Verfügbarkeit: Methods and applications of statistics in business, finance, and management science

Methods and applications of statistics in business, finance, and management science:

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Format:	Buch
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Hoboken, NJ Wiley 2010
Schriftenreihe:	Wiley series in methods and applications of statistics
Schlagworte:	Commercial statistics Finance / Statistics Statistik Finance > Statistics Finanzmathematik Wirtschaftsstatistik Lehrbuch
Online-Zugang:	Inhaltsverzeichnis
Beschreibung:	Literaturangaben
Beschreibung:	XXI, 711 S. graph. Darst.
ISBN:	9780470405109

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adam_text	Contents Preface v Contributors vii 1 Alternatives to Black— Scholes Formulation in Finance 1 1.1 Introduction ................................. 1 1.2 Motivation for Alternative Models ..................... 2 1.3 Methods of Valuation ............................ 3 1.4 Stochastic Interest-Rate Models ...................... 7 1.5 Stochastic Volatility Models ......................... 11 1.6 Models with Levy Processes ......................... 16 References ...................................... 22 2 Analytical Methods for Risk Management: An Engineering Systems Perspective 25 2.1 Introduction ................................. 25 2.2 Risk Management in Engineering Systems ................. 26 2.3 Risk Assessment and Analysis ....................... 31 2.4 Allocating Resources ............................. 51 2.5 Conclusion .................................. 53 References and Relevant Literature ........................ 55 3 ARCH and GARCH Models 59 3.1 Introduction ................................. 59 3.2 Volatility Clustering ............................. 59 3.3 GARCH .................................... 62 3.4 IGARCH ................................... 65 3.5 EGARCH ................................... 65 3.6 Alternative Parameterizations ....................... 66 3.7 Time-Varying Parameter and Bilinear Models ............... 66 3.8 Estimation and Inference .......................... 66 3.9 Testing .................................... 67 3.10 Empirical Example .............................. 67 3.11 Future Developments ............................ 68 ХІ Xli Contents References ...................................... 69 4 Bayesian Forecasting 72 4.1 Introduction ................................. 72 4.2 Background .................................. 72 4.3 Dynamic Bayesian Models ......................... 73 4.4 Normal Dynamic Linear Models ...................... 74 4.5 Component Dynamic Linear Models .................... 76 4.6 Discounting .................................. 77 4.7 Intervention .................................. 77 4.8 Monitoring and Adaptation ......................... 78 4.9 Mixtures of Dynamic Models ........................ 78 4.10 Non-normal Nonlinear Models ....................... 79 4.11 Multivariate Models ............................. 80 4.12 Computation and Simulation ........................ 80 4.13 Related Areas ................................ 81 References ...................................... 81 5 Bayesian Networks 85 5.1 Examples and Definitions .......................... 85 5.2 Constructing Bayesian-Network Models .................. 90 5.3 Models Specified by Input Lists ....................... 90 5.4 Graphically Specified Models ........................ 91 5.5 Conditionally Specified Models ....................... 91 5.6 Learning Models from Data ......................... 91 5.7 Propagation in Bayesian Networks ..................... 92 5.8 Available Software .............................. 95 References ...................................... 95 6 Box-Jenkins Model 98 6.1 Introduction ................................. 98 References ...................................... 103 7 Business Forecasting Methods 104 7.1 Introduction ................................. 104 7.2 Trend Curves ................................. 105 7.3 Exponential Smoothing ........................... 106 7.4 Exponential Smoothing and Arima Model Building ............ 108 7.5 Regression and Econometric Methods ................... 109 7.6 Regression and Time-Series Principles ................... 110 7.7 Combination of Forecasts .......................... Ill 7.8 Evaluation of Forecasts ........................... 112 7.9 Summary ................................... 114 References ...................................... 114 Contents XUJ 8 Combination of Forecasts 116 8.1 Introduction ................................. 116 8.2 The Theory of Combining .......................... 116 8.3 Estimators of the Weights .......................... 118 8.4 An Example ................................. 120 8.5 Further Extensions .............................. 120 References ...................................... 