The forensics of election fraud: Russia and Ukraine
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge [u.a.]
Cambridge Univ. Press
2009
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | XIV, 289 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780521764704 9780521748360 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The forensics of election fraud |b Russia and Ukraine |c Mikhail Myagkov, Peter C. Ordeshook, Dimitri Shakin |
| 250 | |a 1. publ. | ||
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804138879802933248 |
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| adam_text | Titel: The forensics of election fraud
Autor: Myagkov, Mikhail G.
Jahr: 2009
Contents
of i aoies page vi 1
of Figures ix
Introduction 1
A Forensics Approach to Detecting Election Fraud 12
i.i Fraud and Forensics 12
1.2 The Special Relevance of Russia and Ukraine 15
1.3 Outline 19
The Fingerprints of Fraud 30
2.1 Indicators 30
2.2 Turnout and Absolute Vote
2.3 The Distribution of Turnout 41
2.4 Stuffed Ballot Boxes versus Stolen Votes 44
2.5 The Flow of Votes 47
2.6 Evaluating Our Ecological Method 53
2.7 Simulating Fraud 59
2.8 Overview 69
Russia 7*
3.1 Suspicious Anomalies of Russian Elections 71
3.2 The Distribution of Turnout 82
3.3 Who Wins the Extra Votes 90
3.4 The Flow of Votes 101
3.5 Republics versus Oblasts 109
3.6 Trends in Russian Democracy and the zooy
Duma Vote 116
3.7 Players and Motives 135
vi Contents
4 Ukraine 2004
4.1 Rounds 1 and 2, 2004 138
4.2 December 26, 2004 162
4.3 Motives 178
5 Ukraine 2006 and 2007 183
5.1 The Parliamentary Election of 2006 183
5.2 Tfce 2007 Contest 197
5.3 Conclusions 227
6 The United States 233
6.1 California, North Carolina, and Arizona 23 3
6.2 Florida 244
6.3 Wafoo a«c( Texas 247
6.4 Ofcz o 2004 253
6.5 Conclusions 265
References 275
279
List of Tables
2.1 Average Bias for Different Estimators page 55
2.2 Flow of Votes, 2003-2005, Moscow 57
2.3 Diagnostic Statistics, Moscow 58
2.4 Flow of Votes, 2003-2005, Novosibirsk 60
2.5 Diagnostic Statistics, Novosibirsk 61
2.6 Case 1 Fraud (Votes Transferred from 2 to 1) 64
2.7 Case 1, Relationship between T and VIE 65
2.8 Case 2 Fraud (Votes Transferred from Nonvoters to 1) 66
2.9 Case 2, Relationship between T and VIE 66
2.10 Case 3 Fraud (Votes Transferred from 2 to Nonvoters) 67
2.11 Case 3, Relationship between T and VIE 68
2.12 Case 4, Fraud 69
3.1 Some Peculiar Trends in Russian Elections 72
3.2 Rayons with the Greatest Shift in Vote between
Rounds, 1996 75
3.3 Nurlatinski Rayon, Tatarstan, 2004 81
3.4 Maximum Turnout Advantage by Region 98
3.5 Number of Regions in Which a Candidate
Is Advantaged by Increased Turnout 99
3.6 The Republics and Turnout Advantage, 1996-2004 100
3.7 Estimated Flow of Votes from 1995 to :999»
1999 to 2000 102
3.8 Flow of Votes from 1999 to 2003 104
3.9 Flow of Votes from 2000 to 2004 106
3.10 Flow of Votes from 2003 to 2004 108
viii List of Tables
11ii Flow of Votes from 1999 to 2003, Republics
versus Oblasts 111
3.12 Flow of Votes from 2003 to 2004, Republics
versus Oblasts 112
3.13 T versus VIE for United Russia, Moscow,
and St. Petersburg 2007 133
4.1 Comparing the Relative Advantage of Increased
Turnout, Round 2 150
4.2 Flow of Votes, Ukraine 2004, Round 1 to Round 2 160
4.3 Suspect Votes by Different Methods 161
4.4 Flow of Votes from Round 2 to Round 3 165
4.5 Total Votes for a Candidate versus Total Cast 175
