Where have all the shooting stars gone ?: economic prospects for Central, East and Southeast Europe
The report analyses recent economic developments and short- and medium-term prospects of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe including Turkey, as well as Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and China. Separate chapters present an overview of developments in the European Union'...
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Wien
Verein "Wiener Inst. für Internat. Wirtschaftsvergleiche" (WIIW)
2009
|
| Schriftenreihe: | WIIW current analyses and forecasts
4 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | The report analyses recent economic developments and short- and medium-term prospects of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe including Turkey, as well as Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and China. Separate chapters present an overview of developments in the European Union's new member states and in the future EU member states of Southeast Europe, and deal with the changing role of the IMF in the region and the latest developments in foreign trade. |
| Beschreibung: | X, 161 S. graph. Darst., Kt. 30 cm |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804139325159374848 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Where have all the shooting stars gone?
Autor: Gligorov, Vladimir
Jahr: 2009
Contents
Executive summary /
c^^JtgJ New EU member states facing recession
Slump in the main export markets, easing tensions in global financial markets 1
Sudden growth reversal of unprecedented magnitude 2
Industrial production rapidly shrinking, due to evaporating export opportunities 4
In the epicentre of the NMS crisis: developments in foreign trade 5
Absorbing the shock: exchange rates matter 8
Fiscal prudence versus demand management 13
High and low interest rates - diversified monetary policies in the NMS 18
Fragile financial stability - external financing remains a critical issue 20
Outlook: 2009 recession, 2011 recovery, 2010 betwixt and between 22
Country reports
Bulgaria: countercyclical measures help mitigate the shocks of the crisis 30
The Czech Republic: policy eased to limit the damage 34
Hungary: little manoeuvring room to cope with the recession 38
Poland: resisting recession 43
Romania: contraction in all fields 48
Slovakia: late revenge of the overambitious conversion rate 52
Slovenia: hit hard despite recovery package 56
Baltic States: squashed hopes in the realm of depression 59
^ iJ^Tlr f:uture EU member states:
/T~V ^s!Im» concerns shifting from external to fiscal deficits
Modest GDP decline thanks to a predominance of less flexible sectors 69
Diminishing trade deficits as a by-product of the current crisis 71
Large current account deficits becoming untenable 72
Low inflation pressure 75
Impact on labour markets still to rise 77
Fiscal issues, a major concern in the years to come 79
80
A cautiously positive outlook
Financial indicators for future member states ou
Country reports
Albania: you too my son? 88
Bosnia and Herzegovina: relative stability 91
Croatia: servicing foreign debt remains major weak point 95
Macedonia: lack of clarity 99
Montenegro: stability in crisis ^2
Serbia: continuous deterioration 105
Turkey: a show of confidence-or a struggle for survival? 108
IjflPHHp Selected Newly Independent States (NIS) and China
Country reports
Russia: heading for crash and clash? 112
Ukraine: back to external equilibrium 116
Kazakhstan: slipping into a mild recession 121
China: economy showing signs of bottoming out 125
Special section on the new IMF approach and the EU
Introduction 131
The model and the confusion 131
The role of the EU 134
Conclusion 135
Special section on foreign trade as a transmission channel of the global crisis
Introduction 136
Relative openness and export developments 136
Goods vs. services exports I37
Merchandise exports: volume and value changes and structure of commodity exports 139
Trade performance and exchange rate regimes 140
Conclusions ^
Appendix: Selected indicators of competitiveness 149
Tables and Figures
Summary
Table I Overview developments 2007-2008 and outlook 2009-2011 viii
Table II Central and East European new EU member states (NMS-10):
an overview of economic fundamentals, 2008 ix
Table III Future EU member states: an overview of economic fundamentals, 2008 x
New EU member states
Table 1 Extent of the growth reversal 3
Table 2 Gross fixed capital formation and consumption of households, real change
in % against preceding year 4
Table 3 Gross industrial production, real change in % against preceding year
(based on NACE Rev. 2) 5
Table 4 Foreign trade, July 2008 - April 2009 6
Table 5 Foreign trade by commodity groups, January to March 2009 7
Table 6 Share of loans in foreign currency in % of total loans, end of period 11
Table 7 Employment and unemployment, LFS definition, annual averages 19
Table 8 Foreign financial position, in % of GDP 21
Table 9 FDI inflow at the beginning of 2009, based on EUR 22
