Hladni mir: Kavkaz i Kosovo
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Buch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Beograd
Čigoja Štampa
2009
Prag Radio Slobodna Evropa |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Abstract |
| Beschreibung: | Zsfassung in engl. Sprache u.d.T.: Moving towards a "cold peace" |
| Beschreibung: | 603 S. 24 cm |
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CONCLUSION
-
MOVING TOWARD
A "COLD PEACE"
Every generation needs a new revolution.
-
Thomas Jefferson.
1.
The "outsiders"
-
semi-integrated entities, and their role in
international relations
Humanity is not heading toward a new cold war
-
at least, not one resem¬
bling those waged since World War II
-
because Russia is neither capable of
conducting it nor eager to jeopardize its progress toward becoming part of the
international community. However, the great powers are far from reaching a con¬
sensus on which fundamental values and principles a future international system
should be based. Such a void leads to instability and friction, first and foremost
between Russia and the West. In that respect, it can be said that the world is
heading, if it has not already arrived, toward a "cold peace"
-
a kind of "post-
modem war" waged not necessarily with arms, but by other means. That is one
of the conclusions of the book: "Cold Peace: Caucasus and Kosovo" by
Dragan
S
taviján
i n.
This kind of war necessarily reveals more about the parties' limitations than
their abilities
-
such as the Russian paradox wherein the less powerful it beco¬
mes, the more it flexes its muscles. The "soft power" of the
EU,
similarly, looks
more and more like a weakness and less like the enlightened ideals of the world's
first post-modern community. The United States, too, has shown its vulnerabi¬
lity
-
as has China, despite its impressive economic growth. Finally, this "cold
peace" or "post-modern war" reveals the emptiness of global legal mechanisms
that function without real democratic accountability
-
without reflecting the real
will of people seeking self-determination or the legitimacy of a regime's claim to
preserve its territorial integrity.
Russia's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia has consequences that
reach far beyond its invasion of Georgia in August
2008.
However, the recogniti¬
on has changed virtually nothing on the ground, given the fact that Moscow has
always enjoyed near-full control over the two breakaway regions. Internationally,
Nicaragua remains the only country to recognize the territories. Although rela¬
tions between Moscow and the West deteriorated sharply in the aftermath of the
Russian invasion, the war cannot be said to be a cause. Rather, it's a symbol of the
friction that built up in the events that led to the war. The war signaled Russia's
demand that it be treated on an equal footing with the West, not as a junior par¬
tner. At the same time, the war strengthened the isolationist ideology in Moscow
Conclusion
-
Moving Toward a "Cold Peace"
557
which will shape its domestic scene as well as its relations with other countries
for years to come.
Therefore, Russia's recognition was not enough to resolve the status of So¬
uth Ossetia and Abkhazia. To the contrary, it has only made the problem more
acute. From a legal point of view, the two Georgian breakaway provinces cannot
expect to be integrated into the international community. At the same time, Tbilisi
can hardly bank on reintegrating its separatist regions, at least for the foreseeable
future. It means that the former frozen conflict
-
dramatically thawed last year
-
is now returning to an even deeper freeze with no particular prospects of being
solved. Within this vicious cycle, given the lack of any compromise, the only
alternative to this new, deeper freeze is another thaw
-
and, indeed, the threat of a
new conflict continues to loom over the South Caucasus. "Solving" the problem,
therefore, will involve either postponing it or triggering a new crisis.
It is a second frozen conflict, however, that will serve as the litmus test of
developments in the South Caucasus
-
Nagorno-Karabkah, whose peace process
has proven the most complicated in the region.
One side
-
Azerbaijan
-
insists on preserving its territorial integrity at any
price. The other
-
Nagorno-Karabakh, with support from Armenia
-
is bent on
full independence. It's a model for which no solution can be found. For either side
to have its demands met would mean the widening of existing divides with the
threat of a new war. It is, in the classic parlance, a zero-sum game, which means
that the victory of one side is only temporary, because it will evoke the discontent
of the other and create fertile soil for new clashes.
In history, of course, there is almost not a single example of a state volun¬
tarily relinquishing a part of its territory. Therefore, any state's attempt to quell
secessionist aspirations of individual ethnic groups should involve a long-term
strategy of nurturing a social climate in which citizens, regardless of ethnic ori¬
gin, will see the country in which they live as a genuine homeland
-
not as the
realm of an occupying force.
Once a state secedes, it becomes too late for such long-term, sustainable
solutions that serve the interests of all. One such example is Kosovo. Serbia's
invocation of international law in bolstering its case that Kosovo should rema¬
in part of its territory is, at this stage, fruitless. Even if Belgrade succeeded in
winning the support of the international community in preserving its international
territory, it would simply re-inherit an unstable region inhabited by disenchanted
and disloyal ethnic Albanian citizens who would be ready to do whatever needed
to lay the ground for a fresh succession.
National interests and power configurations very often rise above principles
in the real world. However, that is not the only way to resolve issues. Democracy
is not a magic wand, but it does create opportunities for solving the issue of sece-
558
Cold Peace: Caucasus and Kosovo
ssion in an
utterly different, wider context in which the two sides are not necessa¬
rily enemies, but rather partners benefiting from one another's prosperity.