120 9 Decision Theory 122 9.1 Introduction ................................. 122 9.2 Parameters, Decisions, and Consequences ................. 122 9.3 Utility ..................................... 123 9.4 Components of a Decision Problem .................... 123 9.5 Subjective Probability ............................ 124 9.6 Decision Analysis .............................. 124 9.7 Statistical Decision Problems ........................ 125 9.8 Conjugate Families of Prior Distributions ................. 126 9.9 Improper Prior Distributions ........................ 127 9.10 Estimation and Tests of Hypothesis .................... 129 9.11 Sequential Decision Problems ........................ 130 References ...................................... 131 10 Dynamic Programming 133 10.1 Introduction ................................. 133 10.2 Definitions and Examples .......................... 133 10.3 Some Fundamental Principles ........................ 135 10.4 The Optimality Equation and Backward Induction ............ 136 10.5 Stationary Plans ............................... 137 References ...................................... 138 11 Estimation of Travel Distance 139 11.1 Introduction ................................. 139 11.2 Distance Functions .............................. 141 11.3 Goodness-of-Fit Criteria ........................... 145 11.4 Areas of Future Research .......................... 152 References ...................................... 155 12 Financial Time Series 158 12.1 Asset Price and Return ........................... 158 12.2 Fundamental and Technical Analyses ................... 161 12.3 Volatility Model ............................... 162 12.4 High-Frequency Data ............................ 166 12.5 Continuous-Time Model ........................... 167 References ...................................... 170 XIV Contents 13 Forecasting 172 13.1 Introduction ................................. 172 13.2 Model Components ............................. 173 13.3 Model Fitting for Forecasting ........................ 175 13.4 Forecasting Methods ............................. 176 13.5 Forecast Quality ............................... 177 References ...................................... 178 14 Foundations of Risk Measurement 180 14.1 Introduction ................................. 180 References ...................................... 183 15 Functional Networks 185 15.1 Introduction ................................. 185 15.2 Elements of Functional Networks ...................... 185 15.3 Differences Between Standard NNs and FNs ............... 187 15.4 Development and Implementation of FNs ................. 188 15.5 An Example of Application ......................... 193 References ...................................... 196 16 Game Theory 199 16.1 Introduction ................................. 199 16.2 Strategies and Payoffs ............................ 200 16.3 Applications to Statistics .......................... 208 References ...................................... 209 Additional Reading ................................. 209 17 Intervention Model Analysis 211 17.1 Introduction ................................. 211 17.2 Time-Series and Intervention Models .................... 211 17.3 Applications and Extensions ........................ 215 References ...................................... 216 18 Inventory Theory 217 18.1 Introduction ................................. 217 18.2 Historical Background ............................ 217 18.3 Models with Known Demand ........................ 218 18.4 Models with Uncertain Demand ...................... 219 18.5 Conclusion .................................. 224 References ...................................... 224 19 Manpower Planning 226 19.1 Introduction ................................. 226 19.2 Statistical Analysis of Wastage ....................... 226 19.3 Markov Models for Graded Systems .................... 227 19.4 Renewal Models for Graded Systems .................... 228 19.5 Literature ................................... 228 References ...................................... 229 Contents XV 20 Markov Networks 230 20.1 Statement of the Problem.......................... 230 20.2 Some Basic Concepts of Graphs ...................... 230 20.3 Constructing Markov Network Models ................... 238 20.4 Propagation in Markov Networks ...................... 240 20.5 Available Software .............................. 242 References ...................................... 242 21 Methods of Estimation of Risks and Analysis of Business Processes 245 21.1 Introduction ................................. 245 21.2 Mathematical Models of Economic Systems in the Form of the Business Processes Portfolio .............................. 247 21.3 Risks of Economic Systems ......................... 255 21.4 Economic Systems Factors Analysis .................... 