Practical schedule risk analysis:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Farnham, Surrey, England [u.a.]
Gower
2009
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | XIV, 223 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780566087905 |
Internformat
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| 100 | 1 | |a Hulett, David T. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Practical schedule risk analysis |c David T. Hulett |
| 264 | 1 | |a Farnham, Surrey, England [u.a.] |b Gower |c 2009 | |
| 300 | |a XIV, 223 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index | ||
| 650 | 7 | |a Project Risk Management [Knowledge Area] |2 pmcsg | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Scheduling Method |2 pmcsg | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Corporate culture | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Risk assessment | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Arbeitsvorbereitung |0 (DE-588)4002804-5 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
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| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-017544527 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804139101727752193 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Practical schedule risk analysis
Autor: Hulett, David T.
Jahr: 2009
Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Preface
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
Chapter 8
Chapter 9
Chapter 10
Chapter 11
Appendix 1
Index
vn
xi
xiii
Why Schedule Risk Analysis? Looking Beyond the Critical
Path Method
Uncertainty in Activity Durations: Using Probability
Distributions
Uncertainty Along a Schedule Path: Using Monte Carlo
Simulation
A Good Project Schedule is Needed: Critical Path Method
Scheduling 101
Collecting Risk Data: Exploring Methods and Problems
Where Parallel Paths Merge: Introducing the Merge Bias and
Risk Criticality
Probabilistic Branching: Analyzing Discrete Risk Events
Using Risks to Drive the Analysis and Prioritize Risks:
Introducing the Risk Driver Method
Schedule Contingency Plans: Using Conditional Branching
When Activity Durations Move Together: Incorporating
Correlation
Risk Management in the Organization: Identifying the Mature
Risk Management Culture
The Problem with PERT
29
47
71
99
115
133
163
179
201
207
219
List of Figures
2.1 Typical risk breakdown structure 13
2.2 Triangular distribution I 16
2.3 Beta distribution I 16
2.4 Normal distribution I 18
2.5 Uniform distribution I 18
2.6 Triangular distribution II 21
2.7 Beta distribution II 21
2.8 Normal distribution II 21
2.9 Uniform distribution II 22
2.10 Comparison of triangular and beta distributions 22
2.11 Comparison of two different beta distributions 23
2.12 Four distributions compared (35 days, 45 days, 70 days) 24
3.1 Simple one-path schedule 31
3.2 Result of simulating the simple 4-activity one path schedule 37
3.3 Input distribution 39
3.4 Cumulative distribution 40
3.5 Simple four-activity schedule simulated with only 25 iterations 41
3.6 Simple four-activity schedule simulated with 5000 iterations 42
3.7 Simulation results in days 44
4.1 Simple two-path one merge point schedule 53
4.2 Risk analysis of a schedule without constraints 54
4.3 Simulation with FNLT constraint 55
4.4 Simulation with FNLT constraint 56
4.5 Simulation with FNLT constraint on begin integration and collecting
data on project summary task 56
4.6 Example of dangling activities Design Component A has no successor 58
4.7 Adding days to dangling activities may have no impact on the
schedule 58
4.8 Activities with successors may be dangling example with start-to-
start successors 59
4.9 Activities with start-to-start successors may be dangling 59
4.10 Activities with successors may be dangling. Example with finish-to-
finish successors 60
4.11 Activities with finish-finish predecessors may be dangling 60
4.12 Parallel activities with both start-to-start and finish-to-finish logic 60
4.13 No danglers—right answer when predecessor is longer 61
4.14 No danglers—right answer when successor is longer 61
4.15 General rule about schedule logic to avoid the danglers 62
viii Practical Schedule Risk Analysis
4.16 Lags may be needed on summary schedules 63
4.17 Lags are inappropriate devices to set successors on dates 64
4.18 Use of a lag to set build on August 24 64
4.19 Use of a SNET constraint to set build on August 24 works better than
a 20-day lag when the predecessor s completion date changes 65
4.20 Find a predecessor (Design Review/Approval) 65
4.21 Apply TEST STN to testing activities before leveling 66
4.22 After resource leveling TEST STN 67
4.23 Use summary task for supplier s promise date 68
5.1 Availability bias can lead to an overestimate of risk 79
5.2 Picture of adjusting and anchoring bias producing narrow risk ranges 80
5.3 Adjustment of prior assessment about the project from new
information 82
