Rational decision-making for managers: an introduction
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Chichester
Wiley
2009
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Literaturverz. S. 326 - 330 u. Index |
| Beschreibung: | XII, 340 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780470519653 |
Internformat
MARC
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | RATIONAL DECISION-MAKING FOR MANAGERS AN INTRODUCTION SARAH KEAST AND
MICHAEL TOWLER WILEY A JOHN WILEY AND SONS, LTD., PUBLICATION CONTENTS
ABOUT THE AUTHORS IX ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS X PREFACE XI PART 1 THE DECISION
CONTEXT 1 1 INTRODUCTION TO DECISION-MAKING INTRODUCTION WHAT IS A
DECISION? UNCERTAINTY AND RISK IN DECISION-TAKING PROBABILITY RATIONAL
DECISION-TAKER BIASES DESCRIPTIVE, NORMATIVE, AND PRESCRIPTIVE
DECISION-MAKING MODELS WHO SHOULD PARTICIPATE IN A DECISION PROCESS?
OVERVIEW OF TEXT FURTHER READING 2 TIME SERIES FORECASTING INTRODUCTION
CREATING A TIME SERIES FORECAST - OVERVIEW DATA TYPES IDENTIFYING TRENDS
DECOMPOSITION FINDING THE SEASONAL COMPONENT AVERAGE AND MOVING AVERAGE
FORECASTS SIMPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING 3 3 4 7 8 9 10 12 13 15 17 18 21
21 22 22 25 31 33 39 41 VI / CONTENTS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FOR DATA
WITH A TREND 46 EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FOR NON-STATIONARY DATA WITH
SEASONALITY 49 STANDARD DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST 54 CHOOSING
APPROPRIATE FORECASTING MODELS 57 TRANSFORMING DATA 58 ALTERNATIVE TIME
SERIES FORECASTING TECHNIQUES 59 SUMMARY 59 FURTHER READING 60
EXPLANATORY AND QUALITATIVE FORECASTING 65 INTRODUCTION 65 QUANTITATIVE
EXPLANATORY FORECASTING 66 LINEAR REGRESSION 67 ELICITATION OF AN
EXPERT S PROBABILITIES 80 STRUCTURED GROUP PROCESSES 82 SCENARIO
ANALYSIS 84 SUMMARY 85 FURTHER READING 86 PART 2 ONE-OFF AND REPEAT
DECISIONS 89 4 INVENTORY MANAGEMENT 91 INTRODUCTION 91 THE FIXED ORDER
QUANTITY INVENTORY SYSTEM 92 THE NEWSVENDOR MODEL 110 THE ECONOMIC ORDER
QUANTITY MODEL WITH KNOWN STOCK-OUT COSTS 114 SUMMARY 115 FURTHER
READING 116 5 PAYOFF MATRICES 121 INTRODUCTION 121 PAYOFF MATRICES WITH
CERTAINTY 123 PAYOFF MATRICES WITH MULTIPLE FUTURE STATES AND A DOMINANT
STRATEGY 123 PAYOFF MATRICES WITH STRICT UNCERTAINTY 124 PAYOFF MATRICES
WITH UNCERTAINTY OR RISK 134 CHOOSING A DECISION CRITERION 136 THE VALUE
OF PERFECT INFORMATION 139 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 142 SUMMARY , 144
FURTHER READING 145 CONTENTS / VII 6 LINEAR PROGRAMMING 151
INTRODUCTION 151 SOLVING THE LINEAR PROGRAMME 154 CORNER METHOD 160
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 166 CHANGING CONSTRAINTS 166 CHANGING THE OBJECTIVE
FUNCTION 169 USING EXCEL SOLVER 171 INTEGER PROGRAMMING 182 FORMULATING
DECISION-MAKING PROBLEMS AS LINEAR PROGRAMMES 185 SUMMARY 187 FURTHER
READING 188 7 SIMULTANEOUS MOVE GAMES 193 INTRODUCTION 193 TERMINOLOGY
194 ZERO-SUM GAMES 195 NON-ZERO-SUM GAMES 200 MIXED STRATEGIES FOR
PLAYERS WITH THREE OR MORE STRATEGIES 207 CONTINUOUS STRATEGIES 212
N-PLAYER GAMES 214 SUMMARY 215 FURTHER READING 216 PART 3 SEQUENTIAL
DECISIONS 223 8 ROBUSTNESS ANALYSIS 225 INTRODUCTION 225 ROBUSTNESS
ANALYSIS 227 ROBUSTNESS ANALYSIS AS A FRAMEWORK: LITERATURE EXAMPLES 234
FURTHER READING 238 9 DECISION TREE ANALYSIS 239 INTRODUCTION 239
DECISION TREE NOTATION 240 CONSTRUCTING A DECISION TREE 240 ROLLING BACK
A DECISION TREE 1: SEQUENTIAL DECISION AND EVENT NODES 241 ROLLING BACK
A DECISION TREE 2: WAITING FOR UNCERTAINTY TO RESOLVE 244 ROLLING BACK A
DECISION TREE 3: EXPLORATORY ACTIONS AND POSTERIOR PROBABILITIES 245
VIII / CONTENTS INTRODUCTION TO SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 250 UNIVARIATE
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 251 BIVARIATE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 260 AT-WAY
(MULTIVARIATE) SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 260 SUMMARY OF THE DECISION TREE
ANALYSIS METHOD 262 CHAPTER APPENDIX. A BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO MONTE
CARLO SIMULATION 262 FURTHER READING 266 10 SEQUENTIAL GAMES 275
INTRODUCTION 275 EXTENSIVE FORM 276 ROLLBACK REVISITED 277 ASYMMETRY OF
INFORMATION 280 SIGNALS 284 SIGNAL JAMMING AND SCREENING 287 BARGAINING
287 SUMMARY 290 FURTHER READING 291 APPENDIX: MATHEMATICS REVISION 297
REFERENCES 327 INDEX 331
|
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| callnumber-search | HD30.23 |
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| dewey-full | 658.4/03 |
| dewey-hundreds | 600 - Technology (Applied sciences) |
| dewey-ones | 658 - General management |
| dewey-raw | 658.4/03 |
| dewey-search | 658.4/03 |
| dewey-sort | 3658.4 13 |
| dewey-tens | 650 - Management and auxiliary services |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:34:56Z |
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| isbn | 9780470519653 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Keast, Sarah Verfasser aut Rational decision-making for managers an introduction Sarah Keast and Michael Towler Chichester Wiley 2009 XII, 340 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Literaturverz. S. 326 - 330 u. Index Decision making Towler, Michael Verfasser aut GBV Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017344656&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Keast, Sarah Towler, Michael Rational decision-making for managers an introduction Decision making |
| title | Rational decision-making for managers an introduction |
| title_auth | Rational decision-making for managers an introduction |
| title_exact_search | Rational decision-making for managers an introduction |
| title_full | Rational decision-making for managers an introduction Sarah Keast and Michael Towler |
| title_fullStr | Rational decision-making for managers an introduction Sarah Keast and Michael Towler |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rational decision-making for managers an introduction Sarah Keast and Michael Towler |
| title_short | Rational decision-making for managers |
| title_sort | rational decision making for managers an introduction |
| title_sub | an introduction |
| topic | Decision making |
| topic_facet | Decision making |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017344656&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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