Ageing and the German economy: age-structure effects based on international comparisons
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Gütersloh
Verl. Bertelsmann-Stiftung
2010
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Klappentext Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Literaturangaben |
| Beschreibung: | 171 S. zahlr. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9783867930468 |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Until now, most studies of how demographics and economics
are linked have limited themselves to the ways that changes in
a population s overall size influence economic development. As
Ageing and the German Economy demonstrates, such under¬
takings have systematically underestimated the economic conse¬
quences of societal ageing. This work examines the impact that
demographic shifts will have on key economic factors in Germany
and
18
other countries (EU-15 member states, the US, Japan,
China and India) between now and
2050.
The variables examined
include GDP, savings, investment and inflation. Just one finding
among many is that, by
2050,
ageing populations will cause GDP
growth rates to be smaller than is generally anticipated.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG (ED.) AGEING AND THE GERMAN ECONOMY AGE-STRUCTURE
EFFECTS BASED ON INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS THOMAS LINDH, VAEXJOE
UNIVERSITY AND THE INSTITUTE FOR FUTURES STUDIES BO MALMBERG, STOCKHOLM
UNIVERSITY AND THE INSTITUTE FOR FUTURES STUDIES VERLAG
BERTELSMANNSTIFTUNG CONTENTS PREFACE 7 INTRODUCTION 9 PART ONE:
BACKGROUND AND PANEL ESTIMATION OF AGE EFFECTS 11 1 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
AND THE MACROECONOMY 13 1.1 A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE ECONOMIC LITERATURE
ON DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE 14 1.2 ADDITIONAL MACROECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHIC
EFFECTS 23 1.3 THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AS A GLOBAL PHENOMENON 30 2
DEMOGRAPHICALLY BASED PROJECTIONS OF THE MACROECONOMY 33 2.1
AGE-STRUCTURE EFFECTS IN A COUNTRY PANEL 33 2.2 ESTIMATION OF
CROSS-COUNTRY PANEL REGRESSION EQUATIONS 39 2.3 INTERPRETING THE RESULTS
43 2.4 PROJECTIONS FOR THE EU-15 REGION, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA AND THE
UNITED STATES, 2005-2050 44 2.5 ASSESSING COUNTRY HETEROGENEITY 57 PART
TWO: THE GERMAN POPULATION AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE 75 3
AGE-STRUCTURE EFFECTS ON THE GERMAN ECONOMY, 1950-2050 77 3.1 BASIC
ESTIMATION MODEL 77 3.2 DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS 87 3.3 FORECASTING THE
GERMAN MACROECONOMY, 2005-2050 91 4 EAST AND WEST GERMANY 101 4.1
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN EAST AND WEST GERMANY 101 4.2 COUNTERFACTUAL
FORECASTING OF EAST AND WEST GERMANY 104 5 SOME OTHER ASPECTS OF FUTURE
TRENDS 109 5.1 WHAT IF AGEING STOPPED TODAY? 109 5.2 EFFECTS ON INCOME
DISTRIBUTION 113 PART THREE: OTHER PERSPECTIVES ON THE FUTURE 117 6 THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN DIMATE AND DEMOGRAPHY 119 6.1 THEIMPACTOF
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ON CO 2 EMISSIONS 119 6.2 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE
SCENARIOS 120 6.3 POLICY IMPLICATION OF DEMOGRAPHICALLY BASED ECONOMIC
SCENARIOS 120 7 TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS, 2005-2050 123 7.1
INFERENCE FROM CURRENT ACCOUNT ESTIMATES 128 7.2 DISCUSSION OF THE RISKS
INVOLVED IN CARRYING GOVERNMENT DEBT 131 REFERENCES 133 TECHNICAL
APPENDIX 143 AI TIME SERIES AND SLOW-MOVING VARIABLES 143 A2
METHODOLOGICAL DIFFICULTIES OF THE GROWTH CONVERGENCE FRAMEWORK 143 A3
METHODOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC BACKGROUND 146 A3.1
TIME-SERIES REGRESSION AND FORECASTING 146 A3.2 CROSS-COUNTRY PANELS AND
THEIR ADVANTAGES 146 A3.3 CHOICES TO BE MADE IN MODELING AGE
DISTRIBUTIONS 147 A3.4 MULTICOLLINEARITY IN PANEL DATA AND NATIONAL TIME
SERIES 148 A4 DETAILED COUNTRY ESTIMATION RESULTS FROM TIME SERIES 149
A5 ESTIMATION OF GERMAN TIME SERIES 155 A5.1 PER CAPITA GDP GROWTH 156
A5.2 SAVINGS AND WEALTH ACCUMULATION 158 A5.3 GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION
160 A5.4 CURRENT ACCOUNT 163 A5.5 INFLATION 165 A5.6 REAL INTEREST RATES
168
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Lindh, Thomas Malmberg, Bo |
| author_facet | Lindh, Thomas Malmberg, Bo |
| author_role | aut aut |
| author_sort | Lindh, Thomas |
| author_variant | t l tl b m bm |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV036431624 |
| classification_rvk | MS 4200 QU 300 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)608715836 (DE-599)DNB997864672 |
| dewey-full | 338.94300905 304.60943 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 338 - Production 304 - Factors affecting social behavior |
| dewey-raw | 338.94300905 304.60943 |
| dewey-search | 338.94300905 304.60943 |
| dewey-sort | 3338.94300905 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics 300 - Social sciences |
| discipline | Soziologie Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| era | Prognose 2005-2050 gnd |
| era_facet | Prognose 2005-2050 |
| format | Book |
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| spelling | Lindh, Thomas Verfasser aut Ageing and the German economy age-structure effects based on international comparisons Thomas Lindh ; Bo Malmberg Gütersloh Verl. Bertelsmann-Stiftung 2010 171 S. zahlr. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Literaturangaben Prognose 2005-2050 gnd rswk-swf Internationaler Vergleich (DE-588)4120509-1 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf Altersstruktur (DE-588)4124541-6 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 g Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 s Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s Altersstruktur (DE-588)4124541-6 s Internationaler Vergleich (DE-588)4120509-1 s Prognose 2005-2050 z DE-604 Malmberg, Bo Verfasser aut Digitalisierung UB Passau application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020304173&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Klappentext GBV Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020304173&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Lindh, Thomas Malmberg, Bo Ageing and the German economy age-structure effects based on international comparisons Internationaler Vergleich (DE-588)4120509-1 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Altersstruktur (DE-588)4124541-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4120509-1 (DE-588)4066438-7 (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4124541-6 (DE-588)4011882-4 |
| title | Ageing and the German economy age-structure effects based on international comparisons |
| title_auth | Ageing and the German economy age-structure effects based on international comparisons |
| title_exact_search | Ageing and the German economy age-structure effects based on international comparisons |
| title_full | Ageing and the German economy age-structure effects based on international comparisons Thomas Lindh ; Bo Malmberg |
| title_fullStr | Ageing and the German economy age-structure effects based on international comparisons Thomas Lindh ; Bo Malmberg |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ageing and the German economy age-structure effects based on international comparisons Thomas Lindh ; Bo Malmberg |
| title_short | Ageing and the German economy |
| title_sort | ageing and the german economy age structure effects based on international comparisons |
| title_sub | age-structure effects based on international comparisons |
| topic | Internationaler Vergleich (DE-588)4120509-1 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Altersstruktur (DE-588)4124541-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Internationaler Vergleich Wirtschaftsentwicklung Bevölkerungsentwicklung Altersstruktur Deutschland |
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