Conflict, complexity and mathematical social science:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Bingley
Emerald
2010
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Contributions to conflict management, peace economics and development
15 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references |
| Beschreibung: | XV, 270 S. Ill. 24 cm |
Internformat
MARC
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804143347593379840 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Conflict, complexity and mathematical social science
Autor: Burt, Gordon
Jahr: 2010
CONTENTS
FOREWORD xiii
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS jcv
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW 1
Overview of the Chapters 3
Set theory and social reality 3
Mathematics, logic, artificial intelligence and ordinary language 3
Possibility and probability: Value, conflict and choice 4
Theory, evidence and reality: The mean and median
ideals of competing groups 5
Social design, ethics and the amount of value 6
Change, multiple-entity systems and complexity 6
Mathematical psychology 7
Models of choice 8
Mathematical sociology 8
Mathematical political science and game theory 9
The mathematical economics of social participation: Complexity 10
Life and history: The speculative pursuit of value 10
World history: The growth and distribution dynamics
of power, truth and value 11
Debating the mathematical science approach to international
relations 12
CHAPTER 2 SET THEORY AND SOCIAL REALITY 13
The Elementary Concepts of Set Theory 13
Set Theory Models of Social Reality 15
Set Theory Models of History and Literature 19
Local history 21
Models of history: England in the fourteenth century 21
Set Theory, Structures and Mathematics 24
Reality and Realism 24
yi CONTENTS
CHAPTER 3 MATHEMATICS, LOGIC, ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE AND ORDINARY LANGUAGE 29
Ordinary Language 30
Early lexical development in children 30
Ordinary language and non-mathematical discourse 31
Truth-intending and non-truth-intending discourses 32
Meaning and precision... meaninglessness and vagueness 33
Linguistics: The study of ordinary language 34
Mathematical Inquiry and Completed Mathematical Knowledge 35
The process of mathematical inquiry: An elementary
illustration 36
Completed mathematical knowledge: Concepts, propositions
and contexts 37
Completed mathematical knowledge: Proofs 39
Mathematical Logic 41
Propositional calculus 42
Predicate calculus 44
The relationship between a language and a reality 45
Artificial Intelligence 47
CHAPTER 4 POSSIBILITY AND PROBABILITY:
VALUE, CONFLICT AND CHOICE 51
Possibility and Probability 52
The set of all possibilities and the set of all propositions 52
Probability theory 54
Value, Conflict and Choice 55
Value and choice 55
Multidimensional value: The probability of consensus or
conflict 56
Social choice and social welfare 58
The condorcet majority principle, the de borda ranking
principle and the welfare principle 58
Arrow s list of principles and his general impossibility theorem 60
The probability of things going wrong 60
Success Equals Power Plus Luck 61
The probability of success and power 62
Success versus decisiveness: Three voting rules for the european
council of ministers 63
Contents vu
CHAPTER 5 THEORY, EVIDENCE AND REALITY: THE
MEAN AND MEDIAN IDEALS OF COMPETING GROUPS 67
Theory, Evidence and Reality 68
A priori probability and empirical probability 70
Error and approximation 71
Evidence about reality 73
Continuous Spaces and Single-peaked or Euclidean Preferences 74
The median ideal and the mean ideal 74
The distribution of ideal points: Representative democracy as social
choice 76
The weighted mean ideal and power 77
The Median Ideals of Competing Groups 79
The legislative median and partisan policy 80
How does the overall median relate to the component medians? 82
CHAPTER 6 SOCIAL DESIGN, ETHICS AND THE
AMOUNT OF VALUE 87
Ethics and the Utilitarian Social Welfare Function 88
The Amount of Value 89
The individual and social value of objects and attributes 90
Limitations on the value of a social design 91
Social Value Functions on a Continuous Space 92
Single-peaked functions 93
Distance functions (symmetric about the peak) 94
The modulus function 94
The quadratic function 95
A Practical Application 98
Ten dimensions of educational design 98
One dimension 99
The results 99
The average student: What does the mean function look like? 100
Differences between students 101
Three different students 101
Students have different ideals 101
What do the individual utility functions look like? 102
Implications for educational design 103
Limitations on the mean value 103
The social tension in the best option 103
viii CONTENTS
How else might we define best ? 104
To increase satisfaction, increase choice 104
CHAPTER 7 CHANGE, MULTIPLE-ENTITY
SYSTEMS AND COMPLEXITY 107
Single-entity, Multiple-entity and Composite Systems 108
Information Systems 109
A process as a simple sequence HO
Symbol processing and symbol processors HI
Generative processes HI
Behavioural Systems H-
The trajectories of a single entity in one-dimensional space 112
The trajectory of multiple interacting entities 114
Multiple entities with non-identical probabilities 116
Empirical evidence of within-group heterogeneity of
propensities 118
The most probable trajectory of a macro parameter 120
A toy example 121
Quantitative sociodynamics 122
-
CHAPTER 8 MATHEMATICAL PSYCHOLOGY 123
Psychology 124
Mathematical Psychology 124
Theory, Evidence and Reality 127
Measurement theory 127
Mathematics, methodology and statistics 129
Model selection 129
Models of individuals and models of sets of individuals 129
Models of Life and Models of Single Steps in Life 130
Perception and psychophysics 132
Perception of the duration of time 133
Weber s law 133
The perception of colour 134
Imitation: Response reproduction 134
Psychometrics: Individuals, situations and events 134
Multi-dimensional individuals and situations 136
