Macroeconometric modeling of Japan:
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New Jersey, NJ [u.a.]
World Scientific
2010
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Econometrics in the information age
4 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Enth. 14 Beitr. |
| Beschreibung: | XVII, 464 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9812834613 9789812834614 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Macroeconometric modeling of Japan |c eds.: Shinichi Ichimura ... |
| 264 | 1 | |a New Jersey, NJ [u.a.] |b World Scientific |c 2010 | |
| 300 | |a XVII, 464 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
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| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-020785647 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804143574369959936 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Macroeconometric modeling of Japan
Autor: Ichimura, Shin ichi
Jahr: 2010
Contents
Preface v
List of Editors and Authors vii
List of Tables and Figures xxi
Introduction: A Historie Survey of Macroeconometric
Models in Japan 1
Shinichi Ichimura
1 Available Statistics in Japan................... 1
1.1 Rieh historic statistics.................... 1
1.2 Long term economic statistics............... 1
1.3 Japanese national income statistics............. 2
1.4 Interindustrial relations tables ............... 3
1.5 Survey data......................... 6
1.6 Flowoffunds table..................... 7
2 Social Accounting Approaches and Use of Survey Data .... 7
2.1 Great ratios in national income aecounts.......... 7
2.2 Identification of post-war Japanese business cycles .... 8
3 Input-Output Analysis and CGE Models............ 8
3.1 Structural analysis with IO tables.............. 8
3.2 Applications to regional analyses and CGE models .... 10
3.3 Flow of funds tables and its applications.......... 11
4 Macroeconometric Models.................... 11
4.1 Kazuo Sato s survey and other readings
of Japanese models..................... II
4.2 Long-term modeling and quantitative economic history . . 13
4.3 Standard macroeconometric models in early stages .... 13
4.4 Models integrated with IO analysis and internationally
linked............................ 15
4.5 Macroeconometric models after 1988........... 18
Xl
xii Macroeconometric Modeling of Japan
4.6 High frequency short-term forecasting model
and medium-term model.................. 20
............ 23
References
31
Part I. Social Accounting and Survey Analysis
Chapter 1: Factors for Rapid Growth of the Japanese
Economy: A Social Accounting Approach 33
Shinichi Ichimura
1 Introduction........................... 33
2 Exposition ofa Simple Social Accounting Model........ 35
3 Our Social Accounting System and Statistical Data....... 39
4 Rapid Industrialization, Dual Structure and Technical
Progress............................. 44
5 Supply of Productive Factors and Technical Progress...... 48
6 Resource Allocation and Market Mechanism.......... 51
7 The Growth of National Expenditure and Its Composition ... 55
References.............................. 61
Chapter 2: Social Accounting Analysis of Japan s Lost 90s 63
Hyun Suk
1 Introduction........................... 63
2 Construction and Applications of MSAM............ 64
2.1 Macroeconomic SAM ................... 64
2.2 The MSAM multipliers................... 65
3 SAM Multiplier Analysis.................... 68
4 Summary............................. 73
References.............................. 76
Websites............................... 77
Chapter 3: Business Indexes and Survey Data for Forecast 79
Yuji Shimanaka and Tatsushi Shikano
1 Introduction........................... 79
2 The Criteria to Recognize Economic Conditions........ 79
2.1 The business indexes, GDP statistics,
and the BOJ Tankan..................... 79
2.2 Schumpeter s approach and the BOJ s Tankan....... 83
2.3 Momentary wind velocity and the GDP growth rate .... 83
Contents xiii
2.4 Predicting the economic outlook by the direction
ofchange.......................... 84
2.5 Monthly surveys - Reuters, economy watchers,
and the consumer confidence................ 88
3 The Use of Leading Indexes - MUS Leading Index...... 90
3.1 The history of Japan s business indexes.......... 90
3.2 The MUS Leading Index (MUS-LI) for the Japanese
economy .......................... 92
3.3 The Performance of the MUS-LI for the Japanese
economy .......................... 99
3.4 The merits and demerits of forecasts using
leading indexes....................... 102
References.............................. 104
Part IL Input-Output Analyses and CGE Models 107
Chapter 4: Factor Proportions and Foreign Trade:
The Case of Japan 109
Masahiro Tatemoto and Shinichi Ichimura
1 The Leontief Paradox?...................... 109
2 Computational Procedures and Statistical Data......... 110
3 Statistical Results and Implications............... 112
Chapter 5: Interregional Interdependence and Regional
Economic Growth in Japan 119
Takahiro Akita
1 Introduction........................... 119
2 Data and Method......................... 122
2.1 Data............................. 122
2.2 Method........................... 122
3 Major Findings.......................... 126
4 Conclusions........................... 133
Appendix.............................. 134
References.............................. 135
Chapter 6: The Flying-Geese Pattern of East Asian
Development: A Computable General Equüibrium Approach 137
