Future skill needs in Europe: medium-term forecast ; background technical report
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| Format: | Regierungsdokument Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | German |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Luxembourg
Publ. Office of the Europ. Union
2009
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| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | 225 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9789289605069 |
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Titel: Future skill needs in Europe
Autor:
Jahr: 2009
Tabie of contents
Foreword
Acknowledgements
Table of contents
List of tables
List of figures
Executive summary
_ . 14
Overview
14
Background
Modular approach
Data sources and preferred employment estimates 16
Key findings
Conclusions
1. Overview and introduction 20
1.1. Background 20
1.1.1. Introduction 20
1.1.2. Rationale for producing quantitative skills projections 21
1.1.3. General approach 26
1.2. Dataissues 29
1.2.1. Labour force surveys versus national
accounts estimates 29
1.2.2. Other data issues 30
1.2.3. Country workbooks 30
1.3. Module 1: macroeconomic and sectoral scenarios 31
1.3.1. E3ME outline and overview 31
1.3.2. Alternative scenarios 33
1.4. Modules 2 and 3: expansion demand by occupation
and qualifications 33
1.4.1. Overview of modules 2 and 3 33
1.4.2. Modelling employment by occupation
and qualif ication 34
1.5. Module 4: replacement demand 35
1,5.1. General approach 35
Table of contents
2. National accounts versus labour force survey 37
2.1. Introduction 37
2.2. Examining the main differences 38
2.2.1. Methods and data collection 38
2.2.2. Concepts and definitions 39
2.2.2.1. Employment in the LFS 39
2.2.2.2. Employment in NA 40
2.2.2.3. Head count versus job count 40
2.2.2.4. Concepts usually not measured in NA 40
2.2.3. National versus domestic concept 40
2.2.4. Groups not included in the LFS 41
2.2.5. Sectoral and occupational classification 41
2.2.6. Employees of temporary employment agencies 42
2.3. Different aggregate employment levels 42
2.3.1. Differences caused by concept used 42
2.3.2. E3ME versus Eurostat estimates 46
2.3.3. NA-LFS differences for sectors 47
2.4. Conclusions 53
3. Macroeconomic and multisectoral scenarios 55
3.1. Introduction 55
3.2. The E3ME 56
3.2.1. General introduction to the E3ME 56
3.2.2. Theoretical background to E3ME 59
3.2.3. E3ME as a regional econometric input-output model 59
3.2.4. E3ME treatment of the labour market 62
3.2.5. Main data sources 64
3.2.6. Technical progress 65
3.2.7. Parameter estimation 65
3.2.8. Employment data 66
3.3. Producing baseline projections 66
3.3.1. Baseline economic forecast 66
3.3.2. Baseline employment projections 68
3.3.3. The role of country experts 69
3.3.4. Defining the scenarios 71
3.4. Summary of results 74
3.4.1. Baseline projections 74
3.4.2. Scenario results 76
j Future skill needs in Europe: medium-term forecast
6 1 Background technical report
4. Expansion demand and changes in occupational
and qualifications structure 81
4.1. Introduction 81
4.2. Modelling occupational structure in forecasting 82
4.2.1. Most common methods 82
4.2.2. Best practice approaches to modelling
occupational structure 83
4.3. Data available and the ideal specification 88
4.4. Empirical specifications 90
4.5. Data problems implications 93
4.6. Mlogit results for occupations and qualifications 101
4.6.1. Examples of results by selected industries 101
4.6.2. Overview of results for occupations 107
4.6.3. Qualifications results 118
4.7. Comparing methods for projecting shares 122
4.8. Concluding remarks 133
4.9. Algorithm for choice of specification 134
5. Replacement demand module 136
5.1. Introduction 136
5.2. General approach 136
5.3. Data 137
5.3.1. Labour force survey 138
5.3.2. Population forecasts 138
5.3.3. Participation 142
5.4. Methodology 146
5.4.1. Replacement demand components 146
5.4.2. Estimated and projected flows 146
5.5. Challenges 149
5.5.1. Methodological challenges 149
5.5.2. Data challenges 150
5.5.3. Migration 151
5.6. Results 153
5.6.1. Occupations 154
5.6.2. Country workbook 155
5.7. Concluding remarks 155
Table of contents
6. Forecast results 157
6.1. Background 157
6.2. Benchmark macro and sectoral employment scenario 157
6.2.1. Typical national results 157
6.2.1.1. Prospects by sector 158
6.2.1.2. Prospects by occupation and qualification 162
6.2.1.3. Replacement demand 169
6.2.2. Pan-European results 172