Of course, the world would collapse into an anarchic coup of
1,300
states
if every secessionist movement was suddenly granted independence. Kosovo's
unilateral declaration of independence, which has so far been recognized by
62
states, was quickly followed by a similar move by South Ossetia and Abkha¬
zia. Both represent a new phenomenon in international relations
-
the emergen¬
ce of political entities who are not fully integrated into international institutions
(most notably the United Nations) because of a lack of consensus among key
world powers. The appearance of these "outsiders" could foment tensions not
only between these entities and the states they seceded from. It could also prove
a source of new friction between major powers who could use unresolved ethnic
disputes to further their national interests on the global stage.
In current circumstances, the right to independence
-
regardless of what
experts on international law say
-
is in essence a function of real power relation¬
ships in the international system. Western countries insist that Kosovo is a unique
case, and therefore does not establish a precedent for other ethnic conflicts. But
secessionist movements obviously see it different. "If Kosovo can do it, why not
us?" they ask. But as the saying goes, two wrongs don't make a right.
Nonetheless, the mere invocation of international law in attempting to pre¬
serve a state's territorial integrity often sounds very hollow if not underpinned by
a principle of legitimacy
-
or, more precisely, by confidence-building measures
meant to persuade separatist-minded communities to see the state they wish to
secede from as a genuine homeland instead. There is a desperate need for clear
criteria to be defined for creating new states.
One possible approach is the creation of a wider framework for supranatio¬
nal integration, such as the European Union. Despite such a post-modern appro¬
ach to politics, however, the Westphalian principle of national sovereignty still
remains one of the key principles of international relations.
2.
Toward
a multipolar
world
Instead of longing for Kant's "eternal peace" or a post-Westphalian "eroding
sovereignty," it has become more and more obvious that states at the end of the
17th century and the early 18th century did a remarkable job of defending their in¬
terests. Today, power
-
not values
-
remain the key defining mechanism is interna¬
tional relations. Although the process of globalization has had the effect of diluting
somewhat traditional state sovereignty, it has on the flip side laid the groundwork
for growing nationalism, which has returned with a vengeance. Small nations,
which see globalization as synonymous with Westernization and an erasure of all
559
Conclusion
-
Moving Toward a "Cold Peace"
cultural
distinctions,
have fought to preserve their identities by rejecting globa¬
lization or adapting it to local realities. Hence, a new trend has emerged, called
"glocalization". Thus, instead of the "end of history" predicted by Fukuyama
20
years ago, history has returned, as Robert
Kagan
has pointed out.
Russia has defined its national security in terms of "privileged interests" in
its neighborhood
-
meaning first and foremost the indefinite postponement, if not
outright reversal, on NATO enlargement. So what means security for Moscow
automatically means insecurity for the other, much smaller, states in the region.
The West has always faced a dilemma in how to approach Russia, which
embodies a complicated blend of both European culture and Asiatic despotism
-
more of a nuclear-armed, resource-rich third world country than a full-fledged
post-industrial state.
So the key question is: How to contain Russia without "containment?" Do¬
minique
Moisi
offers the following strategy: "Let's engage Russia if we can, but
contain it if we must".
In any case, if Russia continues to use its rising power to meddle in Georgia's
affairs or use energy as leverage to intimidate its neighbors, it may force the co¬
untries in the region to seek protection. Paradoxically, it may also help reunite
the shaken ranks of the West, and primarily the European Union. Those countries
could seek alternative sources of energy, undermining Russia's leverage. That
would leave Moscow's defense mechanisms overstretched, and Russia as a whole
more isolated and far less prosperous. Such a scenario lends credence to Hans
Morgenthau's warning to idealists against imagining that at some point, "the final
curtain would fall, and the game of power politics would no longer be played".
The stance prevails in historiography that the wars of the 20th century were
triggered mainly by ethnic conflicts, economic crises, and the demise of empires.
The ethnic conflicts in the Balkans and the South Caucasus which bubbled up in
the
1990s
following the Soviet collapse resulted in wars. The Great Depression
of the
1930s
was, among other things, a trigger that allowed for Hitler's power
grab. The current economic crisis most probably will not spur a war, but it could
certainly contribute to tensions in already-volatile regions. If China outpaces the
United States economically, some predict the fundamental shift in power could
send the world skidding toward a new conflict
-
for example, if Beijing attempts
to subdue Taiwan by force, or to wage war against India.
There are other areas of concern as well. As Andrei Tsygankov points out,
events that could lead to another Crimean War have yet to be averted. It's time
to learn the lessons of the Russia-Georgia conflict by transforming the security
systems in Europe and Eurasia.