Naturalistic and controlled allocation of individuals to
situations 137
Contents ix
CHAPTER 9 MODELS OF INDIVIDUAL CHOICE 139
The Nature of the Choice Process 140
Choice as the outcome of a reasoning process 140
Choice as the outcome of a mathematical reasoning process 140
Inexact reasoning, heuristics and error 141
Choice: The establishment of the options and their value 141
Classical Models of Choice 143
Static, single-unit models 143
The yes-or-no threshold model 144
The probabilistic threshold model 144
The variable experience model 145
The three-state threshold model (one stimulus) 145
The three-state threshold model (two stimuli) 147
Signal detection theory 148
Hypothesis testing 151
Bayesian hypothesis testing 153
Statistical decision theory 154
More than two options: Classification into three classes 755
Static, multi-unit models 156
Dynamic, single-unit models 156
A threshold model of procrastination 156
Stochastic general recognition theory 157
Dynamic, multi-unit models 158
Limitations to the Value of Individual Choice 159
CHAPTER 10 MATHEMATICAL SOCIOLOGY 161
Background to Mathematical Sociology 162
People Participation in Social Activities 163
Life: A trajectory through social structure 163
Family and kinship 164
Leisure and holidays 166
Shopping 167
Work and the organisation: Rules or choice? 167
The classical economic versus behavioural theories
of the firm 167
Rationality, rules, religion or randomness? 168
A social process 169
Travel 169
CONTENTS
x
Cultural Participation in Social Activities ]7°
Religious conversion as a trajectory of value HO
The trajectories of value in cultural stories HI
Technology development and the trajectory of value 172
Population flows of participation and performance in education 173
The case study 4
Participation and population models of propensity dynamics 174
The criterion for participation and its stochastic dynamics 177
The Conceptual Framework H8
CHAPTER 11 MATHEMATICAL POLITICAL
SCIENCE AND GAME THEORY 181
18
7
Game Theory
The simple game 1 2
Adding Complexity to Game Theory 183
Simulation: The Evolution of Cooperation 185
Is cooperation rational? 185
Can one learn to be cooperative? 186
Is cooperation successful in a diverse society? 186
Is cooperation successful in evolutionary terms? 186
Politics 188
Some general remarks about the state 188
The governing process 189
The representation process 189
CHAPTER 12 THE MATHEMATICAL ECONOMICS
OF SOCIAL PARTICIPATION; COMPLEXITY 193
Micro-Economics 194
The individual consumer and prices 194
The preference relation on the option set 195
The selection function 196
The constraint 196
The individual firm and prices 198
Aggregating consumer demand and firm supply: Price dynamics 198
Financial Economics and the Efficient Market Hypothesis 200
International macro-economics 200
Financial economics 202
The change in the monetary value of an investment over time 203
Contents xi
Empirical challenges to the efficient market hypothesis 204
Complexity Theory Models of Financial Markets 205
Herd behaviour, bubbles and crashes 206
A comparative evaluation of competing models of financial
markets 207
What patterns are exhibited by the data? 208
What statistical models would generate the patterns found
in the data? 209
What theory-based models would generate the patterns
found in the data? 209
CHAPTER 13 LIFE AND HISTORY. THE
SPECULATIVE PURSUIT OF VALUE 211
Investigations of Social Well-being 212
Economic Growth and Social Well-being 212
Participation in the Social Structure and Social Well-being 213
Temporal and Social Comparative Utility functions 215
The Limitations on Truth and the Speculative Pursuit of Value 218
CHAPTER 14 WORLD HISTORY: THE GROWTH
AND DISTRIBUTION DYNAMICS OF POWER,
TRUTH AND VALUE 221
The Growth and Distribution of a System in Space and Time 222
The physical universe: Growth and distribution 222
The biosphere: Growth and distribution 223
The growth of human society 224
Humans and their natural environment 225
The distribution dynamics of power, truth and value 226
State, Power, Geography, Culture, Arms and War 227
Power: Resources and relationships 227
States, sovereignty and territories 230
Geographic proximity and interaction: Cooperation
or conflict? 230
Cultural proximity and interaction: Cooperation or conflict? 232
The democratic peace 233
Should we really force them to be free? 235
Arms and war 236
Arms races: Social reciprocation processes 236
CONTENTS
Arms production: Data, Models and Coefficients - The Case
of the United States 237
Explaining limited conflicts 239
Representing the Complete Cast of Actors on the World Stage 240
Spheres of Action 241
Criteria for Action 24*.
CHAPTER 15 DEBATING THE MATHEMATICAL
SCIENCE APPROACH TO INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS 243
The Debate 244
Debate and the Representation of a Subject 246
Meeting the Points Raised 248
Philosophy 248
Ethics and value 248
Power 249
The impact of power on ethical value 251
Ethics, identity and social ideals 25.
The social production of ideals 255
State-centrism and politics-centrism: The structure of
social actors and the structure of social actions 256
7
REFERENCES 261
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| spelling | Burt, Gordon Verfasser aut Conflict, complexity and mathematical social science Gordon Burt Bingley Emerald 2010 XV, 270 S. Ill. 24 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Contributions to conflict management, peace economics and development 15 Includes bibliographical references Social conflict / Mathematical models Mathematisches Modell Sozialer Konflikt (DE-588)4055747-9 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Sozialer Konflikt (DE-588)4055747-9 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s DE-604 Contributions to conflict management, peace economics and development 15 (DE-604)BV021534543 15 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020623906&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
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