Table 10 Short-term foreign debt in % of foreign reserves (excluding gold) 23
Table 11 Fiscal balance and public debt, 2005-2011 24
Table 12 Bank loans to non-financial private sector growth in %, end of period (year-on-year) .. 25
Table 13 3-month country -BOR minus 3-month EURIBOR spread
in percentage points, average 25
Table 14 New orders index for total manufacturing, July 2008=100 26
Table 15 Gross domestic product, real change in % against preceding year 27
Figure 1 Quarterly GDP in selected regions and countries, 2004-2009, real change
in % against preceding year 1
Figure 2 Quarterly GDP in the NMS, 2007-2009, real change in % against preceding year 2
Figure 3 Consumer prices, 2007-2009, change in % against preceding year 9
Figure 4 Nominal exchange rates, 2007-2009, EUR per NCU, monthly average,
January 2007=100 9
Figure 5 Real appreciation 2006-2009, EUR per NCU, PPI-deflated, Jan 2006 = 100 10
Figure 6 Leading NB/ECB-interest rates, 2007-2009, in % p.a 17
Figure 7 Real leading NB/ECB-interest rates, 2007-2009 (CPI-deflated), in % p.a 18
Box 1 The Baltic States in a black box 11
Box 2 From labour shortages to increasing unemployment 19
Future EU member states
Table 1 Components of the Balance of Payments (BOP) EUR mn 73
Table 2 Nominal stability indicators, 1st quarter 2009, change in % against preceding year 76
Figure 1 Foreign trade, 2008-2009, EUR mn 70
Figure 2 Exchange rates, 2008-2009, EUR per NCU, January 2008=100 71
Figure 3 Consumer prices, 2008-2009, January 2008 = 100 74
Figure 4a Money M1, change in % against preceding year, 2008-2009 75
Figure 4b Money M2, change in % against preceding year, 2008-2009 75
Figure 5 Employed and unemployed persons, 2008-2009. Registration data, Jan 2008=100 ... 77
Figure 6 Gross industrial production, 2008-2009, January 2008=100 78
Figure 7 Government revenues and expenditures, Q1 2009 compared to Q1 2008,
inNCUmn 79
Figure 8 Current account balance in % of GDP 81
Figure 9a Net portfolio investment, EURmn 82
Figure 9b Net portfolio investment, change in EUR mn (year-on-year) 82
Figure 10a Net other investment, EURmn 83
Figure 10b Net other investment, change in EUR mn (year-on-year) 83
Figure 11a Short-term foreign debt in % of forex reserves (excl. gold): National statistics 83
Figure 11b Short-term foreign debt in % of forex reserves (excl. gold) International statistics 84
Figure 12 General government share in gross external debt in % 84
Figure 13 General government balance in % of GDP 84
Figure 14 Bank loans to non-financial private sector, growth in %, end of period (year-of-year) .. 85
Figure 15 3m ...BOR-3mEURIBOR spread in percentage points, average 85
Figure 16 TED spread (3m ...BOR-3mT-Bill) in percentage points, average 85
Figure 17 Household long-term foreign currency interest lending rate, average 86
Figure 18 Leverage, banking sector assets to capital ratio (NCU), end of period 86
Figure 19 Share of banks external debt in assets in %, end of period 87
Figure 20 Share of loans in foreign currency in % of total loans, end of period 87
Figure 21 Share of non-performing loans in % of total loans, end of period 87
Special section on foreign trade as a transmission channel of the global crisis
Table 1 Services exports in 2008 ^37
Table 2 Goods and services exports, change year-on-year, % 138
Table A1 Ten most important product groups in merchandise exports to the EU-27 in 2008,
SITC classification ^g
Figure 1 Merchandise exports total (fob) in CEE-SEE, January 08 to April 09
(euro-based), Jan 2008 = 100 142
Figure 2 Exports of goods and services in % of GDP, 2008 (based on customs statistics) 143
Figure 3a Petroleum and petroleum products (33 SITC group) exports of Kazakhstan
to the EU, value and volume indices, Jan 2005 = 1 144
Figure 3b Gas (34 SITC group) exports of Russia to the EU, value and volume indices,
Jan 2005 = 1 144
Figure 3c Iron and steel (67 SITC group) exports of Serbia and Ukraine to the EU,
value and volume indices, Jun 2005 = 1 144
Figure 3d Furniture and parts thereof (82 SITC group) exports of Lithuania to the EU,
value and volume indices, Jan 2005 = 1 144
Figure 3e Footwear (85 SITC group) exports of Bosnia Herzegovina and Romania
to the EU, value and volume indices, Jan 2005 = 1 144
Figure 3f Electrical apparatus for switching or protecting electrical circuits (772 SITC group)
exports of the Czech Republic and Slovenia to the EU, value and volume indices,
Jan 2005 = 1 144
Figure 3g Apparel and clothing (84 SITC group) exports of Bulgaria and Romania to the EU,
value and volume indices, Jan 2005 = 1 145
Figure 3h Parts and accessories of motor vehicles (784 SITC group) exports of the Czech
Republic and Slovenia to the EU, value and volume indices, Jan 2005 = 1 145
Figure 3i Unit values of electrical apparatus for switching or protecting electrical circuits (772
SITC group) exported by the Czech Republic and Slovenia to the EU, Jan 2005=1... 145
Figure 3j Unit values of footwear (85 SITC group) exported by Bosnia Herzegovina