Any new system should include the mutual renunciation of force as a met¬
hod for solving separatist disputes, a temporary moratorium on NATO expansion,
560
Cold Peace; Caucasus and Kosovo
and a comprehensive energy agreement among the major powers that allows for
the cooperative, rather than competitive, exploitation of existing transportation
routes. It could amount to indulging Moscow, which might view this soft appro¬
ach as typical Western weakness and an irresistible opportunity to continue its
assertive policy in Georgia and the international arena. But allowing relations
between Russia and the West to deteriorate any further would only bolster Kre¬
mlin aggression. That, in turn, could hinder the former communist Central and
Eastern European countries from their long-term goals of forming independent
policy, gaining prosperity, and eventually becoming fully integrated in Euro-
Atlantic structures.
As Henry Kissinger and George Shultz continue to argue, the security of
Ukraine and Georgia should be viewed in a context larger than just mechanically
advancing an integrated NATO command to within a few hundred miles of Mos¬
cow. That doesn't, of course, mean appeasing Russia
-
rather, it means searching
for a more creative solution to soften the Kremlin's iron-clad position.
3.
The future of modernity will be determined by the East
A multipolar
concept of world affairs is gaining momentum over the prevai¬
ling unipolar model in which the West
-
specifically, the United States
-
plays the
dominant role. Non-Western powers, primarily Russia and China, are challenging
Washington and Brussels
-
not only in terms of military and economic power, but
also by advancing a different concept of international relations that includes their
own model of democracy.
Washington has been labeled a "New Rome". However, in the future, all
roads will not necessarily lead to Washington, but instead be rerouted to China
and elsewhere in the East.
In an effort to depict liberal democracy as a cover for Western domination,
authoritarian states are striving to present an alternative paradigm authoritarian
democracy. It sounds seductive to some, especially those who now blame
neoli¬
beral
capitalism for the current economic crisis.
In the case of China, authoritarian democracy comes in the form of market
economy combined with a one-party system. Those two elements, so far, succe¬
ssfully coexist. The discrepancy between economic pluralism and political mo¬
nism is not a cause of public friction. Chinese citizens, at this stage, are mostly
consumers who are poised to support the Communist authorities as long as their
standard of living is rising.
However, these consumer citizens-in-waiting could, in the long run, be tran¬
sformed into citizens in the political sense as they grow accustomed to economic
freedom. Chinese citizens might someday soon seek the right to free elections
Conclusion
-
Moving Toward a "Cold Peace"
and multiparty representation
-
something that could abruptly draw a curtain on
the authoritarian capitalism model.
In Russia, a formal multiparty system has essentially been reduced to a one-
party system. It's not a unique case: rale by manipulation which creates the sem¬
blance of democracy by garnering citizens' support in exchange for economic
prosperity
-
support based not on a coherent ideology or shared values, but a
tacit agreement driven by personal interests. Fluctuating oil prices and the global
economic crisis, however, could dramatically undermine this legitimacy base in
Russia.
In the long run, growing prosperity may well produce political liberalism.
But how long is the long run? As Robert
Kagan
noted, it may be too long to have
any strategic or geopolitical relevance. In the meantime, the new economic power
of the autocracies has translated into real, usable geopolitical power on the world
stage.
Historically, modernity has come from the West. But as Timothy Garton Ash
suggests, the future of freedom now depends on new notions of modernity evol¬
ving mainly in the East. Globalization, conceived as a mainly Western project, is
gaining a distinctly non-Western flavor.
If China realizes its potential and becomes a kind of countrywide Hong Kong,
it may surpass the United States. Even if Washington is no longer dominant and has
been surmounted economically by China, however, it may still play a crucial role
in international relations. Namely, the existing international architecture railroaded
through by the United States following World War II will still provide the mechani¬
sm for China's development and projection of global power.
In the end, irrespective of criticism of "American imperialism and hege¬
mony," the fact of the matter is that the Western/American model of democracy
is an ideal to which many people in the world aspire. It will remain so for years to
come, despite the current crisis of confidence in the
neoliberal
model. America's
global dominance since WW2 has been the result not only of its economic and
military strength, but of the ideas and values that make up the bedrock of U.S.
society.
At the same time, it's not clear if China is capable of laying out a foundation
for an alternative social-political model that would prove attractive on a worldwi¬
de scale. And without that, it can't count on world-leader status, even
ifit
begins
to economically outperform the United States.
China's current and future development depends mainly on Western tech¬
nology and Western consumer markets. The strength of the United States lies in
its huge domestic demands. However, an increasing imbalance is appearing as
a cash-strapped Washington relies on loans from China to cover its budget and
other deficits.
562
Cold Peace: Caucasus and Kosovo
The EU,
in a Similar Catch-22, depends on imports of energy from Russia.
At the same time, Russia's welfare depends on the European market, which ex¬
ports the lion's share of its energy, and provides essential investment and techno¬
logy as well.
Global trouble spots
-
Afghanistan, North Korea, Iran
-
cannot be solved
without common cooperation between the West, Russia, and China. This suggests
that the world is intractably intertwined. Instead of geostrategic jousting, major
powers need to come together on key issues, and quickly. Current calls for "mul-
tipolarity" may mean only a reapportionment of powers, rather than an agreement
on key principles and values. In such a case, the world find itself sliding toward
an unpredictable course of events, where victories are short-term and Pyrrhic.