6.2.2.1. Prospects by sector 172
6.2.2.2. Prospects by occupation 176
6.2.2.3. Replacement demand 181
6.2.3. Detailed pan-European results by country 184
6.2.3.1. Prospects by sector 184
6.2.3.2. Prospects by occupation 192
6.2.3.3. Replacement demand 197
6.3. Alternative pan-European macro scenarios 200
6.3.1. Background 200
6.3.1.1. Sensitivity by sector 200
6.3.1.2. Sensitivity by occupation 202
6.3.1.3. Sensitivity of replacement demand 205
6.3.2. Sensitivity by qualifications 207
7. Conclusions and the way forward 212
7.1. Summary 212
7.2. Key findings 213
7.3. Policy implications 215
7.4. Outstanding data problems and scope for refinement 217
7.5. Continuing dialogue and country expert input 217
7.6. The way forward 218
Annex - List of contributing country experts 220
References 222
List of abbreviations 226
Future skill needs in Europe: medium-term forecast
Background technical report
List of tables
1.1 Arguments for and against employment and skill needs
forecasting
2.1 NA estimates national concept versus domestic concept 43
2.2 LFS (national) and NA (national) differences in employment
across EU-27 U
2.3 LFS (national) and NA (domestic) differences in employment
across EU-27 (domestic) 45
2.4 2005 E3ME and Eurostat estimates of NA employment 46
2.5 Differences between LFS and NA employment for six broad
sectors of economic activity for each EU-25 Member State 47
3.1 E3ME industry classification 57
3.2 Baseline economic results 68
3.3 Scenario B: optimistic 70
3.4 Scenario C: pessimistic 72
3.5 Model variables changed in the positive and negative
scenarios, 2007-20 73
3.6 Baseline employment (average annual growth rate) 74
3.7 Employment comparison between scenarios 77
4.1 List of variables used 85
4.2 Breaks and discontinuities in the LFS data 95
4.3 Multinomial logistic regression output, printing
and publishing, Greece 103
4.4 Multinomial logistic regression output, banking
and finance, Greece 104
4.5 Multinomial logistic regression output, printing and
publishing, UK 105
4.6 Multinomial logistic regression output, banking and
finance, UK 106
4.7 Occupational structure, all industries, logistic and mlogit,
2006, 2010, 2015, Greece 127
4.8 Occupational structure, all industries, simple extrapolation,
2006, 2010, 2015, Greece 128
4.9 Occupational share, all industries, 2015, Greece 129
5.1 Data availability 145
5.2 Net migration by country 2000-05 152
6.1 Employment trends by broad sector, Greece 159
6.2 Employment trends by industry, Greece 160
Table of contents
6.3 Employment trends by industry, changes, Greece 163
6.4 Employment trends (levels) by occupation,
broad group, Greece 164
6.5 Employment trends (shares) by occupation,
broad group, Greece 165
6.6 Employment growth by occupation, broad group, Greece 166
6.7 Employment change by occupation, broad group, Greece 167
6.8 Employment by qualification/level of education, Greece 168
6.9 Replacement demand by occupation, broad group, Greece 170
6.10 Employment trends by broad sector, EU-25+ 173
6.11 Employment trends by industry, EU-25+ 174
6.12 Employment trends by industry, changes, EU-25+ 175
6.13 Employment trends (levels) by occupation,
broad group, EU-25+ 177
6.14 Employment trends (shares) by occupation,
broad group, EU-25+ 178
6.15 Employment trends (growth) by occupation,
broad group, EU-25+ 179
6.16 Employment trends (change) by occupation,
broad group, EU-25+ 180
6.17 Replacement demand by occupation,
broad group, EU-25+ 182
6.18 Changes in employment by country 185
6.19 Changes in employment by country, primary sector
and utilities 186
6.20 Changes in employment by country, manufacturing 187
6.21 Changes in employment by country, construction 188
6.22 Changes in employment by country, distribution
and transport 189
6.23 Changes in employment by country, business
and other services 190
6.24 Changes in employment by country, non-marketed services 191
6.25 Occupational employment by country 2006 ('000) 193
6.26 Projected employment by country and occupation ('000) 194
6.27 Projected employment growth by country and occupation (%) 195
6.28 Projected employment growth (annual %) 196
6.29 Replacement demand by country and occupation ('000) 198
6.30 Total job openings by country and occupation ('000) 199
6.31 Employment trends by industry, different scenarios, EU-25+ 202
1 Future skill needs in Europe: medium-term forecast
10 I Background technical report
6.32 Employment trends by broad occupation,
different scenarios, EU-25+ 204
6 33 Replacement demand by broad occupation based on LFS,
