From growth to convergence: Asia's next two decades
The economic landscape of Asia has transformed in the past two decades. Regional economies are linked, & have achieved prosperity. The region must now look to the future. This book explores issues in Asia's long-term development, identifying conditions for sustained growth & income conv...
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Basingstoke [u.a.]
Palgrave Macmillan
2009
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | The economic landscape of Asia has transformed in the past two decades. Regional economies are linked, & have achieved prosperity. The region must now look to the future. This book explores issues in Asia's long-term development, identifying conditions for sustained growth & income convergence. |
| Beschreibung: | "The collection of papers in this volume was prepared as part of the technical assistance project 'Long-Term Scenarios for Asian Growth and Trade' of the Asian Development Bank"--Acknowledgments Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | XVI, 335 S. graph. Darst. |
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FROM GROWTH TO CONVERGENCE ASIA'S NEXT TWO DECADES EDITED BY FAN ZHAI
MACMIILAN CONTENTS ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS XII PREFACE XIII
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . XV CONTRIBUTORS XVI 1 FROM GROWTH TO CONVERGENCE: AN
INTRODUCTION 1 FAN ZHAI, WILLIAM JAMES, AND FRANK HARRIGAN 1.1
DEVELOPING ASIA'S NEXT TWO DECADES: FIVE CONDITIONS FOR HIGH BUT
CONVERGENT ECONOMIC GROWTH 1 1.2 ASIAN DRAMA REDUX: THE EMERGENCE OF
INDUSTRIALIZED ASIA IN THE 20 TH CENTURY 3 1.3 ASIA'S GROWTH DYNAMICS 5
1.4 AN AGENDA FOR REGIONAL CONVERGENCE 13 1.5 CONCLUSIONS 31 ENDNOTES 35
REFERENCES 37 2 WHY ARE BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS SO POPULAR, AND DOES
IT MATTER? 40 JAYANT MENON COMMENTARY: SIOW YUE CHIA 2.1 INTRODUCTION 40
2.2 BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS: SOME FACTS AND FIGURES 41 2.3 WHY ARE
BTAS SO POPULAR? 43 2.4 IMPACT ON MULTILATERALISM AND THE WORLD TRADE
SYSTEM 52 2.5 CONCLUSIONS AND THE FUTURE LANDSCAPE OF WORLD TRADE 56
ENDNOTES 59 REFERENCES 60 APPENDIX 62 VI FROM GROWTH TO CONVERGENCE:
ASIA'S NEXT TWO DECADES 3 REGIONALIZING BILATERAL FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
IN ASIA 74 FRANK HARRIGAN, WILLIAM JAMES, MICHAEL PLUMMER, AND FAN ZHAI
COMMENTARY: PATRICK LOW 3.1 INTRODUCTION 74 3.2 BEST PRACTICES IN
PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS 76 3.3 EVALUATION OF HUB-AND-SPOKE VS.
REGIONWIDE ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN ASIA 87 3.4 MEASURING THE IMPACT OF
GOOD-PRACTICE AGREEMENTS 89 3.5 CONCLUSION 96 ENDNOTES 97 REFERENCES 98
4 INFRASTRUCTURE AS A CATALYST FOR REGIONAL INTEGRATION, GROWTH, AND
ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE: SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR ASIA 108 DAVID ROLAND-HOIST
COMMENTARY: DAVID CANNING 4.1 INTRODUCTION 108 4.2 MOTIVATION AND
BACKGROUND 110 4.3 OVERVIEW OFTHECGE MODEL 118 4.4 OVERVIEW OF INITIAL
CONDITIONS 119 4.5 SCENARIO ANALYSIS 124 4.6 INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
GOALS 137 4.7 CONCLUDING REMARKS 138 ENDNOTES 140 REFERENCES 140
APPENDIX 144 5 UNLOCKING THE TRADE POTENTIAL IN LEAST-DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES: A CGE INVESTIGATION FOR BANGLADESH 150 FAN ZHAI COMMENTARY:
RICHARD POMFRET 5.1 INTRODUCTION 150 5.2 TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND TRADE
PERFORMANCE IN BANGLADESH 152 5.3 THE MODEL 155 5.4 AN ESTIMATION OF
BANGLADESH'S TRADE COSTS 159 5.5 SIMULATIONS 164 5.6 CONCLUSIONS 168
ENDNOTES 170 REFERENCES 171 VII 6 ECONOMIC GROWTH, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE,
AND THE PATTERNS OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL TRADE IN ASIA 175 THOMAS W.
