Monetary union impact on government debt: lessons for European monetary union enlargement
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Abschlussarbeit Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Köln
Univ., Inst. für Wirtschaftspolitik
2009
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Untersuchungen zur Wirtschaftspolitik
135 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XIII, 334 S. graph. Darst. 210 mm x 148 mm |
| ISBN: | 9783933812230 |
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Titel: Monetary Union impact on government debt
Autor: Paulus, Philipp
Jahr: 2009
Contents
A. Introduction.I
1. Government debt in a monetary union.1
2. A short history of research on the subject.8
3. The approach used.13
3.1. Distinguishing features.13
3.2. A simple model of new government debt.18
B. Macroeconomic environment of government debt.23
1. The dynamics of government debt in the macroeconomic environment.23
2. Impact of a monetary union on the macroeconomic environment.29
2.1. Inflation and monetary integration.31
2.2. Real GDP growth and monetary integration.38
3. Hypotheses for the government budget.47
C. The demand for government debt in a monetary union.53
1. The case of benevolent governments.53
1.1. Public investment, imperfect capital markets and tax smoothing.54
1.2. Macroeconomic stabilisation.60
1.3. Income redistribution between countries and people.65
1.4. When all else fails: When and when not to default.70
2. The case of non-benevolent governments.75
2.1. Political-economic incentives irrespective of the exchange rate regime.75
2.2. Monetary union effects.80
3. Hypotheses for government debt demand.86
D. The supply of government debt in a monetary union.91
1. Monetary union effects abstracting from capital market failures.91
1.1. General remarks on market discipline.91
1.2. Risks of debt affected by a monetary union.94
2. Possible capital market failures within or without a monetary union.98
2.1. Asymmetric information.98
2.2. Externalities and systemic risk.103
2.3. Natural monopolistic power and distorted competition.108
3. Existing regulation of financial markets: A source of concern?.113
4. Hypotheses for the supply of government debt.124
E. Strategic behaviour of governments.^-27
1. Government debt demand externalisation.127
2. The transfer of the bailout problem to a union central bank.137
3. Game theory considerations.142
3.1. Insights from the literature.142
3.2. A simple model for an growing monetary union.145
4. Hypotheses of institutional interactions for government debt.150
F. Empirical analysis of EMU members and EMU candidates.153
1. An overview of the empirical literature.155
1.1. EMU countries and government debt dynamics.155
1.2. Experiences with exchange rate regimes in emerging markets.158
1.3. Experiences with federal fiscal discipline in industrial countries.160
2. Empirical evidence for EMU concerning the theories of part B-E.166
2.1. On macroeconomic factors.166
2.2. On government debt demand factors.172
2.3. On government debt supply factors.175
2.4. The potential and evidence for the bailout problem in the EMU.180
3. An empirical model of government debt and the EMU.187
3.1. Model specification.187
3.2. Data used.191
3.3. Estimation results.198
3.4. Assessment of the robustness of the estimation results.209
4. Country-specific effects.213
4.1. Incumbent EMU members and other OECD countries.213
4.2. Central and Eastern European countries.217
5. Summarising appraisal.226
G. Economic Policy Implications.-----------._._._231
1. On the regulation of government debt demand in a monetary union.233
1.1. General considerations on fiscal rules.233
1.2. A critical look at the Stability and Growth Pact.242
2. On the regulation of government debt supply.249
2.1. Guaranteeing well-functioning capital markets.249
2.2. The financial market supervisory process in the EMU.258
3. On the role of the ECB and the handling of government debt crises.266
3.1. The optimum bailout strategy for a union central bank.266
3.2. Open issues for the ECB.273
G.4. Summary.279
H. Conclusion. 283
Biblioeraohv.287
List of charts and tables
Chart A.].: OECD, EMU and CEE countries aggregate gross government debt, percent of
GDP.3
Chart A.2.: Central government debt of major industrial countries (G7)from 1881-1995,
percent of GDP.13
Chart A.2.: The basic model for new government debt.22
Chart B: Monetary union - The changed macroeconomic environment effect on supply and
demand.51
Chart C.I.: Real growth rates and real interest rates in EMU.56
Chart C.2.: Monetary union case of fiscal expansion.63
Chart C.3.: Major industrial country government expenditure in the 20th century, percent of
GDP.66
Chart C.4.: Demand for government debt modified by government tasks and incentives.89
Chart D. 1.: Big banks do not necessarily generate more profit than small banks.Ill
Chart D.2.: Supply starting to react more to interest rate changes.126
Chart F.I.: Spreads of government bond yields in Germany-EMU members, Canada-
