Empirical statistical downscaling:
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New Jersey [u.a.]
World Scientific
2008
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Literaturverz. S. 201 - 121 |
| Beschreibung: | XII, 215 S. Ill., graph. Darst. 24 cm |
| ISBN: | 9789812819123 9812819126 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Benestad, Rasmus E. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Empirical statistical downscaling |c Rasmus E. Benestad, Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Deliang Chen |
| 264 | 1 | |a New Jersey [u.a.] |b World Scientific |c 2008 | |
| 300 | |a XII, 215 S. |b Ill., graph. Darst. |c 24 cm | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Literaturverz. S. 201 - 121 | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Klimaänderung | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Mathematisches Modell | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climatic changes |x Mathematical models | |
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| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Statistisches Modell |0 (DE-588)4121722-6 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
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| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Klima |0 (DE-588)4031170-3 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Hanssen-Bauer, Inger |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Chen, Deliang |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m Digitalisierung UB Bayreuth |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020652747&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| 883 | 1 | |8 1\p |a cgwrk |d 20201028 |q DE-101 |u https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk | |
| 943 | 1 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-020652747 | |
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1817681160148353024 |
|---|---|
| adam_text |
CONTENTS
Preface
v
1.
Introduction
1
1.1
History
. 1
1.2
The Lay-Out
. 3
1.3
Concepts and Definitions
. 3
1.3.1
The problem: What is downscaling and why
downscaling
. 3
1.3.1.1
What is downscaling?
. 3
1.3.1.2
Why downscaling?
. 8
1.3.2
Notations
. 10
1.3.3
Definitions
. 12
1.3.4
Anomalies in
ESD
. 18
1.4
Further Reading
. 19
1.5
Examples
. 19
1.6
Exercises
. 20
2.
Downscaling Strategies
22
2.1
Different Approaches
. 22
2.1.1
Dynamical downscaling
. 22
2.2
Philosophy Behind
ESD
. 24
2.2.1
Considerations
. 26
2.2.2
A physics-inspired view
. 32
2.2.3
A purely statistical view
. 34
2.3
What is "Skillful Scale"?
. 34
2.4
Further Reading
. 39
2.4.1
Dynamical versus empirical-statistical downscaling
39
viii Empirical-Statistical Downscaling
2.5
Examples
. 41
2.5.1
Geostrophic balance
. 41
2.5.2
Basic
preprocessing
. 41
2.6
Exercises.
44
3.
Predictors and Preprocessing
45
3.1
Choosing Predictors
. 45
3.2
Circulation Indices
. 46
3.2.1
Stationarity
. 48
3.2.2
The North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO)
. 49
3.2.3
Autocorrelation and degrees of freedom
. 49
3.2.4
Empirical orthogonal functions
. 50
3.2.5
Varieties of EOF analysis
. 57
3.2.5.1
Rotated EOFs
. 57
3.2.6
Complex and frequency-domain EOFs
. 58
3.2.6.1
Complex EOFs
. 58
3.2.6.2
Frequency-domain EOFs
. 59
3.2.6.3
Extended EOFs
. 59
3.2.6.4
Mixed-field and common EOFs
. 59
3.2.7
EOF in
ESD
. 60
3.3
Further Reading
. 61
3.4
Examples
. 62
3.4.1
Basic EOF analysis
. 62
3.4.2
Mixed-field EOFs
. 62
3.4.3
Extended EOFs
. 63
3.5
Exercises
. 64
4.
Linear Techniques
67
4.1
Introduction
. 67
4.2
Linear Multivariate Methods
. 69
4.3
Regression
. 70
4.3.1
Multivariate regression models
. 71
4.4
Canonical Correlation Analysis
. 73
4.4.1
Classical CCA
. 73
4.4.1.1
Linear relationships from the model
based on CCA
. 75
4.5
Singular Vectors
. 76
4.6
Further Reading
. 78
Contents ¡x
4.7
Examples
. 7§
4.7.1
CCA.
80
4.8
Exercises
. 84
5.