HERTEL, CARLOS E. LUDENA, AND ALIA A. GOLUB X COMMENTARY: ALLAN RAE 6.1
MOTIVATION AND OVERVIEW 175 6.2 DRIVERS OF CHANGE: INCOME AND POPULATION
176 6.3 DRIVERS OF CHANGE: ENDOWMENTS 180 6.4 DRIVERS OF CHANGE:
TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS 182 6.5 IMPLICATIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT
AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 189 6.6 IMPLICATIONS FOR STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND
FUTURE PATTERNS OF TRADE 191 6.7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 199 ENDNOTES
200 REFERENCES 200 APPENDIX 203 7 ENERGY SCENARIOS FOR EAST ASIA,
2005-2025 211 SERGEY PALTSEV AND JOHN REILLY COMMENTARY: DAVID
ROLAND-HOIST 7.1 INTRODUCTION 211 7.2 ECONOMIC AND ENERGY INDICATORS,
1970-2000 212 7.3 THE EPPA MODEL 217 7.4 BASELINE SCENARIO 218 7.5
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS 225 7.6 CONCLUSIONS 234 ENDNOTES 236 REFERENCES
236 8 PROJECTED ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA AND
INDIA: THE ROLE OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE 243 ROD TYERS, JANE GOLLEY, AND
IAIN BAIN COMMENTARY: DAVID CANNING 8.1 INTRODUCTION 243 8.2 DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 245 8.3 MODELING DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC
CHANGE 248 8.4 CONSTRUCTING THE BASELINE ECONOMIC SCENARIO 255 8.5
ALTERNATIVE FERTILITY POLICIES 260 8.6 CONCLUSION 265 ENDNOTES 267
REFERENCES 269 VIII FROM GROWTH TO CONVERGENCE: ASIA'S NEXT TWO DECADES
9 GLOBAL GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION: ASIA AND ITS PROGRESSION TO DEVELOPED
STATUS 284 MAURIZIO BUSSOLO, RAFAEL E. DE HOYOS, DENIS MEDVEDEV, AND
DOMINIQUE VAN DER MENSBRUGGHE '* COMMENTARY: ROD TYERS 9.1 INTRODUCTION
284 9.2 METHODOLOGY 286 9.3 THE WORLD ECONOMY IN 2030 289 9.4 GLOBAL
INCOME DISTRIBUTION: IMPACTS IN ASIA AND THE EMERGING MIDDLE CLASS 300
9.5 CONCLUSIONS 311 ENDNOTES 312 REFERENCES 314 APPENDIX 316 INDEX 325
TABLES 1.1 SPEEDING OF POPULATION AGING IN DEVELOPING ASIA AND
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES 26 1.2 CHANGES IN INEQUALITY IN SELECTED DEVELOPING
ASIAN COUNTRIES 28 3.1 SIMULATION ASSUMPTIONS 91 3.2 WELFARE EFFECTS OF
TRADE LIBERALIZATION 93 4.1 AID DEPENDENCY IN EAST ASIA AND THE PACIFIC,
SELECTED LOW- AND MIDDLE- INCOME COUNTRIES, 2004 125 4.2 ESTIMATED
CHANGES IN BASELINE AGGREGATE INVESTMENT 128 4.3 MACROECONOMIC RESULTS:
ANNUAL AND CUMULATIVE REAL GDP, 2005-2025 129 4.4 ANNUALIZED GROWTH RATE
OF REAL GDP 129 4.5 MARGIN/PRICE RESULTS: CUMULATIVE REAL GDP, 2006-2025
131 4.6 MARGIN/PRICE RESULTS: ANNUALIZED GROWTH RATE OF REAL GDP 131 4.7
ENDOGENOUS GROWTH RESULTS: CUMULATIVE REAL GDP, 2006-2025 135 4.8
ENDOGENOUS GROWTH RESULTS: ANNUALIZED GROWTH RATE OF REAL GDP 135 5.1
COMPARISON OF COSTS OF DOING BUSINESS 156 5.2 BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT RANK,
BANGLADESH 156 5.3 COMPARISON OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND CUSTOMS CLEARANCE
INDICATORS 157 |
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| title | From growth to convergence Asia's next two decades |
| title_auth | From growth to convergence Asia's next two decades |
| title_exact_search | From growth to convergence Asia's next two decades |
| title_full | From growth to convergence Asia's next two decades ed. by Fan Zhai |
| title_fullStr | From growth to convergence Asia's next two decades ed. by Fan Zhai |
| title_full_unstemmed | From growth to convergence Asia's next two decades ed. by Fan Zhai |
| title_short | From growth to convergence |
| title_sort | from growth to convergence asia s next two decades |
| title_sub | Asia's next two decades |
| topic | Economic development / Asia Asien stw Außenwirtschaft stw Entwicklung stw Entwicklungskonvergenz stw Handelsregionalismus stw Welt stw Wirtschaftsintegration stw Wirtschaftswachstum stw Wirtschaft Wirtschaftsentwicklung Economic development Asia Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd |
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