provincial debt, 2002. In basis points.162
Chart F.2.: Inflation performance of major central banks. Annual consumer price inflation in
%.168
Chart F.3.: Convergence of government bond yields in Europe ahead of the EMU and in the
EMU. 10-year government bond yields in °/o.172
Chart F. 4.: Public Investment in EMU countries (black) before and after 1999. A verage % of
GDP of the years 1991-1998 and 1999-2006.173
Chart F.5.: EMU primary budget balances by country sizes. Averages of respective countries
1999-2006, % of GDP.174
Chart F. 6.: Foreign ownership of banks in EMU. Percent of assets of domestic bank assets
held in majority by foreign banks.177
Chart F. 7.: Public ownership of banks. Percent of domestic bank assets held in majority by
the public sector.179
Chart F. 8.: Domestic government debt on EMU bank balance sheets and gross debt
development.182
Chart F.9.: Government debt by ownership in EMU.183
Chart F. 10.: Government ownership of banks and gross debt reduction 1999-2005.208
Chart F.ll.: Fiscal indices and government debt dynamics in EMU countries, changes
between 2004 and 1991.215
Chart F.12.: Relative unit labour costs before and after EMU.216
Chart F. 13.: Net CEE seignorage gains as percent of GDP (no growth convergence assumed)
.220
Chart F. 14.: EU accession net costs*, percent of GDP, annual average 2004-2006.221
Chart F. 15.: CEE foreign ownership of banks, percent of domestic bank assets.224
Chart G. 1.: The procedure of the Excessive Deficit procedure of the Stability and Growth
Pact.244
YTI
Table A: Predictions of the monetary union impact on fiscal policy and public finance by
the European Commission in 1990.8
Table E: Payoff matrix for governments in a monetary union.147
Table F.I.: Overview of studies looking for an EMU impact on government debt or
budget activity.157
Table F.2. Overview of variables.192
Table F.3.: Estimation results of base model with extensions (l)-(9).199
Table F.4.: Estimation results of base model with extensions (10)-(18).200
Table F.5.: Estimation results with EMU interaction dummies (19)-(28).202
Table F.6. Estimation results with EMU interaction dummies (29)-(39).204
Table F.7. Estimation results of large specifications (40)-(43).207
Table F.8.1981-2006 experience (base model and interactions).210 |
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| spelling | Paulus, Philipp Verfasser aut Monetary union impact on government debt lessons for European monetary union enlargement Philipp Paulus Köln Univ., Inst. für Wirtschaftspolitik 2009 XIII, 334 S. graph. Darst. 210 mm x 148 mm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Untersuchungen zur Wirtschaftspolitik 135 Zugl.: Köln, Univ., Diss., 2009 Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd rswk-swf Debt Management (DE-588)4121127-3 gnd rswk-swf Mitgliedsstaaten (DE-588)4170174-4 gnd rswk-swf Währungsunion (DE-588)4188829-7 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 b Mitgliedsstaaten (DE-588)4170174-4 s Währungsunion (DE-588)4188829-7 s Debt Management (DE-588)4121127-3 s b DE-604 Untersuchungen zur Wirtschaftspolitik 135 (DE-604)BV000010744 135 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017334936&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Paulus, Philipp Monetary union impact on government debt lessons for European monetary union enlargement Untersuchungen zur Wirtschaftspolitik Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd Debt Management (DE-588)4121127-3 gnd Mitgliedsstaaten (DE-588)4170174-4 gnd Währungsunion (DE-588)4188829-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)5098525-5 (DE-588)4121127-3 (DE-588)4170174-4 (DE-588)4188829-7 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Monetary union impact on government debt lessons for European monetary union enlargement |
| title_auth | Monetary union impact on government debt lessons for European monetary union enlargement |
| title_exact_search | Monetary union impact on government debt lessons for European monetary union enlargement |
| title_full | Monetary union impact on government debt lessons for European monetary union enlargement Philipp Paulus |
| title_fullStr | Monetary union impact on government debt lessons for European monetary union enlargement Philipp Paulus |
| title_full_unstemmed | Monetary union impact on government debt lessons for European monetary union enlargement Philipp Paulus |
| title_short | Monetary union impact on government debt |
| title_sort | monetary union impact on government debt lessons for european monetary union enlargement |
| title_sub | lessons for European monetary union enlargement |
| topic | Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd Debt Management (DE-588)4121127-3 gnd Mitgliedsstaaten (DE-588)4170174-4 gnd Währungsunion (DE-588)4188829-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Europäische Union Debt Management Mitgliedsstaaten Währungsunion Hochschulschrift |
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