Mitsuo Ezaki and Shoichi Ito
1 Introduction ........................... 137
2 Flying-Geese Pattern of Development.............. 138
xiv Macroeconometric Modeling of Japan
3 Link CGE System and Elasticity-Multipliers.......... 139
3.1 Basic framework...................... 139
3.2 Data............................. 144
3.3 Structure .......................... 146
3.4 Solution method ...................... 153
3.5 Elasticity-multipliers.................... 154
4 Comparative Statics and Dynamics of Technology
Changes............................. 155
4.1 Theory of flying-geese pattern............... 155
4.2 Differences in technology.................. 157
4.3 Comparative statics of technology changes......... 159
4.4 Comparative dynamics of technology changes....... 164
5 Concluding Remarks....................... 169
References.............................. 170
Chapter 7: A Flow-of-Funds Analysis of Quantitative
Monetary Policy 173
Kazusuke Tsujimura and Masako Tsujimura
1 Introduction........................... 173
2 Asset Liability Matrix...................... 175
2.1 E-and R-tables....................... 175
2.2 Y-and Y*-tables ...................... 176
3 Methodologies.......................... 178
3.1 ALM with BOJ as exogenous institutional sector..... 178
3.2 Evaluation of quantitative monetary policy......... 179
3.3 Contributing factors to fluctuations in NII......... 180
4 Estimation Results........................ 183
4.1 Monthly fluctuations and the degree of
contribution to NII..................... 183
4.2 Examination of money market Operation methods..... 186
5 Policy Implications........................ 188
Appendix.............................. 189
A.l F and Y* matrices ..................... 189
A.2 e Y mdpY in the Y-table.................. 190
A.3 er mdpr in the Y*-table.................. 191
References.............................. 192
Contents xv
Part III. Macroeconometric Models 195
Chapter 8: An Econometric Model of Japanese Economic
Growth, 1878-1937 197
Lawrence R. Klein
1 Introduction........................... 197
2 The Nature ofthe Model..................... 198
3 The Sample and Estimates.................... 203
4 Extrapolation and the Rate of Growth
of the Japanese Economy.................... 206
Chapter 9: An Econometric Model of Japan, 1930-1959 213
Lawrence R. Klein and Yoichi Shinkai
1 Introduction........................... 213
2 Rationale ofthe Model...................... 214
2.1 The variables........................ 219
2.2 The estimated equations .................. 220
3 Some Properties of the System ................. 222
4 Extrapolation to 1959...................... 228
5 Prospects for Japanese Development in the Light
ofthe Model........................... 231
Appendix.............................. 233
Sources of data.......................... 234
Sources of data for extrapolation and forecasting........ 235
Chapter 10: Osaka ISER Model 241
I. An Outline of the Model 241
Lawrence R. Klein and Shinichi Ichimura
1 The ISER Model in Contemporary Macroeconomic Theory . . 241
2 The Model and Data Availability................ 244
3 The General Framework..................... 245
4 List of Time Series and Symbols ................ 253
4.1 Series of production sectors5................ 253
4.2 Series of the household sector............... 256
4.3 Series of externa! trade................... 256
4.4 Financial series....................... 258
4.5 Series related to the government sector
(lOO billion Yen unless otherwise specified)........ 259
xvi Macroeconometric Modeling of Japan
4.6 Series relating to aggregate national accounts
(lOObillion Yen unless otherwise specified)........ 259
4.7 Series of total population and employment......... 260
5 A Quarterly Econometric Model of Japan, 1952-1959..... 260
II. Detailed Discussion of the Model 287
Shinichi Ichimura, Lawrence R. Klein, Susumu Koizumi
and Kazuo Sato
1 Manufacturing Sector...................... 287
1.1 Production decision functions ............... 287
1.2 Production function..................... 290
1.3 Material input function................... 291
1.4 Price determination equations ............... 292
1.5 Material price determination equations........... 293
1.6 Wage-rate determination equations............. 294
1.7 Fixed Investment functions................. 296
2 Inventory Investment....................... 298
2.1 Manufacturing inventories ? finished goods........ 298
2.2 Manufacturing inventories ? raw materials and goods
in process.......................... 299
2.3 Dealers inventories..................... 299
2.4 Orders............................ 300
2.5 Agricultural inventory equation............... 300
3 Tertiary and Agriculture Sectors................. 300
3-A Tertiary sector........................ 300
3-B Agricultural sector..................... 302
4 Household sector......................... 303
4.1 Consumption functions of food, textile and other..... 304
4.2 The residential Investment function ............ 304
4.3 Consumers prices determination equation......... 305
5 The Financial Sector....................... 306
5.1 The demand functions of individuals and private
corporations......................... 306
5.2 The demand functions of corporations........... 307
5.3 The demand functions of the government sector...... 308
5.4 The behavior equations of the financial sector....... 308
5.5 The determination ofthe rate ofinterest.......... 311
5.6 The policy equation ofthe Bank of Japan........ . 312
Contents xvii
6 The Foreign Trade Sector.................... 312
