Are oil price forecasters finally right?: Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English German |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Frankfurt am Main
Dt. Bundesbank
2009
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank : Series 1, economic studies
2009,32 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Auch im Internet verfügbar. - Zsfassung in dt. Sprache |
| Beschreibung: | 35 S. |
| ISBN: | 9783865585837 9783865585844 |
Internformat
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| 020 | |a 9783865585844 |c (Internetversion) |9 978-3-86558-584-4 | ||
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Are oil price forecasters finally right? |b Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price |c Stefan Reitz ; Jan C. Rülke ; Georg Stadtmann |
| 264 | 1 | |a Frankfurt am Main |b Dt. Bundesbank |c 2009 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804140934100680704 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Are oil price forecasters finally right?
Autor: Reitz, Stefan
Jahr: 2009
Contents
1 Introduction X
2 The Data Set 3
3 Examination of the Expectation Formation Process 5
3.1 Extrapolative Expectation Formation Hypothesis....... 5
3.2 Regressive Expectation Hypothesis............... 7
4 Tests for Rationality of Expectations 12
4.1 Unbiasedness ........................... 12
4.2 Orthogonality........................... 12
5 Expectations and Forecast Accuracy 14
6 Does Forecasting Accuracy Suffer from Peso Problems? 16
7 Conclusion 19
List of Figures
1 Actual Oil Price and Mean Forecast............... 5
2 Actual Oil Price and Fundamental Value............ 11
3 Smoothed Probabilities of the Bubble-Bursting Regime .... 19
List of Tables
1 Summary Statistics of the Expected and Actual Oil Price ... 4
2 Regression Results for the Extrapolative and Regressive Ex-
pectation Hypothesis....................... 7
3 Oil-Price Fundamentals...................... 10
4 Test of Unbiasedness....................... 13
5 Test of Orthogonality....................... 14
6 Test of Forecasting Accuracy................... 16
7 Markov Switching Model..................... 18
|
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| building | Verbundindex |
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| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)502424786 (DE-599)BVBBV035944999 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV035944999 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T22:07:51Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783865585837 9783865585844 |
| language | English German |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-018802161 |
| oclc_num | 502424786 |
| open_access_boolean | 1 |
| owner | DE-20 DE-945 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-12 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-20 DE-945 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-12 DE-188 |
| physical | 35 S. |
| psigel | ebook |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publishDateSearch | 2009 |
| publishDateSort | 2009 |
| publisher | Dt. Bundesbank |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank : Series 1, economic studies |
| spelling | Are oil price forecasters finally right? Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price Stefan Reitz ; Jan C. Rülke ; Georg Stadtmann Frankfurt am Main Dt. Bundesbank 2009 35 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank : Series 1, economic studies 2009,32 Auch im Internet verfügbar. - Zsfassung in dt. Sprache Preisentwicklung (DE-588)4125931-2 gnd rswk-swf Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd rswk-swf Erdölpreis (DE-588)4136831-9 gnd rswk-swf Erdölpreis (DE-588)4136831-9 s Preisentwicklung (DE-588)4125931-2 s Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 s b DE-604 Reitz, Stefan 1964- Sonstige (DE-588)120653052 oth Ruelke, Jan-Christoph 1978- Sonstige (DE-588)1016803729 oth Stadtmann, Georg 1970- Sonstige (DE-588)12357854X oth Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion paper Series 1, economic studies ; 2009,32 (DE-604)BV017594637 2009,32 http://hdl.handle.net/10419/29652 Verlag kostenfrei Volltext HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=018802161&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Are oil price forecasters finally right? Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price Preisentwicklung (DE-588)4125931-2 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Erdölpreis (DE-588)4136831-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4125931-2 (DE-588)4358095-6 (DE-588)4136831-9 |
| title | Are oil price forecasters finally right? Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price |
| title_auth | Are oil price forecasters finally right? Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price |
| title_exact_search | Are oil price forecasters finally right? Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price |
| title_full | Are oil price forecasters finally right? Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price Stefan Reitz ; Jan C. Rülke ; Georg Stadtmann |
| title_fullStr | Are oil price forecasters finally right? Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price Stefan Reitz ; Jan C. Rülke ; Georg Stadtmann |
| title_full_unstemmed | Are oil price forecasters finally right? Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price Stefan Reitz ; Jan C. Rülke ; Georg Stadtmann |
| title_short | Are oil price forecasters finally right? |
| title_sort | are oil price forecasters finally right regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price |
| title_sub | Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price |
| topic | Preisentwicklung (DE-588)4125931-2 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Erdölpreis (DE-588)4136831-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Preisentwicklung Prognoseverfahren Erdölpreis |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/29652 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=018802161&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV017594637 |
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