4121553-9 gnd Kapitalmarkttheorie (DE-588)4137411-3 gnd Anlageverhalten (DE-588)4214003-1 gnd Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd Marktmechanismus (DE-588)4139127-5 gnd Unvollkommene Information (DE-588)4140474-9 gnd Aktienkursprognose (DE-588)4122774-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4135561-1 (DE-588)4121553-9 (DE-588)4137411-3 (DE-588)4214003-1 (DE-588)7635855-0 (DE-588)4139127-5 (DE-588)4140474-9 (DE-588)4122774-8 |
| title | Beyond mechanical markets asset price swings, risk, and the role of the state |
| title_auth | Beyond mechanical markets asset price swings, risk, and the role of the state |
| title_exact_search | Beyond mechanical markets asset price swings, risk, and the role of the state |
| title_full | Beyond mechanical markets asset price swings, risk, and the role of the state Roman Frydman and Michael D. Goldberg |
| title_fullStr | Beyond mechanical markets asset price swings, risk, and the role of the state Roman Frydman and Michael D. Goldberg |
| title_full_unstemmed | Beyond mechanical markets asset price swings, risk, and the role of the state Roman Frydman and Michael D. Goldberg |
| title_short | Beyond mechanical markets |
| title_sort | beyond mechanical markets asset price swings risk and the role of the state |
| title_sub | asset price swings, risk, and the role of the state |
| topic | Rational expectations (Economic theory) Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 Economic forecasting Risk Keynesian economics Securities Prices Marktverhalten (DE-588)4135561-1 gnd Rationale Erwartung (DE-588)4121553-9 gnd Kapitalmarkttheorie (DE-588)4137411-3 gnd Anlageverhalten (DE-588)4214003-1 gnd Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd Marktmechanismus (DE-588)4139127-5 gnd Unvollkommene Information (DE-588)4140474-9 gnd Aktienkursprognose (DE-588)4122774-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Rational expectations (Economic theory) Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 Economic forecasting Risk Keynesian economics Securities Prices Marktverhalten Rationale Erwartung Kapitalmarkttheorie Anlageverhalten Finanzkrise Marktmechanismus Unvollkommene Information Aktienkursprognose |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020867790&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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