5.1 Flow of Votes from 2002 to 2006 186
5.2 Flow of Votes from 2004 to 2006 188
5.3 Outcomes of 2006 and 2007 Compared 199
5.4 Flow of Votes from 2006 to 2007 200
5.5 Volynsk Oblast, Coefficient on T by Election
District (Intercept, Rz) 210
6.1 T versus VIE for Idaho, 1992-2004 250
List of Figures
2.1 Turnout versus VIE, Russian Constitutional
Referendum 1993 page 33
2.2a Example of Potential Aggregation Error 37
2.2b Four Regions Disaggregated 37
2.3 Distribution of Coefficients for T, Russian
Constitutional Referendum 1993 41
2.4 Impact of Stuffed Ballot Boxes 43
2.5a T versus VIE, Artificial Data Absent Fraud 45
2.5b T versus VIE, Artificial Data with Stolen Votes 45
2.6 Case 1 Simulation, Distributions of Turnout 64
2.7 Case 2 Simulation, Distributions of Turnout 65
2.8 Case 3 Simulation, Distributions of Turnout 67
3.1a Turnout in 2004 versus 2000 73
3.1b Turnout in 2000 versus 1999 73
3.2a All U.S. Counties, Bush 2004 versus 2000 77
3.2b Putin s Vote Compared 77
3.3a CPRF 1999 versus 1995 79
3.3b CPRF 2003 versus 1999 79
3.3c Zyuganov 2000 versus 1996(1) 79
3.3d Haritonov 2004 versus Zyuganov 2000 80
3-3e Edinstvo and Otechestvo 1999 versus NDR 1995 80
3-3f United Russia 2003 versus Edinstvo
and Otechestvo 1999 80
3.4a Distributions of Presidential Turnout, Oblasts 84
3.4b Distributions of Duma Turnout, Oblasts 84
3.5a Distribution of Presidential Turnout, Republics 85
x List of Figures
3.5 b Distribution of Duma Turnout, Republics 85
3.6 Distribution of Turnout 2004 Compared to 2000 87
3.7a Urban versus Rural Turnout, Presidential, Oblasts 89
3.7b Urban versus Rural Turnout, Presidential, Republics 89
3.8a T versus VIE, Tatarstan 2004 92
3.8b T versus V/E, Bashkortostan 2004 92
3.8c T versus VIE, Tver 2004 92.
3.8d T versus V/E, Samara 2004 93
3.9a Presidential Turnout Distribution, Urban
Republic Rayons 123
3.9b Duma Turnout Distribution, Urban Republic Rayons 123
3.9c Turnout Distribution, Rural Oblasts 123
3.10a Turnout Distributions, 2007 versus 2003 127
3.10b Turnout Distributions, 2007 versus 2004 127
3.11a Distribution of Precinct Turnout 2007 129
3.11b Distribution of Precinct Turnout, Ukraine
Third Round 2004 129
3.12 Turnout Distributions, Presnya Rayon, Moscow 129
3.13a Turnout Distributions, Moscow, St. Petersburg
Rayons 2007 132
3.13b Turnout Distributions, Moscow, St. Petersburg
Precincts 2007 132
4.1a Turnout, 1999 and 2004 First Round, Ukraine 143
4.1b Turnout of Rounds 1 and 2 Compared, 2004, Ukraine 143
4.2 The Bump, Ukraine Round 2 144
4.3a Turnout Change between Rounds, 11:00 a.m. 146
4.3b Turnout Change between Rounds, 3:00 p.m. 146
4.3c Turnout Change between Rounds, 8:00 p.m. 146
4.4a T versus VIE, Yanukovich Rayons, Round 2 149
4.4b T versus VIE, Yushchenko Rayons, Round 2 149
4.5a T versus VIE, Kharkiv Rayons 153
4.5b T versus V/E, Dnipropetrovsk Rayons 153
4.5c T versus VIE, Luhansk Rayons 153
4.3d T versus VIE, Donetsk Rayons 154
4.5c T versus VIE, Lviv Rayons 154
4.5f T versus VIE, Ivano-Frankivs k Rayons 154
4.6a T versus VIE, Crimea and Sevastopol Rayons 157
4.6b T versus VIE, Khmel nitskyi Rayons 157
4.6c T versus VIE, Zakarpas ka Rayons 157
4.6d T versus VIE, Zhytomyr Rayons 158
4.6e T versus VIE, Odessa Rayons 158
4.7a Turnout Distributions, 2004, Rounds 2 and 3 164
List of Figures x i
4.7b Turnout Distributions, 2.004, Third Round Precincts 164
4.8a T versus VIE, Donetsk Rounds 1-3 167