263 References ...................................... 269 22 Mining Functional Data in Prediction Markets 273 22.1 Introduction ................................. 273 22.2 Prediction Markets .............................. 274 22.3 Data ...................................... 276 22.4 Functional Data Analysis .......................... 277 22.5 Discussion .................................. 289 References ...................................... 291 23 Models for Bid Arrivals and Bidder Arrivals in Online Auctions 293 23.1 Introduction ................................. 293 23.2 Motivation .................................. 293 23.3 Features of Bid Arrivals ........................... 295 23.4 The BARISTA: A Three-Stage Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process . . . 297 23.5 Relating Bidder Arrivals and Bid Arrivals ................. 303 References ...................................... 308 24 Multiserver Queues 310 24.1 Introduction ................................. 310 24.2 Markovian Queues .............................. 310 24.3 Non-Markovian Queues ........................... 312 24.4 Other Methods ................................ 313 References ...................................... 314 25 Multivariate Time-Series Analysis 317 25.1 Introduction ................................. 317 25.2 Stationary Multivariate Time Series and Their Covariance Properties . 317 25.3 Some Spectral Characteristics for Stationary Vector Processes ..... 319 25.4 Linear Filtering Relations for Stationary Vector Processes ........ 320 25.5 Linear Model Representations for Stationary Vector Processes ..... 321 25.6 Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Model Representations 321 25.7 Nonstationary Vector Autoregressive Moving-Average Models ...... 325 25.8 Forecasting for Vector Autoregressive Moving-Average Processes .... 326 XVI Contents 25.9 Statistical Analysis of Vector Autoregressive Moving-Average Models . 327 References ...................................... 329 26 Network Analysis 332 26.1 Introduction ................................. 332 27 Network of Queues 338 27.1 Introduction ................................. 338 27.2 Some Background .............................. 338 27.3 Some Results ................................. 339 27.4 More General Networks ........................... 341 27.5 Sojourn Times in Queueing Networks ................... 341 27.6 Customer Flow in Networks ......................... 342 27.7 Other Approaches and Topics ........................ 342 References ...................................... 345 28 Neural Networks 347 28.1 Introduction ................................. 347 28.2 Feed-Forward Networks ........................... 347 28.3 Recurrent Networks ............................. 351 28.4 Associative-Memory Networks and Boltzmann Machines ......... 351 28.5 Networks Trained by Unsupervised Learning ............... 352 28.6 Use of the Bayesian Approach ....................... 353 28.7 Conclusion .................................. 355 References ...................................... 355 Further Reading ................................... 357 29 Newsboy Inventory Problem. 358 29.1 Introduction ................................. 358 References ...................................... 364 30 Nonlinear Time Series 365 30.1 Introduction ................................. 365 30.2 Review of Linear Time Series ........................ 365 30.3 Nonparametric Methods ........................... 366 30.4 Parametric Models .............................. 367 30.5 Other Surveys and Comparisons ...................... 371 References ...................................... 372 31 Nonstationary Time Series 375 31.1 Introduction ................................. 375 31.2 Removing Nonstationary Means and Variances .............. 375 31.3 Extensions .................................. 376 31.4 Homogeneous and Explosive Nonstationarity ............... 381 31.5 Differencing .................................. 381 31.6 Starting Values and Nonstationarity .................... 382 31.7 АШМА Models ............................... 382 31.8 Sample Autocorrelations — Identifying the Degree of Differencing .... 382 Contents XVII 31.9 Estimation of Unit and Explosive Roots .................. 383 31.10 Forecasting .................................. 383 31.11 Variations and Extensions .......................... 385 31.12 Nonstationary Spectral Analysis ...................... 385 References ...................................... 387 32 PERT 389 32.1 Introduction ................................. 389 32.2 Finding the Expected Critical Path Length ................ 390 32.3 Simulation and Statistical Computations ................. 392 32.4 Estimation of Individual Activity Times .................. 393 32.5 Conclusions .................................. 