Intelligence analysis: how to think in complex environments
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Santa Barbara, Calif. [u.a.]
Praeger Security International
2010
|
| Schriftenreihe: | An AUSA book
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | XVI, 440 S. |
| ISBN: | 9780313382659 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Intelligence analysis |b how to think in complex environments |c Wayne Michael Hall and Gary Citrenbaum ; foreword by Patrick M. Hughes |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | A/528527 INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS: A TARGET-CENTRIC APPROACH THIRD EDITION
ROBERT M. CLARK CQ *RESS A DIVISION OF SAGE WASHINGTON, D.C. CONTENTS
TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES XI PREFACE XV INTRODUCTION 1 WHY WE FAIL 1
FAILURE TO SHARE INFORMATION 2 FAILURE TO ANALYZE COLLECTED MATERIAL
OBJECTIVELY 3 FAILURE OF THE CUSTOMER TO ACT ON INTELLIGENCE 4 WHAT THE
BOOK IS ABOUT 5 SUMMARY 6 PART 1 INTRODUCTION TO TARGET-CENTRIC ANALYSIS
1 THE INTELLIGENCE PROCESS 8 THE NATURE OF INTELLIGENCE: REDUCING
UNCERTAINTY IN CONFLICT THE TRADITIONAL INTELLIGENCE CYCLE 10
INTELLIGENCE AS A TARGET-CENTRIC PROCESS 13 THE TARGET 17 THE TARGET AS
A COMPLEX SYSTEM 17 THE COMPLEX TARGET AS A NETWORK 19 SUMMARY 22 2
DEFINING THE INTELLIGENCE PROBLEM 24 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 25 THE
PROBLEM DEFINITION PRODUCT 27 DETAILED PROBLEM DEFINITION:
STRATEGIES-TO-TASK 27 STRATEGIES-TO-TASK AND COMPLEX PROBLEMS 30
EXAMPLE: DEFINING THE COUNTERINTELLIGENCE PROBLEM 32 SUMMARY 34 3 AN
ANALYSIS APPROACH TO THE TARGET 36 THE CONCEPT OF A MODEL 37 USING
TARGET MODELS FOR ANALYSIS 40 COUNTERINTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS 42 TARGETS 42
OPERATIONS 42 LINKAGES 43 VI CONTENTS TARGET MODEL COMBINATIONS 43
SUBMODELS 44 COLLATERAL MODELS 45 SUMMARY 47 4 THE ANALYTIC SPECTRUM 49
THE CONFLICT SPECTRUM 49 STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE 50 OPERATIONAL
INTELLIGENCE 51 TACTICAL INTELLIGENCE 51 THE TEMPORAL ANALYSIS SPECTRUM
52 LONG-TERM RESEARCH VERSUS CURRENT INTELLIGENCE 53 FUSION CENTERS 54
CAPABILITIES, PLANS, AND INTENTIONS 55 INDICATIONS AND WARNING 55
SUMMARY 58 PART 2 SYNTHESIS: CREATING THE MODEL 5 OVERVIEW OF MODELS IN
INTELLIGENCE 60 CREATING A CONCEPTUAL MODEL 60 GENERIC MODELS 61 LISTS
61 CURVES 61 COMPARATIVE MODELING (BENCHMARKING) 63 PATTERN MODELS 64
RELATIONSHIP MODELS 67 PROFILES 75 PROCESS MODELS 76 SIMULATION MODELS
77 COMBINATION MODELS 80 GEOSPATIAL MODELS 80 HUMAN TERRAIN MODELS 81
SPACE-TIME MODELS 83 GEOGRAPHIC PROFILING 84 SUMMARY 84 6 SOURCES OF
INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION 87 EXISTING REPORTS 87 A TAXONOMY OF
INTELLIGENCE SOURCES 88 LITERAL INTELLIGENCE SOURCES 91 OPEN SOURCE 91
HUMAN INTELLIGENCE 94 CONTENTS VII COMMUNICATIONS INTELLIGENCE 99 CYBER
COLLECTION 103 NONLITERAL INTELLIGENCE 109 REMOTE AND IN SITU SENSING
110 IMAGING AND SPECTRAL SENSING 111 PASSIVE RADIOFREQUENCY INTELLIGENCE
114 RADAR INTELLIGENCE 116 GEOPHYSICAL AND NUCLEAR INTELLIGENCE 117
MATERIEL AND MATERIALS COLLECTION 118 BIOMETRICS 120 SUMMARY 120 7
EVALUATING AND COLLATING DATA 124 EVALUATING EVIDENCE 124 EVALUATING THE
SOURCE 125 EVALUATING THE COMMUNICATIONS CHANNEL 128 EVALUATING THE
