Fundamentals of forecasting using Excel:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York, N.Y.
Industrial Press
2009
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | XII, 196 S. Ill., graph. Darst. 22 x 28 cm. + 1 CD-ROM (4 3/4 in.) |
| ISBN: | 9780831133351 083113335X |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Fundamentals of forecasting using Excel |c Kenneth D. Lawrence, Ronald K. Klimberg, Sheila M. Lawrence |
| 264 | 1 | |a New York, N.Y. |b Industrial Press |c 2009 | |
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| adam_text | FUNDAMENTALS OF FORECASTING USING EXCEL DR. KENNETH D. LAWRENCE DR.
RONALD K. KLIMBERG DR. SHEILA M. LAWRENCE INDUSTRIAL PRESS, INC. NEW
YORK, NEW YORK CHAPTER 1 CONTENTS ABOUT THE AUTHORS XI INTRODUCTION TO
FORECASTING 1.1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.2 FORECASTING 2 1.2.1 IMPORTANCE 2
1.2.2 FOUR FORECASTING FACTORS TO CONSIDER 2 1.2.3 FORECASTING METHOD
DECISION TREE 3 1.2.4 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES 4 1.3 EXCEL 5 1.3.1
INSTALLING THE DATA ANALYSIS TOOLPAK 6 REFERENCES 8 CHAPTER 2
SUMMARIZING AND DISPLAYING DATA IN EXCEL . 2.1 INTRODUCTION 9 ,9 10 2.2
SUMMARIZING CONTINUOUS DATA (DESCRIPTIVE2.XLS AND BOXPLOT.XLS) 2.2.1
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS (DESCRIPTIVE2.XLS WORKSHEET: DESCRIPTIVE) 10 2.3
GRAPHING CONTINUOUS DATA (DESCRIPTIVE, WORKSHEETS: HISTOGRAML,
HISTOGRAM2, AND TIME SERIES PLOT) 2.3.1 BOX PLOT (DESCRIPTIVE2:
WORKSHEET: DESCRIPTIVE; BOXPLOT.XLS: WORKSHEET: SIMPLE) 12 2.3.2
HISTOGRAM 13 2.3.3 TIME SERIES PLOT (WORKSHEET: TIME SERIES PLOT) 16 2.4
SUMMARIZING QUALITATIVE AND DISCRETE DATA; GRAPHS AND TABLES WITH
QUALITATIVE AND DISCRETE DATA (DESCRIPTIVE2.XLS) 17 12 VI CONTENTS
CHAPTER 3 CHAPTER 4 2.4.1 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS (DESCRIPTIVE2;
WORKSHEET: COUNTIF) 17 2.4.2 GRAPHING QUALITATIVE AND DISCRETE DATA 17
2.4.3 PIVOTTABLES WITH A ROW OR COLUMN BEING A CONTINUOUS VARIABLE 21
2.5 A GENERAL HYPOTHESIS TESTING FRAMEWORK 21 2.5.1 ONE-SAMPLE
HYPOTHESIS TESTING OF THE MEAN (CONTINUOUS DATA) 23 2.6 EXCEL NUGGETS
(DATATABLE2.XLS) 26 2.6.1 SCROLL BAR AND ONE AND TWO-WAY DATA TABLES
(WORKSHEETS: MORTL-4) 26 2.6.2 GOAL SEEK (WORKSHEET: GOAL) 29 REFERENCES
31 BASIC TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 33 3.1 INTRODUCTION 33 34 3.2.2 3.2.3
3.2.4 3.2.5 3.2.6 42 3.2 COMPONENTS OF A TIME SERIES (FILES: DATATS.XLS
AND RANDOMNESS.XLS) 3.2.1 TREND COMPONENT (WORKSHEET: TREND) 34 LINEAR
TREND ANALYSIS 34 TEST FOR SIGNIFICANT TREND 37 SEASONAL COMPONENT
(WORKSHEET: SEASONAL) 38 CYCLICAL COMPONENT 40 IRREGULAR COMPONENT
(RANDOMNESS.XLS) 41 3.3 DECOMPOSITION (DATATS.XLS) 41 3.3.1
MULTIPLICATIVE DECOMPOSITION (WITHOUT CYCLE COMPONENT) (WORKSHEET:
DECOMPL) 3.3.2 MULTIPLICATIVE DECOMPOSITION (WITH CYCLE COMPONENT) 45
3.4 MOVING AVERAGES (FILE: DATATS.XLS, WORKSHEET: MA) 48 3.5 EXPONENTIAL
SMOOTHING (WORKSHEET: EA(.L)) 50 3.5.1 OPTIMAL SMOOTHING CONSTANT 54
3.5.2 SUMMARY 55 REFERENCES 55 FORECASTING PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENTS,
TRACKING SIGNALS, AND RANDOMNESS TESTS... 57 4.1 INTRODUCTION 57 4.2
FORECAST PERFORMANCE MEASURES 58 4.3 TRACKING SIGNALS 61 4.4 RANDOMNESS
61 REFERENCES 68 FUNDAMENTALS OF FORECASTING USING EXCEL VLL CHAPTER 5
CHAPTER 6 ADVANCED TIME SERIES FORECASTING TECHNIQUES 69 5.1
INTRODUCTION 69 5.2 ADVANCED TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES 70 5.2.1 DOUBLE
MOVING AVERAGE 70 5.2.2 DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING 73 5.2.3 BROWN S
DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING 73 5.2.4 HOLT S DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL
SMOOTHING 74 5.2.5 EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING WITH A SEASONAL COMPONENT AND
WITH/WITHOUT A TREND 76 5.3 AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE
(ARIMA) MODELS 79 5.3.1 AUTOCORRELATION 79 5.3.2 DIFFERENCING 83 - 5.3.3
AUTOREGRESSIVE AND MOVING AVERAGE MODELS 84 5.3.4 ARIMA MODELS 85 5.4
INDEX NUMBERS 87 5.4.1 DEFLATING DATA 88 5.4.2 AGGREGATE INDEX NUMBERS
90 REFERENCES 91 SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS IN FORECASTING 6.1
INTRODUCTION 93 6.2 THE SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL 94 6.3
ASSUMPTIONS UNDERLYING THE SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL 94 6.4
STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE 95 6.5 PREDICTING Y 95 6.6 CORRELATION 95
6.7 COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION 96 6.8 RESIDUALS 96 6.9 STATISTICAL
INFERENCE ON THE SLOPE OF THE REGRESSION MODEL 96 6.10 TESTING FOR
FIRST-ORDER AUTOCORRELATION 98 6.10.1 THE DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC 98
6.11 AN EXAMPLE OF SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION 99 6.12 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
102 6.13 EXAMPLE PROBLEMS IN EXCEL 2007 FOR SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION
FORECASTING 93 103 VLLL CONTENTS 6.13.1 REGRESSION ANALYSIS*PROBLEM 1 IN
EXCEL 2007 103 6.13.2 SOLUTION OF PROBLEM 1 104 6.13.3 REGRESSION
ANALYSIS*PROBLEM 2 IN EXCEL 2007 106 6.13;4 SOLUTION OF PROBLEM 2 106
6.13.5 REGRESSION CHARTS 108 6.13.6 REGRESSION ANALYSIS*PROBLEM 3 IN
EXCEL 2007 110 6.13.7 SOLUTION OF PROBLEM 3 111 6.13.8 POLYNOMIAL MODEL
114 6.13.9 LOGARITHMIC MODEL 118 6.13.10 POWER MODEL 119 6.13.11
EXPONENTIAL MODEL 121 6.13.12 COMPARISON OF THE MODELS 122 6.14 EXAMPLE
PROBLEMS IN EXCEL 2007 FOR SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION FORECASTING 122
6.14.1 AUTOCORRELATION*A COMMON PROBLEM WITH TIME SERIES DATA 122 6.14.2
HETEROSCEDASTICITY: UNEQUAL ERROR VARIANCE*IDENTIFICATION AND REMEDY 124
6.14.3 SOLUTION OF HETEROSCEDASTICITY EXAMPLE 125 6.15 REGRESSION
ANALYSIS*SUMMARY OUTPUT AND RESIDUALS 126 REFERENCES 131 CHAPTER 7
MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS IN FORECASTING 133 7.1 INTRODUCTION
133 7.2 THE MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL 134 7.3 THE MULTIPLE REGRESSION
MODEL IN MATRIX TERMS 134 7.4 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE 135 7.5 F TEST FOR
THE MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL 136 7.6 COEFFICIENT OF MULTIPLE
DETERMINATION 136 7.7 INFERENCE ABOUT THE REGRESSION PARAMETERS 136 7.8
ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION 137 7.9 DIAGNOSTICS AND THEIR USE IN MULTIPLE
REGRESSION MODELS 137 7.9.1 SCATTER PLOTS 137 7.9.2 RESIDUAL PLOTS 137
7.10 AN EXAMPLE PROBLEM 137 7.11 ANOTHER EXAMPLE PROBLEM 138 7.12
QUALITATIVE VARIABLE 139 FUNDAMENTALS OF FORECASTING USING EXCEL IX
CHAPTER 8 CHAPTER 9 7.13 POLYNOMIAL REGRESSION 139 7.14 NONLINEAR
MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODELS 140 7.14.1 MULTIPLICATIVE MODEL 140 7.14.2
EXPONENTIAL MODEL 140 7.14.3 RECIPROCAL MODEL 141 7.15 VARIANCE
STABILIZING TRANSFORMATION 141 7.15.1 SQUARE ROOT TRANSFORMATION 141
7.15.2 LOGARITHMIC TRANSFORMATION 141 7.15.3 RECIPROCAL TRANSFORMATION
141 7.16 MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODELS WITH INDICATOR VARIABLES 141 7.17
MULTICOLLINEARITY 142- 7.17.1 CORRECTING THE PROBLEMS OF
MULTICOLLINEARITY 142 7.18 MULTIPLE REGRESSION EXAMPLES 143 7.18.1
MULTIPLE REGRESSION*EXAMPLE 1 143 7.18.2 FOR FURTHER INSIGHT 150 7.18.3
MULTIPLE REGRESSION EXAMPLE 2: USING CATEGORICAL VARIABLES 151