National interests are critical to the functioning of the very complex world we
live in. But it is not acceptable that interests are shown to be superior to values,
and pragmatism to ideals.
Of course, if the future isn't determined, it's up for grabs. The belief in the
enlightened notion of common sense and linear progress is, in practice, constantly
challenged. The most dramatic examples are atrocities committed by the Hitler
and Stalin regimes. Liberalism prevailed then. It was not, however, a triumph of
liberal ideas alone. As Robert
Kagan
points out, many battles have had to be fo¬
ught in order to secure those victories that are once again disputed. The Western
liberal model of democracy now faces a challenge
-
in the form of a new model
whose very basis, because of the economic crisis, lies in questioning the old mo¬
del. It is possible that, retreating from the prevailing
neoliberal
model, the world
may revert toward a kind of "welfare state", or state capitalism with elements of
corporatism and authoritarian democracy.
If democracy assumes a set of procedures and norms, then even dictators
can utilize it to come to power
-
Hitler being the most dramatic example. Howe¬
ver, if democracy is to truly be a synonym for liberty and equal opportunity, it
cannot be achieved without a liberal component. For that reason, the very term
"authoritarian democracy" is inherently contradictory
-
the direct opposite of
"democracy".
Regardless of what label is eventually attributed, there is one model which
is the most humane and efficient system mankind has ever created. It is the model
which is politically based in liberal democracy, and economically based on mar¬
ket principles
-
but without the market fundamentalism and Hobbesian internati¬
onal arena where "a big fish necessarily swallows a smaller one", and monopolies
are acquired through political loyalty.
For that reason, a liberal democracy
-
despite its limits
-
is the only sur¬
viving form of political legitimacy. After all, its limits are, in fact, one of the
sources of strength in a liberal democracy. Unlike various Utopian models of an
Conclusion
-
Moving Toward a "Cold Peace"
ideal
society which end in dreadful crimes and destitution, the vigor of a libe¬
ral democracy is demonstrated not in providing "final solutions" but in fueling
a permanent quest for them through reflection, dialogue, and the action of an
overwhelming majority of citizens to solve current problems in a way that doesn't
hobble future generations but instead creates conditions to help them face the
challenges that arise.
The strength of a liberal democracy is also in the hope it fosters. This is why
dictatorship preys on hope. Fortunately, people persevere because of the hope
they hold in democratic, free society, even in the most difficult of times. For that
reason, Fareed Zakaria is correct in saying that a liberal democracy can go from
being a rule to a lifestyle.
564
Cold Peace: Caucasus and Kosovo
Sadržaj
UMESTO PREDGOVORA
. 15
UVOD
. 19
1.
Povratak istorije
. 19
2.
Nafta i gas kao političko orade
. 22
3.
„Planina jezika"
-
tempirana bomba
. 23
4.
Rusko oponašanje NATO-a
. 24
5.
Da li je Kosovo presedan?
. 26
6.
Autoritarni izazov Rusije i Kine
. 29
Prvi deo:
SVET NAKON ZAVRŠETKA HLADNOG RATA
RUSIJA I ZAPAD OD KRAJA HLADNOG RATA
. 37
1.
Kraj iluzija
. 37
2.
Da li je Gorbačov izigran?
. 40
3.
Korišćenje slabosti Rusije
. 44
4.
Od srodnih duša do rivala
. 48
5.
Antiraketni štit
. 53
6.
Irak, Kosovo
-
„Koalicija protivnih"
. 53
7.
Podozrivost Rusije prema revolucijama u „koloru"
. 54
PUTINOV PROJEKAT
. 57
1.
„Slovenofili" i „zapadnjaci"
. 57
2.
Kompleks „branioca"
. 58
3.
Ruski put
. 62
4.
Dolazak
Putina na
vlast
. 62
5.
Putinov milenijumski manifest
. 66
6.
Zakon vladara
. 68
7.
Neograničena moć
„Silovika"
. 69
8.
„Upravljana demokratija"
. 69
9.
Imidž „opkoljene tvrđave"
. 71
10.
Sindrom „izgubljenog carstva"
. 75
11.
Suverena jednakost
. 76
12.
Revizionizam u funkciji restauracije
. 78
13.
Konsensualna hegemonija
. 78
14.
Rusija kao „istinska Evropa"
. 82
15.
„Demokratizatorstvo" Zapada
. 84
16.
Neocaristički autoritarizam
. 85
17.
„Depolitizacija" politike
. 86
18.
Država kao preduzeće
. 88
19.
Depolitizacija kao hiperpolitizacija
. 90
20.
Međunacionalni odnosi
. 93
Sadržaj
21.
Slabosti putinizma
.94
Drugi
deo:
RAT U GRUZIJI
GRUZIJA I SVET UOČI RATA
.99
1.
Kontrolisanje nestabilnosti
.99
2.
„Kad je rat unapred planiran izgovor se lako nađe"
. 102
3.
Pregovarački format
. 107
4.
Jačanje gruzijske armije
. 108
5.