5.4 Path distribution is too narrow if the 10 activities have a range of
from 8 days to 16 days 92
5.5 Result of path made up of ten activities with ranges of 4.5 Days, 10
days and 21 days 93
5.6 Comparing the triangle with the trigen with the extreme values
interpreted as P-15 and P-85 parameters 94
6.1 Simple two-path schedule 100
6.2 One-path project schedule 102
6.3 Schedule with three-point estimates inserted 103
6.4 Results of a Monte Carlo simulation of the simple single-path
schedule 103
6.5 Three-path schedule with the same risk on each path and a merge
point 104
6.6 Monte Carlo simulation results for the three-path schedule 104
6.7 Graphical evidence of the merge bias from Monte Carlo simulation
cumulative distributions 105
6.8 Three-path schedule with critical Component 2 successfully risk
managed 108
6.9 Risk criticality with successful mitigation of the critical path risk 109
6.10 Relative risk of the three paths in the schedule 110
6.11 Duration sensitivity between activities and risk of the total schedule 111
7.1 Probability and impact matrix for threats and opportunities—time
objective 117
7.2 One-path project schedule 118
7.3 Results of a Monte Carlo simulation of the simple single-path
schedule 119
7.4 Schedule with probabilistic branch activities added 121
7.5 Pure logic diagram of the probabilistic branch 121
7.6 Simulation results for a probabilistic branch with 30 percent
probability of occurring 123
7.7 Risk mitigation build takes 20 days longer but reduces the
probability of test failure to 10 percent 124
7.8 Effect of taking 20 more days in build to reduce the probability of
test failure to 10 percent 125
List of Figures ix
7.9 One probabilistic branch 126
7.10 Two probabilistic branches 127
7.11 Three probabilistic branches 127
7.12 Comparison of none, one, two and three probabilistic branches 128
7.13 Simple existence representation of discontinuous event 129
7.14 Results of probabilistic existence of a test failure 129
8.1 Risk: Probability 100 percent, impact range including opportunities
and threats 138
8.2 Construction activity with construction labor risk applied 139
8.3 Risk: Probability 100 percent, impact only threat 139
8.4 Design risk which is entirely a threat 140
8.5 Two risks: Probability less than 100 percent 140
8.6 Activity with risk of 30 percent probability of occurring the spike
contains slightly more than 70 percent of the probability 141
8.7 Activity with a threat risk with 60 percent probability the spike
contains 40 percent of the probability 142
8.8 Two risks: Probability of 100 percent 142
8.9 An activity that has two risk drivers assigned: 100 percent probability 143
8.10 Two risks with 100 percent probability will affect the same activity 144
8.11 Activity with 2 risk drivers of probability of occurring of less than
100 percent 144
8.12 Tornado chart showing that the technology difficulty risk is more
important than the technical labor productivity risk 145
8.13 Example of risks selected and summarized from the risk register 146
8.14 Simplified refinery construction schedule 147
8.15 Refinery schedule with background risks applied 147
8.16 Schedule risk with only estimating risk applied 148
8.17 Risks probability and impact derived from the risk interviews 149
8.18 Table of risk drivers and their assignments to schedule activities 150
8.19 Schedule risk results with all risks considered 151
8.20 Risk driver sensitivity (tornado chart) showing priority risks 155
8.21 Traditional sensitivity (tornado chart) showing priority activities 155
8.22 Schedule risk without Construction Supervision risk 156
8.23 Sensitivity of schedule when Construction Supervision risk is
eliminated 157
8.24 Effect on schedule risk as individual risks are removed in priority
order 159
9.1 New ship propulsion system summary schedule showing preferred
Plan A and backup Plan B 166
9.2 Risk ranges on Alternative A and Alternative B activities show that
Alternative A has more schedule risk 167
9.3 Without Plan B the 80th percentile is September 13, 2011 167
9.4 Schedule with Build and Test Alternative B set with a start-no-earlier-
than constraint of March 11, 2009 168
9.5 Schedule risk with trigger set at March 10, 2009 169
9.6 Schedule risk effect of a backup Plan B with a trigger set at March 10,
2009 169
x Practical Schedule Risk Analysis
9.7 Criticality analysis shows Plan A is only 32 percent likely with the
trigger date set at March 10, 2009 170
9.8 Schedule risk results with trigger set at April 15, 2009 171
9.9 Comparing no backup, early trigger and final 50-50 trigger schedules 171
9.10 Base schedule showing the jacket safely set by April 25 173
9.11 Network diagram showing the logic in the base schedule 173
9.12 Project finish date without considering the weather factor 174
9.13 Uncertainty in the schedule puts setting the jacket in the southern
winter 174
9.14 Project completion when setting the jacket does not occur during
winter 175