394 References ...................................... 395 33 Prediction and Forecasting 396 33.1 Introduction ................................. 396 33.2 Regression Models .............................. 396 33.3 Regression and Smoothing Methods for Extrapolating a Single Time Series397 33.4 Forecasts from Univariate Time-Series Models .............. 399 33.5 Forecasts from Multivariate Time-Series Models ............. 401 33.6 State-Space Models, Kalman Filtering, and Bayesian Forecasting .... 402 33.7 Econometric Models ............................. 403 33.8 Input-Output Tables ............................ 404 33.9 Turning Points and Business Cycle Indicators ............... 404 33.10 Surveys of Anticipations and Intentions .................. 404 33.11 Combination of Forecasts .......................... 405 33.12 Prediction of Qualitative Characteristics .................. 405 33.13 Forecast Quality and the Evaluation of Forecasts ............. 405 References ...................................... 406 34 Pricing Foreign Exchange Options with Stochastic Volatility 408 34.1 Introduction ................................. 408 34.2 Arbitrage-Free Cross-Currency Markets .................. 410 34.3 Stein and Stein Stochastic Volatility Model with Vasicêk Interest Rates 413 34.4 Heston s Stochastic Volatility Model with CIR Interest Rates ...... 417 34.5 Foreign Exchange Option under Heston Volatility with Constant Interest Rates ..................................... 429 34.6 Concluding Remarks ............................. 430 References ...................................... 432 35 Probabilistic Expert Systems 434 35.1 Introduction ................................. 434 35.2 Graph Types ................................. 438 35.3 Conditional Independence and Markov Properties ............ 438 35.4 Specification of Joint Distribution ..................... 440 35.5 Local Computation Algorithm ....................... 442 35.6 Extensions .................................. 443 References ...................................... 443 XVIII Contents 36 Problem Solving in Statistics 445 36.1 Introduction ................................. 445 36.2 Phase 1: Study Design ........................... 445 36.3 Phase 2: Data Collection .......................... 448 36.4 Phase 3: Data Analysis ........................... 450 36.5 Postprocess Responsibilities ......................... 452 36.6 Conclusions .................................. 452 References ...................................... 452 37 Queueing Theory 455 37.1 Introduction ................................. 455 37.2 Subsequent Development of the Simple Queue Model .......... 456 37.3 Variants of the Simple Queueing Model .................. 458 37.4 Concluding Remarks ............................. 458 References ...................................... 459 38 Queues and Networks 463 38.1 Introduction ................................. 463 38.2 A Glimpse on Queueing Theory by Example ............... 464 38.3 The Vocabulary of Queueing Theory .................... 467 38.4 Little s Formulas ............................... 469 38.5 Markovian Queueing Systems of BD Type ................. 471 38.6 General Service Times: The System M/G/l ............... 477 38.7 The Systems M/G/c and G/G/c ...................... 479 38.8 Networks of Queues ............................. 480 38.9 Approximations and Numerical Methods ................. 488 38.10 Simulation .................................. 489 References ...................................... 490 39 Ranking and Selection Among Mutual Funds 493 39.1 Introduction ................................. 493 39.2 Statistical Underpinnings of Data Mining Using Combinatorial Fusion Algorithm ................................... 498 39.3 Stochastic Dominance and Asymmetric Attitude Towards Risk ..... 505 39.4 Summary and Final Remarks ........................ 505 References ...................................... 506 40 Risk Theory 508 40.1 Introduction ................................. 508 References ...................................... 512 41 Statistical Consulting 514 41.1 Definition ................................... 514 41.2 What Consultants Do ............................ 514 41.3 Historical Perspective ............................ 516 41.4 Skills Needed by a Consultant ....................... 518 41.5 Consulting and Communication ...................... 519 41.6 Computers and Consultants ......................... 519 Contents XIX 41.7 Keeping Up with Statistics ......................... 520 41.8 Ethics ..................................... 520 41.9 Teaching Consulting ............................. 521 41.10 Rewards of Consulting ............................ 522 References ...................................... 523 42 Statistical Methods in Inventory Effect and Analysis 524 42.1 Introduction ................................. 