Put ka ratu
. 109
6.
Priprema pozornice za rat
. 112
7.
Protivrečna uloga Zapada
. 114
RAT U GRUZIJI
. 117
1.
Kako je počeo rat?
. 119
2.
Šta se zaista desilo u noći
7.
avgusta?
. 123
3.
Vojne snage
. 125
4.
Mirovni plan
.130
5.
„Velike sile ne vrše samoubistvo zbog malih"
. 132
HUMANITARNI ASPEKT
-
ŽRTVE I ZLOČINI
.135
1.
Stradanje civila u Cinvaliju
. 135
2.
Stradanje
Gruzina
.,.137
3.
Tužba Gruzije Međunarodnom sudu pravde
. 139
4.
Neizvesna sudbina izbeglica
.140
POSLEDICE
RATA U GRUZIJI
. 142
1.
„Svi smo mi
Gruzini"
. 142
2.
Ruski građani najveći gubitnici?
. 144
3.
Oživljavanje straha od „ruskog
medvěda"
. 147
4.
Rusko uzvraćanje u Južnoj Americi
. 149
5.
Bliski istok
. 151
6.
Izbor Zapada: Rusija ili „virtuelni projekat"?
. 152
7.
Novi koncept bezbednosti
. 154
KO JE ODGOVORAN ZA RAT
. 156
1.
NATO napad na Srbiju kao izgovor
. 159
2.
Sličnosti NATO i ruske intervencije
. 165
3.
Razlike NATO i ruske intervencije
. 166
4.
SSSR
-
Jugoslavija
. 167
DA LI JE ZAPAD KRIV ŠTO NIJE SPREČIO INTERVENCIJU RUSIJE
. 168
1.
Istorijat odnosa Zapada prema Gruziji
. 168
2.
Američka pomoć Gruziji
. 170
3.
Da li SAD stoje iza napada Gruzije?
. 171
4.
Protivrečne poruke Zapada
. 173
Hladni mir: Kavkaz i Kosovo
5. „Sindrom
Čemberlen"
. 177
6.
Humanitarna pomoć Gruziji
. 182
7.
No
bussines
as usual
. 184
8.
Povratak na staru ulogu NATO
. 186
9.
Ograničenost instrumenata Zapada
. 191
10.
Sprečiti „podgrevanje fantazija"
. 192
Treći deo:
KAVKAZ-KOSOVO
„BALKANIZACIJA" KAVKAZA
. 197
1.
„Zarobljenici Kavkaza"
. 197
2.
Četiri ruska osvajanja Gruzije
. 198
3.
Nacije u senci imperija na Kavkazu
. 201
4.
Zakasnelo buđenje nacija ili „četvrta vremenska zona"
. 202
5.
Nezavisni bez svoje volje
. 205
6.
Nacionalno po formi, socijalizam u suštini
. 206
7.
„Matrjoška" federalizam izvor sukoba
. 209
8.
Kavkaski identitet kao fikcija
. 211
9.
Sličnosti i razlike
. 212
10.
Duboko ukorenjena trauma
.214
JUŽNA OSETIJA
. 216
1.
Geografija kao sudbina
. 216
2.
„Nezahvalni gosti" Gruzije
. 217
3.
Od problema vodovoda do rata za nezavisnost
. 220
4.
„Kao u Lenjingradu"
. 222
5.
Neúspešní
pregovori devedesetih
. 224
6.
Samo
14
odsto
Oseta
govori gruzijski
. 226
7.
Bekstvo od mira
. 227
8.
Oseti
kao „militarizovane izbeglice"
. 228
ABHÁZIJA
. 230
1.
„Nelojalni podanici" ruskog cara
. 230
2.
Gruzijacija Abhazije
. 233
3.
Gruzijski nacionalizam podstaknut ekologijom
. 234
4.
„Gruzija Gruzinima"
. 235
5.
Početak sukoba devedesetih
. 235
6.
Neúspešní
pregovori
. 237
7.
Leglo krijumčara
. 239
8.
Urušena ekonomija
. 241
9.
Snažna etnička distanca
. 242
10.
Neizvestan provratak gruzijskih izbeglica
. 243
11.
Forsiranje statusa umesto poverenja
. 244
12.
Srljanje u rat
. 246
13.
Nakon rata u avgustu
2008. 248
Sadržaj
13.1.
Asimilacija
preostalih
Gruzina
.248
13.2.
Abházi
strahuju od ruske asimilacije
.251
14.
Internacionalizacija kao jedini put
.252
NAGORNO KARABAH
. 254
1.
Kobna „planinska crna
bašta"
. 254
2.
Nepredvidljiva prošlost
. 255
3.
Od spora oko sovhoza do pogroma
. 256
4.
Rat za Nagorno Karabah
. 260
5.
„Presečen
hieb
se ne može sastaviti"
. 261
6.
Istorijat pregovora
. 262
7.
Zašto Jermenija nije priznala Nagorno Karabah?
. 266
8.
Azerbejdżan
između Rusije i Zapada
. 267
9.