CREDENTIALS OF EVIDENCE 130 PITFALLS IN EVALUATING EVIDENCE 133
COMBINING EVIDENCE 139 CONVERGENT AND DIVERGENT EVIDENCE 140 REDUNDANT
EVIDENCE 140 STRUCTURED ARGUMENTATION 141 WIGMORE S CHARTING METHOD 141
BAYESIAN TECHNIQUES FOR COMBINING EVIDENCE 143 ALTERNATIVE TARGET MODELS
145 SUMMARY 147 8 COLLECTION STRATEGIES 150 THE U.S. COLLECTION
MANAGEMENT PROBLEM 151 THE PROBLEM BREAKDOWN AND TARGET MODEL
RELATIONSHIP 154 IDENTIFYING GAPS 157 DEVELOPING THE COLLECTION STRATEGY
159 USING EXISTING COLLECTION ASSETS 160 DEALING WITH ENIGMAS 165
PLANNING FOR FUTURE COLLECTION: FILLING THE LONG-TERM GAPS 166 SUMMARY
166 9 DENIAL, DECEPTION, AND SIGNALING 169 DENIAL AND DECEPTION 169
DEFENSE AGAINST D&D: PROTECTING INTELLIGENCE SOURCES AND METHODS 171
HIGHER LEVEL DENIAL AND DECEPTION 172 THE MAN WHO NEVER WAS 173 THE
CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS 174 THE FAREWELL DOSSIER 175 VIII CONTENTS THE
INDIAN NUCLEAR TEST 176 COUNTERING DENIAL AND DECEPTION 177 SIGNALING
179 ANALYTIC TRADECRAFT IN A WORLD OF D&D 181 SUMMARY 182 PART 3
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS 10 PREDICTION 185 INTRODUCTION TO PREDICTION 185
CONVERGENT AND DIVERGENT PHENOMENA 186 THE PREDICTIVE APPROACH 188
INTRODUCTION TO FORCE SYNTHESIS/ANALYSIS 191 QUALITATIVE FORCE
SYNTHESIS/ANALYSIS 192 PREDICTING ORGANIZATIONS BEHAVIOR AND FUTURE 193
SCENARIOS 195 WHY USE SCENARIOS? 195 TYPES OF SCENARIOS 196 SCENARIO
PERSPECTIVES 198 HOW TO CONSTRUCT SCENARIOS 199 INDICATORS AND THE ROLE
OF INTELLIGENCE 203 SUMMARY 204 11 PREDICTIVE TECHNIQUES 207
EXTRAPOLATION 208 EXTRAPOLATION TECHNIQUES 208 CORRELATION AND
REGRESSION 210 LIMITATIONS OF EXTRAPOLATION 211 PROJECTION 211
GENERATING ALTERNATIVES 212 INFLUENCE TREES OR DIAGRAMS 213 INFLUENCE
NETS 217 MAKING PROBABILITY ESTIMATES 218 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 219
FORECASTING 220 THE NONLINEAR APPROACH TO FORECASTING 221 TECHNIQUES AND
ANALYTIC TOOLS OF FORECASTING 223 EVALUATING FORECASTS 223 SUMMARY 224
12 SHAPING FORCES 226 INERTIA 226 COUNTERVAILING FORCES 228 CONTENTS IX
CONTAMINATION 229 SYNERGY 231 FEEDBACK 233 STRENGTH 234 TIME DELAY 235
REGULATION 236 SUMMARY 238 13 ORGANIZATIONAL ANALYSIS 240 STRUCTURE 241
ORGANIZATIONAL SIZE AND CAPABILITIES 241 TYPE OF STRUCTURE 242 NETWORK
ANALYSIS 242 FUNCTION 248 RATIONAL ASPECT 248 CULTURAL ASPECT 250
EMOTIONAL ASPECT 254 COLLECTIVE DECISION MAKING 254 PROCESS 255
OPERATIONS RESEARCH 255 SCHEDULE 258 COST 261 SUMMARY 263 14 TECHNOLOGY
AND SYSTEMS ANALYSIS 265 TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT 265 FUTURE PERFORMANCE
266 INNOVATION 268 TECHNOLOGY USE, TRANSFER, AND DIFFUSION 272 SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS 276 FUTURE SYSTEMS 277 PERFORMANCE ANALYSES 278 SYSTEMS
SIMULATION 284 SIMULATIONS USED IN INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS 284 CREATING
AND RUNNING A SIMULATION 286 SUMMARY 288 15 THE ANALYST AND THE CUSTOMER
290 THE ANALYST 290 OBJECTIVITY 290 BROAD PERSPECTIVE 291 ANALYST AS
TEAM PLAYER 292 THE CUSTOMER 294 POLICYMAKERS 294 X CONTENTS BUSINESS
LEADERS 296 MILITARY LEADERSHIP 296 MILITARY OPERATIONS 297 LAW
ENFORCEMENT 297 ANALYST-CUSTOMER INTERACTION 298 ANALYST AS
COMMUNICATOR: GETTING THE CUSTOMER TO UNDERSTAND THE MESSAGE 299 ANALYST