REFERENCES 155 MARKOVIAN FORECASTING MODELS 157 8.1 INTRODUCTION 157 8.2
A MARKOVIAN MODEL 158 8.3 THE FIRST-ORDER MARKOVIAN MODEL 158 8.4
COMPUTATION OF THE STEADY STATE 159 8.4.1 AN EXAMPLE PROBLEM FOR STEADY
STATE CALCULATIONS 8.4.2 PROBLEM 1*BRAND CALCULATIONS STEADY STATE 160
8.5 ABSORBING STATES IN THE MARKOV PROCESS 162 8.5.1 PROBLEM 2*ABSORBING
STATES CALCULATIONS FOR CREDIT 8.5.2 PROBLEM 3*INVENTORY QUESTIONS 165
REFERENCES 166 159 163 DIFFUSION MODELING AND FORECASTING 9.1
INTRODUCTION 167 9.2 DIFFUSION MODEL 169 9.3 ANOTHER MODEL FOR
ESTIMATORS: THE PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE USING EXCEL COMPUTATION 170 167 X
CONTENTS 9.4 EXCEL COMPUTATIONS*FORECASTING 170 9.5 A MARKOVIAN CUSTOMER
DEMAND LEVEL MODEL AND THE DIFFUSION MODEL 172 REFERENCES 173 CHAPTER 10
MISCELLANEOUS FORECASTING METHODS 175 10.1 GRAVITY MODELING 175 10.1.1
INTRODUCTION 175 10.1.2 JOURNEY-TO-WORK MODEL AND THE NEED FOR GRAVITY
MODEL CONSTRAINTS 176 10.1.3 ESTIMATION OF THE MODEL PARAMETERS 178 10.2
INPUT-OUTPUT MODELING 180 10.2.1 INTRODUCTION 180 10.2.2 REGIONAL
INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS 182 10.2.3 AN EXAMPLE PROBLEM 183 10.3 COMBINATION
OF FORECASTS 185 10.3.1 INTRODUCTION 185 10.3.2 METHODS OF COMBINING 186
10.4 COMBINED FORECASTING METHOD 187 REFERENCES FOR THE GRAVITY MODEL
190 REFERENCES FOR INPUT-OUTPUT MODELING 190 REFERENCES FOR COMBINATION
OF FORECASTS 191 INDEX 193
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| language | English |
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| spelling | Lawrence, Kenneth D. Verfasser aut Fundamentals of forecasting using Excel Kenneth D. Lawrence, Ronald K. Klimberg, Sheila M. Lawrence New York, N.Y. Industrial Press 2009 XII, 196 S. Ill., graph. Darst. 22 x 28 cm. + 1 CD-ROM (4 3/4 in.) txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Microsoft Excel (Computer file) Business forecasting Forecasting Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmensplanung (DE-588)4078609-2 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmensplanung (DE-588)4078609-2 s Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 s DE-604 Klimberg, Ronald K. Sonstige oth Lawrence, Sheila M. Sonstige oth GBV Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017600612&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Lawrence, Kenneth D. Fundamentals of forecasting using Excel Microsoft Excel (Computer file) Business forecasting Forecasting Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Unternehmensplanung (DE-588)4078609-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4358095-6 (DE-588)4078609-2 |
| title | Fundamentals of forecasting using Excel |
| title_auth | Fundamentals of forecasting using Excel |
| title_exact_search | Fundamentals of forecasting using Excel |
| title_full | Fundamentals of forecasting using Excel Kenneth D. Lawrence, Ronald K. Klimberg, Sheila M. Lawrence |
| title_fullStr | Fundamentals of forecasting using Excel Kenneth D. Lawrence, Ronald K. Klimberg, Sheila M. Lawrence |
| title_full_unstemmed | Fundamentals of forecasting using Excel Kenneth D. Lawrence, Ronald K. Klimberg, Sheila M. Lawrence |
| title_short | Fundamentals of forecasting using Excel |
| title_sort | fundamentals of forecasting using excel |
| topic | Microsoft Excel (Computer file) Business forecasting Forecasting Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Unternehmensplanung (DE-588)4078609-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Microsoft Excel (Computer file) Business forecasting Forecasting Prognoseverfahren Unternehmensplanung |
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