4.8b T versus V/E, Luhansk Rounds 1-3 167
4.8c Distribution of V/E for Yanukovich, Donetsk 2004 167
4.9a T versus V/E, Donetsk Round 3, Precincts 168
4.9b T versus V/E, Luhansk Round 3, Precincts 168
4.10 T versus VIE, Lviv Rounds 1-3 169
4.11 T versus V/E, Lviv Round 3, Precincts 170
4.12 Regression Coefficient on Turnout, Round 3, 2004 170
4.13 Example of Aggregation Error 171
4.14a Distribution of Proportion Urban, Lviv Rayons 172
4.14b T versus V/E, Lviv Round 3, City versus Village Rayons 172
4.15a Turnout Change between Rounds 1 and 3, 11:00 a.m. 177
4.15b Turnout Change between Rounds 1 and 3, 3:00 p.m. 177
4.15c Turnout Change between Rounds 1 and 3, 8:00 p.m. 177
4.16a Against All, First Round, Yushchenko Rayons 180
4.16b Against All, First Round, Yanukovich Rayons 180
4.16c Against All, Second Round 180
5.1 Turnout Distributions, Ukraine 2006 190
5.2a T versus V/E, Party of Regions Rayons, 2006 191
5.2b T versus V/E, BYuT and Our Ukraine Rayons, 2006 191
5.3a T versus V/E, Donetsk Rayons 2006 193
5.3b T versus VIE, Luhansk Rayons 2006 193
5.3c T versus VIE, Lviv Rayons 2006 194
5.3d T versus V/E, Lviv Rayons 2006, BYuT and
Our Ukraine 194
5.4a Vote for Regions, 2006 versus 2007 203
5.4b Vote for BYuT, 2006 versus 2007 203
5.4c Vote for SPU, 2006 versus 2007 203
5.5 Turnout Distribution, 2007 204
5.6a Lviv Turnout 2004 versus 2007 Precincts 206
5.6b Lviv Turnout 2006 versus 2007 Precincts 206
5.7a T versus VIE, Lviv Oblast City Precincts 2007 207
5.7b T versus V/E, Lviv Oblast Rural (Village)
Precincts 2007 207
5.8a Volynsk and Ivano-Frankivs k Turnout,
2004 and 2007 208
5.8b Ivano-Frankivs k Turnout 2007 208
5.9a T versus V/E, Volynsk Oblast Precincts 2007 209
5.9b T versus V/E, Ivano-Frankivs k Oblast Precincts 2007 209
5.10 Donetsk Oblast Turnout 2007 211
5.11 T versus V/E, Donetsk Oblast 2007, Party of Regions 213
x i i List of Figures
5.12 T versus VIE, Donetsk Oblast 2007, SPU 213
5.13 T versus V/E, Donetsk Oblast 2007, Regions and SPU 213
5.14 Luhansk Oblast Turnout 2007 versus 2004(3) 2I5
5.15 T versus V/E, Luhansk Oblast 2007 215
5.16a T versus V/E, Donetsk 2007 Districts 48, 49,
54, 55, Regions 216
5.16b T versus VIE, Donetsk 2007 Districts 48, 49,
54, 55, SPU 216
5.16c T versus VIE, Donetsk 2007 Districts 48, 49, 54,
55, Regions and SPU 216
5.i6d T versus VIE, Donetsk 2007 Districts 39-47,
50-53, Regions 217
5.17 Distribution of SPU s Share of the Eligible Electorate,
Donetsk Precincts 2007 219
5.18a T versus V/E, Zaporizhzhia 2007, Party of Regions 221
5.18b T versus VIE, Zaporizhzhia 2007, SPU 221
5.19a T versus V/E, City of Odessa 2007 222
5.19b T versus V/E, Regions, Odessa Oblast,
Districts 134-141 222
5.19c T versus V/E, SPU, Odessa Oblast, Districts 134-141 222
5.i9d T versus VIE, Regions and SPU, Odessa Oblast,
Districts 134-141 223
5.20 Grading the SPU versus Regions and the CPU, 2007 225
5.21 T versus VIE, If Fraud Had Been Done with Skill 226
6.1a Turnout in San Francisco County Precincts 2004 237
6.1b T versus VIE, San Francisco County Precincts 2004 237
6.2a T versus VIE, North Carolina, 2004, Bush Precincts 239
6.2b T versus VIE, North Carolina, 2004, Kerry Precincts 239
6.2c Turnout Distribution, North Carolina, 2004 239
6.3a T versus VIE, Mecklenburg County, North
Carolina, All Precincts 240
6.3b T versus VIE, Mecklenburg County, North
Carolina, Bush Precincts 240
6.3c T versus V/£, Mecklenburg County, North