Okreće li Rusija leđa Jermeniji?
. 270
10.
Uloga Turske
.272
10.1.
Zavisi li Turska od Rusije?
.272
10.2.
„Fudbalska diplomatija"
.273
10.3.
Udaljava li se Turska od Zapada?
.275
11.
Energetski koridori
.277
12.
Demokratija u senci gasa i nafte
.277
13.
Zveckanje oružjem
.280
14.
Sadašnji pregovori
.282
14.1.
Rusija kao posrednik
.282
14.2.
Principi iz Helsinkija
.284
15.
Zamrznuta budućnost
.285
PRIDNJESTROVLJE
.289
1.
Identitet „iscrtao" Staljin
.289
2.
„Twitter
revolucija"
.289
3.
Pridnjestrovlje bez priznanja Rusije
.292
4.
Staljinovo i
Hitlerovo
prekrajanje granica
.295
5.
Rusifikacija Pridnjestrovlja
.297
6.
Jezik uzrok sukoba
.298
7.
„Puzeći puč"
.300
8.
Rusija odbija da povuče trupe
.300
9.
Neúspešní
pregovori
.303
10.
Ruske sankcije Moldaviji
. 306
11.
Moldavei
diskriminisana većina
. 307
12.
Novi identitet Pridnjestrovlja
. 308
13.
Pridnjestrovlje: gušenje opozicije i meka krijumčara
. 309
14.
Moldavija
-
najsiromašnija u Evropi
. 311
15.
Moldavija: nezadovoljni „mlađi brat" Rumunuije
. 312
16.
Uspešan
primer
Gagauzije
. 313
17.
„Ostaviti da visi"
. 314
18.
Pridnjestrovlje: „novi
Kaliningrad?"
. 316
'u Hladni mir: Kavkaz i Kosovo
KOSOVO -
PRESEDAN ILI JEDINSTVEN SLUČAJ?
. 319
1.
Proglašenje nezavisnosti Kosova
. 319
2.
„Korektivno (kompenzaciono) otcepljenje"
. 323
3.
Da lije moguća
podela
Kosova?
. 327
4.
Nedorečeni međunarodni principi
. 329
5.
Šest kriterijuma za nezavisnost
. 332
6.
Da lije Kosovo jedinstven slučaj ili presedan?
. 335
7.
Reakcije u bivšem Sovjetskom Savezu
. 338
7.1.
Reakcije u Gruziji
. 341
7.2.
Reakcije u Nagorno Karabahu i
Azerbejdżanu
. 343
7.3.
Reakcije u Pridnjestrovlju i Moldaviji
. 345
7.4.
Paradoksalna savezništva
. 347
8.
Rusko priznavanje Južne Osetije i Abhazije
. 349
9.
Protivrečna pozicija Rusije
. 354
10.
Paralela Kosovo
-
Južna Osetija i
Abházija
. 355
11.
Srbija u nezavidnoj situaciji
. 360
12.
Granice prava na samoopredeljenje
. 362
13.
Transformacija problema
pre rešenja
. 365
Četvti deo:
RIVALSTVO RUSIJE I ZAPADA
EU
-
RUSIJA: BUSINESS
AS USUAL
. 371
1.
Asimetrična međuzavisnost
. 371
2.
Ko od koga više zavisi?
. 374
3.
„Korisni idioti" nekad i sad
. 375
4.
„Istočno partnerstvo"
. 378
5.
„Četiri zajednička prostora"
. 381
6.
„Normativna" hegemonija EU
. 381
7.
Zastoj u strateškom partnerstvu
. 384
ENERGIJA KAO POLITIČKO ORUŽJE
. 387
1.
Naftno prokletstvo
. 387
2.
Energija kao političko oružje tokom Hladnog rata
. 388
3.
Gasna kriza
2009. 392
4.
Hronologija gasnih kriza
2006-2009. 396
5.
EU nastoji da osigura što više izvora
. 397
6.
Ruska politika
podela
unutar EU
. 397
7.
Da lije zavisnost EU od ruske energije mit?
. 400
8.
Može li EU da smanji zavisnost od ruskog gasa?
. 401
9.
Rusija kao preduzeće
. 402
10.
Gubi li Rusija „gasni
rulet?"
. 406
11.
Postoji li alternativa gasovodu preko Ukrajine?
. 410
12.
„Severni tok"
-
„šrederizacija Evrope"
. 411
13.
„Južni tok"
-
takmac „Nabuku"
. 412
Sadržaj
11
14.
Nepoznanice
oko „Nabiika"
.413
15.
„Novi svileni put"
.419
16.
Koridor preko Gruzije
.421
17.
Gaspromov „gasni kalifat"
.424
18.
Turkmenistan
i Kazahstan
-
oslanjanje na Rusiju, flertovanje
s
Zapadom
. 425
19.
Dvostruka strategija Azerbejdžana
.427
20.
Iran
-
vrebanje prilike iz prikrajka
.428
21.
Kina
-
„keš" kao efikasna strategija
.428
22.
EU
-
Rusija: bilateralni kvazi monopol
.429
23.