6-A Import functions ...................... 312
6-B Export functions ...................... 313
7 Miscellaneous Equations and Identities............. 317
III. Dynamic Properties of the Model 320
Shinichi Ichimura and Lawrence R. Klein
1 Impact Multipliers........................ 320
2 Final Test............................. 323
3 Dynamic Multipliers of Government Expenditure
and Exports............................ 325
4 Multiplier Effects of the Fall in Impact Prices.......... 329
5 Multiplier Effects of Rise in Agricultural Productivity..... 330
6 Multiplier Effects for Personal Income Tax Reduction..... 330
7 Multiplier Effects of Excise Tax Cut............... 333
8 Analysis of the Effects of Monetary Policies.......... 334
Appendix.............................. 336
References.............................. 340
Chapter 11: The Japan Model for World Project LINK 343
Kanemi Ban
1 Introduction........................... 343
2 List of Variables in the Ban Model................ 343
3 The System of Equations .................... 349
3.1 Expenditure side equations................. 349
3.2 Price variables ....................... 353
3.3 Labor and work variables.................. 356
3.4 Households Sector..................... 359
3.5 Corporate sector ...................... 360
3.6 Government sector..................... 361
3.7 Financial sector....................... 362
3.8 Foreign trade........................ 364
Chapter 12: The Saito Model of the Japanese Economy 379
Mitsuo Saito
1 Introduction........................... 379
2 List of Variables......................... 379
3 The System of Equations .................... 379
3.1 The expenditure sector................... 384
3.2 The distribution sector................... 385
xviii Macroeconometric Modeling of Japan
3.3 The price sector....................... 386
3.4 Government, banks and external balances......... 387
3.5 Additionsto the model, 1974-1993............ 387
4 FinalTest............................. 388
5 D.W. Ratios in the Model.................... 388
6 Changes in the Foreign Exchange Rate and their Effects .... 390
7 Effects of OiI Crisis....................... 391
8 An Analysis ofthe Low Rate of Growth in the 1990s...... 391
Chapter 13: High Frequency Model vs. Consensus Forecast 393
Yoshihisa Inada
1 Introduction........................... 393
2 Consensus Forecast....................... 393
2.1 ESP forecast survey..................... 394
2.2 Forecast errors ....................... 394
2.3 Accuracy of consensus forecast............... 396
3 High Frequency Model Forecast................. 397
3.1 Use of monthly or weekly data in HF model........ 397
3.2 Forecasting weekly GDP by ARIMA model........ 398
4 Prediction Errors: Consensus vs. HF Model Forecast...... 401
4.1 Timing of data announcement and forecast errors..... 401
4.2 Features of prediction errors in both forecasts....... 402
4.3 Forecast time-point and the prediction errors........ 405
4.4 Dynamic forecast process - recent experiences...... 405
5 Concluding Remarks....................... 408
References.............................. 408
Chapter 14: Policy Alternatives for Japan Toward 2020 411
Shuntaro Shishido, Akira Kawakami and Kiyoshi Tamashiro
1 Introduction.........................., 411
2 The Structureof Model DEMIOS................ 412
2.1 Features of the model.................... 412
2.2 Demographic block..................... 412
2.3 Input-output block..................... 415
2.4 Macroeconomic block................... 418
3 Dynamic Multipliers....................... 421
4 Japan s Stagnation During 1992-2005 was Avoidable..... 422
Contents xix
5 Alternative Scenarios on Economic Growth for 2020...... 433
5.1 Baseline scenario...................... 434
5.2 Policy scenario....................... 434
5.3 Sector-level production................... 443
6 Concluding Remarks and Future Research........... 445
References.............................. 453
Author Index 455
Subject Index 459
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| spelling | Macroeconometric modeling of Japan eds.: Shinichi Ichimura ... New Jersey, NJ [u.a.] World Scientific 2010 XVII, 464 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Econometrics in the information age 4 Enth. 14 Beitr. Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd rswk-swf Japan (DE-588)4028495-5 gnd rswk-swf Japan (DE-588)4028495-5 g Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 s b DE-604 Ichimura, Shin'ichi 1925- Sonstige (DE-588)123386055 oth Econometrics in the information age 4 (DE-604)BV013975136 4 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020785647&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
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| subject_GND | (DE-588)4074486-3 (DE-588)4028495-5 |
| title | Macroeconometric modeling of Japan |
| title_auth | Macroeconometric modeling of Japan |
| title_exact_search | Macroeconometric modeling of Japan |
| title_full | Macroeconometric modeling of Japan eds.: Shinichi Ichimura ... |
| title_fullStr | Macroeconometric modeling of Japan eds.: Shinichi Ichimura ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Macroeconometric modeling of Japan eds.: Shinichi Ichimura ... |
| title_short | Macroeconometric modeling of Japan |
| title_sort | macroeconometric modeling of japan |
| topic | Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Makroökonomisches Modell Japan |
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