Nonlinear Techniques
85
5.1
Introduction
. 85
5.2
The Analog Model
. 85
5.2.1
Caveats
. 86
5.3
Classification Methods
. 90
5.3.1
Cluster analysis
. 91
5.4
Neural Nets
. 93
5.5
Further Reading
. 93
5.6
Examples
. 96
5.6.1
Analog model (Fig.
5.8) . 96
5.6.2
Clustering
. 97
5.7
Exercises
. 97
6.
Predictions and Diagnostics
98
6.1
Common Notations and Definitions
. 98
6.2
Predictions
. 99
6.3
Trends
. 100
6.3.1
Test for trends
. 101
6.3.1.1
Trend-testing based on Spearman
rank coefficient
. 101
6.3.1.2
Mann-Kendall rank correlation
statistics
. 101
6.3.1.3
Trend testing based on student's i-test
. 102
6.4
Diagnostics
. 102
6.5
Statistical Inference
. 103
6.5.1
Confidence intervals for rejection
. 103
6.5.2
Student's i-test
. 104
6.5.3
F-statistics
. 104
6.6
Quality Control
.
1°5
6.7
Model Skill
. 108
6.8
Evaluation Techniques
.
Ю8
6.8.1
Anomalous correlation
.
Ю9
6.8.2
The R2 score
.
109
6.8.3
Root-mean-square-error
.
HO
χ
Empirical-Statistical Downscaling
6.8.4
Representative statistical distributions
.
Ill
6.9
Cross-Validation
.
Ill
6.10
Further Reading
. 113
6.11
Examples (Fig.
6.7). 113
6.11.1
Illustration of cross-validation
. 113
6.11.2
Using
ESD
to validate cyclone counts
. 114
6.11.3
ESD
to reconstruct historical climate records
. . 116
6.11.4
The
ob
j
DS-
function
. 116
6.11.5
Prediction pattern
. 118
6.11.6
Simple trend-fit
. 120
6.11.7
Scatter plot and correlation
. 120
6.12
Exercises
. 120
7.
Shortcomings and Limitations
122
7.1
Level of Variability
. 124
7.2
Model Stationarity
. 125
7.2.1
"Perfect model" simulation
. 126
7.2.2
''Historical" simulation
. 126
7.2.3
Minimizing risk of nonstationarity
. 127
7.2.4
Consistency
. 128
7.2.5
Take-home messages
. 130
7.3
Examples
. 131
7.4
Exercises
. 133
8.
Reducing Uncertainties
134
8.1
Cascading Uncertainties
. 134
8.2
De-
Trending in the Calibration
. 136
8.3
Using Different Predictands
. 138
8.4
Optimal Number of Predictors
. 138
8.5
Trends versus Time Slices
. 139
8.6
Domain Choices
. 141
8.7
Spatial Coherence
. 142
8.8
Projection of EOFs
. 144
8.9
The Common EOF Frame
. 144
8.9.1
Adjustment and bias corrections
. 146
8.10
Further Reading
. 146
8.11
The Example Illustrating Huth's Paradox
. 148
8.12
Exercises
. 148
Contents xi
9.
Downscaling
Extremes
and PDFs
149
9.1
Outliers and Extremes
. 149
9.2
Robustness and Resistance
. 150
9.2.1
Estimators
. 151
9.3
Probability Density Functions
. 151
9.3.1
What is probability distribution and why
use it?
. 151
9.3.2
Normal/Gaussian distribution
. 152
9.3.3
The exponential distribution
. 153
9.3.4
Gamma distribution
. 154
9.4
Extreme Values
. 156
9.4.1
iid-test
. 158
9.5
Downscaling Extreme Indices
. 160
9.5.1
Generalized linear models
. 160
9.5.1.1
Maximum likelihood estimation
. 161
9.6
Downscaling PDFs
. 162
9.6.1
Downscaling PDFs for temperature
. 163
9.6.2
Downscaling PDFs for daily precipitation
. 163
9.7
Further Reading
. 168
9.8
Examples
. 169
9.8.1
iid-test
. 169
9.8.2
Downscaling PDFs for normal distribution
. 169
9.8.3
Downscaling PDFs exponential distribution
. . . 170
9.9
Exercises
. 172
10.