AS ADVOCATE: GETTING BUY-IN 300 THE DEFENSE ANALYSIS CHALLENGE 302
PRESENTING ANALYSIS RESULTS 303 SUPPORT EVERY ANALYTIC CONCLUSION 304
WRITE OR BRIEF WITH A PURPOSE 304 SEPARATE FACTS FROM ANALYSIS 304 GET
TO THE POINT 305 WRITE OR BRIEF TO INFORM, NOT TO IMPRESS 306 MAKE IT
EASY AND ENJOYABLE TO READ OR LISTEN TO 306 WRITE AS YOU WOULD TALK 307
AVOID ACRONYMS 307 USE GRAPHICS 307 SUMMARY 308 APPENDIX: A TALE OF TWO
NIES 310 THE YUGOSLAVIA NIE 310 THE SETTING 311 FIRST DRAFT (THE MUDDLE
THROUGH NIE) 312 SECOND DRAFT: FORCE FIELD ANALYSIS 313 THE CUSTOMER
VIEW 314 THE IRAQI WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION NIE 314 POOR PROBLEM
DEFINITION 315 POOR EVALUATION OF SOURCES AND EVIDENCE 316 FAILURE TO
CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE TARGET MODELS 318 POOR ANALYTIC METHODOLOGY 318
POOR INTERACTION WITH COLLECTORS AND CUSTOMERS 319 INDEX 321 ABOUT THE
AUTHOR 339
|
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| spelling | Hall, Wayne M. Verfasser (DE-588)142290297 aut Intelligence analysis how to think in complex environments Wayne Michael Hall and Gary Citrenbaum ; foreword by Patrick M. Hughes Santa Barbara, Calif. [u.a.] Praeger Security International 2010 XVI, 440 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier An AUSA book Includes bibliographical references and index Intelligence service Methodology Geheimdienst (DE-588)4019737-2 gnd rswk-swf Arbeitstechnik (DE-588)4002786-7 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Geheimdienst (DE-588)4019737-2 s Arbeitstechnik (DE-588)4002786-7 s b DE-604 Citrenbaum, Gary Verfasser (DE-588)14229036X aut Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-0-313-38266-6 GBV Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=018926152&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Hall, Wayne M. Citrenbaum, Gary Intelligence analysis how to think in complex environments Intelligence service Methodology Geheimdienst (DE-588)4019737-2 gnd Arbeitstechnik (DE-588)4002786-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4019737-2 (DE-588)4002786-7 (DE-588)4078704-7 |
| title | Intelligence analysis how to think in complex environments |
| title_auth | Intelligence analysis how to think in complex environments |
| title_exact_search | Intelligence analysis how to think in complex environments |
| title_full | Intelligence analysis how to think in complex environments Wayne Michael Hall and Gary Citrenbaum ; foreword by Patrick M. Hughes |
| title_fullStr | Intelligence analysis how to think in complex environments Wayne Michael Hall and Gary Citrenbaum ; foreword by Patrick M. Hughes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Intelligence analysis how to think in complex environments Wayne Michael Hall and Gary Citrenbaum ; foreword by Patrick M. Hughes |
| title_short | Intelligence analysis |
| title_sort | intelligence analysis how to think in complex environments |
| title_sub | how to think in complex environments |
| topic | Intelligence service Methodology Geheimdienst (DE-588)4019737-2 gnd Arbeitstechnik (DE-588)4002786-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Intelligence service Methodology Geheimdienst Arbeitstechnik USA |
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