Known unknowns: unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Carlisle, Pa.
Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Inst. and Strategic Studies Inst. , U.S. Army War College
2008
|
| Schriftenreihe: | PKSOI papers
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | https://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB890.pdf Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | "November 2008." -- "The current defense team confronted a game-changing "strategic shock" in its first 8 months in office. The next team would be well-advised to expect the same. Defense-relevant strategic shocks jolt convention to such an extent that they force sudden, unanticipated change in the Department of Defense's (DoD) perceptions about threat, vulnerability, and strategic response. Their unanticipated onset forces the entire defense enterprise to reorient and restructure institutions, employ capabilities in unexpected ways, and confront challenges that are fundamentally different than those routinely considered in defense calculations. The likeliest and most dangerous future shocks will be unconventional. They will not emerge from thunderbolt advances in an opponent's military capabilities. Rather, they will manifest themselves in ways far outside established defense convention. Most will be nonmilitary in origin and character, and not, by definition, defense-specific events conducive to the conventional employment of the DoD enterprise. They will rise from an analytical no man's land separating well-considered, stock and trade defense contingencies and pure defense speculation. Their origin is most likely to be in irregular, catastrophic, and hybrid threats of "purpose" (emerging from hostile design) or threats of "context" (emerging in the absence of hostile purpose or design). Of the two, the latter is both the least understood and the most dangerous." -- P. vii. Includes bibliographical references (p. 37-44) |
| Beschreibung: | viii, 44 S. Ill. |
| ISBN: | 9781584873686 |
Internformat
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| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references (p. 37-44) | ||
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804139113918496768 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | KNOWN UNKNOWNS
/ FREIER, NATHAN
: [2008]
TABLE OF CONTENTS / INHALTSVERZEICHNIS
SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION : THE FAILURE OF IMAGINATION
KNOWN UNKNOWNS : PREDICTABLE BUT UNPREDICTED STRATEGIC SHOCKS
TRAPPED BY CONVENTION : SEEING THE FUTURE WE WANT?
SEEING THE WHOLE FUTURE : INCORPORATING SHOCKS IN DEFENSE STRATEGY
ROUTINIZING IMAGINATION : PLAUSIBLE UNCONVENTIONAL SHOCKS
CONCLUSION : AVOIDING THE NEXT BLUE RIBBON PANEL - OR WORSE.
ALSO AVAILABLE VIA THE INTERNET.
DIESES SCHRIFTSTUECK WURDE MASCHINELL ERZEUGT.
|
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| physical | viii, 44 S. Ill. |
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| spelling | Freier, Nathan Verfasser aut Known unknowns unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development Nathan Freier Carlisle, Pa. Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Inst. and Strategic Studies Inst. , U.S. Army War College 2008 viii, 44 S. Ill. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier PKSOI papers "November 2008." -- "The current defense team confronted a game-changing "strategic shock" in its first 8 months in office. The next team would be well-advised to expect the same. Defense-relevant strategic shocks jolt convention to such an extent that they force sudden, unanticipated change in the Department of Defense's (DoD) perceptions about threat, vulnerability, and strategic response. Their unanticipated onset forces the entire defense enterprise to reorient and restructure institutions, employ capabilities in unexpected ways, and confront challenges that are fundamentally different than those routinely considered in defense calculations. The likeliest and most dangerous future shocks will be unconventional. They will not emerge from thunderbolt advances in an opponent's military capabilities. Rather, they will manifest themselves in ways far outside established defense convention. Most will be nonmilitary in origin and character, and not, by definition, defense-specific events conducive to the conventional employment of the DoD enterprise. They will rise from an analytical no man's land separating well-considered, stock and trade defense contingencies and pure defense speculation. Their origin is most likely to be in irregular, catastrophic, and hybrid threats of "purpose" (emerging from hostile design) or threats of "context" (emerging in the absence of hostile purpose or design). Of the two, the latter is both the least understood and the most dangerous." -- P. vii. Includes bibliographical references (p. 37-44) United States Dept. of Defense Rules and practice Surprise (Military science) Military art and science Strategy Strategie (DE-588)4057952-9 gnd rswk-swf Verteidigung (DE-588)4063254-4 gnd rswk-swf USA USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Verteidigung (DE-588)4063254-4 s Strategie (DE-588)4057952-9 s DE-604 https://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB890.pdf LoC Fremddatenuebernahme application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017553263&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Freier, Nathan Known unknowns unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development United States Dept. of Defense Rules and practice Surprise (Military science) Military art and science Strategy Strategie (DE-588)4057952-9 gnd Verteidigung (DE-588)4063254-4 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4057952-9 (DE-588)4063254-4 (DE-588)4078704-7 |
| title | Known unknowns unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development |
| title_auth | Known unknowns unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development |
| title_exact_search | Known unknowns unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development |
| title_full | Known unknowns unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development Nathan Freier |
| title_fullStr | Known unknowns unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development Nathan Freier |
| title_full_unstemmed | Known unknowns unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development Nathan Freier |
| title_short | Known unknowns |
| title_sort | known unknowns unconventional strategic shocks in defense strategy development |
| title_sub | unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development |
| topic | United States Dept. of Defense Rules and practice Surprise (Military science) Military art and science Strategy Strategie (DE-588)4057952-9 gnd Verteidigung (DE-588)4063254-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | United States Dept. of Defense Rules and practice Surprise (Military science) Military art and science Strategy Strategie Verteidigung USA |
| url | https://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB890.pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017553263&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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