Carolina, Kerry Precincts 240
6.4a Turnout Distribution, Arizona 2004 243
6.4b T versus VIE, Arizona 2004, All Precincts 243
6.4c T versus V/£, Arizona 2004, Bush Precincts 243
6.4d T versus VIE, Arizona 2004, Kerry Precincts 244
6.5a Turnout Distribution, Dade County, Florida 2000 245
6.5b T versus VIE, Dade County, Florida,
Gore Precincts 2000 245
List of Figures xiii
6.5c T versus VIE, Dade County, Florida,
Bush Precincts 2000 245
6.6 T versus VIE, Broward County, Florida,
All Precincts 2000 246
6.7a Turnout Distribution, Idaho 247
6.7b T versus V/E, Idaho, All Precincts 2004 248
6.8a T versus V/E, Idaho, Kerry Precincts 2004 248
6.8b T versus V/E, Idaho, Bush Precincts 2004 248
6.9 Turnout Distribution, Texas Counties 2004 251
6.10a T versus VIE, Texas 2004, All Counties 251
6.10b T versus VIE, Texas 2004, Bush Counties 251
6.11a Turnout Distribution, Franklin County, Ohio, 2000 253
6.nb Turnout Distribution, Franklin County, Ohio, 2004 254
6.12 Turnout Distribution, Cuyahoga County, Ohio, 2004 254
6.13a T versus VIE, Franklin County, Ohio,
Bush Precincts 2000 255
6.13b T versus VIE, Franklin County, Ohio,
Gore Precincts 2000 255
6.14a T versus VIE, Franklin County, Ohio,
Bush Precincts 2004 255
6.14b T versus VIE, Franklin County, Ohio,
Kerry Precincts 2004 256
6.15a T versus VIE, Cuyahoga County, Ohio,
Bush Precincts 2004 256
6.15b T versus V/E, Cuyahoga County, Ohio,
Kerry Precincts 2004 256
6.16a Turnout Distribution, Hamilton County,
Ohio, 2004 257
6.16b T versus VIE, Hamilton County, Ohio,
Bush Precincts 2004 258
6.16c T versus VIE, Hamilton County, Ohio,
Kerry Precincts 2004 258
6.17a Turnout Distributions, Hamilton County,
Ohio, 2000 259
6.17b Turnout Distributions, Hamilton County,
Ohio, 1996 259
6.17c Turnout Distributions, Hamilton County,
Ohio, 1992 259
6.18a T versus VIE, Hamilton County, Ohio,
Bush Precincts 2000 260
6.18b T versus VIE, Hamilton County, Ohio,
Gore Precincts 2000 260
x i v List of Figures
6.19a T versus VIE, Hamilton County, Ohio,
Dole Precincts 1996 261
6.19b T versus VIE, Hamilton County, Ohio,
Clinton Precincts 1996 261
6.20a T versus V/E, Hamilton County, Ohio,
Bush Precincts 1992 262
6.20b T versus VIE, Hamilton County, Ohio,
Clinton Precincts 1992 262
6.20c T versus VIE, Hamilton County, Ohio,
Bush Precincts 1992 262
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Myagkov, Mikhail G. Ordeshook, Peter C. 1942- Shakin, Dimitri 1979- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)138731861 (DE-588)132000598 (DE-588)138731888 |
| author_facet | Myagkov, Mikhail G. Ordeshook, Peter C. 1942- Shakin, Dimitri 1979- |
| author_role | aut aut aut |
| author_sort | Myagkov, Mikhail G. |
| author_variant | m g m mg mgm p c o pc pco d s ds |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV035435556 |
| callnumber-first | J - Political Science |
| callnumber-label | JN6699 |
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| dewey-ones | 363 - Other social problems and services |
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| dewey-tens | 360 - Social problems and services; associations |
| discipline | Soziologie Mathematik |
| edition | 1. publ. |
| era | Geschichte 2004-2007 gnd Geschichte 1995-2007 gnd |
| era_facet | Geschichte 2004-2007 Geschichte 1995-2007 |
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| geographic | USA Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd Ukraine (DE-588)4061496-7 gnd |