and Romania to the EU, Jan 2005 = 1 145
Country reports
Table BG Bulgaria: Selected Economic Indicators 33
Table CZ Czech Republic: Selected Economic Indicators 37
Table HU Hungary: Selected Economic Indicators 42
Table PL Poland: Selected Economic Indicators 47
Table RO Romania: Selected Economic Indicators 51
Table SK Slovak Republic: Selected Economic Indicators 55
Table SI Slovenia: Selected Economic Indicators 58
Table LV Latvia: Selected Economic Indicators 66
Table EE Estonia: Selected Economic Indicators 67
Table LT Lithuania: Selected Economic Indicators 68
Table AL Albania: Selected Economic Indicators 90
Table BA Bosnia and Herzegovina: Selected Economic Indicators 94
Table HR Croatia: Selected Economic Indicators 98
Table MK Macedonia: Selected Economic Indicators 101
Table ME Montenegro: Selected Economic Indicators 104
Table RS Serbia: Selected Economic Indicators 107
Table TR Republic of Turkey: Selected Economic Indicators 111
Table RU Russia: Selected Economic Indicators 115
Table UA Ukraine: Selected Economic Indicators 120
Table KZ Kazakhstan: Selected Economic Indicators 124
Table CN China: Selected Economic Indicators 130
Appendix
Table A/1 GDP per capita at current PPPs (EUR), from 2008 at constant PPPs 150
Table A/2 Indicators of macro-competitiveness, 2001-2008, EUR based, annual averages 151
Table A/3 Indicators of macro-competitiveness, 2001-2008, annual changes in % 158
The authors of this report wish to thank Boriana Assenova, Nadja Heger, Beate
Muck, Renate Prasch, Hana Ruskova, Monika Schwarzhappel and Barbara
Swierczek (all wiiw) for statistical assistance.
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| spelling | Where have all the shooting stars gone ? economic prospects for Central, East and Southeast Europe Vladimir Gligorov ; Josef Pöschl ; Sándor Richter [et al.] Wien Verein "Wiener Inst. für Internat. Wirtschaftsvergleiche" (WIIW) 2009 X, 161 S. graph. Darst., Kt. 30 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier WIIW current analyses and forecasts 4 The report analyses recent economic developments and short- and medium-term prospects of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe including Turkey, as well as Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and China. Separate chapters present an overview of developments in the European Union's new member states and in the future EU member states of Southeast Europe, and deal with the changing role of the IMF in the region and the latest developments in foreign trade. Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd rswk-swf Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd rswk-swf Südosteuropa (DE-588)4058449-5 gnd rswk-swf Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 gnd rswk-swf Ostmitteleuropa (DE-588)4075753-5 gnd rswk-swf Ostmitteleuropa (DE-588)4075753-5 g Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 s Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 s DE-604 Südosteuropa (DE-588)4058449-5 g Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 g Gligorov, Vladimir Sonstige oth Pöschl, Josef Sonstige oth Richter, Sándor Sonstige oth WIIW current analyses and forecasts 4 (DE-604)BV042529173 4 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017697887&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Where have all the shooting stars gone ? economic prospects for Central, East and Southeast Europe WIIW current analyses and forecasts Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4066438-7 (DE-588)7635855-0 (DE-588)4058449-5 (DE-588)4075739-0 (DE-588)4075753-5 |
| title | Where have all the shooting stars gone ? economic prospects for Central, East and Southeast Europe |
| title_auth | Where have all the shooting stars gone ? economic prospects for Central, East and Southeast Europe |
| title_exact_search | Where have all the shooting stars gone ? economic prospects for Central, East and Southeast Europe |
| title_full | Where have all the shooting stars gone ? economic prospects for Central, East and Southeast Europe Vladimir Gligorov ; Josef Pöschl ; Sándor Richter [et al.] |
| title_fullStr | Where have all the shooting stars gone ? economic prospects for Central, East and Southeast Europe Vladimir Gligorov ; Josef Pöschl ; Sándor Richter [et al.] |
| title_full_unstemmed | Where have all the shooting stars gone ? economic prospects for Central, East and Southeast Europe Vladimir Gligorov ; Josef Pöschl ; Sándor Richter [et al.] |
| title_short | Where have all the shooting stars gone ? |
| title_sort | where have all the shooting stars gone economic prospects for central east and southeast europe |
| title_sub | economic prospects for Central, East and Southeast Europe |
| topic | Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaftsentwicklung Finanzkrise Südosteuropa Osteuropa Ostmitteleuropa |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017697887&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV042529173 |
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