Alternativni izvori, ili „naftno-gasna diplomatija"
-
bez alternative
.432
PROSTOR BIVŠEG SSSR, CENTRALNA AZIJA, KINA
.435
1.
Pokušaj obnove imperije
.435
2.
Ukrajina kao „mala Rusija"
.437
2.1. Krim -
„ukrajinska Čečenija"
.441
3.
Belorusija između Rusije i EU
.444
4.
Centralna Azija
-
autoritarna bliskost
s
Moskvom
.445
5.
Nadigravanje oko Avganistana
.447
6.
Kazahstan
—
pokušaj ublažavanja ruskog uticaja
.448
7.
Uzbekistanova „Južna Osetija"
.449
8.
Šangajska organizacija
-
novi
Varšavskí
pakt?.
. .451
9.
Ugovor
о
kolektivnoj bezbednosti
.454
10.
Kina i Rusija strateški rivali?
.'.'. 455
PARADOKS RUSKE MOĆI
.'._457
1.
Separatistički pokreti u Rusiji
.457
2.
Ingušetija
.460
3.
Kabardino-Balkarija
.462
4.
Severnokavkaski emirat
.462
5.
Povlađivanje islamskom svetu
.466
6.
Smanjenje stanovništva
.467
7.
Ekonomski problemi
. 468
8.
Tehnološko i vojno zaostajanje
.469
LIBERALNA
1
AUTORITARNA DEMOKRATIJA
.472
1.
Uvod
.472
2.
Obnova izgubljene imperije
.473
3.
Naftna osovina
.474
4.
Legitimitet prosperiteta
.478
5.
Krhka osovina
.479
6.
Da li ekonomski liberalizam vodi ka demokratiji?
.481
7.
Različite teorije međunarodnih odnosa.
.483
7.1.
Realisti
.484
7.2.
Neokonzervativci
.486
7.3.
Liberalni internacionalisti i
radikáli
.488
12
Hladni mir: Kavkaz i Kosovo
8.
„Savez
demokratija"
.491
8.1.
Demokrate svih zemalja ujedinite se
.491
8.2.
Demokratija: Univerzalna vrednost a ne kompetitivna istina
.493
8.3.
Autokrate svih zemalja na okup
.495
8.4.
Moderna „Sveta alijansa"
.497
9.
Globalizacija i nacionalizam
.499
10.
Osiromašenje kroz rast
.499
11.
Jačanje nezapadnih crta globalizacije
.500
12.
Prednosti globalizacije
.503
13.
Da li opada američka moć?
.503
14.
Negiranje da opada američka moć
.507
15.
Kineski izazov
.511
16.
Ekonomska kriza ili kriza sistema?
.514
17.
„Demokratizacija" demokratije
.518
18.
Prednosti i perspektive liberalne demokratije
.519
Peti deo:
KA NOVOM HLADNOM RATU ILI HLADNOM MIRU?
GRUZIJA- KA NOVOM RATU?
.525
1.
Osakaćena infrastruktura
.525
2.
Plišani autoritarizam
.525
3.
Prekasno za kreativna rešenja?
.529
4.
Novi rat na pomolu?
.530
RESETOVANJE ODNOSA SAD RUSIJA
. 535
1.
Pregovori
о
smanjenju naoružanja
. 537
2.
Koristan neprijatelj ili potencijalni partner
. 539
3.
Novi Hladni rat?
. 545
ZAKLJUČAK: KA HLADNOM MIRU
. 549
1.
Krnji entiteti u međunarodnim odnosima
. 549
2.
Ka multipolarnosti
. 551
3.
Sudbina
modernosti
odlučuje se na Istoku
. 553
CONCLUSION
-
MOVING TOWARD A "COLD PEACE"
.557
1.
The "outsiders"
-
semi-integrated entities, and their role in international
relations
.557
2.
Toward
a multipolar
world
.559
3.
The future of modernity will be determined by the East
.561
LITERATURA
.565
TABLE OF CONTENTS
.595
BELEŠKA
О
AUTORU.