9.15 Mobilization of the barge is 65 percent likely to be delayed until
after winter 176
9.16 Comparing cumulative distributions with and without the winter
weather condition 177
10.1 One risk driving two activities causing them to be correlated 181
10.2 Perfect positive correlation 182
10.3 The presence of non-common or confounding risks reduces the
degree of correlation 183
10.4 Two activities with duration uncertainty but no correlation 184
10.5 One risk driver assigned to design and test activities generates perfect
correlation 185
10.6 Three risks with the same parameters 186
10.7 Assignment of three risks will generate partial correlation of 50
percent 186
10.8 Simple schedule for testing correlation 187
10.9 Results without correlation 188
10.10 Schedule risk with high correlation coefficients 189
10.11 Comparison showing the effect of strong correlation on a single-
path schedule 190
10.12 Two-path schedule for correlation comparisons 191
10.13 Two-path schedule with no correlation exhibits the merge bias 191
10.14 Two paths: Strong correlation on each path but no correlation
between paths 192
10.15 Impact of correlation on two-path schedule 193
10.16 Message from failing the Eigenvalue Test (Crystal Ball®) 196
A.I Comparison of Two Beta Distributions with the same O, M and P
values 211
A.2 Normal distribution. Mean of 220 days and standard deviation of
17.5 days 214
A.3 Checking on the PERT results for the single-path schedule for the
80th percentile; this is January 20 215
A.4 Results of a Monte Carlo simulation of the simple single-path
schedule 215
A.5 Monte Carlo simulation results for the three-path schedule 217
List of Tables
2.1 Comparison of four popular probability distributions 25
3.1 Example three-point estimates of activity duration 33
3.2 Calculations of all-optimistic and all-pessimistic results are
misleading and must not be made or reported 33
3.3 Example iterations from the simple four-activity schedule 36
3.4 Compare the accuracy of simulations of 25 and 5000 iterations 43
4.1 Uncertainty ranges on the simple schedule 54
6.1 Example of risk ranges collected during risk interviews 102
6.2 Eight possible scenarios—one indicating success meeting merge
point 106
7.1 Example of risk ranges collected during risk interviews 118
7.2 Risk ranges for activities that occur only if the article fails the test 120
8.1 Summary results from the schedule risk analysis 152
8.2 Percent contingency to different levels of confidence 152
8.3 Prioritizing individual risks to the P-80 date 158
8.4 Risk mitigation scenario specification and analysis of the results 160
9.1 Compare contingency plan contingency dates, schedule risk and
probability of getting the preferred new technology engine 172
9.2 Risk ranges on the activity durations for the base schedule 173
10.1 Correlation matrix with high correlation between each pair of
activities 189
10.2 An inconsistent correlation matrix 195
10.3 Correcting an inconsistent correlation matrix (by Crystal Ball*) 196
10.4 Correcting an inconsistent correlation matrix (By Risk+) 197
A.I PERT approach in Microsoft Project® using triangular distribution 213
A.2 Calculation of mean and standard deviation for the one-path
schedule assuming triangular distributions 213
A.3 Compare results from PERT and simulation on one-path schedule 216
A.4 Three-path schedule using PERT with triangular distributions 216
A.5 Compare results from PERT and simulation on three-path schedule 217
|
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| spelling | Hulett, David T. Verfasser aut Practical schedule risk analysis David T. Hulett Farnham, Surrey, England [u.a.] Gower 2009 XIV, 223 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Project Risk Management [Knowledge Area] pmcsg Scheduling Method pmcsg Corporate culture Risk assessment Arbeitsvorbereitung (DE-588)4002804-5 gnd rswk-swf Arbeitsvorbereitung (DE-588)4002804-5 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017544527&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
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| subject_GND | (DE-588)4002804-5 |
| title | Practical schedule risk analysis |
| title_auth | Practical schedule risk analysis |
| title_exact_search | Practical schedule risk analysis |
| title_full | Practical schedule risk analysis David T. Hulett |
| title_fullStr | Practical schedule risk analysis David T. Hulett |
| title_full_unstemmed | Practical schedule risk analysis David T. Hulett |
| title_short | Practical schedule risk analysis |
| title_sort | practical schedule risk analysis |
| topic | Project Risk Management [Knowledge Area] pmcsg Scheduling Method pmcsg Corporate culture Risk assessment Arbeitsvorbereitung (DE-588)4002804-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Project Risk Management [Knowledge Area] Scheduling Method Corporate culture Risk assessment Arbeitsvorbereitung |
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