524 42.2 Futures Markets ............................... 525 42.3 Backwardation and Inventory Effect .................... 526 42.4 Inventory Effect: A Preliminary Analysis ................. 527 42.5 Ordered Divariate Normal Distribution .................. 529 42.6 Bivariate Lognormal Distribution ...................... 532 42.7 Ordered Bivariate Lognormal Distribution ................ 536 42.8 Conclusions .................................. 537 References ...................................... 539 43 Statistical Methods in Risk Management by Futures Clearinghouses 541 43.1 Introduction ................................. 541 43.2 Margin Requirements ............................ 545 43.3 Settlement Frequency ............................ 557 43.4 Capital Requirements ............................ 560 43.5 Price Limits ................................. 562 43.6 Position Limits ................................ 564 43.7 Conclusion .................................. 565 References ...................................... 566 44 Statistics in Auditing 568 44.1 Introduction ................................. 568 44.2 Study of Internal Control System ...................... 568 44.3 Study of Account Balances ......................... 568 44.4 Analytical Review .............................. 570 References ...................................... 571 45 Statistics in Banking 572 45.1 Introduction ................................. 572 45.2 Further Reading ............................... 576 References ...................................... 576 46 Statistics in Finance 578 46.1 Introduction ................................. 578 46.2 Regression Analysis and the Market Model ................ 578 46.3 Factor, Multiple Discriminant, and Logit Applications .......... 580 46.4 Time-Series Analyses of Financial Information .............. 582 46.5 Statistical Decision Theory and Finance .................. 583 References ...................................... 584 XX Contents 47 Statistics in Management Science 586 47.1 Introduction ................................. 586 47.2 Using Regression to Estimate Managerial Decision Rules ........ 587 47.3 Using Regression for Input Data in Modeling ............... 588 47.4 Construction of Causal Models by Regression ............... 589 47.5 Statistical Analysis of Algorithmic Performance Data .......... 590 47.6 Sampling Theory ............................... 591 47.7 Other Statistical Tools ............................ 592 References ...................................... 592 48 Statistics in Marketing 594 48.1 Introduction ................................. 594 48.2 Some Early Contributions .......................... 594 48.3 The Uses of Statistics in Marketing Research ............... 597 48.4 Sample Survey Methods ........................... 597 48.5 Multivariate Techniques ........................... 598 48.6 Forecasting Methods ............................. 601 48.7 Psychometric Methods in the Measurement of Consumer Perceptions and Preferences .................................. 603 48.8 Experimentation ............................... 607 48.9 Probability Models .............................. 609 References ...................................... 610 49 Statistics of Risk Management 618 49.1 Introduction ................................. 618 49.2 General Concept of Risk Management and Monitoring .................................. 618 49.3 Scope ..................................... 618 49.4 Evolution of Risk Management ....................... 619 49.5 Insurance ................................... 619 49.6 Gambling, Capital Budgeting, and Investments .............. 619 49.7 Technological Risk Management ...................... 620 49.8 Low-Probability-High-Consequence Risk Management .......... 621 49.9 Environmental Risk and Monitoring Systems ............................. 622 49.10 Epidemiology and Disease Detection .................... 623 49.11 Principles of Statistical Monitoring ..................... 623 References ...................................... 624 50 Stochastic Differential Equations: Applications in Economics and Man¬ agement Science 626 50.1 Introduction ................................. 626 50.2 Option Pricing ................................ 627 50.3 Stochastic Optimal Control ......................... 629 50.4 Final Remarks ................................ 632 References ...................................... 632 Contents XXI 51 Stochastic Games 634 51.1 Introduction ................................. 634 51.2 Special Cases ................................. 635 51.3 Computation ................................. 637 References ...................................... 638 52 Stock Market Price Indexes 639 52.1 Introduction ................................. 639 52.2 Definition and Uses ............................. 639 52.3 Brief History ................................. 