| geographic_facet | USA Russland Ukraine |
| id | DE-604.BV035435556 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:35:12Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780521764704 9780521748360 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2008038919 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-017355889 |
| oclc_num | 245596444 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-384 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-384 |
| physical | XIV, 289 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publishDateSearch | 2009 |
| publishDateSort | 2009 |
| publisher | Cambridge Univ. Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Myagkov, Mikhail G. Verfasser (DE-588)138731861 aut The forensics of election fraud Russia and Ukraine Mikhail Myagkov, Peter C. Ordeshook, Dimitri Shakin 1. publ. Cambridge [u.a.] Cambridge Univ. Press 2009 XIV, 289 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Geschichte 2004-2007 gnd rswk-swf Geschichte 1995-2007 gnd rswk-swf Elections Corrupt practices Russia (Federation) Elections Corrupt practices Ukraine Elections Corrupt practices United States Wahldelikt (DE-588)4133588-0 gnd rswk-swf USA Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf Ukraine (DE-588)4061496-7 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g Wahldelikt (DE-588)4133588-0 s Geschichte 1995-2007 z DE-604 Ukraine (DE-588)4061496-7 g Geschichte 2004-2007 z Ordeshook, Peter C. 1942- Verfasser (DE-588)132000598 aut Shakin, Dimitri 1979- Verfasser (DE-588)138731888 aut HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017355889&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Myagkov, Mikhail G. Ordeshook, Peter C. 1942- Shakin, Dimitri 1979- The forensics of election fraud Russia and Ukraine Elections Corrupt practices Russia (Federation) Elections Corrupt practices Ukraine Elections Corrupt practices United States Wahldelikt (DE-588)4133588-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4133588-0 (DE-588)4076899-5 (DE-588)4061496-7 |
| title | The forensics of election fraud Russia and Ukraine |
| title_auth | The forensics of election fraud Russia and Ukraine |
| title_exact_search | The forensics of election fraud Russia and Ukraine |
| title_full | The forensics of election fraud Russia and Ukraine Mikhail Myagkov, Peter C. Ordeshook, Dimitri Shakin |
| title_fullStr | The forensics of election fraud Russia and Ukraine Mikhail Myagkov, Peter C. Ordeshook, Dimitri Shakin |
| title_full_unstemmed | The forensics of election fraud Russia and Ukraine Mikhail Myagkov, Peter C. Ordeshook, Dimitri Shakin |
| title_short | The forensics of election fraud |
| title_sort | the forensics of election fraud russia and ukraine |
| title_sub | Russia and Ukraine |
| topic | Elections Corrupt practices Russia (Federation) Elections Corrupt practices Ukraine Elections Corrupt practices United States Wahldelikt (DE-588)4133588-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Elections Corrupt practices Russia (Federation) Elections Corrupt practices Ukraine Elections Corrupt practices United States Wahldelikt USA Russland Ukraine |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017355889&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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