603
Sadržaj
1
3 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Štavljanin, Dragan |
| author_facet | Štavljanin, Dragan |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Štavljanin, Dragan |
| author_variant | d š dš |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV036439973 |
| callnumber-first | D - World History |
| callnumber-label | DK509 |
| callnumber-raw | DK509 |
| callnumber-search | DK509 |
| callnumber-sort | DK 3509 |
| callnumber-subject | DK - Russia, Soviet Union, Former Soviet Republics, Poland |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)705484156 (DE-599)BVBBV036439973 |
| format | Book |
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| geographic | Caucasus / Politics and government Kosovo (Republic) / Politics and government / 2008- Kosovo (Republic) / International status Caucasus Politics and government Kosovo (Republic) International status Kosovo (Republic) Politics and government 2008- Kaukasusländer (DE-588)4448813-0 gnd Georgien (DE-588)4022406-5 gnd Kosovo (DE-588)4032571-4 gnd Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Caucasus / Politics and government Kosovo (Republic) / Politics and government / 2008- Kosovo (Republic) / International status Caucasus Politics and government Kosovo (Republic) International status Kosovo (Republic) Politics and government 2008- Kaukasusländer Georgien Kosovo Russland |
| id | DE-604.BV036439973 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-21T11:02:32Z |
| institution | BVB |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-020312342 |
| oclc_num | 705484156 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 |
| physical | 603 S. 24 cm |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publishDateSearch | 2009 |
| publishDateSort | 2009 |
| publisher | Čigoja Štampa Radio Slobodna Evropa |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Štavljanin, Dragan Verfasser aut Hladni mir Kavkaz i Kosovo Dragan Štavljanin Beograd Čigoja Štampa 2009 Prag Radio Slobodna Evropa 603 S. 24 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Zsfassung in engl. Sprache u.d.T.: Moving towards a "cold peace" Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovič 1952- (DE-588)122188926 gnd rswk-swf Politik Ost-West-Konflikt (DE-588)4075770-5 gnd rswk-swf Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd rswk-swf Weltordnung (DE-588)4126263-3 gnd rswk-swf Machtpolitik (DE-588)4168427-8 gnd rswk-swf Kaukasuskrieg 2008 (DE-588)7712987-8 gnd rswk-swf Nationalitätenfrage (DE-588)4126113-6 gnd rswk-swf Vergleich (DE-588)4187713-5 gnd rswk-swf Globalisierung (DE-588)4557997-0 gnd rswk-swf Caucasus / Politics and government Kosovo (Republic) / Politics and government / 2008- Kosovo (Republic) / International status Caucasus Politics and government Kosovo (Republic) International status Kosovo (Republic) Politics and government 2008- Kaukasusländer (DE-588)4448813-0 gnd rswk-swf Georgien (DE-588)4022406-5 gnd rswk-swf Kosovo (DE-588)4032571-4 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf Kaukasusländer (DE-588)4448813-0 g Nationalitätenfrage (DE-588)4126113-6 s Kaukasuskrieg 2008 (DE-588)7712987-8 s DE-604 Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovič 1952- (DE-588)122188926 p Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g Machtpolitik (DE-588)4168427-8 s Ost-West-Konflikt (DE-588)4075770-5 s Weltordnung (DE-588)4126263-3 s Globalisierung (DE-588)4557997-0 s Georgien (DE-588)4022406-5 g Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 s Vergleich (DE-588)4187713-5 s Kosovo (DE-588)4032571-4 g Digitalisierung BSBMuenchen application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020312342&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020312342&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Abstract |
| spellingShingle | Štavljanin, Dragan Hladni mir Kavkaz i Kosovo Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovič 1952- (DE-588)122188926 gnd Politik Ost-West-Konflikt (DE-588)4075770-5 gnd Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd Weltordnung (DE-588)4126263-3 gnd Machtpolitik (DE-588)4168427-8 gnd Kaukasuskrieg 2008 (DE-588)7712987-8 gnd Nationalitätenfrage (DE-588)4126113-6 gnd Vergleich (DE-588)4187713-5 gnd Globalisierung (DE-588)4557997-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)122188926 (DE-588)4075770-5 (DE-588)4072885-7 (DE-588)4126263-3 (DE-588)4168427-8 (DE-588)7712987-8 (DE-588)4126113-6 (DE-588)4187713-5 (DE-588)4557997-0 (DE-588)4448813-0 (DE-588)4022406-5 (DE-588)4032571-4 (DE-588)4076899-5 |
| title | Hladni mir Kavkaz i Kosovo |
| title_auth | Hladni mir Kavkaz i Kosovo |
| title_exact_search | Hladni mir Kavkaz i Kosovo |
| title_full | Hladni mir Kavkaz i Kosovo Dragan Štavljanin |
| title_fullStr | Hladni mir Kavkaz i Kosovo Dragan Štavljanin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hladni mir Kavkaz i Kosovo Dragan Štavljanin |
| title_short | Hladni mir |
| title_sort | hladni mir kavkaz i kosovo |
| title_sub | Kavkaz i Kosovo |
| topic | Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovič 1952- (DE-588)122188926 gnd Politik Ost-West-Konflikt (DE-588)4075770-5 gnd Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd Weltordnung (DE-588)4126263-3 gnd Machtpolitik (DE-588)4168427-8 gnd Kaukasuskrieg 2008 (DE-588)7712987-8 gnd Nationalitätenfrage (DE-588)4126113-6 gnd Vergleich (DE-588)4187713-5 gnd Globalisierung (DE-588)4557997-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovič 1952- Politik Ost-West-Konflikt Internationale Politik Weltordnung Machtpolitik Kaukasuskrieg 2008 Nationalitätenfrage Vergleich Globalisierung Caucasus / Politics and government Kosovo (Republic) / Politics and government / 2008- Kosovo (Republic) / International status Caucasus Politics and government Kosovo (Republic) International status Kosovo (Republic) Politics and government 2008- Kaukasusländer Georgien Kosovo Russland |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020312342&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020312342&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT stavljanindragan hladnimirkavkazikosovo |