' EIK 5+ . 2°6
6 34 Expansion demand by qualification, different scenarios,
EU-25+ 209
6.35 Total requirements by qualification, scenarios, EU-25+ 211
List of figures
1.1 Overview of the modular approach to skills forecasting
(the framework) 28
3.1 E3ME as a regional econometric input-output model 60
3.2 Baseline employment: average annual growth rate between
2007 and 2015 75
3.3 Baseline employment: average annual growth rate between
2007 and 2015 by main sector 76
3.4 Pessimistic scenario employment: average annual growth
rate between 2007 and 2015 79
3.5 Optimistic scenario employment: average annual growth
rate between 2007 and 2015 80
4.1 Occupational share, all industries, 1993-2006, UK 96
4.2 Occupational share, all industries, 1997-2006,
Czech Republic 96
4.3 Occupational share, all industries, 1997-2006, France 97
4.4 Occupational share, all industries, 1993-2006, Ireland 98
4.5 Occupational share, all industries, 1993-2006, Italy 98
4.6 Occupational share, past trends and projections
for all industries, 1992-2020, France "
4.7 Occupational share, coal industries, 1993-2006, UK 10°
4.8 Occupational share, past trends and projections for retailing,
1970-20, Ireland 100
4.9 Indicative occupational share for top 10 occupations,
all industries, 1993-2015, UK 1°8
4.10 Indicative occupational share for top 10 occupations,
all industries, 1993-2015, Greece 109
4.11 Indicative occupational share for top 10 occupations,
all industries, 1993-2015, Latvia 110
Table of contents i 11
4.12 Indicative occupational share for top 10 occupations,
all industries, 1993-2015, Poland 111
4.13 Indicative occupational share for top 10 occupations,
banking and finance, 1993-2015, Greece 112
4.14 Indicative occupational share for top 10 occupations,
retailing, 1993-2015, Greece 112
4.15 Indicative occupational share for top 10 occupations,
education, 1993-2015, Greece 113
4.16 Indicative occupational share for top 10 occupations,
construction, 1993-2015, Greece 114
4.17 Indicative occupational share for top 10 occupations,
distribution, 1993-2015, Greece 114
4.18 Indicative occupational share for top 10 occupations,
communications, 1993-2015, UK 115
4.19 Indicative occupational share for top 10 occupations,
communications, 1993-2015, Italy 116
4.20 Indicative occupational share for top 10 occupations,
communications, 1993-2015, Latvia 116
4.21 Indicative occupational share for top 10 occupations,
communications, 1993-2015, Poland 117
4.22 Qualification share, all industries and occupations,
1993-2015, Greece 118
4.23 Qualification share, all industries and occupations,
1993-2015, Ireland 119
4.24 Qualification share, all industries and occupations,
1993-2015, Cyprus 119
4.25 Qualification share, all industries and occupations,
1993-2015, UK 119
4.26 Qualification share, corporate managers, all industries,
1993-2015, Greece 120
4.27 Qualification share, physical, mathematical and engineering
sciences professionals, all industries, 1993-2015, Greece 120
4.28 Qualification share, physical and engineering sciences
associate professionals, all industries, 1993-2015, Greece 121
4.29 Qualification share, office clerks, all industries,
1993-2015, Greece 121
4.30 Qualification share, sales and services elementary
occupations, all industries, 1993-2015, Greece 121
I Future skill needs in Europe: medium-term forecast
12 I Background technical report
4.31 Occupational structure, constructions, mlogit,
1993-2015, Greece 123
4.32 Occupational structure, constructions, logistic function,
1993-2015, Greece 124
4.33 Occupational structure, constructions, retailing,
1993-2015, Greece 124
4.34 Occupational structure, constructions, retailing logistic
function, 1993-2015, Greece 125
4.35 Occupational structure, constructions, distribution, mlogit,
1993-2015, Greece 125
4.36 Occupational structure, constructions, distribution, logistic,
1993-2015, Greece 126
4.37 Projected occupational share using different methods,
2015, Greece 130
4.38 Projected occupational share using different methods,
managers, 2015, Greece 130
4.39 Projected occupational share using different methods,
professionals, 2015, Greece 130
4.40 Projected occupational share using different methods,
associates professionals, 2015, Greece 131
4.41 Projected occupational share using different methods,
clerks, 2015, Greece 131
4.42 Projected occupational share using different methods,
service workers, 2015, Greece 131
4.43 Projected occupational share using different methods,