640 52.4 Main Issues .................................. 640 52.5 A Numerical Example ............................ 645 52.6 Two Major Stock Market Price Indexes .................. 645 52.7 The S&P 500................................. 649 52.8 Comparison of Four International Indexes ................. 651 52.9 Stock Market Indexes and Portfolio Analysis ............... 653 52.10 Summary ................................... 656 References ...................................... 657 53 The Black— Schołes Formula and Its Applications in Finance 660 53.1 Introduction ................................. 660 53.2 The Black-Scholes Model .......................... 661 53.3 European Call and Put Options ...................... 665 53.4 Some Exotic Options ............................ 673 53.5 American Options .............................. 677 53.6 Application to the Modeling of Credit Risk ................ 679 53.7 Real Options ................................. 684 References ...................................... 685 54 Time Series 687 54.1 Introduction ................................. 687 54.2 Examples of Time Series .......................... 688 54.3 A Historical Perspective ........................... 691 54.4 Stationarity .................................. 691 54.5 The Frequency Domain ........................... 692 54.6 The Time Domain .............................. 692 54.7 State-Space Models ............................. 693 54.8 Transfer Functions and Interventions .................... 694 54.9 Other Topics ................................. 694 54.10 Literature ................................... 695 54.11 Computer Programs ............................. 695 54.12 Future Developments ............................ 695 References ...................................... 696 Index 698
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illustrated	Illustrated
indexdate	2024-07-09T22:37:41Z
institution	BVB
isbn	9780470405109
language	English
lccn	2010001879
oai_aleph_id	oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-020217330
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physical	XXI, 711 S. graph. Darst.
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series2	Wiley series in methods and applications of statistics
spelling	Methods and applications of statistics in business, finance, and management science N. Balakrishnan [ed.] Business, finance, and management science Hoboken, NJ Wiley 2010 XXI, 711 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Wiley series in methods and applications of statistics Literaturangaben Commercial statistics Finance / Statistics Statistik Finance Statistics Finanzmathematik (DE-588)4017195-4 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsstatistik (DE-588)4066517-3 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4123623-3 Lehrbuch gnd-content Wirtschaftsstatistik (DE-588)4066517-3 s Finanzmathematik (DE-588)4017195-4 s DE-604 Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy 1956- Sonstige (DE-588)122214846 oth Digitalisierung UB Regensburg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020217330&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis
spellingShingle	Methods and applications of statistics in business, finance, and management science Commercial statistics Finance / Statistics Statistik Finance Statistics Finanzmathematik (DE-588)4017195-4 gnd Wirtschaftsstatistik (DE-588)4066517-3 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)4017195-4 (DE-588)4066517-3 (DE-588)4123623-3
title	Methods and applications of statistics in business, finance, and management science
title_alt	Business, finance, and management science
title_auth	Methods and applications of statistics in business, finance, and management science
title_exact_search	Methods and applications of statistics in business, finance, and management science
title_full	Methods and applications of statistics in business, finance, and management science N. Balakrishnan [ed.]
title_fullStr	Methods and applications of statistics in business, finance, and management science N. Balakrishnan [ed.]
title_full_unstemmed	Methods and applications of statistics in business, finance, and management science N. Balakrishnan [ed.]
title_short	Methods and applications of statistics in business, finance, and management science
title_sort	methods and applications of statistics in business finance and management science
topic	Commercial statistics Finance / Statistics Statistik Finance Statistics Finanzmathematik (DE-588)4017195-4 gnd Wirtschaftsstatistik (DE-588)4066517-3 gnd
topic_facet	Commercial statistics Finance / Statistics Statistik Finance Statistics Finanzmathematik Wirtschaftsstatistik Lehrbuch
url	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020217330&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
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