Weather Generator
173
10.1
Weather Generator
. 174
10.2
Richardson Type
WG
for Precipitation
. 175
10.3
Downscaling Based on
WG
. 176
10.4
Examples
. 177
10.4.1
Coin-flipping
. 177
10.5
Exercises
.
!77
11.
Implementing
ESD 179
11.1
Numerical Tools
.
179
11.1.1
R
.
I79
11.1.1.1
clim.pact
.
179
11.1.1.2
Rclim
181
xii
Empirical—Statistical Downscaling
11.1.2
SDSM
. 181
11.1.3
ClimateExplorer
. 181
11.1.4
ENSEMBLE-S2D
. 181
11.2
Gridding the Results
. 182
11.2.1
Kriging
. 182
11.2.2
Residual kriging
. 182
11.2.3
GIS-packages
. 186
Acknowledgments
188
Appendix
189
References
201
Index
213 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Benestad, Rasmus E. Hanssen-Bauer, Inger Chen, Deliang |
| author_facet | Benestad, Rasmus E. Hanssen-Bauer, Inger Chen, Deliang |
| author_role | aut aut aut |
| author_sort | Benestad, Rasmus E. |
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| dewey-full | 551.601/5118 |
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| dewey-ones | 551 - Geology, hydrology, meteorology |
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| dewey-search | 551.601/5118 |
| dewey-sort | 3551.601 45118 |
| dewey-tens | 550 - Earth sciences |
| discipline | Geologie / Paläontologie Geographie |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV036735163 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-06T09:03:57Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9789812819123 9812819126 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2009275106 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-020652747 |
| oclc_num | 637385120 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-703 DE-83 |
| owner_facet | DE-703 DE-83 |
| physical | XII, 215 S. Ill., graph. Darst. 24 cm |
| publishDate | 2008 |
| publishDateSearch | 2008 |
| publishDateSort | 2008 |
| publisher | World Scientific |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Benestad, Rasmus E. Verfasser aut Empirical statistical downscaling Rasmus E. Benestad, Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Deliang Chen New Jersey [u.a.] World Scientific 2008 XII, 215 S. Ill., graph. Darst. 24 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Literaturverz. S. 201 - 121 Klimaänderung Mathematisches Modell Climatic changes Mathematical models Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd rswk-swf Statistisches Modell (DE-588)4121722-6 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Klima (DE-588)4031170-3 gnd rswk-swf Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s DE-604 Klima (DE-588)4031170-3 s Statistisches Modell (DE-588)4121722-6 s 1\p DE-604 Hanssen-Bauer, Inger Verfasser aut Chen, Deliang Verfasser aut Digitalisierung UB Bayreuth application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020652747&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Benestad, Rasmus E. Hanssen-Bauer, Inger Chen, Deliang Empirical statistical downscaling Klimaänderung Mathematisches Modell Climatic changes Mathematical models Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd Statistisches Modell (DE-588)4121722-6 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Klima (DE-588)4031170-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4164199-1 (DE-588)4121722-6 (DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4031170-3 |
| title | Empirical statistical downscaling |
| title_auth | Empirical statistical downscaling |
| title_exact_search | Empirical statistical downscaling |
| title_full | Empirical statistical downscaling Rasmus E. Benestad, Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Deliang Chen |
| title_fullStr | Empirical statistical downscaling Rasmus E. Benestad, Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Deliang Chen |
| title_full_unstemmed | Empirical statistical downscaling Rasmus E. Benestad, Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Deliang Chen |
| title_short | Empirical statistical downscaling |
| title_sort | empirical statistical downscaling |
| topic | Klimaänderung Mathematisches Modell Climatic changes Mathematical models Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd Statistisches Modell (DE-588)4121722-6 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Klima (DE-588)4031170-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Klimaänderung Mathematisches Modell Climatic changes Mathematical models Statistisches Modell Klima |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020652747&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT benestadrasmuse empiricalstatisticaldownscaling AT hanssenbaueringer empiricalstatisticaldownscaling AT chendeliang empiricalstatisticaldownscaling |