trade workers, 2015, Greece 132
4.44 Projected occupational share using different methods,
machinery and plant operators, 2015, Greece 132
4.45 Projected occupational share using different methods,
elementary occupations, 2015, Greece 132
4.46 Occupational change 2006-15, mlogit versus logistic,
Greece 132
5.1 Annual predicted changes in the population 2005-15 139
5.2 Population forecast by age group for 2005, 2010, 2015 140
5.3 Participation rates across countries 143
5.4 Schematic of replacement demand 147
5.5 Total annual net replacement demand by country 154
6.1 Employment trends by broad sector, Greece 158
6.2 Employment trends by broad occupation, Greece 16S
Table of contents I 13
6.3 Employment trends by qualification/level of education, Greece 169
6.4 Employment trends by broad sector, EU-25+ 172
6.5 Employment trends by broad occupation, ELJ-25+ 176
6.6 Employment trends by broad sector, different scenarios,
EU-25+ 201
6.7 Employment trends by broad occupation, different scenarios,
EU-25+ 203
6.8 Total requirements by broad occupation, different scenarios,
EU-25+ 207
6.9 Expansion demand by qualification, different scenarios,
EU-25+ 208
6.10 Total requirements by qualification, different scenarios,
EU-25+ 210 |
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| publisher | Publ. Office of the Europ. Union |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Future skill needs in Europe medium-term forecast ; background technical report CEDEFOP Luxembourg Publ. Office of the Europ. Union 2009 225 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd rswk-swf Arbeidsmarkt gtt Beroepskwalificaties gtt Berufsausbildung stw Betriebliche Berufsausbildung stw EU-Berufsbildungspolitik stw EU-Staaten stw Norwegen stw Prognose stw Schweiz stw Arbeitsmarkt Berufsausbildung (DE-588)4005871-2 gnd rswk-swf Beschäftigungspolitik (DE-588)4005982-0 gnd rswk-swf Europa (geografie) gtt Prognoses (vorm) gtt Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 b Beschäftigungspolitik (DE-588)4005982-0 s Berufsausbildung (DE-588)4005871-2 s DE-188 European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training Sonstige (DE-588)2116941-X oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=018721039&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Future skill needs in Europe medium-term forecast ; background technical report Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd Arbeidsmarkt gtt Beroepskwalificaties gtt Berufsausbildung stw Betriebliche Berufsausbildung stw EU-Berufsbildungspolitik stw EU-Staaten stw Norwegen stw Prognose stw Schweiz stw Arbeitsmarkt Berufsausbildung (DE-588)4005871-2 gnd Beschäftigungspolitik (DE-588)4005982-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)5098525-5 (DE-588)4005871-2 (DE-588)4005982-0 |
| title | Future skill needs in Europe medium-term forecast ; background technical report |
| title_auth | Future skill needs in Europe medium-term forecast ; background technical report |
| title_exact_search | Future skill needs in Europe medium-term forecast ; background technical report |
| title_full | Future skill needs in Europe medium-term forecast ; background technical report CEDEFOP |
| title_fullStr | Future skill needs in Europe medium-term forecast ; background technical report CEDEFOP |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future skill needs in Europe medium-term forecast ; background technical report CEDEFOP |
| title_short | Future skill needs in Europe |
| title_sort | future skill needs in europe medium term forecast background technical report |
| title_sub | medium-term forecast ; background technical report |
| topic | Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd Arbeidsmarkt gtt Beroepskwalificaties gtt Berufsausbildung stw Betriebliche Berufsausbildung stw EU-Berufsbildungspolitik stw EU-Staaten stw Norwegen stw Prognose stw Schweiz stw Arbeitsmarkt Berufsausbildung (DE-588)4005871-2 gnd Beschäftigungspolitik (DE-588)4005982-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Europäische Union Arbeidsmarkt Beroepskwalificaties Berufsausbildung Betriebliche Berufsausbildung EU-Berufsbildungspolitik EU-Staaten Norwegen Prognose Schweiz Arbeitsmarkt Beschäftigungspolitik Europa (geografie) Prognoses (vorm) |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=018721039&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT europeancentreforthedevelopmentofvocationaltraining futureskillneedsineuropemediumtermforecastbackgroundtechnicalreport |